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JP Morgan: Apple's fourth quarter revenue estimate raised to $18.71B

post #1 of 32
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Citing strong sales momentum for the iPad and iPhone, J.P. Morgan raised its revenue estimates for Apple's fourth fiscal quarter of 2010 from $18.13B to $18.71B, reiterating the company's price target of $400 by December 2011.

J.P. Morgan's positive revision of its revenue estimates extended out to the end of Apple's 2011 fiscal year, with an estimated revenue of $81.53 billion for Apple next fiscal year, up from a previous estimate of $78.84 billion. The report, issued by J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz early Thursday, reassured investors that there's "plenty of growth" left for Apple. Checks with primary research contacts by the analyst revealed that the iPhone and iPad were still gaining momentum through the end of Apple's fourth fiscal quarter of 2010 on Sept. 30.

The report does not include a Verizon iPhone in its estimates for the 2011 fiscal year, though the partnership "appears to be coming" as soon as early 2011. According to Moskowitz, a Verizon iPhone could add as much as $2.00 in incremental Earnings Per Share next year.

The analyst sees recent media speculation and supply chain indicators as pointing to a CDMA-based iPhone. He expects "the introduction of a CDMA iPhone first with Verizon in early 2011 and then China Telecom in early to mid-2011."

Apple's gross margins are expected to return to the 40 percent range relatively soon. The analyst upped the September quarter's gross margin estimate from 39.2 percent to 39.5 percent, noting that the "potential cross-over point" to 40 percent margins could come as early as the end of next quarter. Declines in component pricing, especially HDD, DRAM, and NAND flash, are anticipated, counteracting offsets from education discounts and the free iPhone 4 bumper program.

Moskowitz believes that the iPad's "competitive prowess" will surpass that of the iPhone, despite several competitors' plans to bring competing tablets to market.

"We are skeptical, however, of the competition exhibiting a similar adoption curve as the iPads," he said. "In contrast to smartphones and the need for apps, we believe the content (movies and TV shows) is the key to tablet adoption, and here, Apple has the content."

The analyst views tablet cannibalization of Macs as nothing to worry about. J.P. Morgan does expect up to a 50 percent cannibalization of netback sales, but "back-of-the-envelope" math points to approximately 5-10 percent cannibalization of the total PC market.

The iPad could actually help sales of Macs, the analyst noted. "We would not be surprised to see another halo effect whereby iPad sales drive purchases of Macs as the central command center for content creation and sharing in a household, and then the iPad offers the ultra-portable experience," said Moskowitz.

J.P. Morgan's estimate that Apple sold 4.7 million iPads in the most recent quarter is higher than Bernstein Research analyst Colin McGranahan's estimate of 4.5 million iPads sold. McGranahan caused a stir Tuesday when he noted that the iPad has had the fastest adoption rate of any non-phone electronic product.

Apple will publish its quarterly earnings report on Monday, Oct. 18, at 5 p.m. Eastern, 2 p.m. Pacific.
post #2 of 32
One iPad Per Human (OIPH) in 2011
post #3 of 32
No no...

It's one human per iPad. ; )
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post #4 of 32
Apple will easily beat J.P. Morgan's raised estimate.
post #5 of 32
I got a feeling I'm gonna enjoy the next two weeks.
post #6 of 32
In a tough economic climate, Apple is doing pretty well. US unemployment close to 10%...! Oh the madness. Expect anyways fiscal q4 for Apple to be best ever ever. Followed by holiday fiscal q1 2011 to beat that.

One thing is for sure, analysts will be hammering Apple hard during the conference call about where the heck all the iPhone4 and iPads are. To them Apple ain't making enough to keep up with demand, which I agree a little but don't mind tooooo much.

Supply issues are frustrating but I don't want quality to take a big dive.
post #7 of 32
Regarding to this i would like to say that i wish my father hadn't sold all his apple shares, he bought 500 shares at 8 dolars i think (long time ago before i even knew what a computer is), not they are at 289.19$ common!!! life is just unfair .

But as a MAC user i'm glad the company is doing well.
post #8 of 32
"netback sales" ?
post #9 of 32
I don't doubt AAPL will be close to 400 by Christmas time next year what ever the accuracies of these earnings predictions.
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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post #10 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by iPad999 View Post

One iPad Per Human (OIPH) in 2011

Quote:
Originally Posted by cy_starkman View Post

No no...

It's one human per iPad. ; )

How about OiPC? Seriously!

.
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post #11 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

How about OiPC? Seriously!

.

Wow. What a cool idea!

(But not gonna happen, given the price.)
post #12 of 32
how about APPL and its share holders to say thank you to all of us which have spent premium on those products so the revenue grown that nice, huh? They can say thanks to all of us by not charging 30% premium when buying Apple products from outside US and some other special areas (ie HK), but charging same or similar amount as in the US...
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post #13 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2992 View Post

how about APPL and its share holders to say thank you to all of us which have spent premium on those products so the revenue grown that nice, huh? They can say thanks to all of us by not charging 30% premium when buying Apple products from outside US and some other special areas (ie HK), but charging same or similar amount as in the US...

