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Barclays puts $385 target on Apple, sees 150M FaceTime devices by 2012

post #1 of 39
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British investment bank Barclays Capital on Tuesday raised its price target on shares of Apple by more than 10% to $385 per share, citing strength in all four of the company's core product segments and expectations it will build a network of 150 million FaceTime-enabled devices over the next two years.

"We are raising our estimates and target for Apple to reflect our view that the company is seeing strong demand not only for the iPad and the iPhone 4 but also for Macs and new iPods," analyst Ben Reitzes wrote in a note to clients. "Long-term, we are excited about Apples potential to grow via networked devices through FaceTime, which we expect to be enabled on all Apple devices over time."

More specifically, the analyst is projecting Apple to sell almost 40 million FaceTime compatible iPhones in fiscal 2011, 15 million FaceTime compatible iPods, and 8 million FaceTime compatible iPads for a total installed base of over 63 million FaceTime devices by the end of the fiscal year.

"Thats a nice start to create a powerful networking effect," he wrote. "In [fiscal 2012] we see that figure jumping to an installed base of over 150 million FaceTime enabled devices, which could prove conservative if FaceTime is put in all iPads and all Macs."

Introduced this past summer alongside the iPhone 4, FaceTime is Apple's open standard for conducting video conferencing across devices using WiFi and VOIP, and capable of switching from a cellular connection to a video seamlessly. Users only need to register an Apple ID and own a supporting product to make use of the technology.

Given Apples high share among college students, Reitzes said he envisions a world where an entire campus could eventually communicate in some way using FaceTime on a device if desired. And while he believes Google's Android platform can do a "good job" with a similar type of feature, it seems that Apple is offering more of a complete package to make FaceTime grow into a multiplier for its device sales through vertical integration.

"We believe the 'FaceTime networking effect' could provide a halo effect on Macs and iPads once the feature becomes available," the analyst wrote. "Note that FaceTime is an 'open standard' so if Apple is successful in making this feature ubiquitous, more non-Apple devices could be made compatible in the future."

Reitzes also acknowledge Apple's diligence in its implementation of the FaceTime standard thus far, making it mandatory to conduct video conferencing rather than just voice. "Obviously, carrier partners would not want FaceTime to provide a one- button VOIP option that would be a much more affordable voice option for Apple customers," he explained. "As a result, over time Apple could arguably remake voice calling if it chose to through FaceTime allowing customers to make calls through VOIP easily (over WiFi or a 3G/4G network)."



Reinforcing their convictions, Reitzes and his team raised their per-share earnings estimates for Apple through fiscal 2011, driven by prospects for higher margins and significantly higher iPad sales -- thanks to improved production and distribution -- into the fourth quarter and higher iPhone sales.

They now estimate fiscal 4Q per share earnings of $4.05 (up from $3.91), based on 59% year-over-year revenue growth to $19.45 billion (up from $19.2 billion) and gross margin of 37.3% (up from 36.8%). Their 4Q estimates include Mac unit growth of 23% year-over-year to 3.75 million (unchanged), an iPod unit decline of 8% year-over-year to 9.4 million (unchanged), iPhone units of 12.8 million (unchanged) and 4.8 million iPad units (up from 4.3 million).

For all of fiscal 2010, they're estimating per share earnings of $14.56 (up from $14.43) based on 50% year-over-year revenue growth to $64.3 billion (up from $64 billion). Meanwhile, their fiscal 2011 per share earnings estimates rise to $17.80 (from $16.92) based on 27% year-over-year revenue growth to $81.8 billion (up from $79.4 billion) and gross margin of 38.4% (up from 37.9%).

"Even at this market cap, we continue to believe Apple is the best growth play in the IT Hardware segment with prospects for significant double digit organic revenue growth for several more years," Reitzes wrote. His new price target on shares of the company stands at $385 (up from $340), representing 15x his fiscal year non-GAAP EPS estimate of $20.80, excluding interest income but adding back cash.
post #2 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

More specifically, the analyst is projecting Apple to sell almost 40 million FaceTime compatible iPhones in fiscal 2011, 15 million FaceTime compatible iPods, and 8 million FaceTime compatible iPads – for a total installed base of over 63 million FaceTime devices by the end of the fiscal year.

