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Verizon iPhone would hurt AT&T less than expected - report

post #1 of 73
Thread Starter 
A new survey of iPhone owners, which revealed that 23% of AT&T's iPhone owners want to switch to Verizon, alleviates fears about AT&T's stability after it loses U.S. iPhone exclusivity.

As a result of its survey of AT&T iPhone owners, Credit Suisse raised its price target for the telecom operator's stock from $27 to $35, BusinessInsider reports.

According to the report, 23% would switch to Verizon if "given the chance;" 3 percent would switch to Sprint and just 2 percent would switch to T-Mobile. 63 percent would stay with AT&T.

By combining data from the survey with current subscription rates, Credit Suisse calculated that 1.4 million of AT&T's iPhone subscribers are at risk of switching to Verizon. According to Credit Suisse, the estimate, which counts for only a small percentage of AT&T's subscriber base, would have less of an impact on AT&T's bottom line than previously expected.

Image: Credit Suisse

The study also revealed that iPhone owners are less satisfied than other customers with AT&T. 51 percent of AT&T's total customers are satisfied and have no plans to change carriers, compared to 41 percent of AT&T iPhone owners. 18 percent of iPhone owners plan to leave AT&T when their contract expires, but only 9 percent of AT&T's total subscriber base plan to leave after their contract. 3 percent of iPhone owners would break their contracts, compared to just 1 percent of the total.

Image: Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse's figures assume a launch date of February 15, 2011 for a Verizon iPhone. At the beginning of the year, Credit Suisse placed the likelihood of AT&T keeping the iPhone's exclusivity in 2010 at 75 percent. Assuming a February 2011 launch, Credit Suisse believes Verizon could meet "pent up demand" within the first year of the iPhone's availability on Verizon.

Recent rumors point to a January 2011 launch for a CDMA iPhone on Verizon. In August, Shaw Wu with Kaufman Bros. said Verizon and Apple are in talks over the iPhone, but warned that a partnership could come as late as 2012.
post #2 of 73
So much for the "Once the iPhone goes to Verizon, AT&T is doomed!"
post #3 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by umrk View Post

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2031 : after a second unsuccessful liver transplantation, Steve Jobs dies. Like Prometheus (who, according to ancient Greek Mythology, was condemned to have his liver perpetullay destroyed and then regenerated, for having stolen the fire from the Olympus, and having given it to the human), Steve Jobs, after having given the Mac to the human, therefore had similar destiny.

I, umrk, simple mortal, hereby testify in the front of Heaven that this is the true, complete and unaltered record of the prophecy that the Orbe of time transmitted to my iPad on the Patmos island (Sorry, no, I was unable to trace back the IP address of the sender ...). May Heaven grant me to live long enough to see the fulfilment of this prophecy !!!!

Copy and paste huh?

Edit: Accidentally quoted the whole thing. So I just took out a few parts to make this post shorter.
post #4 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgl323 View Post

Copy and paste huh?

\
post #5 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by umrk View Post

2030 : Apple reinvents the religion : after a carreer as a business man & a politician, Steve Jobs reaches the final (and probably the most successful) accomplishment of his life in being a religious leader. Flying throughout the world with his Gulfstream, he preaches successfully Zen Buddhism in climate of religious fervor which cannot be described, and manages to convert very unlikely disciples (such as Arnold Schwarzenegger & Larry Ellison (who decides to give his entire fortune to charity funds, and to spend the rest of his life in the street of San Francisco as a beggar)).

Good to know he is still going to pollute the Earth even 20 years from now.
post #6 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgl323 View Post

So much for the "Once the iPhone goes to Verizon, AT&T is doomed!"

No, haven't you heard? Apple is Doomed™ ... The phone wars are over, Apple and iOS lost, Android won. It's too little, too late. Apple missed the Verizon boat. Maybe their best hope is to ditch iOS and come out with Android phones and tablets, people are abandoning Apple and AT&T in droves.
post #7 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by emulator View Post

Good to know he is still going to pollute the Earth even 20 years from now.

Don't worry, it will be nothing compared to all the garbage being churned out by other technology companies, and carbon emissions from consumer and business air travel and other executive jets.

