Originally Posted by grking
Hi Dick. I like you and respect your opinions, and I hate to be a curmudgeon.
But, when this was first announced, your predictions were that the Playbook would not be ready for almost a year because they had no OS, no SDK, no working unit etc.
So, a month later, they release the SDK, show a working demo, and stick with their early 2011 release date.
We shall see what happens, but . . . . .
Rim announced the PlayBook on 9/27 -- showing videos and mockups only, lots of missing specs (price, Battery, etc). No demos -- a brand new (to them) OS (QNX) and brand new (to them) UI (Flash, AIR, whatever). No SDK, no release date. RIM and Adobe, both have poor track records with touch, and multitouch interface.
Based on that, and extrapolating from Apple's intro / release of the iPhone, (AIR) I predicted a June 2011 release (at best) of the PlayBook. I wondered why they held the announcement at all.
Apple demoed working iPhones in Jan 2007. Announced specs, Battery, Price and release month. R Apple had to transfer expert Mac OS X people to the iPhone team (Delaying the new release of Mac OS X) to make their June deadline. An SDK was not part of the original package.
I just watched the 2007 iPhone announcement keynote. Very long, complete, detailed demo of apps and the UI. I would call this a very advanced beta, Reporters had hands-on within weeks.http://www.macrumors.com/2007/01/18/...n-with-iphone.
Apple met their 6 month release deadline -- 6-month concentrated effort from a late beta at announce.
Rim and Adobe, 1 month after announce, release preliminary SDKs -- fragmented, download bits from several places -- early alpha feel.
Rim, 1 month after their sept 27 announcement, live demos PlayBook at Adobe event. Very limited and controlled demo of OS and apps. UI is not done. Has late Alpha look and feel. AFAICT, no one outside Rim and Adobe has hands-on experience. Still no published battery life? No published release month?
Based on where we are today, I revised my estimate to, a very generous, March 2011 release -- that means significant product, say 100,000 in the channel by March 31, 2011. Sales would need to be over 100,000 for the 9 months of availability in 2011.
I don't see this competing with the iPad, HP Slate, or Galaxy Tab. Supposedly it is targeted at enterprise.
There better be a lot of enterprise apps already written in AIR!
I did not factor in competition for parts and production facilities.
I believe that most enterprises are in, or have recently completed, their budget/planning cycle for 2011. I doubt many PlayBooks are in these budgets. I suspect there are many iPads in enterprise budgets and app development projects are already underway.
I just don't see the PlayBook being a success -- it's the wrong company(s), introducing the wrong product at the wrong time.
But, as you say: we'll see.