Really?
  • That is 3.33 million iPhones per month
    (Isn’t that slightly under what they are doing now?)

  • That is 0.88 million iPads per month, assuming another April release for the iPad with FaceTime
    (Aren’t they doing about 3 million per month now?)

  • That is 1.25 million iPod Touches per month
    (Aren’t they on par with the iPhone unit sales?)
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post #3 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Really?
  • That is 3.33 million iPhones per month
    (Isnt that slightly under what they are doing now?)

  • That is 0.88 million iPads per month, assuming another April release for the iPad with FaceTime
    (Arent they doing about 3 million per month now?)

  • That is 1.25 million iPod Touches per month
    (Arent they on par with the iPhone unit sales?)

Pssst! Hey!... No one really expected you to analyze the analysts! Now you've gone and done it. Their illusion of competancy is shattering!

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #4 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Pssst! Hey!... No one really expected you to analyze the analysts! Now you've gone and done it. Their illusion of competancy is shattering!

The real shocker would have been if they would have had figures that actually made some sort of sense.
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post #5 of 39
Unless Facetime gets on non-Apple platforms it is not going to succeed. We already have a Yahoo app that offers video chat on iPhones, Android phones and PCs/Macs with anexisting large user base. I wouldn't be surprised to see MSN, GTalk and Skype quickly follow and maybe Facebook will join in as well.
post #6 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Really?
  • That is 3.33 million iPhones per month
    (Isn’t that slightly under what they are doing now?)

  • That is 0.88 million iPads per month, assuming another April release for the iPad with FaceTime
    (Aren’t they doing about 3 million per month now?)

  • That is 1.25 million iPod Touches per month
    (Aren’t they on par with the iPhone unit sales?)

  • I think you are right on the iPhones. Expect more.

  • The FaceTime enabled iPads would not be the present model - they are assuming that that model comes in later in the year.

  • - iPod sales are about 10M a quarter, except for the holiday quarter. Apple doesnt break the ipods down into the different models, but looking at ASP most analysts believe that the touch is about 50-60%. So that is up to 6 million a quarter which is below iPhone sales.


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post #7 of 39
Shouldn't they split the shares in two or three ( $100 value/share ), like five-zeven years back?
post #8 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by lord anubis View Post

Shouldn't they split the shares in two or three ( $100 value/share ), like five-zeven years back?

Nope. Splits are little more than a gimmick.
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post #9 of 39
This could well be too conservative.

BTW IMHO Splitting isn't a gimmick totally. There are sound reasons why it is done (explained many times here before). Then, who am I to argue with such experts that says it is.
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post #10 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by lord anubis View Post

Shouldn't they split the shares in two or three ( $100 value/share ), like five-zeven years back?

There are definitely some sales benefits to splitting even as we know, (sigh) the numerical value isn't changed. I actually feel letting the pps get this high is a Google effect and has some snobbery attached to it.
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post #11 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by lord anubis View Post

Shouldn't they split the shares in two or three ( $100 value/share ), like five-zeven years back?

Reducing the single share price does drive trading activity, including that of retail investors. Unlike old-school blue chips like General Electric, AAPL shares are mostly in the hands of institutional investors though, not the little aunt Millies of this nation.

Increased trade activity does cause equities to be added to more index funds, etc. so indeed three shares of $100 stock are not the same as one share of $300 stock.

Personally, I think that shareholder equity of AAPL is quite low and that the company is undervalued vis-a-vis ongoing increases in their profitability. This stock should really be trading at $400/share, not $300. That said, it still has outpaced every other S&P 500 component over the past five years.
post #12 of 39
What kind of morons raise earning targets after the fact? All investment bankers! Does this schmuck think AAPL is going to stagnate next year?
post #13 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ Web View Post

What kind of morons raise earning targets after the fact? All investment bankers! Does this schmuck think AAPL is going to stagnate next year?

Actually, there is very little fact in the quoted analysis.

We'll see more facts on Monday. However, Apple breaks out its numbers in ways where people still must guess some of the details (e.g., they do not separate iPod touch sales from other iPods, they don't break out sales by country).
post #14 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Actually, there is very little fact in the quoted analysis.

We'll see more facts on Monday. However, Apple breaks out its numbers in ways where people still must guess some of the details (e.g., they do not separate iPod touch sales from other iPods, they don't break out sales by country).

