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RBC sees Apple announcing 13.5 million iPhone "blowout" quarter

post #1 of 36
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Financial experts at the Royal Bank of Canada are out with a bullish report on Apple friday, saying they expect the company to report next week a blowout quarter in which sales exceeded $20 billion and include the sale of a record 13.5 million iPhones.

The report arrives in stark contrast to expectations also published Friday by rival investment research firm Piper Jaffray, which attempted to dial back expectations that Apple could blow past its own guidance and that of Wall Street given perceptions that the company couldn't manufacture enough of its most popular products to drive significant revenue upside.

"Big Q4 beat expected as Apple surpasses $300/share...with innovation, future opportunities as strong as ever," RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky wrote in a note to clients. Specifically, the analyst is forecasting the company to report earnings of $4.48 per share on sales of $20.3 billion.

Specifically, Abramsky said he expects those earnings to be driven by shipments of 5 million iPads, 3.7 million Macs, 9.4 million iPods, and a record-shattering 13.5 million iPhones.

As such, the analyst raised his fiscal year 2010 estimates on the electronics maker to $15 in per-share earnings on sales of 65.2 billion, as well as his fiscal year 2011 estimates to $19.27 per share in earnings on sales of a whopping $86.2 billion.

"Valuation remains compelling at 14x FTM P/E cash-adj," Abramsky wrote. "$280B market cap notwithstanding, we foresee further upside for the shares, as Apple remains well positioned against three large, growing, under-penetrated market opportunities (iPhone, iPad and Mac) and has "Cascades of Cool", i.e., subsequent product generations and accessory cycles."

The analyst reiterated his Outperform rating and $350 price target on shares of Apple.
post #2 of 36
This is the bank behind RIM if I am not mistaken isn't it? Good of them to be unbiased in their reporting. This is nicely said: "Apple remains well positioned against three large, growing, under-penetrated market opportunities (iPhone, iPad and Mac) and has "Cascades of Cool", i.e., subsequent product generations and accessory cycles."

Apple has room to quadruple it's market cap I believe.
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post #3 of 36
Those numbers are way above average, I dont think they will come true. If they do, AAPL may survive the earnings without plunging right after like they usually do
post #4 of 36
I'm Sorry Mike Abramsky, I can't hear you. You seem to be choking on your pride.

"The RBC analyst maintained his Underperform rating and bleak $70 price target on shares of Apple."

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles..._momentum.html
post #5 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by hopeforthehopeless View Post

I'm Sorry Mike Abramsky, I can't hear you. You seem to be choking on your pride.

"The RBC analyst maintained his Underperform rating and bleak $70 price target on shares of Apple."

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles..._momentum.html

Gene Munster must be getting the brown envelopes now.

.
post #6 of 36
13.5M iPhones?! Gee... now you telling us after the stock hits $310!
post #7 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

Those numbers are way above average, I dont think they will come true. If they do, AAPL may survive the earnings without plunging right after like they usually do

That's not usual at all. Apple has to beat the street by a significant margin to see an immediate upswing in share prices, but lately they've been doing just that.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #8 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

This is the bank behind RIM if I am not mistaken isn't it? Good of them to be unbiased in their reporting. This is nicely said: "Apple remains well positioned against three large, growing, under-penetrated market opportunities (iPhone, iPad and Mac) and has "Cascades of Cool", i.e., subsequent product generations and accessory cycles."

Apple has room to quadruple it's market cap I believe.

Right now AAPL market cap is within $48 Billion of XOM.

I would like to see Apple do a 4:1 split to make the stock more affordable to the small investor.

.
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post #9 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

Those numbers are way above average, I dont think they will come true. If they do, AAPL may survive the earnings without plunging right after like they usually do

Actually, he is lower than some have estimated for Macs and iPads.

.
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"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
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post #10 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Right now AAPL market cap is within $48 Billion of XOM.

I would like to see Apple do a 4:1 split to make the stock more affordable to the small investor.

.

Me too for sure but you know we will get shouted down and told that "It makes noooo difference".
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
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post #11 of 36
Did we get any real hints last quarter on the actual margin on iPads? I keep worrying that the iPad revenue will offset some of the overly optimistic iPhone sales numbers, but will fail on margin.

Also noticed something interesting the other day on the Apple store: ship times for a 3GS were a week, but a 4 was 3-5 days.

