Apple's iPhone tops US smartphone shipments, but Android devices take 44% - Page 6

True, but you can't say that Android is generating zero revenue at all for Google.


If you took out every single other smartphone device Google's on besides Android, Google would still be making money off of it.

Well I prefer to plug my iPhone in while tethering so I use the MacBooks much larger battery as a power source.

I also like not having my Internet connection drop when a call comes in and the fact that the average download speed on my HSDPA based network is higher than the Droids peak CDMA speed.

Different strokes for different folks, the grass isn't always greener etc.

True, they do license apps for Android that the vendor (or vendor affiliate) can choose not to include. They surely make money on them, the question is, how much?

Exactly. I also plug in my Incredible because using it as a "wireless" hotspot for all my devices at the same time does drain the battery. After all, my normal wireless router is plugged in - why wouldn't I plug in my phone that's acting as a wireless hotspot as well?

I actually DO get it. Like you said, for better or for worse. It's all in perspective. Obviously, millions of people agree with you across the globe on that. However, there are now millions who no longer do agree (who've switched) or who never have.

Remember: my whole point here is not to bash but, rather, to highlight the differences. We all win from competition.

Does anyone really believe that iOS's version of multitasking (limited though it may be) would have been on iOS 4 if iPhone users hadn't complained about not having it? And...logic goes, people complained about not having it because they SAW it on other devices, like Crackberry and Android. If those platforms didn't have it, then most likely it wouldn't have been so highly desired by iPhone users. THAT'S the beauty of competition.

Actually, I don't think they conveniently overlook this. It's the converse: Apple conveniently puts out their numbers as a whole iOS, instead of breaking it down by iPhone, iPad, iTouch, etc. That would show that when comparing "phone to phone" the iPhone has been surpassed by Android phones.

Folks, this isn't a bad thing: this is normal. There's no way one device from one maker can sustain its trajectory against 20 Android devices (in the US) on multiple carriers. Some of these devices are entry-level, mid-range, and high-end.

And, more importantly, Apple SHOULDN'T try to beat those figures or it will begin to produce phones that are no longer of high quality (think: antennagate and proximity sensor times 10).

I'd like to see the assumptions behind the $4billion dollar figure.

Because I can't work out what they are.

Nokia makes just 8 Euro profit for every phone it sells. This is the profit for actually selling the device. And this is for the lifetime of the device.

If Android is to make $4B annually - It would need to make $8 per device, per year.
And it would need to have half-a-billion Android devices in active service. I don't think any of those figures are remotely achievable.

Where would that money come from? Paid search? Mobile advertising? An ad click brings pennies.

Has anyone ever clicked on a mobile ad ever?

My three Android predictions are:

1) Android will become by far the most popular Mobile OS by far.
2) The revenues for Google will remain poor. <10% of Apple's mobile profits.
3) The profit margins of Android handset manufacturers will tend towards the 0%-8% figure.


C.

You're trying to have it both ways.

You're arguing that market share is important because developers are concerned about how many devices are out there that will run their app. Then you want to ignore Apple's non-phone devices for some reason.

Rationally, as a developer, you're MOST concerned about how much money you can make - and iOS wins this one hands down.

Next concern is how many devices can run your app. For that, you have to consider ALL iOS devices and ALL Android devices.

The only way that the number of Android phones vs number of iOS phones matters to a developer is if you're making an app that only works on a cell phone.

And even then you have to consider the relative likelihood of the different audiences to actually PAY.
Android Market is engineered differently, and isn't available in some territories.

Which might have something to do with the fact that Android customers have not not shown themselves as willing to pay for apps as Apple users.

The base number of units sold is simply not a good proxy for the return of investment.

C.

I keep hearing the same thing about the updates not being forced.
I was never prompted to update my phone, It updates itseld over night. Same with my Wife's X.

These are great predictions. I think #1 will be most likely. #2 is wrong because "remain poor" infers that Google's revenue is already bad. Have you seen the latest financial report from Google where they stated that they've made over a billion already from Android? The only way they make money from Android is from ads--the OS is free (open source) and even their own apps are free (maps, sky map, navigation, etc.) They also stated that Android was their "best deal" on any acquisition to date. #3, also wrong. HTC has had tremendous record-breaking year over year profits due almost exclusively to Android. Motorola has also done quite well. Samsung? They're kicking butt with the worldwide launch of the Galaxy S phones.

I also use LauncherPro which makes my Incredible an entirely different phone. Again, that's the beauty of Android--I can tweak it till my heart's content. Something I don't like, I can change it. iPhone is locked in so all of them, quite ironically, look like Droids (and I don't mean Android Droids).

I predict this will change as Jobs feels the pressure to allow more customization to the platform.

