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Looking to purchase a macbook pro this winter... should I?

post #1 of 20
Thread Starter 
dear all, i have been a mac fanboy for a while now, but recently im facing some purchasing issues. can anyone give me some advice/recommendations? instead of just yes or no answers, please provide why... ill be extremely grateful.
heres my situation:
currently I have a 2007 2.4Ghz core 2 duo 4gb ram macbook pro. condition is decent, other than a chip on the top left corner, everything else looks like new. but because i'm an extreme perfectionist, the chip on the top left is annoying me. after having this mac for almost 3-4 years, i have constantly been fixing it and upgraded the interior hd from 320gb to 500gb. but now, the computer is starting to get real slow, vlc player lags (video quality gets pixelated, not because of the movie file), youtube lags, problems occur here and there. the cd drive occasionally rejects blank cds, and i can't create a wireless network. microphone does not work as well (during video chat, people can't hear me properly). also, i am currently on my 3rd OEM battery, but the mac dies at 73% (service battery), so I basically need to keep it constantly plugged in)

so, for this winter, i have around 3k ready to purchase a new macbook pro. i've been constantly doing research for the past few months, and checking the buying guide for mbp news. the mbp im looking to purchase is: 15in core i7 2.8gHz high res antiglare 128gb ssd and 8gb ram.
but after hearing the incoming light peak and usb 3.0, im really starting to hesitate. even the macrumors buying guide says: although apple introduced 2.8, it does not count as an "upgrade", but indicates that an upgrade is not imminent (but at the same time, its under the status: do not buy, updates soon)

so, my question is, should i purchase that mbp? i honestly dont want to regret buying it after a whole new redesigned mbp comes out during the summer, or LP/USB3.0 is introduced. i could purchase the 17 and make use of the expresscard slot for LP/USB3.0, but the 17in is way too bulky! i could really just reinstall my current mbp, and clear everything in the hard drive (it might be a lot faster and newer), but is it worth taking the risk of purchasing a new mac? Is the currently technology improvement speed fast enough that i7 will be "outdated" in 2011/2012? i could also purchase an applecare and hope if the i7 breaks down, they can exchange me for the "updated" version... please help...

i also just read up some information about sandy bridge. just wondering, how early will this new processor be implemented? surely, it will go to pcs first for "testing" and then apple will throw it in their mbps, but is there THAT big of a speed bump to core i7?
post #2 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by blueeddie View Post

so, my question is, should i purchase that mbp?

I would say no for a few reasons. Light Peak is ahead of schedule apparently and it was demonstrated by Intel on a Mac system at IDF, which indicates they will be among the first to use it in the first half of 2011.

The SSD industry is moving to 25nm so this will half the cost per GB - basically you will get a 256GB SSD for the same price as a 128GB in as little as 3 months.

If you think about the ports you get on a MBP and the recent MBA, then consider they take out the optical and put 2 combined USB/Light Peak ports on either side, Mini-DP on the right, audio + mag-safe on the left.

With the cost saving from the optical removal, they can either lower the price or do something interesting like switch to the SSD chips. The reason for this is to get the instant-on capability (i.e you basically never shut down the machine). This would probably annoy people who want 1TB of storage but Light Peak would make up for it as you can get a portable 1TB drive with Light Peak and get 10Gbps transfer rates so just as fast as an internal.

They may leave enough room for both though so you can get 128GB SSD by default with an empty drive bay for a $100 HDD.

The Sandy Bridge chip upgrades over the current machines won't be mind-blowingly faster - they only do this when they bump the transistor count after the die-shrink. This happens with 22nm Ivy Bridge and can bump up the core count. Ivy Bridge will put quad cores on the low-end so if you wait until late 2011, you could even buy the cheaper 13" model. Sandy Bridge is a 15-20% improvement.

What I think could happen is the following:

Early 2011:
White Macbook is dropped form the lineup and replaced with the MBA
Entry MBA would have Sandy Bridge Core i-series chip at a low clock speed say 1.4GHz (not sure which clocks will be available) but this will match the 2.4GHz C2D for performance
NVidia patch their IGP into the Southbridge bypassing the licensing block from Intel - possibly 320M or the next gen

Macbook Pro is redesigned similar to the MBA with an SSD chip inside. There would only be a 15" model as the 13" MBA replaces the 13" MBP. Tops out at 256GB of storage.