That's why being a Wall Street analyst is the easiest job in America. All you got to get right is the spelling of your name. Always considered it the domain of nepots and mistresses.
post #15 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orlando View Post

Unless Facetime gets on non-Apple platforms it is not going to succeed. We already have a Yahoo app that offers video chat on iPhones, Android phones and PCs/Macs with anexisting large user base. I wouldn't be surprised to see MSN, GTalk and Skype quickly follow and maybe Facebook will join in as well.

I'm sure iChat will be updated, either independently or with the next OS upgrade to include Facetime. Maybe that's the secret new app in iLife? I also wouldn't be surprised to see it get somehow bundled with an upcoming update to the PC version of iTunes just to get it in more people's homes to support usage of it on Apple's mobile devices. Either that or someone will make a PC version once Apple releases the standard for use by 3rd parties. Finally, I suspect a future update to the AppleTV software will support plugging in a web cam to the USB port so you can do Facetime from your living room. That would be a reason for getting grandma and grandpa an AppleTV even if they never use any of it's other features.
post #16 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orlando View Post

Unless Facetime gets on non-Apple platforms it is not going to succeed. We already have a Yahoo app that offers video chat on iPhones, Android phones and PCs/Macs with anexisting large user base. I wouldn't be surprised to see MSN, GTalk and Skype quickly follow and maybe Facebook will join in as well.

It will, but in typical Apple Style they must make sure they have it first on all their devices before they release the standard allowing others to build for it as well. Hopefully the iPad will be last refresh before they release it, there are plenty of companies ready to adopt it into their software and since it would be a protocol (not a service) it should be something that existing video services can tie into. Imagine being able to Video Skype with Yahoo users or MSN video with gmail users, these are the sorts of things that would be possible if these companies build in support for FaceTime protocols.

FaceTime, like existing iChat video chat, doesn't need a server but creates a direct computer to computer connection. All it needs is some initial way to establish contact between the 2 computers, which means that can be done through all kinds of services & not just an IM service. E-mail, SMS, Jabber, MSN, AOL, Yahoo, Gadu-Gadu, IRC, ICQ...the list could go on & on, possibilities are limited to application support & not service/server support so as long as users have software that utilizes the protocol a connection should be possible.
post #17 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wiggin View Post

I'm sure iChat will be updated, either independently or with the next OS upgrade to include Facetime. Maybe that's the secret new app in iLife? I also wouldn't be surprised to see it get somehow bundled with an upcoming update to the PC version of iTunes just to get it in more people's homes to support usage of it on Apple's mobile devices. Either that or someone will make a PC version once Apple releases the standard for use by 3rd parties. Finally, I suspect a future update to the AppleTV software will support plugging in a web cam to the USB port so you can do Facetime from your living room. That would be a reason for getting grandma and grandpa an AppleTV even if they never use any of it's other features.

I think adding it to iLife makes sense. Waiting a year or more after Apple demos Mac OS X 10.7 with iChat with FaceTime won't do us or them any favours.

I wouldn't think they'd make a Windows version. If they were going to do that then I'd think they would have kept FaceTime locked and protected.
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post #18 of 39
From Investopedia...

The bottom line is a stock split is used primarily by companies that have seen their share prices increase substantially and although the number of outstanding shares increases and price per share decreases, the market capitalization (and the value of the company) does not change. As a result, stock splits help make shares more affordable to small investors and provides greater marketability and liquidity in the market.
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post #19 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wiggin View Post

I'm sure iChat will be updated, either independently or with the next OS upgrade to include Facetime. Maybe that's the secret new app in iLife? I also wouldn't be surprised to see it get somehow bundled with an upcoming update to the PC version of iTunes just to get it in more people's homes to support usage of it on Apple's mobile devices. Either that or someone will make a PC version once Apple releases the standard for use by 3rd parties. Finally, I suspect a future update to the AppleTV software will support plugging in a web cam to the USB port so you can do Facetime from your living room. That would be a reason for getting grandma and grandpa an AppleTV even if they never use any of it's other features.

The really, really big factor to consider is whether a live webcam will be connectable to the current iPad, either via Bluetooth or the Camera Connection Kit. Several have raised this question, especially in another AI FaceTime thread on Sept. 10, but I haven't seen anyone answer definitively that it will or will not be possible.

