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Apple TV sellouts seen as start of 1M sales per quarter

post #1 of 95
Thread Starter 
Just a week after the new Apple TV went on sale, many of Apple's retail stores around the U.S. are sold out of the set top box, with one Wall Street analyst predicting the device is on pace to sell a million per quarter.

"The hobby is a hit," analyst Alex Gauna with JMP Securities declared in a note to investors Wednesday. He said Apple retail stores in San Francisco, Boston, Chicago, New York and Washington D.C. are all sold out of the new Apple TV. In all, he checked with more than 20 different stores.

"Based on restocking figures provided by those store representatives willing to share such data, it seems as though Apple TV is off to an initial quarterly pace of at least one-quarter to one-third that of the iPad, or in the range of a million units or more," he wrote.

While initial sales are by no means an indicator of how the product will do in the long-term, Gauna said there also appears to be limited stock of the device, with levels less than the iPad launch. He expects many new iPad and iPhone buyers this holiday season will also opt for an Apple TV to expand the iOS ecosystem in their home.

If sales of the Apple TV keep up at the predicted pace of about a million per quarter, it would be a huge jump from past sales figures. Another Wall Street analyst has said the previous-generation device sold less than a million units per year.

JMP Securities has a price target of $335 for Apple stock. Its forecast calls for 17.5 million iPhone and iPad units to be shipped in the December quarter.

The new Apple TV, priced at just $99, is a cloud-centric device that emphasizes streaming of content and renting movies and TV shows. It features much less storage, and a significantly smaller physical footprint, than its predecessor.
post #2 of 95
I'll wait for Airplay feature before purchasing. I want to be able to stream HD movies from my iPhone instantly.
post #3 of 95
Apple: Who needs Internet on their TV right Google?
Google: Shut up..

Looks like Apple was in the right track with this Apple TV. You'll see an article soon (maybe in AppleInsider) on how many people are renting movies and TV shows on their Apple TVs. Then the rest of the networks will soon follow FOX and ABC.
post #4 of 95
And on top of that, the supposed competition is a joke.

Logitech finally announced their price for Google TV. It's $300!
http://www.logitech.com/en-us/smartTV/revue

Hahahahahahahahhahahahahah!
post #5 of 95
I like Logitech, but they will regret the day they decided to compete directly with Apple.

The optional "mini-controller" for Logitech's Google TV is more than the Apple TV!!!
http://www.logitech.com/en-us/smartT...ini-controller

Glad I don't have any Logitech stock. (And LOTS of AAPL!)
post #6 of 95
The price is really attractive. The previous AppleTV had a useless HDD and was more than double the price. In my opinion, now Apple needs an iTunes media server + built-in Airport Base Station/Time capsule.
post #7 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vatdoro View Post

I like Logitech, but they will regret the day they decided to compete directly with Apple.

The optional "mini-controller" for Logitech's Google TV is more than the Apple TV!!!
http://www.logitech.com/en-us/smartT...ini-controller

Glad I don't have any Logitech stock. (And LOTS of AAPL!)

quite the contrast. The Apple TV remote



and the Google TV remote



That's the slimmed down option, the one that comes with it is bigger.
post #8 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vatdoro View Post

And on top of that, the supposed competition is a joke.

Logitech finally announced their price for Google TV. It's $300!
http://www.logitech.com/en-us/smartTV/revue

Hahahahahahahahhahahahahah!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vatdoro View Post

I like Logitech, but they will regret the day they decided to compete directly with Apple.

The optional "mini-controller" for Logitech's Google TV is more than the Apple TV!!!
http://www.logitech.com/en-us/smartT...ini-controller

Glad I don't have any Logitech stock. (And LOTS of AAPL!)

Some might say "They're doing it wrong!" and $129.99 for a mini controller? seriously?
post #9 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vatdoro View Post

And on top of that, the supposed competition is a joke.

Logitech finally announced their price for Google TV. It's $300!
http://www.logitech.com/en-us/smartTV/revue

Hahahahahahahahhahahahahah!

Not only is it $300, but it comes with a keyboard and that seems to be its defining image from the above link. I don't get it.
post #10 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by alandail View Post

quite the contrast. The Apple TV remote



and the Google TV remote



here's the Google TV remote from Sony.


post #11 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vatdoro View Post

And on top of that, the supposed competition is a joke.

Logitech finally announced their price for Google TV. It's $300!
http://www.logitech.com/en-us/smartTV/revue

Hahahahahahahahhahahahahah!