The 15" MBP would have a spare internal drive bay for higher capacity.

All of them have Light Peak, all of them have core-i series chips with NVidia GPUs, all of them use the instant-on SSD memory and none of them have internal optical drives.

Late 2011:
Entry-level moves from dual-core to quad-core, high-end can move to 6-core.

Ivy Bridge is going to see a massive drop in desktop sales. We are already at 70:30 in favour of laptops. I can see Ivy Bridge push it to 80:20. When they get quad core in a MBA, why would you want a huge static iMac when you just sit the tiny 11" MBA next to whatever screen you want? Wireless connectivity (WiDi) is icing on the cake.
post #3 of 20
Thread Starter 
So will the late 2011 mbp be a huge increase in speed from te early 2011? And how early are we talking? February or all the way in June? Since you said quad core will move to 6-core, wouldn't that be a huge speed bump?
post #4 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by blueeddie View Post

So will the late 2011 mbp be a huge increase in speed from te early 2011?

Doubtful.

Quote:
And how early are we talking? February or all the way in June?

Ask Intel.

Quote:
Since you said quad core will move to 6-core, wouldn't that be a huge speed bump?

No, not at all.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #5 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by blueeddie View Post

So will the late 2011 mbp be a huge increase in speed from te early 2011?

It depends on which chips Apple use. Apple like low power chips because they can emphasise battery life. There are quad-core chips out now but they consume too much power. What Intel tends to do with the mobile quads is under-clock them so the improvement ends up being less than you'd expect.

Given that the current machines are all dual-core though, I would expect the performance bump in that case to be fairly significant. Generally, manufacturers aim for double performance every 18-24 months. Sandy Bridge will be a 15-20% jump so they need to make a bigger jump at the die-shrink to make up for it. So if they double the cores to 4 and under-clock them a bit to keep the power down, they can make up the larger percentage that's left, which probably won't be as much as 80% over that time frame but more than 15-20%. Quad core jumps are around 50% faster.

Basically if you're prepared to wait, then wait for Ivy Bridge but there's no harm in buying Sandy Bridge and then upgrading. You wouldn't lose that much money.

Quote:
Originally Posted by blueeddie View Post

And how early are we talking? February or all the way in June?

I'd expect to find out more from CES 2011:

http://www.cesweb.org/

Jan 6-9. There will be announcements there and probably info about their new SSDs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by blueeddie View Post

Since you said quad core will move to 6-core, wouldn't that be a huge speed bump?

Probably but Apple might not even use 6-core versions, it depends on their power consumption. They will most likely use a range of clock-speeds over the quad range so for example quad 1.4GHz up to quad 2.8GHz or something like that. With hyper-threading, these will show up as 8-cores.

This is why the Macbook Air is the model to watch because when you get an entry-level 8-thread ultra-portable with an SSD running at >150MB/s with 4GB RAM and a GPU >= 320M and Light Peak, there's not many places to go after that. Just put the backlit keyboard back on it really.
post #6 of 20
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post

Basically if you're prepared to wait, then wait for Ivy Bridge but there's no harm in buying Sandy Bridge and then upgrading. You wouldn't lose that much money.

So, you're saying, the new macbook pro 15in that might come out around February will most likely have Sandy Bridge implemented and will have a 15-20% speed increase as compared to 2.8 core i7. and during late 2011, when ivy bridge takes in, i'll be able to upgrade? also, around what time of the year could the quad-core jump occur?

you suggested to wait for ivy bridge, based on the current status, what month could that be?
i'm really sorry i'm asking you to project and estimate the time. but im definitely looking to purchase a mbp before february-march. and i honestly hope, the update that will be released then won't be that big of a difference to the update that will be available later on during the year, but at the same time a pretty significant increase to core i7. is the quad-core jump similar to his years jump from core2duo to core i5 and i7 (thats a big increase in speed...)

basically, if sandy bridge is implemented in february and makes a big change in design, i'll most likely be waiting for it. is there any possibility that apple will release a whole new mbp redesigned before march? or do i have to wait till june for the big change with LP and sandy bridge?
post #7 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by blueeddie View Post

So, you're saying, the new macbook pro 15in that might come out around February will most likely have Sandy Bridge implemented and will have a 15-20% speed increase as compared to 2.8 core i7.

