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iPad 'slightly cannibalizing' Apple's own low-end MacBooks - report

post #1 of 101
Thread Starter 
Strong sales of the iPad are expected to have a "slight" negative impact on Mac sales, particularly on the low-end notebook models from Apple, supply chain sources have indicated.

Analyst Shaw Wu with Kaufman Bros. said in a note to investors Monday morning that checks with suppliers have revealed that the iPad availability is better than expected. This boost in supplies is said to be due to improved availability of screens.

However, he said overseas suppliers have also indicated that the iPad appears to be "slightly cannibalizing" low-end MacBook sales. Otherwise, Apple is poised for a strong quarter in Mac sales, with numbers indicating the company could sell a record 3.8 million in the September quarter.

Wu has adjusted his sales figures accordingly, and now expects iPad sales to blow past the Mac. He has forecast Apple to sell 5.7 million iPads in the September quarter, up from his previous prediction of 3.6 million. And he has also slightly reduced his expected Mac sales to 3.8 million, down from 3.9 million, due to the apparent cannibalization of low-end MacBooks.

Last week, Morgan Stanley said it believes the iPad has consumed as much as 25 percent of notebook PC sales since Apple's touchscreen tablet was introduced in April. Year-over-year sales of notebooks have seen a sharp decline in recent months.

But previous reports suggested that the iPad was not cannibalizing Apple's own Mac sales, as shipments continue to grow. And even with Wu's reduced prediction for September Mac sales, Apple is still on pace for a record quarter, even with supposed "cannibalization." This as notebook sales in the rest of the market have declined.

Wu also expects Apple to sell a record 11.5 million iPhones in the quarter, along with 9.5 million iPods. He also increased his gross margin prediction to 37.5 percent, up from 37.2 percent, due to favorable component costs.

Kaufman Bros. has increased its 12-month price target for AAPL stock to $374, up from $350.
post #2 of 101
I believe that Apple is making OSX 100% finger friendly and that it will soon discontinue the wifi only ipad. Next I believe that Apple will release ipads that are as technically strong as the macbook. It is inevitable IMHO. Apple will turn the macbook into a slate. I can feel it. Then the pro models will get skated. IMHO!!! But what the hell do I know?
post #3 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

I believe that Apple is making OSX 100% finger friendly and that it will soon discontinue the wifi only ipad. Next I believe that Apple will release ipads that are as technically strong as the macbook. It is inevitable IMHO. Apple will turn the macbook into a slate. I can feel it. Then the pro models will get skated. IMHO!!! But what the hell do I know?

You're getting warmer. Very warm, actually.
post #4 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

But what the hell do I know?

You know that you like the iPad. DELETED
post #5 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

I believe that Apple is making OSX 100% finger friendly and that it will soon discontinue the wifi only ipad. Next I believe that Apple will release ipads that are as technically strong as the macbook. It is inevitable IMHO. Apple will turn the macbook into a slate. I can feel it. Then the pro models will get skated. IMHO!!! But what the hell do I know?

You're talking very, very long term. Apple aren't planning to drop OSX like it's some evil scheme. Most traditional computing processes need a full operating system with precise and tactile input - maybe OS XI will start to show a fusion of touch and traditional OS, but it's all in the realms of the future, not short term plans.

I think some sort of touch capability may be introduced to the laptop range, this would be extremely useful for some limited tasks, but it's not ready to replace the keyboard and trackpad/mouse just yet...

Until full tactile feedback is somehow created on a touch screen keyboard, the keyboard is essential for any serious data input/typing. That's quite a way off just yet...
post #6 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by nkhm View Post


I think some sort of touch capability may be introduced to the laptop range, this would be extremely useful for some limited tasks, but it's not ready to replace the keyboard and trackpad/mouse just yet...



What is your opinion of using an iPad with a dock and keyboard?

It always struck me that without a mouse for positioning a cursor, it would be a total PITA. It is bad enough moving your entire arm a couple of inches to grab the mouse on a regular computer. Keyboard shortcuts are available for many common tasks on real computers, making this unnecessary for users who know what they are doing.

