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NPD: 11% of consumers likely to purchase Apple iPad by February

post #1 of 54
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In a survey of consumers conducted by the NPD Group, 11 percent said they are likely to purchase an iPad from Apple by February of 2011.

The data from a NPD "fact sheet" issued for the holiday consumer electronics buying season suggests the sales momentum for Apple's iPad has shown no signs of slowing down. Last quarter, Apple sold 4.19 million iPads, its best three-month span yet in the product's short lifespan thus far.

NPD also reiterated its findings that iPad usage increases with length of ownership. Consumers who owned an iPad for two months or less use it a fair amount: about 15 hours per week.

But time of use increases for those who have owned their iPad for a longer period of time. For those who have had Apple's touchscreen tablet for three months or more, the average length of use is about 18 hours per week.

NPD also found that 58 percent of iPad owners opted for the Wi-Fi-only model. The remaining 42 percent paid the extra $130 to have a 3G radio for wireless connectivity on the go.

For those who take their iPad outside their home, 37 percent said they use it on trips or vacations. Another 21 percent said their iPad has found uses at work, and 7 percent use the iPad on their commute to work.

NPD also revealed that 86 percent of Mac users own two or more computers. Comparatively, 65 percent of Windows PC owners have two or more computers. For Mac owners, it's likely that at least one of their extra computers is a Windows-based machine, as 97 percent of all households that have a PC own a Windows PC.
post #2 of 54
What's the size of the population that NPD's sample is meant to represent? All US consumers? And what does that mean -- people over the age of 18?

How does 11% compare to other products? How predictive have these surveys been in the past?
post #3 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

But time of use increases for those who have owned their iPad for a longer period of time. For those who have had Apple's touchscreen tablet for three months or more, the average length of use is about 18 hours per week.

This is what happened with me. At first I was wondering why I bought it. Now I use it all the time, mostly for browsing the web and email when at home.

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post #4 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

In a survey of consumers conducted by the NPD Group, 11 percent said they are likely to purchase an iPad from Apple by February of 2011.

22% after the Oprah show...
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post #5 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

How does 11% compare to other products? How predictive have these surveys been in the past?

I know, 11% seems a little high.

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post #6 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

likely to purchase an iPad from Apple by February of 2011.

How many of these people are holding out for iPad 2 and are thinking it will be out (or at least revealed) by February. I, for one, have been waiting for iPad 2 since iPhone 4 came out, and have been waiting for those features (camera, bigger processor) to make it to the iPad
post #7 of 54
A rational question, Blastdoor. Who are "consumers"?

To make the assumption than 1 in 10 americans will buy an ipad is rediculous.

I work in a technology department- so, people who are open to adopting technology. There's about 80 people here. Only 1 owns an iPad and I doubt it'll expand much more than that. Perhaps 3 at most. That's far from 11%.
post #8 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

What's the size of the population that NPD's sample is meant to represent? All US consumers? And what does that mean -- people over the age of 18?

How does 11% compare to other products? How predictive have these surveys been in the past?

You'd probably have to be one of NPD's clients to get that information.
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post #9 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleSux View Post

A rational question, Blastdoor. Who are "consumers"?

To make the assumption than 1 in 10 americans will buy an ipad is rediculous.

I work in a technology department- so, people who are open to adopting technology. There's about 80 people here. Only 1 owns an iPad and I doubt it'll expand much more than that. Perhaps 3 at most. That's far from 11%.

There are 2 people in our household. We own 1 iPad. That's far greater than 11%.
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post #10 of 54
That story should push the stock up a little more
post #11 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleSux View Post

A rational question, Blastdoor. Who are "consumers"?

To make the assumption than 1 in 10 americans will buy an ipad is rediculous.

I work in a technology department- so, people who are open to adopting technology. There's about 80 people here. Only 1 owns an iPad and I doubt it'll expand much more than that. Perhaps 3 at most. That's far from 11%.

OTOH, I work for a company (web security) that has 600,000 online clients (out of 1.2Million), relatively high value (we're a financial management firm) who log in approx monthly, and have 20,000 franchisee (entrepeneurial) financial managers. At the moment only 5% of accesses are from non Windows systems, and 2% from iOS. that's up from 0.1% at the beginning of the year (20X growth in 10.5 months, or more than doubling every quarter). If that 2% went to 6-10% in 6 months, that would have dramatic impacts in our customer service, and in site planning (less flash and activeX, more html5 and javascript). That's significant. that 20,000 'salesmen' are 'early adopters' of technology, and I'm certain, I'll be seeing demands for iPad apps for their workflows (key: paperless account opening.... 'sign my iPad, and give me a check for 10,000, and you'll be starting the retirement of yoru dreams'... KaCHING! [and not lugging about a laptop, or hoping to close the deal at the office tomorrow])

not 1 in 10 americans, 1 in 10 consumers (When I see consumers, I think households)

I would think 1 in 10 households having at least 1 iPad is more than reasonable.
That would equate to 10 Million households, which given the fact they're selling a run rate of 3 million a month worldwide, with capacities growing to 4M, that's a reasonable number.