Yes, that's right.

Quote:
Originally Posted by blueeddie View Post

and during late 2011, when ivy bridge takes in, i'll be able to upgrade? also, around what time of the year could the quad-core jump occur?

When I say upgrade, I mean you sell the current one on eBay for example and buy the new one not upgrade parts or trade-in. Ivy Bridge is due Q4 2011 so no earlier than October. October would be a good time to ship though because of the school start and quad-cores across the lineup is a good incentive for people to buy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by blueeddie View Post

im definitely looking to purchase a mbp before february-march. and i honestly hope, the update that will be released then won't be that big of a difference to the update that will be available later on during the year, but at the same time a pretty significant increase to core i7. is the quad-core jump similar to his years jump from core2duo to core i5 and i7 (thats a big increase in speed...)

I really think it will be the other way round. Going from 2-core to 4-core should jump further than Nehalem to Sandy Bridge. Like I say though, when they increase the core count, they often under-clock them so I don't expect more than 50% increase. In everyday situations, you won't notice much difference from one generation to the next. You generally only notice performance differences 2-3 generations apart. With GPUs this isn't the case though as they can jump up 2-3x in a single update.

Quote:
Originally Posted by blueeddie View Post

basically, if sandy bridge is implemented in february and makes a big change in design, i'll most likely be waiting for it. is there any possibility that apple will release a whole new mbp redesigned before march? or do i have to wait till june for the big change with LP and sandy bridge?

They haven't had the current design that long but I think they should make a change now to look more like the MBA. It will depend on their support of Light Peak as well as connections for legacy ports like FW800.
post #8 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post

Early 2011:

Macbook Pro is redesigned similar to the MBA with an SSD chip inside. There would only be a 15" model as the 13" MBA replaces the 13" MBP. Tops out at 256GB of storage.

Hi Marvin,

Thanks so much for your informative post.

You seem to have some solid info on the timelines for next year's product line, etc., so I'm wondering if you can be any more specific on when we might see the MacBook Pro redesign due next year, other than "early 2011"?

January, February, later?

Any additional info would be most appreciated!
post #9 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by jabezz View Post

You seem to have some solid info on the timelines for next year's product line, etc., so I'm wondering if you can be any more specific on when we might see the MacBook Pro redesign due next year, other than "early 2010"?

There's rarely any solid info on what Apple do but they base their products on 3rd party components and Intel is the best to watch for updates. Intel have confirmed they will launch Sandy Bridge at CES 2011, which is January 6-9. This means it's likely Apple will update the laptop line in January or February.

Intel will also announce 25nm SSD, which will half the price per GB so any machine available today with 128GB SSD will get 256GB SSD for the same price. The entry MBA can get 128GB and replace the white Macbook.

I'd expect Light Peak to get a mention and early support from Apple.

If they do this, I would expect them to redesign the MBP around flash technology too.

They may not do it at this revision though. There's a chance that they will hold off a redesign like this until Ivy Bridge given that Ivy Bridge goes all quad-core and then nobody can really complain about performance on the 11" MBA.

One thing to note is that the Macbook and Macbook Pro are both near or past their average update cycle and Apple typically doesn't release updates this late in the year. If they hold back until Sandy Bridge, which makes sense, they will both be well past their update cycle. I would expect new models in January because of this. Like I say though, with Apple you can never tell for sure.

IMO, them adding two USB ports, dropping the MBA price and putting the screen res higher than the MB are signs pointing to the entry MBA replacing the white MB and the transition is inevitable.