But with the iPad, you need to move your entire arm, lifting it up into the air, reaching forward to touch the elevated (hopefully, eye level) screen. I can't imagine that is anything other than a horrible user experience.
post #7 of 101
In order for the iPad to remain a viable handheld device it needs to avoid the trap of trying to be all things to all people. I don't doubt that in time the iPad will become more powerful, capable of doing more, etc. but the basic concept of a very light, easy to transport device cannot be altered.

There is a way around this, however. Make a very nimble portable device with limited functionality similar to the iPad but also offer a docking option that provides the functionality of current laptops. The dock could, for example, provide far more storage and connectivity. In other words, use the CPU in the iPad as the basis for a device that is either exceedingly portable, if limited, or tied to a sophisticated docking element that transforms the device basically into a desktop unit. To make this viable, though, the processing power in the iPad needs to be far better than what is possible at this time. That's a few years away.

In regards to MacBook sales and the iPad, my theory is that Mac sales will not suffer as much as one might imagine because the iPad will help win over converts to Apple. Some will buy an iPad instead of a MacBook but then there are others who would not have considered an Apple computer who maybe spend $500 on an iPad and enjoy using it so much that when they need a more powerful computer, they put Apple products on their shopping list. It's other computer makers who need to worry.
post #8 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

I believe that Apple is making OSX 100% finger friendly and that it will soon discontinue the wifi only ipad. Next I believe that Apple will release ipads that are as technically strong as the macbook. It is inevitable IMHO. Apple will turn the macbook into a slate. I can feel it. Then the pro models will get skated. IMHO!!! But what the hell do I know?

This is a guess which will never happen.The i pad is nice to hold and use but it will never replace the MBP line.Think about it
post #9 of 101
I'd love to see a MacBook equivalent iPad running full OS X. Granted OS X would need to be updated to support a proper multi-touch interface, but I'd be very surprised if Apple didn't already have something already on the shelf ready to go.

I agree that we're a good few years off seeing tablet style devices overtaking the MBP lineup, but I very much see the boundaries between the MB and iPad blurring to the point where the MB could be done away with.
post #10 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by Newtron View Post

What is your opinion of using an iPad with a dock and keyboard?

It always struck me that without a mouse for positioning a cursor, it would be a total PITA. It is bad enough moving your entire arm a couple of inches to grab the mouse on a regular computer. Keyboard shortcuts are available for many common tasks on real computers, making this unnecessary for users who know what they are doing.

But with the iPad, you need to move your entire arm, lifting it up into the air, reaching forward to touch the elevated (hopefully, eye level) screen. I can't imagine that is anything other than a horrible user experience.

Using the pad with a dock and keyboard is pointless - just use your desktop, if yr in need of a proper keyboard, you're also in need of a little processing power.

If you think moving you arm a couple of inches to move your mouse is too much to ask, I'd seriously worry about your health - it's not exactly the most taxing of things!

The iPad is a great user experience. In the old days people had these things called writing pads, and they'd use their pen - often moving the pen around and having to lift their arm as they wrote. Imagine that, but without the pen... It's a great, very comfortable user experience. Keyboard shortcuts are available, so are touch gestures, neither replace the need for a keyboard to type a few thousand lines of code!
post #11 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpinDrift View Post

I'd love to see a MacBook equivalent iPad running full OS X. Granted OS X would need to be updated to support a proper multi-touch interface, but I'd be very surprised if Apple didn't already have something already on the shelf ready to go.

I agree that we're a good few years off seeing tablet style devices overtaking the MBP lineup, but I very much see the boundaries between the MB and iPad blurring to the point where the MB could be done away with.

osx being fully finger friendly? doubtful. Mac OS X will evolve as being finger compatible, but what your going to see is app/application pairings, instead of 'appifying' mac applications.

That's why I don't think you'll ever see an 'iPad environment' on a macbook. They'd rather have you move to a iMac/iPad combo than try to give you an OSX environment on a 'pad'. They are selling hardware, and software. It makes more sense to start seeing a 'home base' caching and backing up for your iPad, than it is to make your iMac (which is closer to an iPad than a Macbook IMO.