Just like Apple waste is nothing compared to all the landfill generated by all the other technology and accessory companies around the world.
post #8 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by umrk View Post

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I, umrk, simple mortal, hereby testify in the front of Heaven that this is the true, complete and unaltered record of the prophecy that the Orbe of time transmitted to my iPad on the Patmos island (Sorry, no, I was unable to trace back the IP address of the sender ...). May Heaven grant me to live long enough to see the fulfilment of this prophecy !!!!

You forgot that Steve Jobs will personally liase with representatives from Nibiru as well as the space aliens that visited the Mayans, give them many units of iPad 3, and hence single-handedly stop the 2012 apocalypse. Said aliens will be so impressed with "pinch-and-zoom" and other multi-touch gestures, that they will give humans the technology for clean, unlimited fuel, and faster-than-light travel. The only gift required from humankind is the sacrifice of our first-borns, which will be conveniently carried out by the iAltar sacrificial device made by Apple. It will be "simply magical", "awesome" and "completely seamless".
post #9 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgl323 View Post

So much for the "Once the iPhone goes to Verizon, AT&T is doomed!"

Not at all, but it does undercut the argument that once the iPhone goes to Verizon Android is doomed.
post #10 of 73
Only 23% would switch to Verizon because they'd have to pay out the ass to get out of their 2 year contracts...
post #11 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Superbass View Post

Only 23% would switch to Verizon because they'd have to pay out the ass to get out of their 2 year contracts...

Not entirely true. Assuming they keep the same pricing structure, it would be cheaper for me to cancel my existing contract and sign with Verizon than to upgrade on AT&T, since they want to charge me a rediculous extra $200 dollars since I missed their early upgrade program by a lousy 13 days.
post #12 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by grking View Post

Not at all, but it does undercut the argument that once the iPhone goes to Verizon Android is doomed.

How so? This is a poll of people to whom Android is unavailable: ATT customers.
post #13 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Superbass View Post

Only 23% would switch to Verizon because they'd have to pay out the ass to get out of their 2 year contracts...

That was my thought as well. The hardware is one thing, but there are significant transaction cost too.

I don't know what the question was. I don't know if the question included a reference to cancellation fees or not. I don;t know what percentage of respondents were past their contractual commitment period.

Without this info, all we can do is guess about the significance of the answers.
post #14 of 73
They should have asked questions about why people would switch and what would change their mind - such as improved coverage - or higher speeds - or unlimited data at a reasonable price - or shared family data plan like they have for text and voice.
post #15 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgl323 View Post

So much for the "Once the iPhone goes to Verizon, AT&T is doomed!"

Just like every "widespread" issue reported and discussed to death on this and the other Apple centric forums the "at&t's network sucks!" mantra turns out to be less than the trolls and forum post counters portrayed it to be. Just like almost all issues, forums like AppleInsider amplify the negative, trolls inflate the effects, and the perennially stressed cry like babies.

Name one supposed widespread, deal killing, Apple dooming issue that really was. From antenna-gate to exploding iPods, to overheating iPads, to matte screens, to yellow tinged screens, to Android devices, to you name it. Nothing is as it was reported and trolled to be. The FUD flows like champagne around here. The hand wringing and crying, the emails to Jobs to fix whatever, the blathering, the pontificating is as thick as a peanut butter and banana sandwich.

Losers always post about how sad the latest kerfuffle is. What really is sad is the state of forums like this one.
post #16 of 73
Sounds like the 23% intended switches are buying Verizon's marketing. Verizon's technical capacity to handle the iPhone has never been tested. AT&T's problems have certainly given them a head's up, but their network as of today has not be pushed by the level of activity AT&T has had to contend with.

I confidently predict Verizon will have substantial bandwidth problems in some markets, especially as the iPhone use (and other smart phones) increases.
post #17 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by waldobushman View Post

Sounds like the 23% intended switches are buying Verizon's marketing. Verizon's technical capacity to handle the iPhone has never been tested. AT&T's problems have certainly given them a head's up, but their network as of today has not be pushed by the level of activity AT&T has had to contend with.