Does anyone with developer insight care to speculate?
post #20 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ Web View Post

Always considered it the domain of nepots and mistresses.

Do you mean nepotists?

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post #21 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kibitzer View Post

Do you mean nepotists?

I think he did, but I like the coinage of nepots better--kind cool! Sorta like nepotists are people who give out such favoritism, and nepots are the beneficiaries.
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post #22 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post

I think he did, but I like the coinage of nepots better--kind cool! Sorta like nepotists are people who give out such favoritism, and nepots are the beneficiaries.

nepots is a great new word. The problem with higher priced stock is that it is impossible to buy a $505 stock for $500, but you can buy lots of $10 stock. The full market capitalistion may still be the same, of course, but that means nothing to small investors.
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post #23 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post

The really, really big factor to consider is whether a live webcam will be connectable to the current iPad, either via Bluetooth or the Camera Connection Kit. Several have raised this question, especially in another AI FaceTime thread on Sept. 10, but I haven't seen anyone answer definitively that it will or will not be possible.

Does anyone with developer insight care to speculate?

The most rational approach would be via a dedicated dock connector. At least with Apples mindset. For the rest of us this is one of the reasons we wish iPad had a dedicated USB port. In some cases an external camera makes sense.

As to Bluetooth I suppose it would be possible but dependent on the firm ware in the Bluetooth chip and profile support in iOS. The firmware we don't know about, but iOS coild be updated at anytime.

As to a definitive answer that isn't possible as mind reading is an unproven ability. However Factime is a major initiative for Apple so anything is possible.
post #24 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Actually, there is very little fact in the quoted analysis.

We'll see more facts on Monday. However, Apple breaks out its numbers in ways where people still must guess some of the details (e.g., they do not separate iPod touch sales from other iPods, they don't break out sales by country).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post

I think he did, but I like the coinage of nepots better--kind cool! Sorta like nepotists are people who give out such favoritism, and nepots are the beneficiaries.

I was aware I was coining an undocumented plural but taking creative license is one of my shortcomings. Nepotists works for me too.
post #25 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Nope. Splits are little more than a gimmick.

so are analysts!
post #26 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Really?
  • That is 3.33 million iPhones per month
    (Isnt that slightly under what they are doing now?)

  • That is 0.88 million iPads per month, assuming another April release for the iPad with FaceTime
    (Arent they doing about 3 million per month now?)

  • That is 1.25 million iPod Touches per month
    (Arent they on par with the iPhone unit sales?)

Ah, the real trick of analysts - if they can pull it off, which is, however, rare - is to have the stock move up (i.e., they get the direction of the prediction right), but it does so more than predicted!
post #27 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kibitzer View Post

Do you mean nepotists?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post

I think he did, but I like the coinage of nepots better--kind cool! Sorta like nepotists are people who give out such favoritism, and nepots are the beneficiaries.

I agree. I like that word too! (Sounds like despots).
post #28 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

The most rational approach would be via a dedicated dock connector. At least with Apples mindset. For the rest of us this is one of the reasons we wish iPad had a dedicated USB port. In some cases an external camera makes sense.

As to Bluetooth I suppose it would be possible but dependent on the firm ware in the Bluetooth chip and profile support in iOS. The firmware we don't know about, but iOS coild be updated at anytime.

As to a definitive answer that isn't possible as mind reading is an unproven ability. However Factime is a major initiative for Apple so anything is possible.

At least the Wiz isn't ruling it out. Anybody else?

It would triple the value of the already-most-valuable iPad: video monitor for USB cameras, front, back and sideways FaceTime device, and maybe a webcam broadcast terminal, and so on.
post #29 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by hezetation View Post

It will, but in typical Apple Style they must make sure they have it first on all their devices before they release the standard allowing others to build for it as well. Hopefully the iPad will be last refresh before they release it, there are plenty of companies ready to adopt it into their software and since it would be a protocol (not a service) it should be something that existing video services can tie into. Imagine being able to Video Skype with Yahoo users or MSN video with gmail users, these are the sorts of things that would be possible if these companies build in support for FaceTime protocols.