So, look for Pages for iPad being a 'lite' version of Pages for Mac. See application developers develop input and viewing tools for iOS, but selling big apps on the Mac (I can't see Mathematica on an iPad, but I could see a mathematica 'viewer', or a simple 'input tool' for the iPad).

The key meme here is that the iPad is the perfect tool for creating and deploying widgets, thin-ish clients for connected people and organizations. For hard core crunching. a MBP will still be the tool of choice for mobile people.

As for MacBooks... I see that as the 'I dunno' system, that will be the platform that will evolve to be more MBP (power), but likely to a an 11" diagonal. to pair up with MacPro users who want iPad like portability, with OSX power.

Investment wise... Apple is best served with
iMac
MBP 13 15 17
MB 11
Mac Mini Server
Mac Pro
TrackPad
====
appleTV (with apps, airplay, and airtunes)
====
iPad 7 9
iPhone
iPod Touch
iPod Nano
====
Time Capsule & Server


That way your average home will have 2-5 devices in it for a median retail of $2500 plus apps

Get in 100,000,000 homes = 2.5TrillionUSD ;-) Not a bad 5 year plan.
post #12 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by gerald apple View Post

This is a guess which will never happen.The i pad is nice to hold and use but it will never replace the MBP line.Think about it

The iPad in it's current form won't. A little imagination maybe? Open the macbook pro to be presented with two displays, one in the bottom half, one in the top half. The lower half display presents the input model appropriate to the current function - keyboard, trackpad, midi interface controller etc. etc. I can see this being an amazing thing once full tactile feedback can be achieved.
post #13 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by nkhm View Post


If you think moving you arm a couple of inches to move your mouse is too much to ask, I'd seriously worry about your health - it's not exactly the most taxing of things!


Don't worry about my health. Instead, worry about all the wasted effort Apple put into devising the useless keyboard shortcuts utilized by us sick, lazy jerky users.

You are obviously NOT a power user. Just keep using that mouse to click icons. It is faster than learning keyboard shortcuts - for certain types of people.
post #14 of 101
In case some of you have forgotten, Apple continues to *develop* the iPad. The iPad of 3 years from now will be a little more advanced than the current model. A little imagination plus a visit from Captain Obvious, folks.
post #15 of 101
A senior Adobe product executive in a reseller conference many years ago in NYC made a singular point, in a couple of different ways:


"Kill your own children"


"Figure out what business can hurt you, and become those businesses first"



Not sue if Adobe themselves is following this advice all the time, but it is an elegant and effective way to think, and Apple I think has known this for a long time.
post #16 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by nkhm View Post

You're talking very, very long term. Apple aren't planning to drop OSX like it's some evil scheme. Most traditional computing processes need a full operating system with precise and tactile input - maybe OS XI will start to show a fusion of touch and traditional OS, but it's all in the realms of the future, not short term plans.

I think some sort of touch capability may be introduced to the laptop range, this would be extremely useful for some limited tasks, but it's not ready to replace the keyboard and trackpad/mouse just yet...

Until full tactile feedback is somehow created on a touch screen keyboard, the keyboard is essential for any serious data input/typing. That's quite a way off just yet...

If you cast your mind (and your eye) back to (the video of) Scott Forstall's first presentation of iOS (then known as iPhone OS) when the SDK was first introduced, you will notice (and he said so) that OS X and iOS share several layers in common, the only difference occurring at the top (UI) layer, viz Cocoa on the Macs and Cocoa Touch on the iOS devices.

From bottom to top, the other layers are identical:
  • CORE OS: Kernel, Memory, Processes, TCP/IP, Sockets etc
  • CORE SERVICES - SQL Lite, Location Services, Preference Settings
  • MEDIA - Animation, OpenGL, OpenAL, Audio / Video
  • COCOA TOUCH (iOS) / COCOA (OS X)

What is clearly happening and will continue is that elements of Cocoa Touch are making their way into Cocoa proper as Apple's customers become used to the idiom through their iOS devices.
post #17 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by airmanchairman View Post

... What is clearly happening and will continue is that elements of Cocoa Touch are making their way into Cocoa proper as Apple's customers become used to the idiom through their iOS devices.

