Wall Street wowed by Apple's iPhone sales, cautious on iPad - Page 2

Yeah... don't you guys know by now that everyone on Wall Street are a bunch of straight shooters.

No wonder Wall Street symbolizes greed and cock-suckery: Apple blows away every singe prediction (maybe they're pissed 'cause no one got it right?), and yet they hang the company for selling 46 too few iPads.

Next quarter Apple provides Shawn Wu with a hand job?

One drag on iPad sales would be rumours that an update was imminent. I'm sure a few people held back thinking a revision was on the verge of being released in time for the holiday buying season.

Clearly that's not going to happen so unless you're holding out for Version 2, it's take the plunge now if you're in the market for an iPad. I'm not saying that this factor was huge but I do think the rumours had some impact.

That said, it is absurd to regard selling more than 4 million iPads in one quarter cause for concern.

Yeah, it was its 2nd quarter, and its first full quarter of sales, and first full quarter of sales for all models while still ramping up to other countries and outlets. I actually expected more if they could produce more, but I cant see how anyone can think the sales were paltry.

As for the refresh, that just didnt make sense to me, especially when everything showed the sales on the rise.

Here is a little investment tip with Apple, buy on good rumors and sell on good fact, also sell on bad rumors and buy on good facts. For years I had made money on this simple principle since the market drives the stock up on all the great success rumors and when the apple reveals reality then the stock tanks like it did today. After things settle out you jump back in and ride the stock up on all the good rumors and sell again when the facts are known.

Anyone buying and selling apple knows this and it been this way for years, grant it for the last year or so this did not happen as much it was hard to make it on the ups and downs on rumors.

So if you sold yesterday and then re-invested today you just add 6% more apple stock to your portfolio, and if you have done this many times you could be sitting on lots of stock. Some of these swings were 10% to 20% in a matter of a few days.

So all you people who think the analysis have no clue, well they do and cause apple stock to bounce up and down like this is making people money.

Exactly. This whole smoke and mirror game run by people called analysts is the modern day equivalent of an old gypsy lady in a tent looking in a glass bowl.

And this means what, that all of your most imaginative conspiracy theories are validated? As if they would not be, no matter what happens. Take a deep breath. Take another. Stop to consider that the markets operate on mass behavior, and you cannot find logic in mass behavior no matter how hard you look. Now check what the analysts are saying this morning. Any downgrades of AAPL? Any lowered one-year target prices? No, and no. If fact, several have raised them.

Take a deep breath. I highly recommend it.

I agree that it was improbable that Apple would bring out an iPad revision in this calendar year but the fact remains those rumours were out there.

By the way, I thought Jobs made some rather telling comments regarding the direction Apple is headed with the tablet form factor. Clearly a 7" iPad is not being considered. If Apple intends to expand its tablet offerings, I would think a larger companion to the 9.7" version is more likely considering Jobs said that 9.7" is the minimum size for a decent tablet.

Were it not for the need to price the iPad aggressively and current technology not able to develop a light enough device, I'm sure Apple would have gone even larger. Also, if you're going to bring out a $1,000 tablet, it better be capable of doing what you can do now with a typical laptop. When technology allows for a light enough larger tablet with more muscle than the current iPad, I'm sure that product will surface. But a 7" iPad, is not going to happen. I argued for a 7" device until I checked out an iPad in the flesh and found that it isn't nearly as large as I had imagined. I wouldn't want one smaller though I would welcome a slightly larger screen on future iPhone/Touch models.

Jobs also stated that he considers the tablet serving as a laptop replacement being an inevitability. Clearly he sees it as a form factor better suited to portable scenarios. The challenge is to develop products with more functionality than the first-gen iPad. That's going to happen, certainly. The pace at which it happens will determine how quickly the laptop faces a serious challenge from the tablet. Right now the iPad is a laptop replacement if one is thinking in terms of a portable complimentary device to a decent desktop setup. The iPad as a standalone computer is, undoubtedly, what Apple will work towards. I'm predicting three years for that to happen.

You have to wonder how many more years it would have taken for us to get to where I'm sure we'll be five years from now were Jobs and Apple not around to lead the way.

My one line gets how many from you... and I should take a deep breath.

Yeah, I prefer to say what I really mean. That's a whole lotta laughs.

Let's get this straight, and decide who are the idiots here. And, who should be punished with ceremonial public lashings, for misleading lemming speculators in the stock market.