The new lineup, I'd see being the following:

11" MBA
128GB SSD
2GB RAM
1.6GHz Core i3 Sandy Bridge with NVidia IGP on the Southbridge
$999

13" MBA
256GB SSD
2GB RAM
2.1GHz Core i3 SB with NVidia IGP
$1299

15" MBP
256GB SSD
4GB RAM
2.5GHz Core i5 with NVidia dedicated
$1699 (no optical drive)

The 17" model would be similar to the 15" and each model would have a variety of upgrades like SSD capacity, RAM etc. Clock speeds are just guesses as we don't know what the processor models are yet. That lineup would be ok IMO. SSD BTO upgrades could still be pricey but I reckon the benefits outweigh that and the 15" can be built to accommodate a 2.5" drive with the optical taken out.
post #10 of 20
Hi Marvin,

Thanks so much for your quick reply! I'm tempted by the MacBook Air -- I love how thin and light it is -- but practically speaking, I'd prefer a 15" screen and a computer with the ability to grow with me and future technological developments. I'm desperate for a new laptop (in grad school with an elderly and slow mac laptop) so I'm trying to hold on and wait for the MacBook Pro rather than go out and get what could be classified as an impulse purchase if I got a MacBook Air.

I would like the ability to do audio and video editing, which I think the Air could handle, albeit a bit slower, but perhaps the redesigned Pro will be the happy medium I'm looking for: all the power I want, and perhaps a lighter redesigned body.

Thanks for your feedback -- I'm going to try to wait it out and hopefully it will happen sooner rather than later.

Cheers!
post #11 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by blueeddie View Post

so, my question is, should i purchase that mbp?

If you want max powerful processing, screen real estate and max portability you might want to look at a combination of an i7 iMac with a big screen for at home, and an iPad, and Remote Desktop software http://www.teamviewer.com/index.aspx (free for personal use) for on the road. You would have all the power of the i7 iMac, and all your data/software at your fingertips wherever you go, with a portability that beats that of the MBA!
post #12 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rokcet Scientist View Post

If you want max powerful processing, screen real estate and max portability you might want to look at a combination of an i7 iMac with a big screen for at home, and an iPad, and http://www.teamviewer.com/index.aspx (free for personal use) for on the road. You would have all the power of the i7 iMac, and all your data/software at your fingertips wherever you go, with a portability that beats that of the MBA!

I know you like to recommend Teamviewer but nearly 10% of all your posts mention it combined with SEO links and they have a support line in the Netherlands. Should that be cause for concern? Spamming rules apply as much to regular forum members as it does for people who come here solely to promote software. Although Teamviewer is free for non-commercial use, it is a commercial website. Are you in any way affiliated with that company? Either way, please refrain from using SEO formatted links.
post #13 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post

I know you like to recommend Teamviewer but nearly 10% of all your posts mention it

Thanks for keeping stats (I guess)...
Quote:
combined with SEO links and they have a support line in the Netherlands. Should that be cause for concern?

To you it is, apparently.
Quote:
Spamming rules apply as much to regular forum members as it does for people who come here solely to promote software. Although Teamviewer is free for non-commercial use,

No, it's free for personal use. So personal commercial use would be OK.
Quote:
it is a commercial website.

So is Apple's...
Quote:
Are you in any way affiliated with that company?

I am a lot less affiliated with that company than you are with Apple, seeing as you're running an Apple board that recommends Apple hard- and software all day everyday. If I am 'spamming', then by your own criterion your 'spamming' is a lot more serious than mine...
Teamviewer (free for personal use) is simply a very convenient, underrated, and too little known piece of software for PC, Mac, and Linux users. Which is the sole reason why I recommend it. I.o.w. that is not spam.
Quote:
Either way, please refrain from using SEO formatted links.

WTF is an "SEO formatted link"?
A link is a link, afaic, and I plan on using them as long as everybody else here can and does.
post #14 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rokcet Scientist View Post

Thanks for keeping stats (I guess)...

I am a lot less affiliated with that company than you are with Apple, seeing as you're running an Apple board that recommends Apple hard- and software all day everyday. If I am 'spamming', then by your own criterion your 'spamming' is a lot more serious than mine...