Which elements of iOS/CocoaTouch have made their way into OS X/Cocoa, vs. the other way around?
post #18 of 101
iPad might be cannibalizing low end notebook sales a little, but it is bolstering iMac sales with it's halo effect. IPad's strengths are in lightweight convenient consumption tasks, and not in doing most real productivity tasks. A proper notebook still does far better at those, and a proper desktop even more so. The combination of an iPad and a Mac is best... and if you don't need to do your heavy lifting on the move, then an iPad + iMac is a compelling combination. The important point is that with this combination of options, Apple addresses a wider set of users than with desktops or notebooks alone. No one product ideally suits all users, no matter how computationally powerful it may get in the next few years. Low end Mac notebooks might be selling a little less, but they are still selling to users that need them. Overall Apple's market sales have grown substantially.
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post #19 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by Programmer View Post

IPad's strengths are in lightweight convenient consumption tasks, and not in doing most real productivity tasks. A proper notebook still does far better at those,

Hell, a modern netbook still does far better at those, for less than half the price.
post #20 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by Programmer View Post

iPad might be cannibalizing low end notebook sales a little, but it is bolstering iMac sales with it's halo effect. IPad's strengths are in lightweight convenient consumption tasks, and not in doing most real productivity tasks. A proper notebook still does far better at those, and a proper desktop even more so. The combination of an iPad and a Mac is best... and if you don't need to do your heavy lifting on the move, then an iPad + iMac is a compelling combination. The important point is that with this combination of options, Apple addresses a wider set of users than with desktops or notebooks alone. No one product ideally suits all users, no matter how computationally powerful it may get in the next few years. Low end Mac notebooks might be selling a little less, but they are still selling to users that need them. Overall Apple's market sales have grown substantially.

The best part is that the iPad is so affordable meaning you don't have to choose one over another. Owning an iPad plus any one of a MacBook, Mac Pro, iMac, Mac Mini, is viable for most budgets.

If portability and power are important, go iPad+MacBook, otherwise use the iPad for portable scenarios and a desktop, be it iMac, Mac Mini or Mac Pro, to do work that requires power.

You can combine an iPad with a PC but once you see how well Apple products work, there is a likelihood that many will consider an all-Apple set-up.
post #21 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

I believe that Apple is making OSX 100% finger friendly and that it will soon discontinue the wifi only ipad. Next I believe that Apple will release ipads that are as technically strong as the macbook. It is inevitable IMHO. Apple will turn the macbook into a slate. I can feel it. Then the pro models will get skated. IMHO!!! But what the hell do I know?

Well, given that there is zero evidence to support your conjecture, I would say, not much at all.

Some number of people will give up traditional desktop/notebook computers (desktops) for tablets. Input devices for desktops may, over time, switch from physical keyboards/mice to a touch device that works as a virtual keyboard, trackpad, custom input device, but the separation of input and display on desktops will remain, as will the distinction between desktops and tablets.

All of these "conspiracy theories" regarding the demise of OS X, and traditional desktop operating systems generally, all depend on one particular assumption, applied in various directions. That assumption is that progress will cease in one area while it proceeds at a rapid rate in another. Progress will cease in desktop CPU development while development of tablet CPUs leaps ahead. Progress in desktop operating systems will cease while mobile operating system development advances at breakneck speed. Progress in desktop software will halt while tablet based software will gain the ability to do everything today's desktop software can. And so on, and so on.