I agree with the person you quoted. He's comparing Apples to Apples (pun intended). That's the only fair way to compare. He's comparing smartphone market penetration to smartphone market penetration. To include iTouch and iPad would be akin to one group comparing apples and other group comparing their apples, oranges, and apricots. You can't do that in true logic.

Android is less mature than iOS. Once the tablet market for Android takes hold, then it would be fair to compare there as well. But it's still, IMHO, best to compare simply apples to apples - only phones to phones.

I never said anything about claiming that marketshare is important to developers. Seems like you're putting words in my mouth just so you can have something to rant against. All I said is that at the current time, the majority of Android devices are smartphones. Which is why you can say "Android vs. iPhone" (to a point) for now if a company wants to compare smartphone devices.

As time moves on and more and more tablets and other devices running Android hit the market, that comparison will no longer hold and I whole-heartedly agree that we'll have to switch to "Android vs. iOS".

Based off of the image below, I'm guessing what happened is that somehow, the update was "pushed" to your devices and the timer showed up. You were both asleep, which caused you to miss the window popping up, and thus not be able to postpone the update. Unfortunate timing if anything...



Again, it seems odd because my roommate has went weeks after the 2.2 roll-out without being updated.

I'm curious to what you object to for the update. 2.2 has done nothing but better my DX.

Interesting comment from Michael Dell about what some of us have likely been talking about

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20101102/tc_nm/us_dell

Let's pull that apart.
Google "made a billion on Android"?
Can you cite where and how that figure was derived?
It was an extrapolated figure. Google gives no numbers for profitability. And no numbers for the cost of development. They cite revenues without costs.

The TOTAL number of Android devices in the world is what? <60M. To arrive at a billion dollars Google would have to be making $16 per device per year. That figure does not sound credible unless Google charged vendors.
And we should contrast that with the $300 or so Apple makes per device *before* it sells any services.

On the profitability of Android handset makers. It's obvious that Android is a leveller. There is no great opportunity to add value because the software platform is shared. So Android devices, like Windows clones, simply compete themselves into very low margins.

Let's look at them margins...



It's pretty clear that all the Android vendors are being drawn towards an average of 4% or so.

HTC's margin is FALLING.
Samsung running at 10%.
Motorola made roughly 1$ per device sold! Having risen to a few percent from a negative margin.


I am pretty happy to stand by all my predictions.

C.

Did you read that i said $99 isn't that much? That aside, do you honestly think that $99 isn't a lot to some folks (think outside USA)? Sure if you work for a company that develops app that fee is negligible.

Those things are what I AM looking at, as in things that matter to ME. Some things may not matter to you but I never intended to say that all those reasons are clear cut to everyone.

"which platform will allow me to make the most money?"
Why is the answer so overwhelmingly iOS? You are over simplifying a complicated question. Do you have statistics of how much money a developer gains for selling an app vs ad-supported?

If I can give away 100 apps with ads that give me money at a rate of $1.00 per day vs. selling 10 apps for $0.99, I'd take the ad route this way and earn more money overtime. You shouldn't underestimate the shear size of low-income customers

The story within the mobile development community is that iOS generates about 5-10 times more revenue than any other platform.

C.

For now. And that's the key word.

I have a number of theories about this. I would assert that the iPhone's higher tax bracket clientele is at least in part a function of the iPhone being the first to market. Early smartphone adopters are folks with money. That does not necessarily mean that over time, this same class of wealthy early adopters will stick to the iPhone. But I would assert that with this class of people, ease of use (time is money and none in this class would want to waste time customizing the phone) is probably a major driver keeping them tied to the iPhone. Conversely though, they are also the folks who have enough cash that switching over to another platform (whether BB, Android, WebOS or WP7) is not necessarily daunting.

There's also the age factor. I recently read that Android users tend to be significantly younger than iPhone users. If that's true, that can cut both ways for Apple. Obviously, older folk have more disposable income....more profit today. But today's younger folk become tomorrow's older folk. If those teens and twentysomethings rocking Android today get so used to the platform that they don't want to transition to iOS devices in the future, Apple could have a tough fight some years from now.

http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/...lphone-market/

Next, given that smartphone penetration is still low, I would suggest that it's still very early in the game. Too early to tell whether the Android model or the iOS app sales models are better. What I would suggest though, is that these market share numbers moving forward are very relevant...because it's all the dumbphone converts that are going to determine who wins the smartphone wars. If Android keeps outselling the iPhone over 1.5 to 1, the Android installed base will start to gain ground on iOS eventually....especially if the existing trajectory holds. There's a real possibility that Android phone sales alone could overtake all iOS device sales in a few years. It's a faint possibility. But I would not dismiss it as a totally implausible scenario. Don't forget that last quarter most people were suggesting that Android outselling the iPhone was a fluke and that the iPhone 4 would have Apple in the lead this quarter.