WTF is an "SEO formatted link"?
A link is a link, afaic.

An SEO link is one where you place specific text next to a link so that Google associates that text with the website and promotes it. For example, if you type in "remote desktop" into Google, teamviewer is almost the highest up. Google gets that association from SEO links. If you post such links 72 times on a forum like AI then it adds a great deal of weight to that association.

Similarly if you type in "convert online", you will see links to youconvertit, which you have posted over 45 times on this site.

Your suggestion about Apple would be true if I posted links to their store with associated text that promoted those items. It also wouldn't really matter if I did promote Apple because as you say it's an Apple forum and also it's not for my personal gain. If you are affiliated with the companies you are posting for then you are using the forum for personal gain, which is against the posting guidelines.

I'm not the only one who has noticed this btw. You have been reported in the past by other members for posting those links repeatedly. I'm just looking for clarification that you're not associated with the companies in any way and to be honest your last post (pre-edit) suggested that you are.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rokcet scientist

Which is the sole reason why I recommend it. I.o.w. that is not spam.

It's not spam to recommend free software but it is if you are simultaneously promoting the site containing a commercial version of it but again only if you have reason to gain from it.
post #15 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post

An SEO link is one where you place specific text next to a link so that Google associates that text with the website and promotes it. For example, if you type in "remote desktop" into Google, teamviewer is almost the highest up. Google gets that association from SEO links. If you post such links 72 times on a forum like AI then it adds a great deal of weight to that association.

Excellent, that was the object of the exercise.
So I have to post it 62 more times...?
I'm glad you're keeping track.
Quote:
Similarly if you type in "convert online", you will see links to youconvertit, which you have posted over 45 times on this site.

Again, thanks for keeping stats.
post #16 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post


Early 2011:
White Macbook is dropped form the lineup and replaced with the MBA
Macbook Pro is redesigned similar to the MBA with an SSD chip inside. There would only be a 15" model as the 13" MBA replaces the 13" MBP. Tops out at 256GB of storage.

Dropping both the MB and MBP 13" seems very unlikely. The MBA is still more expensive than the MB (and slower) when you factor in the cost of the external optical drive. This is of importance to students.

The 13" MBP is vulnerable but I could see them leaving the MB with the C2D and bumping the 13" MBP up first. The 13" MBP is faster than the MBA and has longer battery life.

256GB top end storage is far too small for a pro device. There are 512GB SSDs. The problem is cost.

Quote:
The 15" MBP would have a spare internal drive bay for higher capacity.

Highly unlikely that Apple would leave any large voids inside their laptops for expansion in the default model. Far more likely is a BTO option that allows either a HDD or optical drive as in the mini.

Quote:
All of them have Light Peak, all of them have core-i series chips with NVidia GPUs, all of them use the instant-on SSD memory and none of them have internal optical drives.

They all might get a SSD to improve speed but I believe that they will still include a HDD due to cost. Whether they keep their optical drives is debatable but seems likely at least as a BTO option in 2011. Pairing a std 64-256GB SSD with either an optical or 500GB HDD seems more reasonable.

Quote:
Ivy Bridge is going to see a massive drop in desktop sales. We are already at 70:30 in favour of laptops. I can see Ivy Bridge push it to 80:20. When they get quad core in a MBA, why would you want a huge static iMac when you just sit the tiny 11" MBA next to whatever screen you want? Wireless connectivity (WiDi) is icing on the cake.

Because the 11" MBA will still be far far slower than the bottom end iMac and the iPad 3 a reasonably complete mobile device?
post #17 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rokcet Scientist View Post

Excellent, that was the object of the exercise.
So I have to post it 62 more times...?

If a significant portion of your posts are made for the purposes of promoting software that you may or may not be affiliated with then you are spamming. This forum is not here for you to promote whatever software you choose. It annoys other users when you post the same links over and over. Why not treat this forum like the other forum you posted those links on?

http://archaeologica.boardbot.com/vi...=2411&start=15
http://archaeologica.boardbot.com/vi...hp?f=10&t=2655

Once each out of 3484 posts. Spamming ratio of 0.05%.
On AI, it's at least 117 times out of 817 = spamming ratio of > 14%.

