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Apple stock seen approaching $430 with strong holiday lineup

post #1 of 31
Thread Starter 
Apple stock could hit $430 in the next year, propelled in the near future by an anticipated strong holiday sales season, one Wall Street analyst believes.

Brian White of Ticonderoga Securities issued an in-depth 85-page note on Apple to analysts Monday. The firm has initiated coverage of AAPL stock with a $430 12-month price target, betting that the company's "hot hand" will continue well into 2011.

"We believe Apple is still in the early stages of capitalizing on the trend toward a digital lifestyle, while transforming itself to seize large opportunities in the enterprise market, advertising (i.e. mobile, TV, etc.), "cloud computing and social networking," White wrote.

For Apple, the march to $430 begins this holiday season, White said, with one of the hottest product lineups ever, including the iPhone 4, iPad, new iPod touch, and Apple TV. He noted that over the last six years, the holiday buying season has given Apple its best stock performance in October.

Apple is seen selling 7.1 million iPads in its 2010 fiscal year, with sales growing 181 percent in 2011 to 19.9 million. In the 2012 fiscal year, he sees Apple selling 25.8 million iPads.

"We believe the most coveted gift this holiday season will be the iPad," White wrote. "Clearly, Apple is delivering experiences to consumers that were never thought possible, and in the process, reinventing our world. Additionally, the opportunity in the education, healthcare and enterprise markets remain meaningful, in our view."
post #2 of 31
This will be Apple's best quarter ever. Period
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post #3 of 31
Are Gene Munster and Brian White related???????? Or are they just comparing notes.

Anyway, Its a no brainer that APPLE looks to be going higher. Whether or not it meets any target depends on many factors such as the Economy, Job creation etc, etc, etc,.
post #4 of 31
This has to be the most bullish forecast for AAPL ever. Everything has to go absolutely right for the company over the next year for them perform this well. Not only do they need to grow EPS by at least 50%, they also need to demonstrate the prospects of being able to continue that rate of growth beyond 2011. Possible, maybe... but this does not seem to be a typically cautious analyst's report.
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post #5 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

This has to be the most bullish forecast for AAPL ever. Everything has to go absolutely right for the company over the next year for them perform this well. Not only do they need to grow EPS by at least 50%, they also need to demonstrate the prospects of being able to continue that rate of growth beyond 2011. Possible, maybe... but this does not seem to be a typically cautious analyst's report.

Last time you and I discussed this topic early 09 didn't you say it was several years away from 200?
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post #6 of 31
This report is over estimated, no one can predict where AAPL stock will be by end of 2011, I mean for sure it wont recede below $200.00 I think, but certainly saying $430.00 is not very realistic by end of 2011.
post #7 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by zindako View Post

, but certainly saying $430.00 is not very realistic by end of 2011.

can we quote you on that?
post #8 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by zindako View Post

This report is over estimated, no one can predict where AAPL stock will be by end of 2011, I mean for sure it wont recede below $200.00 I think, but certainly saying $430.00 is not very realistic by end of 2011.

It will be $327... by October 15, 2011... at 2:15 CST.

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #9 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by zindako View Post

This report is over estimated, no one can predict where AAPL stock will be by end of 2011, I mean for sure it wont recede below $200.00 I think, but certainly saying $430.00 is not very realistic by end of 2011.


ever wonder why you're poor and apple investors are rich?
post #10 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by zindako View Post

... no one can predict where AAPL stock will be by end of 2011....

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

It will be $327... by October 15, 2011... at 2:15 CST.

That was pretty funny.
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post #11 of 31
It's amazing to think that 64% of Apple's business didn't even exist before 2001.
post #12 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

This has to be the most bullish forecast for AAPL ever. Everything has to go absolutely right for the company over the next year for them perform this well. Not only do they need to grow EPS by at least 50%, they also need to demonstrate the prospects of being able to continue that rate of growth beyond 2011. Possible, maybe... but this does not seem to be a typically cautious analyst's report.

Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Last time you and I discussed this topic early 09 didn't you say it was several years away from 200?

Anything is possible, but I am inclined to agree with the good Dr here.

Mid-300s somewhere during 2011? Highly probable. Mid-400s? Wow... (Unless there is another iPhone/iPod type product on the horizon, which none of us knows about, that will propel Apple's next growth burst).

Also, righty or wrongly, there is the matter of Jobs's health and market perceptions that conflate Apple's value with his presence.
post #13 of 31
Every time an analyst pumps this stock up, the share price heads in the opposite direction in some perverse manner.

As weak as this stock has been looking over the past two weeks, you'd never know there such high expectations. With a $430 target, Apple is, like, almost $150 behind and that would take one heck of a climb. Hell, even Amazon has been smoking Apple's stock with a huge P/E and unknown Kindle sales. Apple is clearly struggling just trying to hold ground and seems to be losing at that. Granted that Apple will make a crapload of revenue this quarter but that has nothing to do with how Wall Street values this stock. The hedge funds are probably controlling every little movement of Apple stock.

$430 is a huge upgrade and Apple is solidly in the red which would seem to be unusual for most stocks, but not Apple. The economy doesn't seem to be having much of an effect on Apple product sales, so I don't see why Apple is being pulled down with the rest of the tech companies. Yet again, Amazon is sitting comfortably in the green, defying the rest of the market. I'm a a bit puzzled at that.

Whatever. Apple better deliver for the Christmas holiday and get over $300 and stay there for awhile. I'll be satisfied by that much.
post #14 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Anything is possible, but I am inclined to agree with the good Dr here.

Mid-300s somewhere during 2011? Highly probable. Mid-400s? Wow... (Unless there is another iPhone/iPod type product on the horizon, which none of us knows about, that will propel Apple's next growth burst).