Of course, all these assumptions are pretty ridiculous when they are exposed. Desktop hardware, operating systems and software will advance at the same or greater pace as their tablet counterparts. In 10 years, desktop systems and software will be as, or more, advanced beyond today's systems as today's systems are advanced beyond those of 10 years ago. Just as people do things today that weren't possible 10 years ago, in 10 years they will do things that aren't possible today. Desktop systems will continue to provide orders of magnitude greater computing power, and the power of desktop software and the purposes to which it is put will grow likewise, and there will always be a significant gap between what these systems are capable of and what tablets can do.
post #22 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

I believe that Apple is making OSX 100% finger friendly and that it will soon discontinue the wifi only ipad. Next I believe that Apple will release ipads that are as technically strong as the macbook. It is inevitable IMHO. Apple will turn the macbook into a slate. I can feel it. Then the pro models will get skated. IMHO!!! But what the hell do I know?

I suspect we'll see a hybrid of OS X and iOS -- with elements migrating between the two.

There some things that need to be resolved to make the UEX consistent:

1) allow separation of position/action on Touch UI, similar to point/click with a mouse
-- this is especially important when the touch screen is separate from the display screen, e.g. AppleTV.
2) allow sharing/movement/separation across multiple devices
-- drag and drop between your Mac and your iPad
-- game on ATV, game controls (player'ls hand) on iPad/iPhone
-- movie index/drill-down/selection for ATV on iPad
-- search/surf/kb entry on iPad, with results displayed on iPad and ATV.
3) seemless remote desktop between devices (both directions)
4) universal apps/widgets, and their data, across devices
5) share peripherals across devices (wired and wireless)
-- why shouldn't you be able to use an iPad as a Mac tablet input device?
-- why can't a Mac screen be used as an auxilliary screen for an iPad?
-- why can't I use my [iPhone] camera on my iPad?
-- why can''t I use the virtual kb on my iPad in conjucntion with a BT barcode scanner?
6) when we can't adjust the window size, we must have an option to refolw the content when zooming


7) exploit/enhance virtual kb

I separated the last, because it may be the most important as it involves human adaption and attitude as well as technology.

Consider how the typewriter kb has evolved over the last 160 years:
-- originally, you had to press a key hard and fast enough for it to travel several inches and mechanically lift a metal typebar to strike the ribbon with enough force to "print" an image of a character on the paper.
-- over the years, this evolved, to require less travel and force
-- with the advent of the electric typewriter, the travel and force were provided by the machine, instead of the fingers. *
-- even computer kbs of a few years ago, still required significant movement and pressure (Apple's Krumb Katcher Keyboard)
-- with today's kbs it takes less pressure to press the key, but more muscle tension to hover over the keys

* When IBM released the Selectric typewriter in the 1960s, a story circulated that full-figured typists made more errors than others...



The point of all this is typing speeds have increased as the keyboard has been improved and we have adapted to it!

I believe that we are beginning a new stage in the evolution of the kb: the virtual kb.

It's already happening! If we take the proper attitude and adapt, we can exploit this advancement!

Those of us who insist that we need a "proper keyboard" to be productive would be wise to remember the "proper keyboards" of 10, or even 5, years ago.


Sent from my iPad.

.
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post #23 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by Newtron View Post

Hell, a modern netbook still does far better at those, for less than half the price.

How many netbooks are there available with 10 hours of battery life? How many weigh significantly less than two pounds? How many provide an interface that is perfect for browsing? How many allow for a gaming interface that is half as much fun as what the iPad offers? Inexpensive quality games abound and are incredibly easy to acquire and install. As an e-reader, the iPad makes sense. Netbooks? Not so much.

The netbook is just a shunken laptop and apart from the convenience of carrying around a smaller, ligher laptop, does absolutely everything worse than a regular laptop.

The iPad is better suited to certain activities and if those activities are what you need a product to do, it's a far better option than a netbook.
post #24 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

Desktop systems will continue to provide orders of magnitude greater computing power, and the power of desktop software and the purposes to which it is put will grow likewise, and there will always be a significant gap between what these systems are capable of and what tablets can do.

I predict the death of the desktop.

I predict the rise of the home server, with easy to use input and output devices scattered throughout the house.

I think that the iPad as a tethered adjunct to another specific computer is a limited vision. I think that such devices will be of varying strengths and configurations, able to connect easily to whatever server is desired.

At home, I think people will pick up a tablet to retreive photos and periodicals from their home cloud or a bigger cloud, and that they will use accessory keyboards and mice and screens in various locations, depending upon convenience and purpose.

