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iPad, Apple's 'Mac of the masses,' predicted to sell 21M in 2011

post #1 of 116
Thread Starter 
One prominent Wall Street analyst has increased is forecast for iPad sales in 2011 to 21 million, citing expansion of the device's availability, as well as rapid adoption in the enterprise sector.

Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said Thursday he believes the the iPad is poised to outsell the Mac in 2011. He had previously called for 14.5 million iPads to be sold in 2011, but now sees Apple selling 21 million.

"We believe the iPad represents a meaningful product category for Apple as a secondary computing device for those who already have a primary computer, a primary device for those who could not previously afford a Mac, and the first Apple product that will be a success in the enterprise," he wrote. "We see the iPad as the Mac for the masses."

His prediction is based on three factors: increased supply and expanded distribution channels, international rollout and adoption in price-sensitive markets, and uptake in the enterprise sector.

Munster said that increased presence of the iPad in retail stores will help to drive sales. Best Buy recently announced that it will expand iPad sales to all its U.S. stores this week, while Target is rumored to sell the device beginning next month.

Earlier this month, the iPad launched in China and 5 Latin American countries. In these "price-sensitive markets," the iPad is more likely to be used as a primary computing device by people who could not previously afford a Mac, Munster said.

Finally, he said the iPad has the potential to take the largest percentage of its sales from enterprise customers. He noted that the company revealed in June that more than 50 percent of the Fortune 100 are deploying or testing the iPad.

Munster believes Apple will control 94 percent o the worldwide tablet market in calendar year 2010, with 10.7 million of the total 11.3 million tablet sales for the year. In the future, he sees Android as the iPad's primary competition, as the next 3.0 release, codenamed "Gingerbread," is said to support tablet devices.

Piper Jaffray has increased its price target for AAPL stock to $390, with revenue estimates increased from $78.96 billion to $83.13 billion. The calendar year 2011 earnings per share estimate has also been increased from $16.87 to $17.75.
post #2 of 116
Well I love my iPad, but I also love my MacBook Pro, both fulfill a different need for me. As I commute to work which is around an hours train journey each way I find that my iPad serves as my book, newspaper, movie player, email system etc etc during the day.

When home I tend to just use my iPhone for a quick internet session or turn to my MacBook for anything else.

I'm sure there are many people like me who will continue to use the iPad as an intermdediate device.
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post #3 of 116
To contend that Apple will control 94 percent of the worldwide tablet market is a bit bullish, but I do believe the iPad will do surprising well in the enterprise market.

RIM believes this, which I'm sure is the motivating factor for their Blackpad. And I can't blame them for putting out a "me too" product. They have to protect their home turf, because if big business takes a shine to the iPad, they might look at the iPhone as a viable device as well. Then it's game over for the Blackberry.
post #4 of 116
He's probably also factoring in how rubbish other companies tablets have been so far.

The potential good contenders so far are Blackberry's offering next week - but that's running on an entirely new QNX based platform, so there aren't any applications yet, and in addition the price isn't known yet, nor the feature set.

Also HP will have a WebOS offering at some point.

And early next year the Tegra 2 based tablets with Android 3 will arrive. So far these are overpriced for the featureset, many have poor build quality. They make the iPad look like a complete bargain.
post #5 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peleas View Post

To contend that Apple will control 94 percent of the worldwide tablet market is a bit bullish, but I do believe the iPad will do surprising well in the enterprise market.

I think 94% of 2010 is perfectly reasonable. 2011 is probably much lower, at probably only 50-70%. The problem is that effectively the only tablet on the market as of today is the iPad. Once competitors come out with their products the percentage definitely will go down.
post #6 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peleas View Post

To contend that Apple will control 94 percent of the worldwide tablet market is a bit bullish, but I do believe the iPad will do surprising well in the enterprise market.

In 2010? I can see that, if not a little more. Who else is has been competing with them from April through September?

Looking at the other tablets coming to market, they seem to have equivalent price points to the iPad, not the high-volume, low-price, and low-price choices that saturate the PC market that Apple doesnt play in.

