Originally Posted by chronster
Tablets like the iPad or Galaxy Tab WILL eat into netbook and notebook sales, but only by a certain portion. It won't overtake netbooks and notebooks because there's still a genuine need for a notebook over an ipad in many different situations.
Imagine if all can openers were right-handed, then a company released left-handed can openers. Well at first, the left-handed can openers may seem as though they are overtaking the right-handed ones, but the reality is, it's not going to overtake them, just take the people away who need them.
People who buy an ipad buy one to do the basic essentials that an ipad does. Prior to the ipad they had to buy a netbook or notebook. Had the ipad always been around, the netbook and notebook market would not have done so well because there would have been that option for people who were looking for it.
This idea that the ipad will end netbooks at least is absolutely inane.
Look at it a little differently:
-- iOS is getting more robust as we speak, as is Android
-- iOS has largely completed the transition to the larger form factor
-- I am not sure if Android will make the transition, or will be replaced,
-- In any case we will likely have 3 (possibly 4) robust ARM OSes
-- Much of what Tablets and Netbooks do will be done on the the cloud or WiFi LAN
-- At some point the tablet will reach parity with the netbook in terms of price and work that can realistically
The question is when?
For some uses and users that has already happened.
When do you think an ARM tablet and ARM OS will be robust enough displace the vast majority of netbooks?
Asked another way:
1) how many apps do you use on the netbook that don't/won't have a tablet (or tablet/cloud or tablet/WiFi LAN) equivalent?
2) when will that happen?
It is following example is certainly not perfect-- but it's damn close.
You can be almost anywhere in the world.
1) Pick your speed
-- If within WiFi range use that (Home LAN, Office, Campus, City Center, HotSpot, etc.)
-- If not use cell!
-- if neither use locally stored docs & apps only.
2) Pick your compute power
-- cloud server
-- VNC to your home/institution/business computer
-- the mobile tablet device only
3) Pick your app
-- All the normal mobile apps (mail, calendar, browser, contacts, etc)
-- spreadsheet, wordprocessing, database
-- proprietary apps for special uses
I am sitting here (somewhere) with my iPad.
If I need some files I can access them:
-- locally on the device
-- WiFi or cell to my LAN
-- WebDav server like iDisk
-- VNC to any PC permitting it.
So, I grab an .xls or .doc file from somewhere, manipulate it, modify it, and put it back *
If I want, I can create a preso with KeyNote, or a new wp or ss document -- even setup a new db -- grabbing images, music, videos, etc., as needed, from wherever I can connect.
Honestly, there are a few rough spots, such as: iPad Pages and Numbers apps don't support everything
in their MS Office equivalents -- but, then, neither does MS Office for the Mac.
* As I type this, there is no iOS-provided way to wirelessly upload files to another computer or the cloud (other than email). However there are reasonable-priced apps that can do this. I suspect that this will be provided by iOS in the very near future-- along with the ability to navigate and share files among iOS apps.
Yes, I can't do Heavy CAD, Video Editing or PhotoShopping on the iPad -- but you can't do that on a netbook either. (Actually there are some pretty good apps for these on the iPa
d & more coming).
What I am trying to say is that at some point, the iPad becomes more usable
[for many people] than a netbook
or even a laptop.
that has already happened -- I have a 17" AluBook that hasn't been turned on since I got the iPad.
YMMV, but sooner, rather than later, the iPad or some follow-on tablet with a tablet OS, will be able to do what you want-- better, faster, easier (maybe even smoother
than a netbook.
I think the tipping point will be sometime next year.