Also, righty or wrongly, there is the matter of Jobs's health and market perceptions that conflate Apple's value with his presence.

I can hope can't I
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post #15 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Last time you and I discussed this topic early 09 didn't you say it was several years away from 200?

No, which I can safely say since I never predict future stock prices.
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post #16 of 31
I've benefitted handsomely from my APPL holdings and as much as I would love to see it hit that price, even I have to take a step back and think about what these "analysts" are up to.

If it were really going that high so soon, then I sincerely hope those guys are just buying everything AAPL right now since they seem to think it is at a fire-sale price right now.

I prefer they give me the next round of lottery numbers instead.
post #17 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by zindako View Post

...for sure it wont recede below $200.00 I think...

with quotes like this, you have the potential to be an analyst... or a politician.
post #18 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by zindako View Post

This report is over estimated, no one can predict where AAPL stock will be by end of 2011, I mean for sure it wont recede below $200.00 I think, but certainly saying $430.00 is not very realistic by end of 2011.

wow dude...you haven't been paying attention to their stock much have you?
post #19 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by coolcat View Post

wow dude...you haven't been paying attention to their stock much have you?

And you have?
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post #20 of 31
'nuf said.
post #21 of 31
for $300. I can't even think about $430. Would be really happy at $325.
post #22 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by easy288 View Post

for $300. I can't even think about $430. Would be really happy at $325.

At $400 I can retire.
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post #23 of 31
Anytime I see stories like this, or of Apple's latest patent applications, I get all speculative about what types of craziness is percolating in their skunkworks. I like to think that they've got stuff going on in there that would put Area 51 to shame.
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post #24 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

This has to be the most bullish forecast for AAPL ever. Everything has to go absolutely right for the company over the next year for them perform this well. Not only do they need to grow EPS by at least 50%, they also need to demonstrate the prospects of being able to continue that rate of growth beyond 2011. Possible, maybe... but this does not seem to be a typically cautious analyst's report.

apple is now in un charted waters .
no company has ever been this hot.
and apple is still cheap if you minus the cash from its stock price .

having 5 hot products at once .

wow

9
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whats in a name ? 
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post #25 of 31
This is not uncharted territory. This is the status quo for AAPL since the recovery began from the 2001 tech bubble burst.

In 2003 AAPL was at approximately $10/share,
In 2004 $20,
in 2005 $40
in 2006 $80
in 2007 $180
in 2008 $100*
in 2009 $200
in 2010 $280

* recession effect, and market collapse.

Even including the market collapse of 2008, working backwards from 2010, this works out to an average 74% gain in stack value per year since 2003.

Regressing this trend forward onto the current stock price predicts an AAPL valuation in excess of $450 per share. This ignores the fact that the market overall is in an upward mode as we emerge from a recession, and that Apple has strong potential growth in virtually every channel. I think $430 per share is conservative.

I have been long on AAPL for more than a decade, and am happy with the results so far.
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post #26 of 31
So does this mean that with my one share of Apple that I bought years ago for $20 that I'll be able to retire in 15 years?
post #27 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by brucep View Post

apple is now in un charted waters .
no company has ever been this hot.
and apple is still cheap if you minus the cash from its stock price .

It would be nice if P/E was calculated minus cash and plus debt, but it isn't. The reality is that once a company is longterm debt free, the banked cash doesn't mean that much to investors. If the company is a potential takeover target it might count for something, but I don't think Apple is one of those.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pondosinatra View Post

So does this mean that with my one share of Apple that I bought years ago for $20 that I'll be able to retire in 15 years?

I suppose that depends on your retirement objectives.
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post #28 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

We needs to post news like this when the stock is actually on the rise instead of on a day when its down. Thats always makes me a laugh.

mmmm ... not sure I totally agree. The 'down' may be a good time to see this for new investors and grab some AAPL knowing the future is rosy and the dips are either profit taking or market dips, rarely due to Apple per se. Never the less I know what you mean, the Apple success story seems to attract strange coverage at times.

Just to prove my belief in AAPL I grabbed an additional 100 shares at a fraction over 300 last week when the whole market dipped.
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Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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post #29 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by pondosinatra View Post

So does this mean that with my one share of Apple that I bought years ago for $20 that I'll be able to retire in 15 years?

I bet you wish you'd bought a hell of a lot more
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Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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post #30 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by wormboy View Post

This is not uncharted territory. This is the status quo for AAPL since the recovery began from the 2001 tech bubble burst.

In 2003 AAPL was at approximately $10/share,
In 2004 $20,
in 2005 $40
in 2006 $80
in 2007 $180
in 2008 $100*
in 2009 $200
in 2010 $280

* recession effect, and market collapse.

Even including the market collapse of 2008, working backwards from 2010, this works out to an average 74% gain in stack value per year since 2003.

Regressing this trend forward onto the current stock price predicts an AAPL valuation in excess of $450 per share. This ignores the fact that the market overall is in an upward mode as we emerge from a recession, and that Apple has strong potential growth in virtually every channel. I think $430 per share is conservative.

I have been long on AAPL for more than a decade, and am happy with the results so far.

That is a nice clear view you made thanks. As you say unlike so many companies at their apparent zenith, Apple hasn't scratched the surface of its potential markets (excepting iPod perhaps) yet.
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Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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post #31 of 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

We needs to post news like this when the stock is actually on the rise instead of on a day when its down. Thats always makes me a laugh.

Please understand a stock will never go up on a daily basis, you saying there shouldn't be posts about Apple when it goes down one day is absurd, people also buy more AAPL when it goes down not to mention short sellers.
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