Futhermore, without the iPad having to be bought with an AT&T contract shouldnt that make it even more appealing as this is stated one reason that Android phones are selling as well as they are on in the US?
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #7 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarina View Post

I think 94% of 2010 is perfectly reasonable. 2011 is probably much lower, at probably only 50-70%. The problem is that effectively the only tablet on the market as of today is the iPad. Once competitors come out with their products the percentage definitely will go down.

I missed the 2010 reference. Thanks for pointing that out, Jarina.

For 2011, I think Apple will have about 70 to 80 percent market share. Their app store is what will really make a difference for them. Whether you're a major corporation, a small business, or an average joe, every iPad comes out of the box with the same set of apps. But when you pick and choose from what's available in the iTunes store, you have a device that is capable of so many things, and is customized for each individual's needs.

Apps is where it's at. And I don't see any other tablet device that could come close to Apple's current, and growing, selection.
post #8 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peleas View Post

To contend that Apple will control 94 percent of the worldwide tablet market is a bit bullish, but I do believe the iPad will do surprising well in the enterprise market.

RIM believes this, which I'm sure is the motivating factor for their Blackpad. And I can't blame them for putting out a "me too" product. They have to protect their home turf, because if big business takes a shine to the iPad, they might look at the iPhone as a viable device as well. Then it's game over for the Blackberry.

But RIM doesn't have the software chops like Apple. RIM can't touch the software prowess of Apple.Not by a million miles. And what about customer service? RIM has it in the celly market but a tablet?. They need security for their tablet,customization etc. Those types of factors are vitally important.RIM ain't going to have s*** with that complexity ready for game day and I don't think they will ever invest time in developing a well rounded tablet.They'll throw out a me to tablet, get some buzz, then allow it to die.
Just my 2 cents.
post #9 of 116
after using the ipad regularly this past week i am convinced that it is THE device. I also got a new kindle yesterday. you really can't compare the 2 and moving from one to the other is annoying. you want to use touchscreen out of habit and kindle doesn't do that. the kindle does its 'shimmy' when you turn the page. not critical but annoying. kindle has no backlight so you have to have decent light to read. still, the kindle text is absolutely stunning and wonderful to read when you do have decent lighting.
but the ipad makes up for that with all that it can do. it isn't ready to make me retire my macbook yet but its very close.
and i don't see anyone with a product that looks like serious competition yet.
post #10 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

One prominent Wall Street analyst has increased is forecast for iPad sales in 2011 to 21 million, citing expansion of the device's availability, as well as rapid adoption in the enterprise sector.

Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said Thursday he believes the the iPad is poised to outsell the Mac in 2011. He had previously called for 14.5 million iPads to be sold in 2011, but now sees Apple selling 21 million.

Not bad for a device being nether a Notebook nor a iPod touch and that isn't ever going to be useful to anybody.
post #11 of 116
Quote:
who could not previously afford a Mac

They still can't: an iPad is not a Mac.
post #12 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

But RIM doesn't have the software chops like Apple. RIM can't touch the software prowess of Apple.Not by a million miles. And what about customer service? RIM has it in the celly market but a tablet?. They need security for their tablet,customization etc. Those types of factors are vitally important.RIM ain't going to have s*** with that complexity ready for game day and I don't think they will ever invest time in developing a well rounded tablet.They'll throw out a me to tablet, get some buzz, then allow it to die.
Just my 2 cents.

You're totally right. And being that this Blackpad will have an entirely new OS to go with it, makes it harder for them to ever get a decent amount of apps to compete with Apple's. There is one advantage RIM has, and it's their installed base of Blackberry users. They'll be pushing the Blackpad hard in the enterprise market, just as a preemptive strike against the iPad. But in the long run? It's doubtful RIM can succeed.
post #13 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peleas View Post

You're totally right. And being that this Blackpad will have an entirely new OS to go with it, makes it harder for them to ever get a decent amount of apps to compete with Apple's. There is one advantage RIM has, and it's their installed base of Blackberry users. They'll be pushing the Blackpad hard in the enterprise market, just as a preemptive strike against the iPad. But in the long run? It's doubtful RIM can succeed.

i honestly dont' see RIM surviving unless they do something drastic (like firing everyone on design team and getting someone good).
the biggest threat could come from MS if phone 7 is any good and ports well to tablet. but they better get it in gear times a wasting.
post #14 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by lloeki View Post

They still can't: an iPad is not a Mac.

