Originally Posted by Carmissimo
Exactly. Even if Apple could have prepared iPad Version 2 for a late-fall debut, this way the competition will be preparing for an assault on the current iPad but by the time their plans are finalized, Apple will unleash a significantly upgraded iPad. It will be quite a few months before the competition can respond to that product and by the time they do, Apple will be close to bringing out iPad Version 3.
This is more or less what happened with the media player space and we all know how that turned out.
There is a very sophisticated process going on here, akin to a war.
Apple has a strategy and has positioned itself with supplies, manufacturers, and internal R&D (iOS, chip design, battery design, case design, etc..
The competition has no strategy only tactics -- get something out there, soon!
-- that Apple has several prototype iPads in the wings (potentially, including a 7-incher).
-- If the need arises, Apple can gear up and demo, whatever, within a month
-- they could ramp up production, to, say, 1.2 million units per month in 90 days
... and go from there... if the need arises.
That should be sufficient for Apple to maintain their competitive lead.
Reportedly, the Samsung Galaxy Tab is the biggest competitor to the iPad.
Somewhere, Samsung was reported as saying that they planned to build 100,000 Galaxy Tabs per month through the next 12 months.
Now, Samsung has access to parts and production facilities (Samsung makes most of the expensive, specialty parts in the Tab) -- yet they plan to make less in a year than the number of iPads made in a month,
Some claim the Rim PlayBook is to be
a major competitor
-- early next year
. Who will manufacture the Dual-core A9 ARM * chip and the 1 GB of RAM chips (and whatever GPU chip). And in what quantity.
Does Rim have the parts, manufacturing and distribution facilities, lined up, to deliver even 100,000 per month? If they can't -- can Rim make any profit on the PlayBook (or even recover R&D costs)?
* ARM Holdings has very intricate licensing as to who can modify their designs and who can build the chips.
The $499 iPad costs Apple $264 in parts.
Lets say, the $499 PlayBook costs the same.
If you assume that the remaining $235 is all profit (for Rim), and assume they can deliver 100,000 PlayBooks per month...
Rim would make a gross profit of $282 Million (US) on the PlayBook in its first year.
Now, for a little reality:
-- Assume the Dual-Core A9 costs twice as much as the A4 in those quantities
-- Assume the 1GB RAM cost at least 4 times as much as the 256 MB RAM in the iPad
-- Assume a high-end (unannounced) GPU that costs more than the iPad GPU
-- Assume all other comparable parts will be more expensive at those quantities
So, the PlayBook costs, likely, will be a lot higher than the iPad's $265-- and the profit per unit in the $100-$200 range.Now, does anyone believe that Rim will sell even 1 million PlayBooks in 12 months?