Basically, what this is saying to me (a web security guy)
- Safari/iOS/HTML5 will be the new threat vector of interest, unless it's more secure than Win7/IE8.
As a User Experience person: Developing an Ipad app will be viewed as a net plus to your consumer base, if you develop an intuitive multi-touch nav map. Especially for 'instant gratification' sorts of things (check balances, pay bills, xfer money, buy stuff).
post #12 of 54
I feel sorry for people I see come into the cafe with a huge bag containg their laptop and stuff desperately looking for a power outlet. They need a table cause it gets too hot, so a nice comfy chair is out.
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post #13 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

said they are likely to purchase an iPad .

People often are optimistic when stating that they plan to buy something that they want. The 11% probably more accurately reflects the amount of people that want to buy an iPad. Or as TheOtherGeoff stated 11% of households but I still think that is high.
post #14 of 54
We're close enough to the iPad 2 now that I would advise those customers to wait. I would not buy an iPad in February if I expected a new model in March. Who knows though, maybe it will be out earlier than that.
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post #15 of 54
That's 11% of people who will be pissed when iPad 2 is released in March.
post #16 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmf2 View Post

We're close enough to the iPad 2 now that I would advise those customers to wait. I would not buy an iPad in February if I expected a new model in March. Who knows though, maybe it will be out earlier than that.

It's not unreasonable to think that some people will go ahead and buy an iPad now and then also buy the iPad2 in March. Once a household has one iPad I think it's only a matter of time before they have two.
post #17 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmf2 View Post

We're close enough to the iPad 2 now that I would advise those customers to wait. I would not buy an iPad in February if I expected a new model in March. Who knows though, maybe it will be out earlier than that.


Aside from a camera, what do you expect the differences to be? Maybe a little speed, more RAM? Unless you are planning to use it for FaceTime, what would compel even a current iPad user to upgrade. It is not like you should be worried about resale value. I wonder how much enjoyment I will get from my current iPad between now and whenever the new one comes out.

I can tell you one thing that would be really cool about FaceTime, would be AirPlay the other person to a TV so everyone in the room could see.

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post #18 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleSux View Post

A rational question, Blastdoor. Who are "consumers"?

To make the assumption than 1 in 10 americans will buy an ipad is rediculous.

I work in a technology department- so, people who are open to adopting technology. There's about 80 people here. Only 1 owns an iPad and I doubt it'll expand much more than that. Perhaps 3 at most. That's far from 11%.

Check back with us in February. I'll bet you $100 that more than 4 own iPads by then. Actually forget February, check back with us when everyone is back in the office after Christmas day.
post #19 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleSux View Post

A rational question, Blastdoor. Who are "consumers"?

To make the assumption than 1 in 10 americans will buy an ipad is rediculous.

I work in a technology department- so, people who are open to adopting technology. There's about 80 people here. Only 1 owns an iPad and I doubt it'll expand much more than that. Perhaps 3 at most. That's far from 11%.

Let's see you report back in February with actual numbers.

BTW, did you scientifically poll your "peeps" to get your estimate? or did you pull it out of your ass??......

.....thought so.....


I see Malax beat me to the punch. I bet he won't take you up on your "bet" LOL ;-)
post #20 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleSux View Post

A rational question, Blastdoor. Who are "consumers"?

To make the assumption than 1 in 10 americans will buy an ipad is rediculous.

I work in a technology department- so, people who are open to adopting technology. There's about 80 people here. Only 1 owns an iPad and I doubt it'll expand much more than that. Perhaps 3 at most. That's far from 11%.

You dont think Apple can have an installed base that exceeds 30M? I think you are wrong.

Plus, your analysis is very limited. As seen on numerous occasions this past year the iPad is appealing to the vast majority of people who arent technical. Who dont work in technology departments and who dont measure their self worth by how complex of a system they can master. So, your data points are pretty much irrelevant to the real world.
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post #21 of 54
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Originally Posted by 8CoreWhore View Post

I feel sorry for people I see come into the cafe with a huge bag containg their laptop and stuff desperately looking for a power outlet. They need a table cause it gets too hot, so a nice comfy chair is out.

Unless their PC is a MacBook Air....
post #22 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

Aside from a camera, what do you expect the differences to be? Maybe a little speed, more RAM? Unless you are planning to use it for FaceTime, what would compel even a current iPad user to upgrade. It is not like you should be worried about resale value. I wonder how much enjoyment I will get from my current iPad between now and whenever the new one comes out.

I can tell you one thing that would be really cool about FaceTime, would be AirPlay the other person to a TV so everyone in the room could see.

Woah! That is absolutely doable with what is in place/store. Every household a video conferencing setup based on iPad/iPhone and AppleTV....