I think it is highly unlikely these other companies are going to adopt Facetime. They already have their own video chat technology and large numbers of users. The most likely scenario is they will release iPhone and Android clients just as Yahoo has already done. They don't need to adopt Facetime to offer video chat on the iPhone.
post #30 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orlando View Post

I think it is highly unlikely these other companies are going to adopt Facetime. They already have their own video chat technology and large numbers of users. The most likely scenario is they will release iPhone and Android clients just as Yahoo has already done. They don't need to adopt Facetime to offer video chat on the iPhone.

If they think they can sell their product more by including it then they will. If its better than other options and gets widely adopted they may have to adopt it to prevent losing customers.

Apples iPhone, Touch and iPad are widely popular. While the iPad currently doesnt have a front-facing camera it seems likely it will get it with FaceTime.

Remember, youre thinking of MSN, Yahoo and Skype. Dont forget there are many apps for desktop OSes and mobile OSes that interact with these backend protocols. Adding FaceTime will benefit these 3rd-party apps. On top of that, Cisco CEO(?) has mentioned adding FaceTime already.
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post #31 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

If they think they can sell their product more by including it then they will. If its better than other options and gets widely adopted they may have to adopt it to prevent losing customers.

Except because Facetime is only on Apple platforms it is unlikely to be widely adopted.
post #32 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orlando View Post

Except because Facetime is only on Apple platforms it is unlikely to be widely adopted.

So youre saying that FaceTime specs will not publicized after all?
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post #33 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

So you’re saying that FaceTime specs will not publicized after all?

No I am saying the other major video chat services won't adopt them. They don't need to. They already have large numbers of active users and can simply write iOS apps to put their service on iOS devices.
post #34 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orlando View Post

No I am saying the other major video chat services won't adopt them. They don't need to. They already have large numbers of active users and can simply write iOS apps to put their service on iOS devices.

Then you didnt understand what I wrote as I wasnt limiting FaceTime to just iOS but to any all apps on any and all OSes that with to incorporate the protocol.
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post #35 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Then you didnt understand what I wrote as I wasnt limiting FaceTime to just iOS but to any all apps on any and all OSes that with to incorporate the protocol.

Facetime is new. Yahoo is pretty well established with huge numbers of users. Which is more likely: getting everyone else to create new Facetime accounts or you downloading the Yahoo app to your iPhone and using your existing Yahoo account with all your existing Yahoo contacts (*).


(*) Maybe you don't use Yahoo, so feel free to substitute whichever IM service you primarily use into the above.
post #36 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orlando View Post

Facetime is new. Yahoo is pretty well established with huge numbers of users. Which is more likely: getting everyone else to create new Facetime accounts or you downloading the Yahoo app to your iPhone and using your existing Yahoo account with all your existing Yahoo contacts (*).


(*) Maybe you don't use Yahoo, so feel free to substitute whichever IM service you primarily use into the above.

Create FaceTime accounts? :sigh:
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post #37 of 39
Apple over $300/share in pre-market trading. Milestone for Apple.
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post #38 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Create FaceTime accounts? :sigh:

So lets say you have a Facetime device and I have a PC. How are else you expecting to be able to connect to me? You need me to download a compatible client (which doesn't yet exist) and connecting to Facetime so it can send requests to my PC. Which is more easy and therefore more likely: all your contacts doing this or you downloading an app to your iPhone so you can immediately access all you existing contacts?
post #39 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orlando View Post

So lets say you have a Facetime device and I have a PC. How are else you expecting to be able to connect to me? You need me to download a compatible client (which doesn't yet exist) and connecting to Facetime so it can send requests to my PC. Which is more easy and therefore more likely: all your contacts doing this or you downloading an app to your iPhone so you can immediately access all you existing contacts?

Yeah, once it's in place an mature. You seem to only be thinking about were this new tech is today in the market, which only on two of Apple's new iDevices. You need to look at the big picture and ask yourself WHY Apple decided to made this tech open source and not limit it to hundreds of millions of iDevices.

Note that no video conferencing tech has ever had the option for wide appeal, usage and capabilities across any and all devices until now. That isn't saybit will be successful but it's the first that has the chance to be.

To me, your argument is akin to saying years ago that WebKit is a pointless endeavor because Safari is only on Macs. Now look at WebKit; if not now, then soon it will be the most commonly installed browser engine in the world. Heck, there are even OSea that use it for the UI.
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