If they want a recipe, they can use the little POS waterproof screen in the kitchen. If they want to input a major recipe, they will sit at the desk that has a keyboard, mouse and screen. If they want to watch home movies, they will either lay in bed with their handleld tablet screen, or if they have the hardware, watch it projected onto the wall, or on a TV with client software, or wherever they feel like it.

I predict the death of the "computer" as a machine sitting on a desk, and the rise of the "home computer" as a box in the cellar like your water heater.
post #25 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by thrang View Post

A senior Adobe product executive in a reseller conference many years ago in NYC made a singular point, in a couple of different ways:


"Kill your own children"


"Figure out what business can hurt you, and become those businesses first"



Not sue if Adobe themselves is following this advice all the time, but it is an elegant and effective way to think, and Apple I think has known this for a long time.

... Business strategy ala Pogo: We have met the competition, and they are us!

.
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post #26 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by Newtron View Post

I predict the death of the desktop.

Well, now I know I'm right. If you agreed with me, I'd have had to reexamine my entire viewpoint on this.
post #27 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

Which elements of iOS/CocoaTouch have made their way into OS X/Cocoa, vs. the other way around?

Location services, pinch/zoom and other multitouch gestures... For starters.

I don't know if the recent streaming media player/QuickTime enhancements were developed on OS X or iOS, or jointly.... i suspect, mostly, iOS.

.
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post #28 of 101
It's also possible that people aren't buying the low-end MacBook because of underwhelming specifications, glossy screen, the white color, etc. etc.
post #29 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Location services, pinch/zoom and other multitouch gestures... For starters.

I don't know if the recent streaming media player/QuickTime enhancements were developed on OS X or iOS, or jointly.... i suspect, mostly, iOS.

.

Well, most of those things started in some form on OS X. That they made their way to iOS, were enhanced, and made their way back, points more to OS X and iOS cross pollinating each other than that technologies are developed first for iOS then trickle back. If anything, the bulk of the pollen has come from OS X.
post #30 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Location services, pinch/zoom and other multitouch gestures... For starters.

I don't know if the recent streaming media player/QuickTime enhancements were developed on OS X or iOS, or jointly.... i suspect, mostly, iOS.

.

I seem to recall Apple had stating that QuickTime Xs engine was first redesigned for iPhone OS and then later brought to Snow Leopard, with a new UI of course.
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post #31 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

Well, given that there is zero evidence to support your conjecture, I would say, not much at all.

Some number of people will give up traditional desktop/notebook computers (desktops) for tablets. Input devices for desktops may, over time, switch from physical keyboards/mice to a touch device that works as a virtual keyboard, trackpad, custom input device, but the separation of input and display on desktops will remain, as will the distinction between desktops and tablets.

All of these "conspiracy theories" regarding the demise of OS X, and traditional desktop operating systems generally, all depend on one particular assumption, applied in various directions. That assumption is that progress will cease in one area while it proceeds at a rapid rate in another. Progress will cease in desktop CPU development while development of tablet CPUs leaps ahead. Progress in desktop operating systems will cease while mobile operating system development advances at breakneck speed. Progress in desktop software will halt while tablet based software will gain the ability to do everything today's desktop software can. And so on, and so on.

Of course, all these assumptions are pretty ridiculous when they are exposed. Desktop hardware, operating systems and software will advance at the same or greater pace as their tablet counterparts. In 10 years, desktop systems and software will be as, or more, advanced beyond today's systems as today's systems are advanced beyond those of 10 years ago. Just as people do things today that weren't possible 10 years ago, in 10 years they will do things that aren't possible today. Desktop systems will continue to provide orders of magnitude greater computing power, and the power of desktop software and the purposes to which it is put will grow likewise, and there will always be a significant gap between what these systems are capable of and what tablets can do.


What you say is largely true...

But, the focus is shifting.

In a few years the install base of mobile touch computers (be they phones or tablets) will out number other, traditional, computers (floortops, desktops, laptops).