In time, you won't be able to tell the difference. THAT is the plan.
post #15 of 116
I'm just going to take a moment, inhale deeply, enjoy the fresh air of this thread before you-know-what happens to it...


Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
aaahhhhhhhhhhh





Now, down to buzinessss.

I think the estimates for iPad units are way too low.

An earlier article mentioned "Fidacaro expects Apple to sell a record 11.6 million iPhones in the fourth quarter of the company's fiscal 2010. That would be a 39 percent increase from the 8.4 million handsets the company sold in the third quarter of fiscal 2010."

And "As for the iPad, suppliers were said to have plans to build 7 million units for the current quarter, a 56 percent increase from the previous three-month frame. Fidacaro expects Apple to ship 4.75 million units int he current quarter, which would be 45 percent growth from last quarter, to reach a total of 13.4 million units in calendar 2010."

Munster says "14.5 million iPads to be sold in 2011, but now sees Apple selling 21 million."

Let's say we model that iPhone 4 is doing about say 4 million units a month, and global availability is limited, but ahead of iPad releases.

Assuming iPad production is as big a priority as iPhone 4, due to wild success of the iPad, the big issue is that the iPad rollout is behind iPhone 4 with no news of many more countries where it has not launched yet.

By late June they sold 3 million iPads total. 7 million units for the current quarter breaks down to 2.3 million per month. But we know iPad production is ramping up, and has to, if it has any chance of launching beyond to initial-launch countries, let alone have a reach equal to where Macs are sold.

Thus I believe 2011 targets will be around 3 million to 4 million a month. Assuming the iPad 2 announced in January, we could be looking at 5 million a month if they can make that much.

Even a conservative estimate of 3 million iPads a month puts the 2011 total at 36 million iPads sold. (Factor in a very, very conservative estimate of 4 million iPhones a month puts the 2011 total at 48 million sold... 3 million iPod touch a month puts the total iOS devices at 120+ million in 2011, about what they sold in total prior to 2011.

The iPad situation is highly underrated by analysts, I think. Honestly, my gut tells me we're looking at 4 million iPad, 5 million iPhone and 3.5 million iPod touch per month in 2011, bringing the total to 48 million, 60 million and 42 million respectively for 2011.
post #16 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by screamingfist View Post

i honestly dont' see RIM surviving unless they do something drastic (like firing everyone on design team and getting someone good).
the biggest threat could come from MS if phone 7 is any good and ports well to tablet. but they better get it in gear times a wasting.

I think the only way RIM has even a ghost of a chance of surviving long term is if either Nokia or Microsoft acquires it. RIM is like Palm (the original Palm of PDA fame), it had a great product idea but is unable to break out into new areas successfully either because of a lack of imagination, lack of financial heft, or a narrow talent base in the organization. Who knows really?

And even if RIM gets acquired by Nokia or MS, there's still no guarantee because the latter two are also in a downward trend that they may or may not be able to reverse.
post #17 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hattig View Post

He's probably also factoring in how rubbish other companies tablets have been so far.

The potential good contenders so far are Blackberry's offering next week - but that's running on an entirely new QNX based platform, so there aren't any applications yet, and in addition the price isn't known yet, nor the feature set....

You have to wonder when RIM got serious about tablet development. And then ask what they can come up with in MONTHS compared to YEARS Apple had. Along with mature technology to go hand in hand with the iPad.

I think calling the first Blackpad a "Me Too" product will turn out to be a gross understatement.
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post #18 of 116
With Apple's success in music players, phones, computers, and now slate computing devices I am surprised they haven't taken their iOS to the next level as an embedded OS in cars for entertainment systems and in appliances. I can see refrigerators, ovens, dishwashers, and microwaves having touch screens for input devices and making suggestions for cooking, shopping, sales on flatware and dishes etc.

Microsoft is making their way in all kinds of non-traditional markets. Ford and Microsoft's Sync is one example. Maybe that's the key - Apple doesn't want to integrate into 3rd party products but rather interface to them. Gotcha Apple.
post #19 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacTel View Post

With Apple's success in music players, phones, computers, and now slate computing devices I am surprised they haven't taken their iOS to the next level as an embedded OS in cars for entertainment systems and in appliances. I can see refrigerators, ovens, dishwashers, and microwaves having touch screens for input devices and making suggestions for cooking, shopping, sales on flatware and dishes etc.