Also, you can't discount the halo effect. The iPad benefited from the iPhone's halo. Android tablets will certainly experience a similar effect from strong handset sales. So while the iPad's totally dominant today (and I don't see why anybody would buy any other tablet right now), it's a matter of time before Android OEMs catch up on the tablet front, just like their tech caught up on the phone front. And when they do, all those Android phone users will suddenly find themselves oddly familiar and comfortable with Android tablets, just like iPhone users find the learning curve relatively shallow on the iPad.

So this whole 5-10x more profitability argument, is very much a snapshot in time argument and I think most developers recognize that. Going forward, there's a lot of ways this could play out. And I don't think it'd be very wise for any developer to base his planning and resource allocation based on where the market is at today, if he's in it for the long haul. That's not to say, iOS is going to become unprofitable or something....merely that I don't think this 5-10x more profitable argument is going to hold in perpetuity.

...and from a personal perspective.....everybody should just use what's good for them. As much as I enjoy a good debate I would never try and convert someone. People who force their tech on others are as bad as Jehovah's Witness who disturb my weekend sleep!

All these arguments about what to count, phone, tablet, media player, etc. are ridiculous. What stats are relevant depend on what issue you want to look at. So can we please stop with the back and forth?

If for example, you're the CEO of a company that sold 3G baseband chipsets to Apple and Android OEMs, would you care about Apple's iPod Touch sales? OTOH if you are a developer, why would you not take into account iPod Touch and iPad sales?



For me, as a user, I really only care about the installed base up to a point....that point being the tipping point at which the platform I am on is big enough to attract all the apps I want. This is why I really would not consider WP7 or Blackberry right now. Beyond that, I really don't give a damn. 100 000 vs 300 000. I really don't care. And for the most part, I really don't care if iOS or Android or WP7 gets the app first. As long as I get the app I want eventually. I suspect that my views aren't all that uncommon among non-techies.

If course it matters to normal casual users of an OS - like a casual gamer - that games are released first, or at all. So gamers do not buy Macs.

Marketshare is just a base metric. Your product's success depends on access to that marketshare. You cannot assume that Apple's App Store, Android Market or even free-range web downloads provide the same market access - they almost certainly will not. By product selection Apple's customers prove they're prepared to spend money, Android/Windows followers prove they do not. Android's "openness" allows circumvention & theft of Market, Apps Store does not & no, most people don't jailbreak their iPhones.

The big question is will an OSX developer make more money through the Mac App store than yet another Windows developer with more random access and dozens of incumbent competitors?

McD

It's true that the openness of Android allows for the possibility of circumventing the Market. But how many "typical"(read: non-techie) users would know exactly where to go and what to do to steal the apps? Even the easiest ways to attempt to steal an app wouldn't appear straight-forward to the normal user.

Easiest path, if I had to pick, would be to go for a torrent site. But again, how many "typical" users know what torrents are and how to use a torrent client?

Another path I've found is to search up the .apk file using Google (ironic, no?) then use another third-party app to install the .apk file. Again, how many general users know that apps are .apk files? Or where to find this installer app?

It's my opinion that no more people go through the trouble to steal Android apps than iDevice users jailbreak their devices.

Someone noted above that the Android demographic is younger. Gee, I wonder which age demographic is most familiar with torrents? Certainly not the one that grew up with LimeWire.

None of my younger nieces and nephews are what you would call "techies"...you do not need to be one to torrent or load a .apk. How hard is it to stick the apk on a SD card and use Astro? Not very. Hell, you can get a torrent app and torrent apks from TPB and skip the SD card step.

Me, I can't be bothered to mess with that anymore despite having cruised on the old crack bbses to get warez 20 fricking years ago. Not for a $1.99 app. So I'm guessing that the iPhone crowd, even those with the skillz to jailbreak and torrent apps, is less inclined in general than the younger droid crowd.

Not to mention that some of the hardcore droid crowd are "free software enthusiasts" with little respect for proprietary software or their devs.

Apple was first to market two handset lifetimes ago. The early adopters like myself have had two opportunities to shift handset. I don't think a shift away from iPhone is that likely for a few reasons.

iTunes, infrastructure, investment. Existing owners are invested in the platform, with their music, apps and so on.

And device satisfaction ratings for iPhone owners is still higher than other platforms.


And the iPod Touch is given as a games machine to 10 year olds.


I am skeptical about the Android tablets selling well.


I agree it is temporary. Everything is temporary. But it is the current situation.

Anyone who sets out to be mobile developer today, should be aware of the situation and base their development decisions on the current state of play.

If the market changes in future then they should adapt.

C.

Younger still does not necessarily mean that they know what torrents are or how to use them. Just because the younger generation grew up using Limewire, doesn't mean that every single one of them used it or knew how to use it. Have you considered that there might be young people that decided to focus on things other than torrent sites?