There's an easy way to stop that. Just quit voting in your red tape loving socialist governments.
post #14 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

There's an easy way to stop that. Just quit voting in your red tape loving socialist governments.

Have a look at Apple prices all over Europe (UK included?) before saying anything about any red tape...

Btw, I gave HK as example because over there Apple products are actually cheaper than most states in the US.
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post #15 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2992 View Post

how about APPL and its share holders to say thank you to all of us which have spent premium on those products so the revenue grown that nice, huh? They can say thanks to all of us by not charging 30% premium when buying Apple products from outside US and some other special areas (ie HK), but charging same or similar amount as in the US...

You would have the pricing you speak of if your government didn't impose tariffs and such on imported Apple HW to start with. Do you expect Apple to pay these for you?

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post #16 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2992 View Post

how about APPL and its share holders to say thank you to all of us which have spent premium on those products so the revenue grown that nice, huh? They can say thanks to all of us by not charging 30% premium when buying Apple products from outside US and some other special areas (ie HK), but charging same or similar amount as in the US...

It's called Value Added Tax (VAT):
"What VAT rate will I be charged?

Your Apple Store purchases will be taxed using the applicable VAT tax rate for your country. No intra-community purchases can be made on the Apple Store.

From 1 January 2010, the standard VAT rate for the UK will increase to 17.5 per cent.

Orders placed in the UK after 31 December 2009 will be subject to a VAT rate of 17.5 per cent."
post #17 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2992 View Post

Have a look at Apple prices all over Europe (UK included?) before saying anything about any red tape...

Btw, I gave HK as example because over there Apple products are actually cheaper than most states in the US.

I accept and expect that prices in HK would be cheaper as the transportation costs would be substantially lower since the products are made in China to start with.

"A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools." Douglas Adams

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post #18 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Wow. What a cool idea!

(But not gonna happen, given the price.)

Don't forget that Jobs offered them OS X for free, but they turned it down.

iOS would be a better fit, now that it's in ver 4, but they don't want to depend on a company. They are now looking at Android, but that not going to be less encumbered, it will likely be more.
post #19 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2992 View Post

how about APPL and its share holders to say thank you to all of us which have spent premium on those products so the revenue grown that nice, huh? They can say thanks to all of us by not charging 30% premium when buying Apple products from outside US and some other special areas (ie HK), but charging same or similar amount as in the US...

What does Appel Petroleum (APPL) and its shareholders have to do with this discussion?

post #20 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2992 View Post

how about APPL and its share holders to say thank you to all of us which have spent premium on those products so the revenue grown that nice, huh? They can say thanks to all of us by not charging 30% premium when buying Apple products from outside US and some other special areas (ie HK), but charging same or similar amount as in the US...

It isn't Apple that adds the premium. It's the countries the products are imported to that add that.

I was just in the U.K. Prices are much more expensive there, for everything.

For example, the new Kindle sells for 109 pounds. That's about $179.85 depending on the exchange rate. An AtHome dock for the iPhone that sells there for 89 pounds is equal to $146.85, even though it costs $99 here.

There's little manufacturers can do about it. For one thing, most countries have VAT. In the UK it's usually 17%. Then they add up to 10% for products not made there.
post #21 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2992 View Post

Have a look at Apple prices all over Europe (UK included?) before saying anything about any red tape...

Btw, I gave HK as example because over there Apple products are actually cheaper than most states in the US.

Electronics are more expensive in almost every country of the EU. I know that for a fact. I have German friends that come here to buy German photographic products because they're much cheaper here.

But prices aremore expensive in Japan for reason of taxes. Even products made there aremuch more expensive than anywhere else. Same thing is true for S Korea. China adds its own taxes. HK is different because it more of a free trade zone for many, but not all products.
post #22 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Don't forget that Jobs offered them OS X for free, but they turned it down.

iOS would be a better fit, now that it's in ver 4, but they don't want to depend on a company. They are now looking at Android, but that not going to be less encumbered, it will likely be more.

I agree as Android doesn't have a good track record for allowing backward compatibility. I would think that factor alone could or would prove to be a major problem requiring a hardware redesign 2 or 3 times a year.

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post #23 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheldon25 View Post

Regarding to this i would like to say that i wish my father hadn't sold all his apple shares, he bought 500 shares at 8 dolars i think (long time ago before i even knew what a computer is), not they are at 289.19$ common!!! life is just unfair .

But as a MAC user i'm glad the company is doing well.

Well, in the past few days I more or less helped my dad NOT lose several grand in a few days. May not sound like much but he is 71, well into retirement.