I confidently predict Verizon will have substantial bandwidth problems in some markets, especially as the iPhone use (and other smart phones) increases.

I wonder what improvement one might see if AT&T network had 23% less to deal with?

First, on the network as a whole... Second, the trouble spots of CA and NY?\

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post #18 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by waldobushman View Post

Sounds like the 23% intended switches are buying Verizon's marketing. Verizon's technical capacity to handle the iPhone has never been tested. AT&T's problems have certainly given them a head's up, but their network as of today has not be pushed by the level of activity AT&T has had to contend with.

I confidently predict Verizon will have substantial bandwidth problems in some markets, especially as the iPhone use (and other smart phones) increases.

Did you not read the report that VZW and even lowly Sprint handled more data than ATT last year? So much for VZWs network not being tested.
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post #19 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgl323 View Post

So much for the "Once the iPhone goes to Verizon, AT&T is doomed!"

I agree! I always thought that there would so many switchers that it would really hurt AT&T...But it seems that with all the complaining about their service maybe it was just the vocal minority.

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post #20 of 73
There is another group of people they didn't count. Hold outs who are neither under contract or upgraded their iPhones for a new contract in the hopes that if they hold out a few more months, they'll be able to jump ships without contract/early termination issues.
post #21 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

Did you not read the report that VZW and even lowly Sprint handled more data than ATT last year? So much for VZWs network not being tested.

Source?
post #22 of 73
Quote:
Steve Ballmer is fired.

Prophecy is false. Steve B can't possibly last until 2015.
post #23 of 73
63% of people will stay because they don't want to pay an ETF. Remove the ETF and that number goes down to 20-30%.

How do I know? Look at all the iPhone people unsatisfied with AT&T. People are not staying because they like AT&T, they are staying because they have no choice.
post #24 of 73
"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain
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post #25 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by enjourni View Post

63% of people will stay because they don't want to pay an ETF. Remove the ETF and that number goes down to 20-30%.

How do I know? Look at all the iPhone people unsatisfied with AT&T. People are not staying because they like AT&T, they are staying because they have no choice.

I’m more satisfied with AT&T than any other carrier I’ve ever been with. I have issues, but I don’t think it’s anymore — and probably less — than other carriers in the US.

In the areas i travel I get great upload and download speeds and the use of voice and data at the same times (which is the only way I seem to make a phone call) so I won’t be switching from AT&T. Even if Verizon could retrofit simultaneous voice and data and AT&T said they would forgo the ETF fee (laugh) I still wouldn’t switch as there is no way Verizon could match AT&T’s 3G speeds.
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post #26 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackintosh View Post

What are you, some kinda ATT fanboy?

A lot (deliberately vague) of people want Verizon to get the iPhone. It's not about ATT vs Verizon and "who's number one", it's about everyone getting the iPhone and increasing the value of Apple's stock. And that will happen when the iPhone is opened up to multiple carriers in the USA. Not because ATT is "better" but because no carrier is everywhere.

So put down the pom poms, okay?

Exactly. Why does someone/something need to be doomed? A multi carrier iPhone in the U.S. will be only a good thing for Apple but it will most certainly not mean the demise of ATT, Android, etc
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post #27 of 73

Your post got me off the sidelines. Thanks for that.

After reading the linked articles, I find your (and the articles you link to) claim to be suspect. Both articles are based on the same research report, which I cannot find on the ABIresearch site to review. And the first article includes a comment by ATT which seems to be a compelling rebuttal to the report's conclusions.

So it's true that there was 1 report written that stated Verizon and Sprint handle more data traffic than ATT. However, I'm not convinced based on this single claim.
post #28 of 73
Double post sorry.
post #29 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by plovell View Post

Prophecy is false. Steve B can't possibly last until 2015.

Well actually, he could last longer than that. Because 2010 marks the 7th year that Microsoft has failed to do anything in the mobile segment, so it's likely that the board is stupid enough to let him keep going. Thing is though, revenues are up and so are profits. I'm guessing mostly because of increased sales of Office on the Mac and xBox

I'm not sure who would be able to turn that ship around after his departure though.

