or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPad › iSuppli bucks trend, increases 2011 Apple iPad sales forecast to 43.7M
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

iSuppli bucks trend, increases 2011 Apple iPad sales forecast to 43.7M

post #1 of 28
Thread Starter 
As many prognosticators rethink their iPad sales predictions after Apple's quarterly earnings report, iSuppli has gone against the grain and increased its 2011 shipment forecast to 43.7 million units.

Beyond 2011, iSuppli upped its forecasts across the board this week. The market research firm sees Apple selling 13.8 million total units in 2010, and 63.3 million in 2012.

The forecast calls for iPad sales to accelerate as 2010 draws to a close, reaching a pace greater than 2.5 million per month. In July, iSuppli declared the iPad would be the "Tickle Me Elmo" hot toy of holiday 2010, and predicted sales this year of 12.9 million, and 2011 sales of 36.5 million.

The increased forecast came after Apple on Monday announced sales of 4.19 million iPads for its September quarter. While a larger number than the product's launch quarter, it was also less than Wall Street analysts had expected, prompting some to rethink their sales projections going forward.

But iSuppli believes that improved component availability will lead to even stronger sales in the coming months, and extending through 2012.

"In its previous iPad forecasts, iSuppli noted that the only constraint on shipment growth now is productionand not demand," said Rhoda Alexander, director of monitor research for iSuppli. "The only factor limiting production is the availability of key iPad components, such as the Field Fringe Switching (FFS) LCD panels, projected capacitive touch screens and NAND flash."

"Despite ongoing yield issues, Apple's suppliers have steadily increased monthly production to meet Apple's demand. Production rates are now on target to meet the expected strong fourth-quarter sales."



The iPad will also be helped this season by expanded retail availability, including sales at AT&T and Verizon stores, Target, all U.S. Best Buy locations, and Walmart.

iSuppli also noted that interest from the education market in the iPad is increasing. The report indicated that Apple is expected to offer education discounts and packages starting in 2011, and that those offers will be similar to those currently offered on notebooks to students and teachers.
post #2 of 28
Are you kidding me? They are estimating that and average 11million iPads will be sold each quarter next year....

They are saying that the $625 average selling price iPad will sell as well as the $165 asp iPod on a unit basis.

If the iPad cost $99 this estimate wouldnt be so outlandish, but I think they are near the limit of what they can do on pricing. Their margins for the past quarter were already weak by Apple standards, I dont see them dropping price by an amount sufficient to generate these astronomical sales levels. Vanishing margins is a slippery slope that Apple has been very careful to avoid thus far.
post #3 of 28
The biggest thing I feel most of the analysts are missing is next year's iPad. They are basing most of their predictions on past orders and the current iPad. As anyone who knows Apple can predict, the next iPad will improve immensely.
GIGO. The truth in all of life.
Reply
GIGO. The truth in all of life.
Reply
post #4 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smiles77 View Post

The biggest thing I feel most of the analysts are missing is next year's iPad. They are basing most of their predictions on past orders and the current iPad. As anyone who knows Apple can predict, the next iPad will improve immensely.

The next iPad will tell the tale of future sales predictions. I would love an iPad for a number of reasons, none of which are really addressed by the current model. I know many people who have held off waiting for a second evolution.

That being said that number might be way too bullish all things considered.
post #5 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by markb View Post

They are saying that the $625 average selling price iPad will sell as well as the $165 asp iPod on a unit basis.

iPad and iPod are in two very different markets.
iPad is more of an entry level laptop while not being a laptop.
While the iPod's market is well developed, almost saturated, iPad's market is just beginning. LOTS of room for growth there.
post #6 of 28
I'm curious to see how Apple will handle iOS 4.2 for the iPad. Multitasking really changes the experience of using an iOS device. It doesn't look like Apple is going to roll out new hardware in November so will they have an advertising campaign for the update? Every major release of iOS for the iPhone has coincided with a hardware update so Apple haven't been in this situation before. I expect a major advertising campaign at least. That could contribute to a much bigger holiday quarter. iOS 4 on iPad could drive growth.
post #7 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by markb View Post

Are you kidding me? They are estimating that and average 11million iPads will be sold each quarter next year....

