Leaked Cables Depict a World Guessing About North Korea Quote:
The cables about North Korea some emanating from Seoul, some from Beijing, many based on interviews with government officials, and others with scholars, defectors and other experts are long on educated guesses and short on facts, illustrating why their subject is known as the Black Hole of Asia. Because they are State Department documents, not intelligence reports, they do not include the most secret American assessments, or the American militarys plans in case North Korea disintegrates or lashes out.
They contain loose talk and confident predictions of the end of the family dynasty that has ruled North Korea for 65 years. Those discussions were fueled by a rash of previously undisclosed defections of ranking North Korean diplomats, who secretly sought refuge in the South.
But they were also influenced by a remarkable period of turmoil inside North Korea, including an economic crisis set off by the governments failed effort to revalue its currency and sketchy intelligence suggesting that the North Korean military might not abide the rise of Mr. Kims inexperienced young son, Kim Jong-un, who was recently made a four-star general despite having no military experience.
The cables reveal that in private, the Chinese, long seen as North Koreas last protectors against the West, occasionally provide the Obama administration with colorful assessments of the state of play in North Korea. Chinese officials themselves sometimes even laugh about the frustrations of dealing with North Korean paranoia.......
WikiLeaks: China weary of North Korea behaving like 'spoiled child'
The cables also show that almost as soon as the Obama administration came to office, it started raising alarms that the North was buying up components to enrich uranium, opening a second route for it to build nuclear weapons. (Until now, the Norths arsenal has been based on its production of plutonium, but its production capacity has been halted.)
In June 2009, at a lunch in Beijing shortly after the North Korean nuclear test, two senior Chinese Foreign Ministry officials reported that Chinas experts believed the enrichment was only in its initial phases. In fact, based on what the North Koreans revealed this month, an industrial-scale enrichment plant was already under construction. It was apparently missed by both American and Chinese intelligence services.
The cables make it clear that the South Koreans believe that internal tensions in the North have reached a boiling point. In January of this year, South Koreas foreign minister, who later resigned, reported to a visiting American official that the South Koreans saw an increasingly chaotic situation in the North.......
New documents posted on the websites of the Guardian and The New York Times suggest Chinese officials are losing patience with long-time ally North Korea. Senior figures in Beijing have even described the regime in the North as behaving like a "spoiled child."
According to cables obtained by WikiLeaks, South Korea's then vice foreign minister, Chun Yung-woo, said earlier this year that senior Chinese officials (whose names are redacted in the cables) had told him they believed Korea should be reunified under Seoul's control, and that this view was gaining ground with the leadership in Beijing.......
Chun, who has since become South Korea's National Security Adviser, dismissed the prospect of China's military intervention in the event of a North Korean collapse, noting that "China's strategic economic interests now lie with the United States, Japan, and South Korea -- not North Korea."
This might prove to be an interesting proposition. China boots out the Kim Dynasty, forces NK to realign with SK for transition to unified country. US forces kept below the 38th with eventual withdrawal. Unified Korea non-aligned with US or China except for economic ties.....
SK's economy would take a downturn---worse than W. Germany when reunification took place. Would it be worth it? NK traditionally was the stronger with more industrial potential and resources than SK. Long term more stability in that part of Asia. Removal of all nukes from Korea.