[I stopped calling the stock market as an investing meidum for a long time-- a greater part are speculators that are being manipulated by a few who capitalize in the greed for quick profit by clueless "so-called investors.]

Immediately after the Jan 2010 introduction of the iPad, majority of professional analysts were sceptical that the iPad was going to find a market. Many in fact befieved the iPad is doomed as nobody wants it. Afterall, the iPad was just supposed to be a big "iPod touch". Wasn't that the mantra of most professional analysts and bloggers, after the introduction in January 2010?

To ridicule the iPad further, they latched on the name -- as poor choice because some stupid person associated the name of the new product with feminine hygiene. So, who would want to buy that? And, didn't many bloggers simply repeated this ridicule so that it became viral, expecting the average consumer perhaps to simply accept the analysts and bloggers warped thinking if not outright prejudiced and worse disinformation, and that no consumer would buy the iPad, because it is nothing but a big iPod touch?

As far as I can recall, the most optimistic projection was at most 2million iPads for the entire year of 2010. Then, when the first number came based from the pre-orders came in, did'nt a number of professional analysts tried to outdo each other who could provide the highest forecast sales.

If I remember correctly, Gene Munster of Piper Jaffrey, flip-flopped going so low, then high, and even higher just a few days before Steve Jobs announced the first weekend sales, and he was way way off by about half?

The Q3 2010 after the iPad was out, the actual iPad sales was way more than the expectations (more than 3milion if I recall correctly). Then, many of the analysts were tyring to outdo each other. Ignoring the fact that Apple, by its own admission, could not manufacture enough iPads. They went ahead with all those forecast that turned out to be way to high -- more than likely to compensate for their initial impression that the iPad is:

• nothing but a big iPod touch
• no one would buy "it" because no consumer, especially males would be caught dead having an accessory that is associated with feminine hygiene
• it would cater only to Apple fanboys, at best selling 2million in 2010, and will then peter out
• when the other companies will come out with their tablet products, they will overwhelm the closed garden of Apple

No question about it: "The iPad is doomed."

Were they so wrong then, and they were so wrong when they swung so wildly in the other direction -- to cover their gaffe.

Now, having found to be no true prophets with the power to divine. they punish Apple -- with their arrogant displeasure -- because their incorrect prophecies did not come out right?

No wonder we are in big trouble, because of these stupid analysts, and their idiotic anlyses. And, there are enough speculators to follow them.

CGC

N.B. In all fairness, even the unaffiliated analysts who were really into Apple analysis did not get the numbers correctly, in fact, some of those with worse overexpectiations, for the iPad sales during the Q4 2010

The iPad is the most successful consumer electronics product of all time. And it did that as a relatively expensive product during the worst recession in 80 years.

Of course Apple's margins dropped a bit...as Apple moves more and more into a consumer market, margins will drop. The supermarket business is a 3% business.

Any other company would KILL for Apple's margins.

It took DVD players 21 months to reach just 1 million units.
It took DVRs 53 months.
Cable/Satellite TV individually took 144 months to reach 1 million subscribers.

Apple does it in one quarter and the market is complaining?

Apple breaks records every single quarter, is running on all cylinders, has an amazing amount of cash and no debt.

But this is not unusual. Before Apple entered the iPhone space, it also usually broke records every quarter (although not on the scale it does today). Every time Apple announced something great, the stock price fell. They announced nothing and the stock price rose.

If every company had the problem that Apple has had: that they can't manufacture enough units of their newest products, there would have been no recession.

While the stock is running up in the weeks before the report, the "expectations" get run up very high to bring in all the rubes possible. Then, what's ALWAYS going to happen is that there will be profit-taking from the big boys, mostly. In order to jar loose the stocks from the rubes for the lowest price, to take their eyes off longterm predictions, the "failure to meet expectations" is necessary. The selloff occurs, the money is pocketed, and then the stock rises again.

If they made a mistake, and didn't put the "expectations" high enough, then they'll pick on something like the "disappointing" sales of the iPad.

I don't have any problem with profit-taking. Apple pays no dividends, so that's how you make money on the rise of their stock. I just wish they would stop the expectations game to rationalize it.

The Pot calls the kettle Black.

What Wall Street says Does not hold too much water with me. Reason these are the same people who needed some major help to get them out of a Jam their great wisdom got themselves into, Only a few months ago. Besides during the problems they caused by the lack of wisdom. Apple made profit each quarter, which is more than can be said of some of the likes of them.