Time to pop the cork on some champaign after today's run! (Not withstanding the run up of the past two weeks!!)
post #12 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Did we get any real hints last quarter on the actual margin on iPads? I keep worrying that the iPad revenue will offset some of the overly optimistic iPhone sales numbers, but will fail on margin.

Also noticed something interesting the other day on the Apple store: ship times for a 3GS were a week, but a 4 was 3-5 days.

Time to pop the cork on some champaign after today's run! (Not withstanding the run up of the past two weeks!!)

I've read Apple make as much as 50% margin on iPad but that could be overly optimistic.

http://www.computerworld.com/s/artic..._each_499_iPad

http://www.tuaw.com/2010/02/03/that-...nalyst-is-ela/
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post #13 of 36
13.5 million units is an incredible amount for any mobile device; that's about 150 000 units per day on average. wow!
post #14 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Did we get any real hints last quarter on the actual margin on iPads? I keep worrying that the iPad revenue will offset some of the overly optimistic iPhone sales numbers, but will fail on margin.

That is exactly what I was thinking. I imagine that the iPad will be a bonanza, but they did price it much lower than anyone was expecting and there hasn't been much time for economies of scale to kick in. They may have made a choice to sacrifice margins at the outset to kickstart the whole tablet thing (which clearly they did!).
If they did, it would be a fundamentally different approach than their usual new product rollout where they start with a premium price point and then become more competitive over time.
Quote:
Also noticed something interesting the other day on the Apple store: ship times for a 3GS were a week, but a 4 was 3-5 days.

I'm not sure what this means...
Quote:
Time to pop the cork on some champaign after today's run! (Not withstanding the run up of the past two weeks!!)

It has been a nice run after being stuck with a 270 ceiling for what felt like years...
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
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Progress is a comfortable disease
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post #15 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post


It has been a nice run after being stuck with a 270 ceiling for what felt like years...

Too right! I feel like popping a cork tonight ...
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post #16 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Too right! I feel like popping a cork tonight ...

Enjoy!
I'm not in for enough to justify champaign. Maybe I'll have some ginger ale...

(Now, if they pull a Google and go up 50+ in a day, well, then I will be with you on the true bubbly. )
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
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Progress is a comfortable disease
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post #17 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

Enjoy!
I'm not in for enough to justify champaign. Maybe I'll have some ginger ale...

(Now, if they pull a Google and go up 50+ in a day, well, then I will be with you on the true bubbly. )

I bet Soli is already out buying a new car :lol

Yes Google was something else today wasn't it?
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post #18 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Me too for sure but you know we will get shouted down and told that "It makes noooo difference".

If they don't announce a split, I'll be sooo angry, because I'm an idiot.
post #19 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

If they don't announce a split, I'll be sooo angry, because I'm an idiot.

I will just be sad and hurt, because Apple's board of directors don't understand how it is in their best interests to allow me to own $80 worth of the $285,000,000,000 worth of AAPL out there (and because I'm an idiot)
post #20 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by quinney View Post

I will just be sad and hurt, because Apple's board of directors don't understand how it is in their best interests to allow me to own $80 worth of the $285,000,000,000 worth of AAPL out there (and because I'm an idiot)

I'm glad you framed it that way. Explain why they care (with specific emphasis on why they BENEFIT) whether you or the person selling the shares to you is the owner of those shares?
post #21 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

I'm glad you framed it that way. Explain why they care (with specific emphasis on why they BENEFIT) whether you or the person selling the shares to you is the owner of those shares?

My point was that they DON'T benefit. (facetious, like when you said you would be angry).

In fact, there are administrative costs associated with splitting shares and making required communications with a larger number of shareholders. The demand driven stock price increase from a number of $80 investors would not pay for these costs.
post #22 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by quinney View Post

My point was that they DON'T benefit. (facetious, like when you said you would be angry).

In fact, there are administrative costs associated with splitting shares and making required communications with a larger number of shareholders. The demand driven stock price increase from a number of $80 investors would not pay for these costs.

My bad - I didn't catch the sarcasm. Do'h!
post #23 of 36
.

AAPL finished at $316.40 up $14.09 after hours.