Apple has really drawn a bead on 'popular' pricing these days (AppleTV, iPad, iPod Touch and iPod Mini), and is now able to use their brand appeal to move a LOT of product. The AppleTV is some hobby!
post #12 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by alandail View Post

quite the contrast. The Apple TV remote



and the Google TV remote



That's the slimmed down option, the one that comes with it is bigger.

And you can use you iOS devices to control Google TV.. There's a app for that.

post #13 of 95
I can't say if Apple is "doing it right" this time as I feel deal with content holders is important and I don't see how they can benefit their bottom line* much with this device, but I can say that everyone else is "doing it wrong". For Google's ake I hope some HW partners are making better decisions.

* Note that if you can advance your bottom line at this time a viable strategy could be to at least keep others from advancing theirs while you hold fast for the proper time to strike.
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post #14 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wurm5150 View Post

And you can use you iOS devices to control Google TV.. There's a app for that.

What's going to happen when iOS devices are self aware? Me thinks this.

hahaha sorry, I just had to.
post #15 of 95
I hate how these so called "analysts" think they can take the first week of sales and project out to a single quarter, never mind saying "per quarter". That is completely unfounded bunk. The prediction isn't worth the air used to utter it.
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post #16 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vatdoro View Post

And on top of that, the supposed competition is a joke.

Logitech finally announced their price for Google TV. It's $300!
http://www.logitech.com/en-us/smartTV/revue

Hahahahahahahahhahahahahah!

I'm still fuzzy on what this thing does for $300, other than watch web videos on a TV. There are many other options (Roku, Apple TV, blu-ray players, PS3, etc) that do as much or more for less money.

For an extra $150, one can make video calls, but to who? I know of no one that uses Vid (I know that is not scientific) but lots of people that use Skype, Facetime, and others.

Regarding the remote for $130, Logitech has to be kidding. Will the iPhone app be $130? Doubt it.

I do like the tagline, "Sleek, powerful, and". It does look "sleek," I will take Logitech's word that it is "powerful" (although I don't know what that means), "and." And what??? Does Logitech not know what the thing does either?
post #17 of 95
Anyone know if the AppleTV can be set to randomly play a series of videoclips repeatedly that would be stored locally on the HD? I'm looking for a cheap way to stream videos to a TV/monitor that requires little to no maintenance. For $99, the AppleTV looks perfect. Otherwise, I'd have to use a ac mini or some other small computer, but the price is way too much for what it will be doing. Thanks.
post #18 of 95
I do like the pass-through HDMI on the Logitech device.

If I get a call from my Mom (now 72, sharp as a tack, but not tech savvy) for help with her TV, it's when she's changed inputs. Trouble shooting TVs over the phone is a pain. I like the idea of one input to the TV. (Now, of course, how the Logitech handles this may be another kettle of fish. But in general, I like the idea.)
post #19 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Programmer View Post

I hate how these so called "analysts" think they can take the first week of sales and project out to a single quarter, never mind saying "per quarter". That is completely unfounded bunk. The prediction isn't worth the air used to utter it.

I agree 100%. The price is certainly right, but initial sales are worthless. Early adopters are meaningless statistically.

I have an older ATV and will consider getting one of these to replace it, but only because of netflix capability, and only if ATVFlash is working. I have too many mkv and avi files that I want to play on my ATV. Right now the WD Live + is looking like a better, if less elegant, option for me.
post #20 of 95
A physical keyboard in front of a TV? Total fail!

People don't sit down in front of the TV because they want to type on keyboard. I don't even want to type on a keyboard when I'm in front of my computer.
post #21 of 95
The mark-up is quite low, but if they manage to sell a mil per quarter, that would be around $34 million per quarter. Not bad for a hobby, It would buy Jobs a lot of turtlenecks.
post #22 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quevar View Post

Anyone know if the AppleTV can be set to randomly play a series of videoclips repeatedly that would be stored locally on the HD? I'm looking for a cheap way to stream videos to a TV/monitor that requires little to no maintenance. For $99, the AppleTV looks perfect. Otherwise, I'd have to use a ac mini or some other small computer, but the price is way too much for what it will be doing. Thanks.

Can probably do it with iTunes AppleScript Dictionary (still requires a computer)

Sudo code:

tell application "iTunes"
if (something) then open (choose file)
end tell

Could get a little complicated but might be worthwhile for a professional office lobby where you want to loop videos highlighting services offered.

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post #23 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by rp2011 View Post

The mark-up is quite low, but if they manage to sell a mil per quarter, that would be around $34 million per quarter. Not bad for a hobby, It would buy Jobs a lot of turtlenecks.

You can't use iSuppli's BOM estimate to churn out a number like that.