Microsoft is making their way in all kinds of non-traditional markets. Ford and Microsoft's Sync is one example. Maybe that's the key - Apple doesn't want to integrate into 3rd party products but rather interface to them. Gotcha Apple.

Jobs won't do that, unless you buy an apple icar, apple ioven, apple iwasher, ha.
which i wouldn't mind them doing....would love a 'real' 55" apple tv and a ibrew espresso machine....
post #20 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by walshbj View Post

You have to wonder when RIM got serious about tablet development. And then ask what they can come up with in MONTHS compared to YEARS Apple had. Along with mature technology to go hand in hand with the iPad.

I think calling the first Blackpad a "Me Too" product will turn out to be a gross understatement.

RIM has to ditch the blackberry enterprise server too. hate that i have to have yet another server to manage just for those devices...
post #21 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Futhermore, without the iPad having to be bought with an AT&T contract shouldn’t that make it even more appealing as this is stated one reason that Android phones are selling as well as they are on in the US?

Off topic, Sol, but I looove your new sig ....lmao ..... reminds me, it's time to change mine, but no matter how hard I try, yours will still be tops.
PS .. For a second there, I thought I was reading a post from Newtron ... same logic and all.
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post #22 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

But RIM doesn't have the software chops like Apple. RIM can't touch the software prowess of Apple.Not by a million miles. And what about customer service? RIM has it in the celly market but a tablet?. They need security for their tablet,customization etc. Those types of factors are vitally important.RIM ain't going to have s*** with that complexity ready for game day and I don't think they will ever invest time in developing a well rounded tablet.They'll throw out a me to tablet, get some buzz, then allow it to die.
Just my 2 cents.

I tend to agree with you on this but, as Pealeas points out, this is a market that rim cannot afford to lose. Apple has gained an entry into rim's playground, the enterprise, and if Apple takes over the "enterprise" on this device, how long would it be before that spills over into the phone market?

I'm sure rim recognizes that and will put all their effort into competing, as was demonstrated by their purchase of the software (company) that is doing the OS for the tablet. Whether they're sucessful or not remains to be seen.
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post #23 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

I'm just going to take a moment, inhale deeply, enjoy the fresh air of this thread before you-know-what happens to it...


Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
aaahhhhhhhhhhh





Now, down to buzinessss.

I think the estimates for iPad units are way too low.

An earlier article mentioned "Fidacaro expects Apple to sell a record 11.6 million iPhones in the fourth quarter of the company's fiscal 2010. That would be a 39 percent increase from the 8.4 million handsets the company sold in the third quarter of fiscal 2010."

And "As for the iPad, suppliers were said to have plans to build 7 million units for the current quarter, a 56 percent increase from the previous three-month frame. Fidacaro expects Apple to ship 4.75 million units int he current quarter, which would be 45 percent growth from last quarter, to reach a total of 13.4 million units in calendar 2010."

Munster says "14.5 million iPads to be sold in 2011, but now sees Apple selling 21 million."

Let's say we model that iPhone 4 is doing about say 4 million units a month, and global availability is limited, but ahead of iPad releases.

Assuming iPad production is as big a priority as iPhone 4, due to wild success of the iPad, the big issue is that the iPad rollout is behind iPhone 4 with no news of many more countries where it has not launched yet.

By late June they sold 3 million iPads total. 7 million units for the current quarter breaks down to 2.3 million per month. But we know iPad production is ramping up, and has to, if it has any chance of launching beyond to initial-launch countries, let alone have a reach equal to where Macs are sold.

Thus I believe 2011 targets will be around 3 million to 4 million a month. Assuming the iPad 2 announced in January, we could be looking at 5 million a month if they can make that much.

Even a conservative estimate of 3 million iPads a month puts the 2011 total at 36 million iPads sold. (Factor in a very, very conservative estimate of 4 million iPhones a month puts the 2011 total at 48 million sold... 3 million iPod touch a month puts the total iOS devices at 120+ million in 2011, about what they sold in total prior to 2011.