They are saying that the $625 average selling price iPad will sell as well as the $165 asp iPod on a unit basis.

If the iPad cost $99 this estimate wouldnt be so outlandish, but I think they are near the limit of what they can do on pricing. Their margins for the past quarter were already weak by Apple standards, I dont see them dropping price by an amount sufficient to generate these astronomical sales levels. Vanishing margins is a slippery slope that Apple has been very careful to avoid thus far.

They sold 14 million iPhones in 3 months with an average selling price of $600, so what is the issue?
post #8 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wonder View Post

They sold 14 million iPhones in 3 months with an average selling price of $600, so what is the issue?

Yeah, I wasnt sure if I was reading his post correctly or not. It does sound like hes saying its impossible to sell that much volume at that price point, yet only compared it to the iPod and ignored the iPhone.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #9 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wonder View Post

They sold 14 million iPhones in 3 months with an average selling price of $600, so what is the issue?

But that ASP was to the carriers not to end users (at least in the USA). The ASP to consumers was more in the $225 range due to subsidization.
post #10 of 28
Quote:
They sold 14 million iPhones in 3 months with an average selling price of $600, so what is the issue?

Much of the $600 on the iPhone is hidden by the carrier subsidies. Most people see an iPhone purchase as a $200-300 "upgrade" for something they already pay for. Many people see a phone as a need and a iPad/iPhone as a want. I think comparing iPads to iPods is more reasonable when trying to guesstimate the number to be sold.

I would feel pretty comfortable betting that their 40M is off by a factor of 2x.
post #11 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wonder View Post

They sold 14 million iPhones in 3 months with an average selling price of $600, so what is the issue?

Yes, but most people don't shell out $600.- for an iPhone. At least not as a single payment, and that's what counts, apparently. Would Apple have sold 14 million iPhones if the customer had to hand over $600.- cash?
post #12 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by justfine View Post

But that ASP was to the carriers not to end users (at least in the USA). The ASP to consumers was more in the $225 range due to subsidization.

Quote:
Originally Posted by markb View Post

Much of the $600 on the iPhone is hidden by the carrier subsidies. Most people see an iPhone purchase as a $200-300 "upgrade" for something they already pay for. Many people see a phone as a need and a iPad/iPhone as a want. I think comparing iPads to iPods is more reasonable when trying to guesstimate the number to be sold.

I would feel pretty comfortable betting that their 40M is off by a factor of 2x.

Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post

Yes, but most people don't shell out $600.- for an iPhone. At least not as a single payment, and that's what counts, apparently. Would Apple have sold 14 million iPhones if the customer had to hand over $600.- cash?

You guys are making it sound like the carriers pay the difference and dont expect (say) a long binding contract with hefty payment each month thereafter.

If you really think that iPod sales should mirror iPad sales by taking the iPads ASP, multiplying by the number of iPods sold, then dividing by the number of iPads sold youll have to explain that rationale in more detail because I dont see how the iPod sales are the upper limit of all of Apples sales outside the iPhone.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #13 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post

iPad and iPod are in two very different markets.

And yet there's very little difference between the devices (iPod touch anyway) besides screen size.
post #14 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by markb View Post

Are you kidding me? They are estimating that and average 11million iPads will be sold each quarter next year....

They are saying that the $625 average selling price iPad will sell as well as the $165 asp iPod on a unit basis.

If the iPad cost $99 this estimate wouldnt be so outlandish, but I think they are near the limit of what they can do on pricing. Their margins for the past quarter were already weak by Apple standards, I dont see them dropping price by an amount sufficient to generate these astronomical sales levels. Vanishing margins is a slippery slope that Apple has been very careful to avoid thus far.

