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Originally Posted by
2 cents 
alexkhan2000, I never said or assumed you were denigrating asians or that you are an ugly american. What I said is that you are making a mistake in thinking that innovation is some American birthright.
As for Japan, they are a tiny country compared to china and the US. Their economy can only climb so high. Yes, they have hit a very rough deflationary period but I think they will sort everything out and find their proper place in the global economy in due time.
As for authoritarian governments, china is proving that capitalism and democracy have nothing whatsoever to do with each other. In fact, democracy is a nuisance to capitalism. Capitalists like fixed costs and they'd much rather pay bribes and know the results of their purchase than lobby a candidate without knowing the direct outcome. China's success says to me, prepare for a new model of state capitalism.
As for the west in general, I am Greek, and I have heard the "Aristotle" arguments all my life. Take a lesson from the Greeks. If you think your history destines you for repeated success, think again. Other countries and cultures are not standing still.
And that's my real point. There is nothing genetic about American innovation. We could very well see some other county or region take the lead in short order. Since that's all we have left to crow about here in the US, where does that leave us? If we had at least retained some well-paying jobs, we could keep the population productive, fed, and housed. Instead, we bought into the idea that we could all get rich doing each others' laundry. The way it looks to me, this society is getting ready to come apart at the seams. And Americans own lots of guns. I don't need to paint you a picture.
2 cents, I don't think I ever said that innovation is an American "birthright," just that it is a competitive advantage. Let's look at the global Fortune 500 companies. Look at the most valuable brands in the world. Whether it's product development or innovative marketing and branding ideas, American companies still dominate. Compare these American companies with the most powerful conglomerates in the Far East. You quickly see a pattern: American companies are more about design, the brand, engineering, and branding than brute manufacturing prowess that characterizes the largest and most successful companies of the Far East.
Sure, one needs innovation and creativity in manufacturing as well. Companies such as Toyota, Samsung, Hitachi, Sony, LG, Nissan, Toshiba and many others are very innovative companies as well. But, generally speaking in the big macro picture, they are still known for manufacturing. The biggest Asian companies are banks, telecoms, conglomerates that dabble in everything from insurance to shipbuilding as well as consumer electronics and automobiles. Manufacturing is what east Asians excel at. It's not just the low wages. If it's all about cheap labor, why didn't big-scale mass manufacturing flow to South America or Africa or even south Asia or eastern Europe?
I totally agree that things could change, but the inertia of several thousand years doesn't change overnight or even over a few centuries. Having spent much time in Korea, China, and Japan (with many friends and associates in these countries), I can say that their problems are at least as serious and colossal as the problems we face in the West and America, in particular. But a lot of these problems are unique to their own regions and are based in cultural mores of their societies as well as their geopolitical and demographic realities.
I could easily emigrate to South Korea if I want. I really don't see things any better off anywhere else than here. Every country and society has its own problems. I've been all over Europe as well and I always absorb what each country has to offer and assess their strengths and weaknesses. As for China, their problems are colossal. It's difficult to comprehend a country that has a population size of two United States and all of Europe combined. I'm often quite impressed by the Chinese government that governs and manages a nation of such enormous size. Democracy in a country such as China just wouldn't work.
You're right: democracy and capitalism do not have to go in hand-in-hand. If anything, China is a more of a free-wheeling capitalist nation than the US. That's the impression I've been getting for 17 years. But, in the big picture of things, you have to remember that the Chinese government has big stakes and control over key industry sectors such as energy, banking, and technology. The government leaves it up to professional managers to run these huge companies, but make no mistake, the government is often the major shareholder.
Corruption remains a major problem in China - especially at the lower state and local levels. There is deep pent-up anger amongst the common citizens over the rampant corruption that is virtually institutionalized in the government of China. There is no real check-and-balances there. If the government screws up, things get covered up and the citizens won't so much get an apology. And the gap between the haves and have-nots in China is probably the biggest internal problem and threat to the social stability of the entire nation. 60% of China's huge population live in abject poverty. Yes, China is producing millionaires and billionaires faster than any other nation in the world, but that only compounds the problem.
China's size and bloat is also a major burden as well as an asset. Nearly a billion people in China live in conditions and environments that we would consider the slums. Going inland in China felt like I was traveling in a time machine to 70~80 years in the past. Hundreds of millions of people are impoverished to a level that's hard to imagine in the States and the West in general. How will the Chinese government bring these people out of poverty and give them hope while a very small percentage of the population continues to get filthy rich?
Yes, parts of Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities in China are as glitzy and modern as any other major cities around the world. But, overall, it's just a facade - an expensive lip stick on a big fat pig. By its sheer size, China will become the largest economy in the world, but the great majority of its population won't benefit from it and continue living in poverty and state of despair. And, yes, we've got that in the States as well. I just don't see things becoming any better in China than here or anywhere else. The way I see it, things are much more fragile in China than it is here.
There's a good reason the Chinese government is so paranoid and continues to spend billions and billions to filter out the Internet and repress dissent. You can be assured that the Chinese government continues to execute thousands and thousands of people for such "minor" crimes as fraud and open dissent against the government and that won't change. Yeah, democratic politics sucks and I hear that from people in Korea, Japan and Taiwan all the time. Some in Korea even yearn for the authoritarian days of President Park Jeong-Hee of the 60's and 70's. Such is the mess of multiple political parties constantly engaged in squabble and getting nothing done. Also, how many prime ministers has Japan had over the last 5 years? Can anyone here name even two of them? Japan has become a political joke.
Yeah, I agree that things are pretty messed up in America right now, but I just don't think it's really any worse than elsewhere (save for the small Scandinavian countries whose citizens are happy to pay taxes in the 50~60% range). I really don't share your doomsday scenario. Things have been much worse before and these aren't insurmountable problems. I'm sorry that you have such a negative view of what's going on here but I think we'll dig out of this hole. Hey, let's remember where Apple was in the mid-90's...
Peace.