The majority of the population will satisfy their computing needs with a phone or a tablet -- for them, today's computers will not be a factor in their life.

.
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post #32 of 101
Yeah..........Photoshop on a netbook rocks!


Quote:
Originally Posted by Newtron View Post

Hell, a modern netbook still does far better at those, for less than half the price.
post #33 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by Newtron View Post

I predict the death of the desktop.

I predict the rise of the home server, with easy to use input and output devices scattered throughout the house.

I think that the iPad as a tethered adjunct to another specific computer is a limited vision. I think that such devices will be of varying strengths and configurations, able to connect easily to whatever server is desired.

At home, I think people will pick up a tablet to retreive photos and periodicals from their home cloud or a bigger cloud, and that they will use accessory keyboards and mice and screens in various locations, depending upon convenience and purpose.

If they want a recipe, they can use the little POS waterproof screen in the kitchen. If they want to input a major recipe, they will sit at the desk that has a keyboard, mouse and screen. If they want to watch home movies, they will either lay in bed with their handleld tablet screen, or if they have the hardware, watch it projected onto the wall, or on a TV with client software, or wherever they feel like it.

I predict the death of the "computer" as a machine sitting on a desk, and the rise of the "home computer" as a box in the cellar like your water heater.

People want simplicity and less clutter not a more complex mess of bits and pieces scattered around the house. Don't forget that the cost of storage is getting progressively lower which begs the question, why would you pay for a service to store your data when you can do it inexpensively in the privacy of your own home.

Don't underestimate the appeal of owning a fully functioning computer. Some of us like it that way.

You are correct in implying that big changes will happen eventually but I don't see the value of your vision. I doubt many consumers share your interest in a computer system model as you outline it. If consumers don't want it, certainly don't gain anything from it, it will not happen.
post #34 of 101
Yes Quicktime X was originally developed for the iPhone and then ported to OS X.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

I don't know if the recent streaming media player/QuickTime enhancements were developed on OS X or iOS, or jointly.... i suspect, mostly, iOS.

.
post #35 of 101
So do those of you who've been screaming for Apple to lower the low-end MacBook prices now understand why they don't do this?
Money, meet rat hole.
post #36 of 101
What you have to understand is that things that are going from iOS back to OS X are completely rewritten code. The concepts come from OS X because OS X was first. But the code being written for iOS is largely new.

Quiktime X is a completely new Quicktime that was originally for the iPhone and ported to Mac OS X.

Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

Well, most of those things started in some form on OS X. That they made their way to iOS, were enhanced, and made their way back, points more to OS X and iOS cross pollinating each other than that technologies are developed first for iOS then trickle back. If anything, the bulk of the pollen has come from OS X.
post #37 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by GQB View Post

So do those of you who've been screaming for Apple to lower the low-end MacBook prices now understand why they don't do this?
Money, meet rat hole.

If this is true, then I can see Apple lowering the price of their MacBook sooner rather than later to increase overall profit of this machine.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #38 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

What you say is largely true...

But, the focus is shifting.

In a few years the install base of mobile touch computers (be they phones or tablets) will out number other, traditional, computers (floortops, desktops, laptops).

The majority of the population will satisfy their computing needs with a phone or a tablet -- for them, today's computers will not be a factor in their life.

.

I agree with you to some extent, although, I'm not willing to say it will be a majority, or in what time-frame this will happen. Some number will give up traditional desktops (at least at home) but, whether it will be a majority or not is unclear.
post #39 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

What you have to understand is that things that are going from iOS back to OS X are completely rewritten code. The concepts come from OS X because OS X was first. But the code being written for iOS is largely new.

Quiktime X is a completely new Quicktime that was originally for the iPhone and ported to Mac OS X.

Right, but there are new technologies being developed for OS X today (GCD, for example) that will eventually make their way to iOS. What's going on here is cross pollination, not the ascendancy of iOS over OS X.
post #40 of 101
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goldenclaw View Post

It's also possible that people aren't buying the low-end MacBook because of underwhelming specifications, glossy screen, the white color, etc. etc.

That is heresy.
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