BTW, I love the new look on AppleInsider.
post #30 of 73
I've heard bad areas in NYC, but the DC area is just horrible. When you have service it's great! But what you may have one minute is gone the next. This is especially true when crossing any of the bridges or riding along the GW parkway. It's almost as if the Cell towers get confused on where I'm going. I'll have full bars, then none, then full bars again. This is the case with every single iPhone I've owned (3G on up to the 4). I purposely bought my iPhone 4 without renewing (paid full price - but I'll sell it when I switch) so that I could switch over to VZ as soon as possible when they get the iPhone. It's sad when my GF is talking on her 4 year old feature phone on VZ and doesn't have a single problem in the car, and I had 3 dropped calls during the same exact time.
post #31 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by charl View Post

Your post got me off the sidelines. Thanks for that.

After reading the linked articles, I find your (and the articles you link to) claim to be suspect. Both articles are based on the same research report, which I cannot find on the ABIresearch site to review. And the first article includes a comment by ATT which seems to be a compelling rebuttal to the report's conclusions.

So it's true that there was 1 report written that stated Verizon and Sprint handle more data traffic than ATT. However, I'm not convinced based on this single claim.

Here's their website http://www.abiresearch.com/home.jsp.

The first article only discussed smartphones but I think the second one has it right. Both VZW and Sprint sell a boatload of broadband cards and I would attribute that heavy data usage to those cards.
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post #32 of 73
Have been an AT&T customer for a few months now, switching because of the iPhone 4 (which I am totally satisfied with). My experience with AT&T has been great to now. Speeds are great, connection is top notch, service plans are very reasonable, ability to modify my plan on the fly... on and on.

I have nothing but good things to say about AT&T. YMMV. I suspect there are many out there like me who are happy to stay with a good carrier with great service and reasonable rates.
post #33 of 73
I am happy with AT&T. I will look at what Verizon does with their LTE service, since simultaneous voice and data is crucial for me, and how much it costs. Until then, no plans to switch.
post #34 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by hittrj01 View Post

Not entirely true. Assuming they keep the same pricing structure, it would be cheaper for me to cancel my existing contract and sign with Verizon than to upgrade on AT&T, since they want to charge me a rediculous extra $200 dollars since I missed their early upgrade program by a lousy 13 days.


How much would your ETF be? Would you still be upgrading the phone?
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post #35 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by grking View Post

Not at all, but it does undercut the argument that once the iPhone goes to Verizon Android is doomed.

Android may already be doomed. The latest "Android" phones aren't even Android phones.
post #36 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post

How much would your ETF be? Would you still be upgrading the phone?

That would mean his ETF fee is:

$175 - ($5 *

x) where x equals the number of full pay periods he’s had the contract. Either way it would be cheaper for him to to move to Verizon.
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post #37 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

No, haven't you heard? Apple is Doomed ... The phone wars are over, Apple and iOS lost, Android won. It's too little, too late. Apple missed the Verizon boat. Maybe their best hope is to ditch iOS and come out with Android phones and tablets, people are abandoning Apple and AT&T in droves.

And your proof is where exactly? What a loser fandroid. Just like the rest of the loser crowd
post #38 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by coolcat View Post

And your proof is where exactly? What a loser fandroid. Just like the rest of the loser crowd

His post was sarcastic.

PS: The Temherte slaqî really needs to get used more. How we can have internet forums without a sarcmark is beyond me. This type of mark will be common punctuation one day. Its easy to use on on a Mac: Option+1 = ¡.
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post #39 of 73
This report is literally attempting to for tell the future. Which of course is a big part of analysis. But its impossible to know at this point to know all of what is going to happen and how this will impact AT&T.

I believe if Verizon really can simply deliver clear static free calls with voice and data at the same time. Which after 3 years AT&T has not been able to do. AT&T may well see a significant amount of lost business.
post #40 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

... I belong to many forums and I always find it interesting on this forum somehow thinks it has a ratio of 50% trolls. We have other members that most of of the time they post is simply to try and get another member banned.

No, we probably have only a few percent outright trolls, although, in some threads they may easily make up 50% of the posts. Probably another few percent angry haters, who, while not strictly speaking trolls, add nothing of value to these forums.
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