We have an AUD term deposit, of which the bank tried to sell us twice the interest if it was linked to the US dollar in one of these currency-linked investment things. If the AUD/USD hit 0.99 half of the AUD deposit would be converted to USD. But AUD has 4.5% interest and USD close to 0%. So you'd have to convert back to AUD to gain any interest and there you'd lose out because the bank converted at 0.99, you'd never get the same rate converting back, you'd have to eat the spread, say 0.97 or whatever depending on how things moved.

It was several days ago when AUD was at 0.96 to USD and this bank charlatan was trying to sell this currency-linked thing. I told my dad, something is very wrong here, and luckily he decided not to go ahead.

A few hours ago AUD to USD hit an all-time high since they floated the currency in the 80's... The all time high, you guessed it... was 0.99

There are always opportunities we're missing out on. But I'm also thankful for the ones we didn't get sucked into.

Money never sleeps...
post #24 of 32
Which by the way off-topic but what the heck are these currency-linked investments?
post #25 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by Realistic View Post

I accept and expect that prices in HK would be cheaper as the transportation costs would be substantially lower since the products are made in China to start with.

No, Hong Kong just doesn't have any sales tax or import tariffs. Transportation cost is a rounding error.
post #26 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

There are always opportunities we're missing out on. But I'm also thankful for the ones we didn't get sucked into.

Money never sleeps...

Currency investment... real investment... is a tough game to play. I would like to be able to hedge some of my currency risks associated with the places I go, but wow! You can lose money quickly.

It is interesting though how complicated finance has become with all of the derivative investment tools, high frequency trading, etc. In some ways, it beats using things like mutual funds... but it takes a lot more work.
post #27 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

It isn't Apple that adds the premium. It's the countries the products are imported to that add that.

I was just in the U.K. Prices are much more expensive there, for everything.

For example, the new Kindle sells for 109 pounds. That's about $179.85 depending on the exchange rate. An AtHome dock for the iPhone that sells there for 89 pounds is equal to $146.85, even though it costs $99 here.

There's little manufacturers can do about it. For one thing, most countries have VAT. In the UK it's usually 17%. Then they add up to 10% for products not made there.

Not only that, but strong local currencies do not automatically translate into bargains for imported goods, or any kind of goods for that matter. Even taxes aside, local economic conditions set prices for goods, not currency exchange rates.

The Economist's annual "burgernomics" articles are one good way to look at the issue of currency valuations and what that means (or doesn't mean) for local pricing.

http://www.economist.com/node/166461...ry_id=16646178

The bottom line is, the price you pay for goods locally is what local conditions support, not some theoretical price that you could get if you were spending your currency in another country.
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post #28 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Wow. What a cool idea!

(But not gonna happen, given the price.)

The price isn't that far off. The original OLPC was targeted to cost/sell for $100.

The best they could do was $200 -- they had a B1G1 (Buy 1, Give 1) program for $399 plus $25 shipping. So, the cost per unit was $212.50 including shipping.

iPad component costs are estimated at $259.


Some, could look at those numbers and say: OiPC is a righteous cause -- how can we make it happen?

I considered the G1G1 (sight unseen). I certainly would support a similar (maybe B1/2, G1/2) for a proven entity.

.
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post #29 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

The price isn't that far off. The original OLPC was targeted to cost/sell for $100.

The best they could do was $200 -- they had a B1G1 (Buy 1, Give 1) program for $299 plus $25 shipping. So, the cost per unit was $212.50 including shipping.

iPad component costs are estimated at $259.


Some, could look at those numbers and say: OiPC is a righteous cause -- how can we make it happen?

I considered the G1G1 (sight unseen). I certainly would support a similar (maybe B1/2, G1/2) for a proven entity.

.

There are a few issues that would need to be addressed, for starters: (i) Since it is a product that can easily shatter given its form factor, it will need to be supplied with cases, adding to costs; (ii) There is then the cost of the internet/phone data connection; (iii) There has to some access to a 'mother ship' for things such as software updates; (iv) It has to be clearly distinguished from the standard product, so that it doesn't end up in the black market for people to make a quick profit.

Perhaps this is the area where Jobs should be starting to spend a part of his wealth.
post #30 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Don't forget that Jobs offered them OS X for free, but they turned it down.

That's very cool! I did not know that.
post #31 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

In a tough economic climate, Apple is doing pretty well. US unemployment close to 10%...! Oh the madness. Expect anyways fiscal q4 for Apple to be best ever ever. Followed by holiday fiscal q1 2011 to beat that.

One thing is for sure, analysts will be hammering Apple hard during the conference call about where the heck all the iPhone4 and iPads are. To them Apple ain't making enough to keep up with demand, which I agree a little but don't mind tooooo much.

Supply issues are frustrating but I don't want quality to take a big dive.


Why will anyone hammer Apple over iPad supply? It ships in 24 hours. (iPhone is 5-7 days.)
post #32 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by alexkhan2000 View Post

Apple will easily beat J.P. Morgan's raised estimate.


I think their estimation for iPhones is way low. A mere 6 million, but it looks like China could sell 1M
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