If the economy picks up next year I can see 12-14 million iPad 2's being sold during the October - December 2011 quarter... but 43.7 million for the year... hmmmmm... maybe if iPad 2 goes on sale at current prices and iPad 1 is dropped by 20%... naw... maybe 30 million tops.
na na na na na...
Reply
na na na na na...
Reply
post #15 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curmudgeon View Post

And yet there's very little difference between the devices (iPod touch anyway) besides screen size.

Except the massive UI redesign to take advantage of the new I/O. Thats not an easy task. Even Google says Android isnt ready for tablets.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #16 of 28
Quote:
I dont see how the iPod sales are the upper limit of all of Apples sales outside the iPhone.

You dont see that the iPad and iPod lines are primarily content consumption devices? I dont see the iPad radically expanding the addressable market for media consumption, I think for the above statement to stand you need to state why you think this isnt so. Do you think Apple didnt maximize market penetration of the iPod and there is a ton more to be realized? Is this why iPod sales are on the decline?

Perhaps some people would buy an iPad because of the larger screen size that wouldnt have purchased an iPod (I did, cant really read books on a iPod), but the doubling or tripling of price should shrink that addressable market by at least an equal amount.
post #17 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by poke View Post

I'm curious to see how Apple will handle iOS 4.2 for the iPad. Multitasking really changes the experience of using an iOS device. It doesn't look like Apple is going to roll out new hardware in November so will they have an advertising campaign for the update? Every major release of iOS for the iPhone has coincided with a hardware update so Apple haven't been in this situation before. I expect a major advertising campaign at least. That could contribute to a much bigger holiday quarter. iOS 4 on iPad could drive growth.

I doubt they will spend much, if at all, on an ad campaign for new iOS 4 on iPad. They will likely make some mention of it on iTunes and on the corporate site.

Existing users would get notified anyhow when they sync their iPads to their computers that new software is available.
post #18 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curmudgeon View Post

And yet there's very little difference between the devices (iPod touch anyway) besides screen size.

However, that screen size difference is crucial in the way one interacts with the device.

It's like the difference between the bathroom sink and the bathtub.
post #19 of 28
If Apple can sell 14m iPhones per quarter and close to 4m Macs per quarter, can't one come to the conclusion of 8-10m iPads per quarter. After subsidies, yes the iPhone is cheaper upfront which is all the user sees. Macs cost twice as much as iPads roughly so Apple should be able to sell twice as many of them per quarter as Macs, but not as many as iPhones. Just don't forget that Mac and iPhone sales have always climbed YOY so you have to figure that in as well. And new improved hardware and software are around the corner, sales catalysts. iSuppli might be on to something here.
When a company stops chasing profit and start chasing the betterment of their products, services, workforce, and customers, that will be the most valuable company in the world.
Reply
When a company stops chasing profit and start chasing the betterment of their products, services, workforce, and customers, that will be the most valuable company in the world.
Reply
post #20 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post

Yes, but most people don't shell out $600.- for an iPhone. At least not as a single payment, and that's what counts, apparently. Would Apple have sold 14 million iPhones if the customer had to hand over $600.- cash?

In America, no, because consumers are used to subsidized handsets with the 2-year handcuffs, er, I mean contract.

Note that unsubsidized handsets are quite commonplace in other parts of the world and that half of Apple's revenue is international. The reluctance to pay full retail for a handset is largely an idiosyncrasy of the American cellular customer. Credit-loving Americans like to defer payment and think of it as "getting it cheap."

There are plenty of imbeciles who will say that the iPhone is cheaper than the iPod touch when the Total Cost of Ownership of the former hovers around $2000, whereas the latter has a one-time cost of $230-400.
post #21 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by poke View Post

I'm curious to see how Apple will handle iOS 4.2 for the iPad. Multitasking really changes the experience of using an iOS device. It doesn't look like Apple is going to roll out new hardware in November so will they have an advertising campaign for the update? Every major release of iOS for the iPhone has coincided with a hardware update so Apple haven't been in this situation before. I expect a major advertising campaign at least. That could contribute to a much bigger holiday quarter. iOS 4 on iPad could drive growth.

iOS 4.2 isn't a major release as most of the capabilities are already out there for the iPhone with iOS 4.