So in a word "Shut-up".

Once again you fail to perceive the obvious It's no secret that the market pumps and dumps. Are they conspiring? Yes. Is it a conspiracy in the paranoid sense of the word? No.

It's just the way of the world, make the most of it, short some AAPL.

Here's an example of a paranoid conspiracy: As you are always on here like clockwork denying the clear and obvious market manipulation every 3 months, I'm suspecting you may just be one of them.

Who is "the market" of which you speak? You make it sound like one person, or just a few. Do you even know what a "pump and dump" is?

Yes, I guess I fail to perceive your version of "the obvious."

You have a few very large players, but you also have many investors acting as one.

Go here...

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/mb/AAPL

Then tell me there's no deliberate fud and manipulation going on...


!!!!

Wait, are you actually citing the message boards at Yahoo in support of your argument? That has to be the lamest possible evidence of anything but the existence of loudmouths with delusions of grandeur.

Agreed. Biggest bunch of morons on the internet. But rather than attacking their character (which is irrelevant to the conversation), try and see the point I'm making. It's an example of deliberate manipulation at the low level but acting as one. There are many examples like this across the net.

How can you not fathom the collective orchestrated manipulation? But I'm glad you and many others do not.

Heres to the naive. May they forever be blindfolded.

Seems all we can agree upon is the character of Yahoo Finance board posters, so why not start there? They have no more power to manipulate stocks than the moon cares about howling dogs.

AAPL is not some penny stock. It trades 25 million shares on a typical day. Those goofballs on Yahoo (and the other similar boards) are pissing into the wind, and that's giving them more credit than they deserve.

The goofballs do not have the monopoly on manipulation. The same mentality exists throughout the system and with some of the big players.
Lets take premarket for instance, it would not take a fortune to skew the price before open to affect buying decisions. Now I know that people consider manipulating AAPL via this method and others because I have been in a room of investors who have discussed the benefits of such an orchestrated 'manipulation'.And how relatively easy it would have been given the relatively small volume of trades. Fairly certain we are not the first investors to consider this. Fairly certain it's common place to try and maximise profits via an array of psychological techniques. Some techniques are not illegal. Some push it till it's illegal but don't get caught. Others get caught. People are corrupt, it's a fact of life. And just because it's illegal, does not mean people don't do it. They just try not to get caught.
Dealing drugs is illegal but people still take the risks for profit. Why do you think the financial world would be any different?

The Yahoo goofballs being at the extreme low end of all this, but vocal and visual, hence why I pointed them out as easy transparent examples. The goofballs are akin to a crack dealers walking the streets, easy to point out and blatant.

There's nothing quite like a vague, sweeping assertion to really make an argument sing.

Believe it or not, people can buy and sell stocks whenever they like and in whatever quantity they can afford (or not afford, in the case of margin buying). This activity is not manipulation, it is buying and selling. As you say, it's not illegal or immoral. If it was, the markets would not function as markets. So what you term manipulation is the ordinary functioning of the markets, as nearly as I can tell. What beyond ordinary buying and selling you are suggesting is going on here is entirely unclear to me.

Even more importantly, except for day-traders, none of this so-called "manipulation" matters.

Oh I give in. You are performing the straw man.

My point is that there is a thin line between what can be called market forces and what is illegal. Clearly many of the 'goofballs' are acting illegally, but they are such small fry the authorities just leave them alone. But the mentality does not stop there. It is endemic throughout.
If you believe that there is no corruption in the system then you are naive beyond redemption.

I wish we lived in your squeaky clean world, but unfortunately we don't. Actually no, I'm pretty happy as it is, I know damn well that that spin is coming (even when in reality the news couldn't be better) and I know when, and I short. I know roughly when the positive spin begins and I make money on the way up also. Infact I make more riding the spin waves than I do writing apps for IOS so I'm happy with the world the way it is.

Anyhow thats it till next quarter, see you in three months

I suppose by your reckoning if I held my hand up in the sky I could be accused of snuffing out the sun. It's a fine line, after all. The point, if it wasn't obvious, is that you have to have the actual power to commit the act. Delusions of grandeur don't count in anybody's book. Okay, maybe in yours they do.

A "squeaky clean world?" Talk about a pure straw-man argument. That one takes the cake.