It's just not appropriate to do that on the forum. It's not so bad if someone asks about remote desktop software but when someone is wanting to buy a Macbook Pro, you're really stretching the reasons for even mentioning it.

There's no harm in liking free software and recommending it just because you like it but when you do it to that extent, your motives appear to go beyond harmless recommendations.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nht

This is of importance to students.

You mean all the students who are legally purchasing DVDs? I think weight and size are more important to students than anything as they have to carry them in backpacks all day long.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nht

256GB top end storage is far too small for a pro device. There are 512GB SSDs. The problem is cost.

The 13" Pro would be replaced by the Air but you're right 256GB might be just too much of a limiting factor. If the prices allowed 512GB at a reasonable rate, it would be better. Right now, Apple are charging $2-3 per GB for SSD. When 25nm hits in January, they should be able to offer 512GB in the $1599 MBA for the same price.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nht

Highly unlikely that Apple would leave any large voids inside their laptops for expansion in the default model. Far more likely is a BTO option that allows either a HDD or optical drive as in the mini.

They could of course bundle a hard drive with it. A 2.5" HDD is about 1/3 of the size of an optical so I don't think they'd offer it as an option of one or the other.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nht

Because the 11" MBA will still be far far slower than the bottom end iMac and the iPad 3 a reasonably complete mobile device?

The cost of the lowest iPad + lowest iMac = $1698.
A Macbook Air is $999. Add on a big screen for $200 = $1199.

Once the lowest end goes quad-core, I think more and more people will move to it and opt for the laptops.
post #18 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin View Post

You mean all the students who are legally purchasing DVDs? I think weight and size are more important to students than anything as they have to carry them in backpacks all day long.

Well, they have to be able to rip too you know. Netflix is affordable for students.

Quote:
They could of course bundle a hard drive with it. A 2.5" HDD is about 1/3 of the size of an optical so I don't think they'd offer it as an option of one or the other.

Either way it seems unlikely they'll leave this huge empty space in there.

Quote:
The cost of the lowest iPad + lowest iMac = $1698.
A Macbook Air is $999. Add on a big screen for $200 = $1199.

Once the lowest end goes quad-core, I think more and more people will move to it and opt for the laptops.

Ah...show me any Apple monitor that goes for $200. There are few 21" IPS monitors for less than $300 and using the price of the base Air doesn't seem all that reasonable given it's the slowest possible mac in the entire lineup and comes with 2GB of RAM and 64GB of SDD. Plus you probably want to factor in a keyboard and mouse...it's just not all that comfortable to type on the MBA and look at the large monitor at the same time.

Arguably even the base Mac Mini will be always be faster than the MBA of the same generation.

So the cost delta from MBA vs Mac Desktop + iPad really is only $199.
post #19 of 20
MacRumors has a buyer's guide that tells when to buy a certain Apple item: http://goo.gl/y8V3. According to that it says you should not buy a MacBook Pro. I hope you will talk my suggestion into account.
post #20 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

Either way it seems unlikely they'll leave this huge empty space in there.

If a hard drive or extra SSD is bundled, it wouldn't be empty. They can preconfigure the SSD drives in RAID-0. The Macbook Pro should offer a RAID option.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

Ah...show me any Apple monitor that goes for $200. There are few 21" IPS monitors for less than $300

It doesn't have to be an Apple one. It's true there are few IPS displays for $200 but even at $300, it's still less than the iMac + iPad by $400.

Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

using the price of the base Air doesn't seem all that reasonable given it's the slowest possible mac in the entire lineup and comes with 2GB of RAM and 64GB of SDD.

Arguably even the base Mac Mini will be always be faster than the MBA of the same generation.

I wasn't comparing the current lineup but when Ivy Bridge arrives late 2011. The entry will have quad-core with 128GB SSD. Given that this option + display is cheaper than an iMac + iPad but will still be fast enough to satisfy most needs, I think it will become more popular to the point it starts eroding even more desktop sales beyond the 70:30 ratio we already see now.
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