First of all, BOM is not COGS. There's packaging, the cost of the remote, etc. before you reach COGS. From the gross margin (revenue minus COGS), you have to subtract SG&A (marketing, distribution, etc.), R&D costs, patent/licensing fees, etc. The net income from an Apple TV is much lower, probably in the single-digit percentage.

The BOM percentage is much lower for the new Apple TV compared to the old model, but it's still not in the typical 50% margin range of other iOS devices.

http://www.macrumors.com/2010/10/05/...-pegged-at-64/
post #24 of 95
Put them in a Playlist and choose random and repeat for goodness sake.
post #25 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quevar View Post

Anyone know if the AppleTV can be set to randomly play a series of videoclips repeatedly that would be stored locally on the HD? I'm looking for a cheap way to stream videos to a TV/monitor that requires little to no maintenance. For $99, the AppleTV looks perfect. Otherwise, I'd have to use a ac mini or some other small computer, but the price is way too much for what it will be doing. Thanks.

No way to store the video locally. If this is going to be a fixed setup, within your local network, you can make it work fairly easily, I think (but haven't tried it).

The ATV has an option to shuffle play all the selections in the iTunes playlist entitled "Music Videos." So, put your clips in that folder, fire up the TV and ATV, select the playlist and shuffle, watch your clips. What I don't know without testing is whether the shuffle will automatically repeat.
post #26 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quevar View Post

Anyone know if the AppleTV can be set to randomly play a series of videoclips repeatedly that would be stored locally on the HD? I'm looking for a cheap way to stream videos to a TV/monitor that requires little to no maintenance. For $99, the AppleTV looks perfect. Otherwise, I'd have to use a ac mini or some other small computer, but the price is way too much for what it will be doing. Thanks.

You may want to look at the Roku Players (Put your videos on an SD card and let it go). As much as aTV or cheaper. I don't know if it will loop or randomly videos or not though. If not that, then just get a tiny little 200 dollar nettop, load on Ubuntu, and have it loop or randomly play the video to your TV. Apple doesn't make any "cheap" products that are this specific.
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post #27 of 95
Bet Apple will make more money off their box than Google.
post #28 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by rp2011 View Post

The mark-up is quite low, but if they manage to sell a mil per quarter, that would be around $34 million per quarter. Not bad for a hobby, It would buy Jobs a lot of turtlenecks.

A more realistic number is probably around $20 per AppleTV, using Apple's average profit margin as a guide. At a million per quarter, that would be 4 million per year, or $80 million in additional profit. At a P/E ratio of 20 (perhaps a tad high), that's an extra $1.6B in market cap, or about $1.80 per share.

Not chump change, but not the blockbuster growth opportunity that will take the stock to the next stage.
post #29 of 95
Have you heard of the Logitech Revue? Looks like a considerable competitor to Apple TV.

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post #30 of 95
I love my new Apple TV. I dumped BB Online and signed up with Netflix and the streaming quality is decent enough that it suffices for the movies that I will stream. Ive rented, and will continue to rent, the few TV shows that I actually watch, and any movies that I don't feel like waiting for the Bluray to come in the mail.

The iPad or iPhone as a remote is excellent.
post #31 of 95
I just wanted to know how many units were sold from how many stocks that was made available before concluding it is a sold out.... not saying Apple constraining stock to boost sale rate but still... this is just the initial period... wait until the next presentation to see the actual numbers..
post #32 of 95
If it only ran apps. Maybe it'll do soon, using the iPod touch, iPhone or iPad as input.

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post #33 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Have you heard of the Logitech Revue? Looks like a considerable competitor to Apple TV.

Have you heard the AppleTV is a build out of one's already growing ecosystem? Why in the hell would I want to spend $300 as an Apple customer if I'm already used to having my Mac, iPod Touch, iPhone, and more?
post #34 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

Have you heard the AppleTV is a build out of one's already growing ecosystem? Why in the hell would I want to spend $300 as an Apple customer if I'm already used to having my Mac, iPod Touch, iPhone, and more?

You may not want to, but to a potential customer without all of those "sunk costs" Logitech's product may look like the perfect solution.

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post #35 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

You may not want to, but to a potential customer without all of those "sunk costs" Logitech's product may look like the perfect solution.

Imo the logitech google tv is a geek toy. Too complex for average users
post #36 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by camroidv27 View Post

You may want to look at the Roku Players (Put your videos on an SD card and let it go). As much as aTV or cheaper. I don't know if it will loop or randomly videos or not though. If not that, then just get a tiny little 200 dollar nettop, load on Ubuntu, and have it loop or randomly play the video to your TV. Apple doesn't make any "cheap" products that are this specific.