However it is new to the iPad, which, up to now, has used a special forked release of iOS 3.2.

iOS 4.2 unites all current iDevices under a single version of iOS,

As an iOS Developer, I have the 4.2 beta installed on our 2 iPads. It is solid. Multitasking and Folders really improve the usability of the device. Printing is great, as is AirPlay (audio only in this beta).

I am really looking forward to AirPlay with full video streaming among iDevices.


At tomorrow's event (or, likely, later this year), I am hoping for some announcements of additional support for iDevices -- in particular the iPad:
-- iLife
-- enhanced MobileMe support (included with each iPad)
-- options to initially startup and software update an iPad
----- direct connection to local computer running iTunes (fastest)
----- WiFi connection to local computer running iTunes (2nd fastest)
----- WiFi connection to remote server running MobileMe
-- enhanced streaming of Audio and Video from local iTunes
----- WiFi and cell (there are 3rd -party apps for that)
-- enhanced MobileMe / iDisk support for Backup and file exchange
-- shared files capability within the iPad
-- WiFi file exchange with local computer and other iDevices
----- there are 3rd party apps for that
-- BackToMyMac from iPad
----- Where Mac OS X alters display and behavior when controlled by a remote touch device
-- Enhanced BlueTooth connection to other iDevices and accessories
----- override default that inactivates virtual kb (assumes real kb is connected)
-- Enhanced accessory support through iPad connector/USB/SD card adapter
----- External [thumb] drive file transfer
----- Enhanced SD Card file transfer
-- Enhanced virtual kb support
----- split kb options for thumb typing

The above improvements would make the iPad more flexible and remove most (if not all) of the criticisms that the iPad is not really a computer.

.
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
Reply
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
Reply
post #22 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

iOS 4.2 isn't a major release as most of the capabilities are already out there for the iPhone with iOS 4.

However it is new to the iPad, which, up to now, has used a special forked release of iOS 3.2.

iOS 4.2 unites all current iDevices under a single version of iOS,

As an iOS Developer, I have the 4.2 beta installed on our 2 iPads. It is solid. Multitasking and Folders really improve the usability of the device. Printing is great, as is AirPlay (audio only in this beta).

I am really looking forward to AirPlay with full video streaming among iDevices.


At tomorrow's event (or, likely, later this year), I am hoping for some announcements of additional support for iDevices -- in particular the iPad:
-- iLife
-- enhanced MobileMe support (included with each iPad)
-- options to initially startup and software update an iPad
----- direct connection to local computer running iTunes (fastest)
----- WiFi connection to local computer running iTunes (2nd fastest)
----- WiFi connection to remote server running MobileMe
-- enhanced streaming of Audio and Video from local iTunes
----- WiFi and cell (there are 3rd -party apps for that)
-- enhanced MobileMe / iDisk support for Backup and file exchange
-- shared files capability within the iPad
-- WiFi file exchange with local computer and other iDevices
----- there are 3rd party apps for that
-- BackToMyMac from iPad
----- Where Mac OS X alters display and behavior when controlled by a remote touch device
-- Enhanced BlueTooth connection to other iDevices and accessories
----- override default that inactivates virtual kb (assumes real kb is connected)
-- Enhanced accessory support through iPad connector/USB/SD card adapter
----- External [thumb] drive file transfer
----- Enhanced SD Card file transfer
-- Enhanced virtual kb support
----- split kb options for thumb typing

The above improvements would make the iPad more flexible and remove most (if not all) of the criticisms that the iPad is not really a computer.

.

Great post, I am very excited about the iPad's future . Thanks. What are your thoughts on iPad being able to become independent of a mother computer by use of a cloud based iTunes for day to day use and activation of a Mobileme account for new users (purchasing an iPad at an airport for example)?
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
Reply
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
Reply
post #23 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

and remove most (if not all) of the criticisms that the iPad is not really a computer.