Yes, I agree that once you do do it, it's not at all hard to find an .apk. This requires the person to want to make that step in the first place. Going back to your statement about being not inclined to go through the trouble for a $1.99 app. What makes you believe that the Android crowd is any more inclined to steal them if you claim the iPhone jailbreakers aren't?

Another question to ask is: If it's really as easy as you make it out to steal .apks, then why aren't we hearing more of it from the tech websites or Google? Essentially, why aren't more and more people doing it?

To your "hardcore droid (sic)" comment, I have to completely disagree with you. A lot of us know that developers are struggling a bit to make a comfortable amount on the Market and we support them in any way we can. If the app is a well-made app that delivers, there are no problems handing over a few dollars to have them continue to provide and improve the app.

But the real "hardcore" crowd are the ones that use all the custom ROMs developers create. Many of whom are just college students working in-between stressful classes. And we have no issues donating money to them in support of their hard work to get us the latest OS updates when carriers like Verizon or the OEMs lag.

One of the biggest forums for hardcore Android users is www.alldroid.org. I challenge you to sign up there and make the same comment you made about the "hardcore droid (sic)" crowd in any of the developer threads.

Do you actually know any young people? Or ever torrented? Because this isn't some arcane unix thing that only geeks do.


Younger with less income than old farts like me. $1.99 is nothing to me even if I bought a hundred of the things. When I was in college $1.99 is one (or two) less pitcher(s) of beer on Friday.

Now I can afford beer and apps without thinking about it.


http://lmgtfy.com/?q=android+piracy

Gee that was hard. iOS piracy is simply considered far less of an issue for devs than on android. Thank god I'm not a android market dev but an enterprise android dev and can avoid all that market idiocy even if I make no revenue. All of my market apps would likely be free anyway and open sourced unless I wrote a game or something.


I'm talking about folks with a religious view on software. Disagree all you want but there are a lot of linux folks using Android because it is "free" and a deep seated bias against proprietary software which 90% of app are. Some of these folks have a pirated copy of Windows to dual boot into for games or whatever. Loading a few proprietary .apks is just shafting those evil closed source people out to sabotage their precious freedoms.

Okay, mostly these types of FSF zealots are kids but that also ties into that "lack-o-money" aspect. This provides them some ethical top cover for piracy.

If you must know, I'm 25. And I have indeed used torrents before. I understand it's not something only geeks do.


And what makes you think that us younger folk are scraping the bottom of the barrel? I graduated college a few years ago and there are plenty of opportunities to earn money, especially while working for the college itself. Believe it or not, not all of us look at the $1.99 as beer money. Besides, the Market's 24 hour refund period ensures that if it ends up not meeting your needs, then you can get your money back.

Also, consider purchasing a smartphone on Verizon, for example. You would have to put down $299.99 + tax up front. And foot an $80 bill month to month. If you can foot this expense, then apps that cost a few dollars will be nothing. Otherwise, you have more important things that money should be going towards than a smartphone.


I have done this and the few sites that show up with stories are based off of measurements of individual apps. What I would personally like to see is an overall view of piracy.

And from reading those sites, the main idea I got was that it Android isn't fostering a "culture of piracy", if you will (the original point of my posts). But rather, most of it is because users prefer to use methods of payment that aren't currently available on the Market (PayPal, carrier billing, etc).

Another thought is that in most countries where the Market is not open yet, people are resorting to piracy in order to get the apps they want.

Both of these can be resolved by Google opening up the Market to more and more countries and adding in more forms of payment. Both of which it is actively doing. I believe that having these in place will determine whether or not Android's openness is actually fostering a "culture of piracy".


Then yeah, we're talking about two different groups here. As you put it, I would consider those more "religious". Compared to the general user, one who tinkers with custom ROMs would be considered "hardcore".

Then why are you claiming this is somehow hard or uncommon? It isn't.


Right, the same folks that happily will torrent a song or DVD is going to not torrent an app that they might like but probably not enough to actually want to pay for it.


Translation: I have no data but I completely reject yours and claim no evidence exists while I attempt to move goal posts. I also ignore the opinions of actual android devs that think piracy is more of a problem on Android than on iOS.


People pirate android apps because they cant buy them via carrier billing? Really?


This statement totally ignores the data available from the apps that are tracking android piracy by region.

There has been so much hype about a Jan 2011 release of a Verizon Iphone, I predict that it it doesn't happen, you will see a huge move to the droids for the folks who have been waiting patiently and don't want to wait until June 2011

good possibility, however if another carrier like Sprint gets the IPHONE4 you might see a big move there instead. On the other hand, if Verizon does not get the Iphone in January which is 50/50 people might be inclined to wait for the IPHONE5 which will only be another few months away. One thing is certain, if we don't see Verizon with the IPHONE in January we will see many more rumors and stories thats its coming soon.

Round and round the rumor mill goes...