The iPad situation is highly underrated by analysts, I think. Honestly, my gut tells me we're looking at 4 million iPad, 5 million iPhone and 3.5 million iPod touch per month in 2011, bringing the total to 48 million, 60 million and 42 million respectively for 2011.

I think your estimations are far more accurate then munster's. I am sure many families are going to have multiple iPads. After the initial "not sure what to do with this device but it looks nice" people are starting to realize how useful and handy the iPad really is. And still there is no real competition to be seen!
post #24 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by lloeki View Post

They still can't: an iPad is not a Mac.

It's a computer made by Apple .... what are you calling it, ... a Honda?
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post #25 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

Well I love my iPad, but I also love my MacBook Pro, both fulfill a different need for me. As I commute to work which is around an hours train journey each way I find that my iPad serves as my book, newspaper, movie player, email system etc etc during the day.

When home I tend to just use my iPhone for a quick internet session or turn to my MacBook for anything else.

I'm sure there are many people like me who will continue to use the iPad as an intermdediate device.

I am exactly the same and I also use a MacPro for real major jobs such as video. I can see the iPad replacing millions of PCs used only for web, games, photos and mail and I am sure Apple will extend the iPad's abilities over time to make the need for a 'parent' machine unnecessary for such people with simple needs.
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
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post #26 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

I'm just going to take a moment, inhale deeply, enjoy the fresh air of this thread before you-know-what happens to it...


Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
aaahhhhhhhhhhh





Now, down to buzinessss.

I think the estimates for iPad units are way too low.

An earlier article mentioned "Fidacaro expects Apple to sell a record 11.6 million iPhones in the fourth quarter of the company's fiscal 2010. That would be a 39 percent increase from the 8.4 million handsets the company sold in the third quarter of fiscal 2010."

And "As for the iPad, suppliers were said to have plans to build 7 million units for the current quarter, a 56 percent increase from the previous three-month frame. Fidacaro expects Apple to ship 4.75 million units int he current quarter, which would be 45 percent growth from last quarter, to reach a total of 13.4 million units in calendar 2010."

Munster says "14.5 million iPads to be sold in 2011, but now sees Apple selling 21 million."

Let's say we model that iPhone 4 is doing about say 4 million units a month, and global availability is limited, but ahead of iPad releases.

Assuming iPad production is as big a priority as iPhone 4, due to wild success of the iPad, the big issue is that the iPad rollout is behind iPhone 4 with no news of many more countries where it has not launched yet.

By late June they sold 3 million iPads total. 7 million units for the current quarter breaks down to 2.3 million per month. But we know iPad production is ramping up, and has to, if it has any chance of launching beyond to initial-launch countries, let alone have a reach equal to where Macs are sold.

Thus I believe 2011 targets will be around 3 million to 4 million a month. Assuming the iPad 2 announced in January, we could be looking at 5 million a month if they can make that much.

Even a conservative estimate of 3 million iPads a month puts the 2011 total at 36 million iPads sold. (Factor in a very, very conservative estimate of 4 million iPhones a month puts the 2011 total at 48 million sold... 3 million iPod touch a month puts the total iOS devices at 120+ million in 2011, about what they sold in total prior to 2011.

The iPad situation is highly underrated by analysts, I think. Honestly, my gut tells me we're looking at 4 million iPad, 5 million iPhone and 3.5 million iPod touch per month in 2011, bringing the total to 48 million, 60 million and 42 million respectively for 2011.

I hope you are correct and I suspect you are! In which case what is your guestimate for AAPL?
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
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post #27 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

In 2010? I can see that, if not a little more. Who else is has been competing with them from April through September?

Looking at the other tablets coming to market, they seem to have equivalent price points to the iPad, not the high-volume, low-price, and low-price choices that saturate the PC market that Apple doesnt play in.

Futhermore, without the iPad having to be bought with an AT&T contract shouldnt that make it even more appealing as this is stated one reason that Android phones are selling as well as they are on in the US?

I can see all the iPad wannabes simply fighting amongst themselves. OK the plan worked out well for the same concept in the IBM/Windows clone days but I seriously feel Apple are far enough ahead for the melee this time to be disastrous for the Android clone maker's profits.
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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post #28 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacTel View Post

With Apple's success in music players, phones, computers, and now slate computing devices I am surprised they haven't taken their iOS to the next level as an embedded OS in cars for entertainment systems and in appliances. I can see refrigerators, ovens, dishwashers, and microwaves having touch screens for input devices and making suggestions for cooking, shopping, sales on flatware and dishes etc.