.
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post #24 of 36
There are people who bought contract free phones C$ 817. The difference is huge. I myself bought 3 for my family. Wondering how many people have bought contract free. will be good to know the stats.
post #25 of 36
I think we'll see over 5 million iPads and over 4 million Macs - never to look back.
post #26 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

.

AAPL finished at $316.40 up $14.09 after hours.

.

AAPL closed regular trading at $314.74 and added $1.66 after hours.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #27 of 36
Apple is one of the most volatile stocks, and it's stock value goes up and down based upon rumor and reports, regardless of their veracity. The market leaders just this year, admitted to planting stories that would push stock prices up or down.

It's a great way to make big bucks in quite short term. If RBC has a position in AAPL, and wants sell off some of AAPL stock for a healthy profit, what better way than to talk it up at the same time your selling the same. The stock gained over 20 points this week, 12 points just today (Friday), starting at about $195 on Monday morning, and ending at $215 at closing Friday -- a 10% gain in just one week.

Without doing anything productive for the economy, the financiers and margin players made big bucks on AAPL. Say, a meager $1,000,000 investment on Monday would yield a profit of $100,000 by Friday. Pity the sucker who bought AAPL at $215.

Talk it down next week, and buy it cheap, wait another week, talk it up and sell at a high again.
post #28 of 36
If the recent past is any guide, prepare for a post-announcement swoon in the stock.

Just ignore it, and stay put. (At least, that's what I'll do).
post #29 of 36
.

You Decide:



.
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
Reply
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
Reply
post #30 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

.

AAPL finished at $316.40 up $14.09 after hours.

.

That's one heck of a reaction from AAPL stock... wow.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #31 of 36
Yeh. Long term past, Apple has done well both in terms of stock price, but most importantly, has executed their vision with unsurpassed perfection. Short term, Apple's stock has risen more than likely justified. That the bubble is out of housing, the new bubble is inflating stock and gold prices.

The most honest and accurate understanding of the US Economy comes from the Onion whose sarcasm seems so much more accurate than Forbes and the WSJ. July 2008, they wrote.

"A panel of top business leaders testified before Congress about the worsening recession Monday, demanding the government provide Americans with a new irresponsible and largely illusory economic bubble in which to invest.

"What America needs right now is not more talk and long-term strategy, but a concrete way to create more imaginary wealth in the very immediate future," said Thomas Jenkins, CFO of the Boston-area Jenkins Financial Group, a bubble-based investment firm. "We are in a crisis, and that crisis demands an unviable short-term solution."
post #32 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by quinney View Post

My point was that they DON'T benefit. (facetious, like when you said you would be angry).

In fact, there are administrative costs associated with splitting shares and making required communications with a larger number of shareholders. The demand driven stock price increase from a number of $80 investors would not pay for these costs.

Dang. If only Apple listed to this logic from the start and never split. What were they thinking?
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
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post #33 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

.

You Decide:



.

That's Microsoft upside down isn't it?
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post #34 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

.

You Decide:



.

Nice - for most people though the important part of that chart is off the screen to the right.

post #35 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by waldobushman View Post

Apple is one of the most volatile stocks, and it's stock value goes up and down based upon rumor and reports, regardless of their veracity. The market leaders just this year, admitted to planting stories that would push stock prices up or down.

It's a great way to make big bucks in quite short term. If RBC has a position in AAPL, and wants sell off some of AAPL stock for a healthy profit, what better way than to talk it up at the same time your selling the same. The stock gained over 20 points this week, 12 points just today (Friday), starting at about $195 on Monday morning, and ending at $215 at closing Friday -- a 10% gain in just one week.

Without doing anything productive for the economy, the financiers and margin players made big bucks on AAPL. Say, a meager $1,000,000 investment on Monday would yield a profit of $100,000 by Friday. Pity the sucker who bought AAPL at $215.

Talk it down next week, and buy it cheap, wait another week, talk it up and sell at a high again.

It's all a conspiracy then? Who'd have known that these analysts were engaging in such blatantly illegal behavior on a daily basis?
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #36 of 36
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

It's all a conspiracy then? Who'd have known that these analysts were engaging in such blatantly illegal behavior on a daily basis?

Yes, as the OP stated: "It's a great way to make big bucks in quite short term." Proves the old adage that criminals are really stupid. Anyone dumb enough to think that's a good idea would be a very easy criminal to catch indeed.
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