Well, they do actually-- as has been pointed out, Apple TV + video playlist in iTunes + shuffle + repeat and you're done.
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post #37 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Have you heard of the Logitech Revue? Looks like a considerable competitor to Apple TV.

Google TV/Revue are competitors, but at the same time they are not. There is a fundamental difference in the approach taken by Google/Logitech and Apple.

Apple: Apple TV is an add-on to your existing home theatre. It brings additional content and/or viewing options. The add-on concept is familiar to consumers as they are used to adding bluray players, game boxes, etc.

Google TV/Logitech Revue: Complete restructuring of your home theatre. Rather than being an add-on, it is trying to be the new heart of your system. It will require users to completely rewire/setup their systems and get used to a new way of doing things. The TV or receiver is no longer the center of the system. This is a radical concept that consumers won't be used to. How can something that isn't a receiver/tuner/tv be the heart of the system?

Apple's approach has far broader appeal both because of price and the ability of an average consumer to understand what it is/does. They are taking a seed/harvest approach. Apple TV has basic functionality now, but AirPlay, apps and additional content providers will make it into a super powerful device. Integration with the Apple ecosystem takes it even further. And then they'll take all that functionality and cram it into their own TV and take the market by storm.

I think it really comes down to one thing. Can you explain what these products do to an average consumer in one or two sentences? If not, you've lost them. I think this is where Google's strategy will hinder its success. Its just too complicated for consumers to understand why they need it or how they would use it.
post #38 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Programmer View Post

I hate how these so called "analysts" think they can take the first week of sales and project out to a single quarter, never mind saying "per quarter". That is completely unfounded bunk. The prediction isn't worth the air used to utter it.

I don't believe the Analyst, but that is because I think their estimate is low... I am going to buy one for the Netflix feature alone. The damn Netflix box was $99 and all it did was Netflix. This is so much more even without the harddrive. Think about how many people bought an Airport Express just to stream music to it. With the installed base of devices that will be able to stream to this with Airplay (Yes that includes your desktops and laptops and not just late gen iOS devices) there will be heavy demand at this price point and feature set. Not to mention it will only get better.

Oh, $99 for streaming Internet Radio to your TV/Stereo? Nice....
post #39 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Programmer View Post

I hate how these so called "analysts" think they can take the first week of sales and project out to a single quarter, never mind saying "per quarter". That is completely unfounded bunk. The prediction isn't worth the air used to utter it.

I generally believe most analysts to be stupid. After all there is a reason they are an analyst rather than an executive actually doing business and making the big bucks. Those who can't do, teach. Right?

Anyhow, their predictions aren't quite as basic as extrapolating sales in a linear fashion based on the first week. They look at the first week, look at the market and look at a growth curve for typical products and markets of the same nature. So there is more to it than just multiplication, but more often than not they are wrong anyways.

Seriously, how many analysts were able to accurately predict iPad sales for 2010? None! iPhone 4 sales? None!

And another thing that irks me about analysts is how they are never visionary. So we end up with analysts with no vision who only know how to look backwards trying to predict how visionary companies will behave in the future. Recipe for disaster. In the end, stupid analysts end up influencing stupid investors into predictable behaviours. If you can learn this pattern and foresee those predictable behaviours there is a lot of money to be made I like to call it "investing in stupidity." I invest in others' stupidity.
post #40 of 95
Me thinks it's the power of the Netflix App that's driving sales. Apple had many people interested in the ATV a while ago. I was one of them. But it lacked basic things that we all wanted. Streaming content directly from a cloud, Netflix, and some other basic features. Well, I'm still waitng for those other basic features, but Apple has gained about 75% more adopters due to simply Netflix. The box is basically the same function that the previous ATV's had, except Netflix and this new Airplay feature. Otherwise the interface and the Apps are the same.

So I don't think there is any comparison to Google at all. On the Contrary, Google's TVOS is drastically different. Not to mention they are taking the standpoint they always have, which is to make the system, but let everyone else supply the hardware to adapt to it. Partnering with Sony, Logitec, and ESPECIALLY Dish Network are huge moves for Google. Soon all Dish Network customers will have to option to get a DVR with Google TV built in. Apple should have partnered with ATT's Uverse and did the same. Google's exposure will be similar to how Android has evolved into the market that it is today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgl323 View Post

Apple: Who needs Internet on their TV right Google?
Google: Shut up..

Looks like Apple was in the right track with this Apple TV. You'll see an article soon (maybe in AppleInsider) on how many people are renting movies and TV shows on their Apple TVs. Then the rest of the networks will soon follow FOX and ABC.
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