Microsoft is making their way in all kinds of non-traditional markets. Ford and Microsoft's Sync is one example. Maybe that's the key - Apple doesn't want to integrate into 3rd party products but rather interface to them. Gotcha Apple.

You are surprised? I am surprised at how little you understand Apple and what drives the company, in that case. I can see a third party make a device, some software, an attachment... that will let an Apple device interface with whatever appliance you have in mind. But why would Apple would want to get into embedded computing? How dull.
post #29 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

In 2010? I can see that, if not a little more. Who else is has been competing with them from April through September?

Looking at the other tablets coming to market, they seem to have equivalent price points to the iPad, not the high-volume, low-price, and low-price choices that saturate the PC market that Apple doesnt play in.

Futhermore, without the iPad having to be bought with an AT&T contract shouldnt that make it even more appealing as this is stated one reason that Android phones are selling as well as they are on in the US?

I'm waiting to see how apps will work on each Android pad considering that it sounds as if each manufacturer will have to tinker with the engine to get apps to play nice (ie. scale) on their pad.

Maybe all of the manufacturers will play nice and share code...
na na na na na...
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post #30 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacTel View Post

I am surprised they haven't taken their iOS to the next level as an embedded OS in cars for entertainment systems and in appliances. I can see refrigerators, ovens, dishwashers, and microwaves having touch

I think what we're watching here is the unfolding of two different business models. MSFT, led by Ballmer, who has all the attributes of an old time "salesman" ... a pitchman, for lack of a better name, who wants to, as most salesman dream of doing, sell something to everyone, usually without giving much thought to the bottom line or to tomorrow's "sales". The unfortunate thing is, that the windows customer base is so large .... it generates profits almost automatically and allows that model to happen and for management to become more easily satisfied, for now at least. By the time management wakes up and starts to choose their focus points more clearly, it may be difficult to change.

Apple, otoh, has a plan in place that is slowly revealing itself to us, one step at a time. The amount of focus on Apple's part is becoming clearer everyday and is amazing to see.

As much as I love to see more product being introduced by my favorite company, Apple, I find it even more interesting to watch both business plans unfold.
See, in the record business, you can show someone your song, and they don’t copy it. In the tech business, you show somebody your idea, and they steal it. (Jimmy Iovine)
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post #31 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Even a conservative estimate of 3 million iPads a month puts the 2011 total at 36 million iPads sold. (Factor in a very, very conservative estimate of 4 million iPhones a month puts the 2011 total at 48 million sold... 3 million iPod touch a month puts the total iOS devices at 120+ million in 2011, about what they sold in total prior to 2011.

The iPad situation is highly underrated by analysts, I think. Honestly, my gut tells me we're looking at 4 million iPad, 5 million iPhone and 3.5 million iPod touch per month in 2011, bringing the total to 48 million, 60 million and 42 million respectively for 2011.

Also, I think there's at least a 50% chance that Apple is going to bring out a second, smaller iPad model starting at $399 or $349 when they refresh the iPad in early 2011, which will make it much more difficult for new competitors to take market share from iPad.
post #32 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post

You are surprised? I am surprised at how little you understand Apple and what drives the company, in that case. I can see a third party make a device, some software, an attachment... that will let an Apple device interface with whatever appliance you have in mind. But why would Apple would want to get into embedded computing? How dull.

i am surprised that it took this long for someone to be insulting....
post #33 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by Porchland View Post

Also, I think there's at least a 50% chance that Apple is going to bring out a second, smaller iPad model starting at $399 or $349 when they refresh the iPad in early 2011, which will make it much more difficult for new competitors to take market share from iPad.

IMHO it doesn't make a lot of sense to intrduce a model that will only serve to canniblize the current model at a time when they can't keep up with the current demand. It may happen at some point in the future ... but I would think that they would wait until they see some saturation point with the current model .... and that's not happening anytime soon.
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See, in the record business, you can show someone your song, and they don’t copy it. In the tech business, you show somebody your idea, and they steal it. (Jimmy Iovine)
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post #34 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

One prominent Wall Street analyst has increased is forecast for iPad sales in 2011 to 21 million, citing expansion of the device's availability, as well as rapid adoption in the enterprise sector.

Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said Thursday he believes the the iPad is poised to outsell the Mac in 2011. He had previously called for 14.5 million iPads to be sold in 2011, but now sees Apple selling 21 million.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

The iPad situation is highly underrated by analysts, I think. Honestly, my gut tells me we're looking at 4 million iPad, 5 million iPhone and 3.5 million iPod touch per month in 2011, bringing the total to 48 million, 60 million and 42 million respectively for 2011.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach View Post

I think your estimations are far more accurate then munster's. I am sure many families are going to have multiple iPads. After the initial "not sure what to do with this device but it looks nice" people are starting to realize how useful and handy the iPad really is. And still there is no real competition to be seen!


I've found these analyst estimates for iPad sales to be right on the mark... if you double them!

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"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
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"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
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post #35 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbee View Post

IMHO it doesn't make a lot of sense to intrduce a model that will only serve to canniblize the current model at a time when they can't keep up with the current demand. It may happen at some point in the future ... but I would think that they would wait until they see some saturation point with the current model .... and that's not happening anytime soon.

after using the small kindle yesterday i agree. no reason to do smaller one. i think they hit the right spot with 9.7
shave off some weight and its almost perfect.
post #36 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

I've found these analyst estimates for iPad sales to be right on the mark... if you double them!

So you're saying that the analysts did exactly a half-assed job?
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #37 of 116
Wow, there is so much wrong with this HP tablet. How many FAILs can you find?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0IiKaa8v9M PS: I also found it funny that it is being filmed with an iPhone.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #38 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peleas View Post

You're totally right. And being that this Blackpad will have an entirely new OS to go with it, makes it harder for them to ever get a decent amount of apps to compete with Apple's. There is one advantage RIM has, and it's their installed base of Blackberry users. They'll be pushing the Blackpad hard in the enterprise market, just as a preemptive strike against the iPad. But in the long run? It's doubtful RIM can succeed.

They embarrassed themselves with the Storm and Storm II, how in the world are they going bring a decent tabby to market - even with QNIX driving it? I respect QNIX which has been around for a long time and is robust, but this is analogous to building a really good foundation and then pitching a tent on top of it. They aren't currently equipped to deliver a strong ecosystem like iOS or Android, or even erm, Windows7 for that matter. They aren't staffed to do app development, or support a large app-driven operation. Their focus is more heavily towards their infrastructure, and only do what they must to make sure the devices connect and deliver.
post #39 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbee View Post

I tend to agree with you on this but, as Pealeas points out, this is a market that rim cannot afford to lose. Apple has gained an entry into rim's playground, the enterprise, and if Apple takes over the "enterprise" on this device, how long would it be before that spills over into the phone market?

I'm sure rim recognizes that and will put all their effort into competing, as was demonstrated by their purchase of the software (company) that is doing the OS for the tablet. Whether they're sucessful or not remains to be seen.

Emphasis mine!

Great points!

While well taken, the following statement doesn't go far enough:

"if Apple takes over the "enterprise" on this device, how long would it be before that spills over into the phone market?"

I believe it goes far beyond the "enterprise phone market". Let's call it the "enterprise productivity market".

The iPads are inexpensive, flexible, require little training or support-- they are expensable and expendable. They will become as second-nature as a calculator, stapler, a paper tablet or even a box of kleenex.

The iPad will become ubiquitous in the enterprise-- not as a replacement for the phone or the computer but as another tool that helps you be productive.

Here's the best part: the iPad will be the same go-to "productivity" tool at work as it is at home!

That's the battle to be won in the enterprise!


.
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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post #40 of 116
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I can see all the iPad wannabes simply fighting amongst themselves. OK the plan worked out well for the same concept in the IBM/Windows clone days but I seriously feel Apple are far enough ahead for the melee this time to be disastrous for the Android clone maker's profits.

Add to that the lead times to obtain critical parts supplies and to reserve critical production facilities-- even if you have a great product to offer, it won't matter if you can't bring it to market!

.
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
Reply
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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