It's certainly a computer; it's just a consumption-driven computer.

What do people mostly use the iPad for?

1. Watching videos (Netflix is outstanding)

2. Playing games

3. Reading books, newspapers, magazines

The professional and creative apps are certainly there, but this experience needs to be improved to push the iPad forward. The onscreen keyboard needs to be improved, the ability to get files on and off the device needs to be improved (needing to sync to get documents back and forth is clunky at best). If you're an artist, pressure sensitivity needs to be incorporated somehow.

IMHO.
post #24 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goldenclaw View Post

It's certainly a computer; it's just a consumption-driven computer.

.

No, its simply not capable of particular types or volumes of 'production'. Just like a car can carry things, just not the same amount as a truck.

Artists, musicians and writers can in many cases do far more on an iPad than they could on a 'computer' of just 10 years ago.
Does that mean the definition of 'computer' constantly changes?
I don't buy that. The iPad is a computer. I've yet to have anyone make a rational case to me otherwise.
post #25 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by GQB View Post

Does that mean the definition of 'computer' constantly changes?.

Yes, yes it does. Just yesterday someone on this board said it had to burn DVDs and another said it had to have a standard USB port. Of course, that eliminates the original IBM PC and at least 15 years of PCs that came after it.

Quote:
The iPad is a computer. I've yet to have anyone make a rational case to me otherwise.

Ive yet to hear a rational case for it being/not being a computer, or why the personal keeps getting dropped from the term.

I will let Stephen Fry convey why this whole topic is sllly to all that say it is or isnt a computer based on a comparison to past HW or past definitions.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7E-aoXLZGY
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #26 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by markb View Post

Much of the $600 on the iPhone is hidden by the carrier subsidies. Most people see an iPhone purchase as a $200-300 "upgrade" for something they already pay for. Many people see a phone as a need and a iPad/iPhone as a want. I think comparing iPads to iPods is more reasonable when trying to guesstimate the number to be sold.

I would feel pretty comfortable betting that their 40M is off by a factor of 2x.

Sorry, but the WiFi iPad is coming out of my pocket and the 3G is coming out of my pocket and then some. The cost of leasing access to a carrier is akin to leasing a car where one is always better off just buying the damn car.
post #27 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by silverpraxis View Post

If Apple can sell 14m iPhones per quarter and close to 4m Macs per quarter, can't one come to the conclusion of 8-10m iPads per quarter. After subsidies, yes the iPhone is cheaper upfront which is all the user sees. Macs cost twice as much as iPads roughly so Apple should be able to sell twice as many of them per quarter as Macs, but not as many as iPhones. Just don't forget that Mac and iPhone sales have always climbed YOY so you have to figure that in as well. And new improved hardware and software are around the corner, sales catalysts. iSuppli might be on to something here.

Apple sold 14 million iphones in a full iphone launch quarter --- which only happens once a year.
post #28 of 28
One thing most people ignore: the ipad is steadily getting better and more useful without changing hardware. I've had mine since March. Through new software I can now:

1. annotate pdfs.
2. comfortably exchange files 2 ways with dropbox
3. take notes in freehand.
4. take notes in freehand and, through handwriting recognition, transfer them to text.
5. almost use Keynote (but not quite)
6. use Pages.

and considerably more. The apps are evolving in very useful and clever ways. Next month we'll have the update to iOS 4.2, which will make the iPad more useful, including important improvements to Mail and Safari. So, buying an iPad now will give you more productivity than last March, and next year even more. Clearly, the next generation of iPad will be better (lighter? higher resolution? More ports?). But iPad 1.0 is transforming on its own.

The point is that as the utility of the iPad improves the rate of purchase will increase.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: iPad
  • iSuppli bucks trend, increases 2011 Apple iPad sales forecast to 43.7M
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPad › iSuppli bucks trend, increases 2011 Apple iPad sales forecast to 43.7M