Wait, the other side should see my entire room and everyone in it. So, a small iSight camera attached to the TV?
post #23 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by SHOBIZ View Post

That story should push the stock up a little more

I hope so! It's only gone up $14 since I bought another 100 shares a week ago. This just isn't good enough
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post #24 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

You dont think Apple can have an installed base that exceeds 30M? I think you are wrong.

Plus, your analysis is very limited. As seen on numerous occasions this past year the iPad is appealing to the vast majority of people who arent technical. Who dont work in technology departments and who dont measure their self worth by how complex of a system they can master. So, your data points are pretty much irrelevant to the real world.

Oprah just proved your point!
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post #25 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by gctwnl View Post

Woah! That is absolutely doable with what is in place/store. Every household a video conferencing setup based on iPad/iPhone and AppleTV....

Wait, the other side should see my entire room and everyone in it. So, a small iSight camera attached to the TV?

No, another camera is too complicated. You could buy an available iPhone stand and use BT microphone. Set the iPhone in an appropriate vantage point.

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post #26 of 54
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Originally Posted by bcahill009 View Post

How many of these people are holding out for iPad 2 and are thinking it will be out (or at least revealed) by February. I, for one, have been waiting for iPad 2 since iPhone 4 came out, and have been waiting for those features (camera, bigger processor) to make it to the iPad

Apple will never have a product cycle of less than twelve months, it's commercial suicide. iPad two will not be on sale to the general public within twelve months of the original product sale date. All those hoping for something significant before this time will be very disappointed.

Also, just to note that I can see no reason for a bigger processor - the pad runs beautifully and doesn't have any performance issues. Numbers mean nothing.
post #27 of 54
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Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Oprah just proved your point!

Case in point, for sure. I was surprised at how quickly my mother took to it. I knew shed like it, but I didnt think shed be reading all her books on it. Personally, I dont use mine very much. Id rather have my Mac or my iPhone. I use it for some games, for converting Pages documents to ePub for studying, and watching AVIs when "mobile but stationary". I still grab my iPhone or Mac for email and internet.
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post #28 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleSux View Post

A rational question, Blastdoor. Who are "consumers"?

To make the assumption than 1 in 10 americans will buy an ipad is rediculous.

I work in a technology department- so, people who are open to adopting technology. There's about 80 people here. Only 1 owns an iPad and I doubt it'll expand much more than that. Perhaps 3 at most. That's far from 11%.

there are 3 people in my immediate work group of about 20 people at work who already own one. There are at least 2 or 3 more who have that look in their eye...

nothing to see here

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nothing to see here

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post #29 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleSux View Post

A rational question, Blastdoor. Who are "consumers"?

To make the assumption than 1 in 10 americans will buy an ipad is rediculous.

I work in a technology department- so, people who are open to adopting technology. There's about 80 people here. Only 1 owns an iPad and I doubt it'll expand much more than that. Perhaps 3 at most. That's far from 11%.

Consumers are laymen, general members of the public, not people who are IT professionals.

Technology professionals are people who are resistant to adopting technology btw, they are people who tend to build their own machines and be very stuck in their purchasing habits and preconceptions of what they feel technology should be. IT Professional purchases do not reflect the purchases of the general populous. Your assumption is flawed.

I know a lot of older people who would never have bought a laptop/desktop who are buying iPad - people like my mum (in her 60s) absolutely love it. She works in an office of 18 people, four have iPads. And this is in the UK within six months of launch.
post #30 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Case in point, for sure. I was surprised at how quickly my mother took to it. I knew shed like it, but I didnt think shed be reading all her books on it. Personally, I dont use mine very much. Id rather have my Mac or my iPhone. I use it for some games, for converting Pages documents to ePub for studying, and watching AVIs when "mobile but stationary". I still grab my iPhone or Mac for email and internet.

At the risk of moving off-topic...

I was very surprised to see how much work I could do on websites I'm responsible for that are managed with a web-based content management system. I never thought I'd be able to do 'paying work' on an iPad, but it turns out I can! It has come in quite handy in the photo studio as well, though on1's new iPad-native app will make it indispensable!

nothing to see here

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nothing to see here

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post #31 of 54
"as 97 percent of all households that have a PC own a Windows PC."

My guess is that this statistic is at least a decade old. The other possibility is that the author is citing world-wide data, in which case this is disingenuous at best.
post #32 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

You dont think Apple can have an installed base that exceeds 30M? I think you are wrong.

Plus, your analysis is very limited. As seen on numerous occasions this past year the iPad is appealing to the vast majority of people who arent technical. Who dont work in technology departments and who dont measure their self worth by how complex of a system they can master. So, your data points are pretty much irrelevant to the real world.


I think Apple's install base is currently about 50 million.
Macs only.
post #33 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cubert View Post

"as 97 percent of all households that have a PC own a Windows PC."

My guess is that this statistic is at least a decade old. The other possibility is that the author is citing world-wide data, in which case this is disingenuous at best.

There should always be a caveat to statements about the number of households with PCs; that to be included in the stats the Windows PC has to be the main computer in use today and not in the garage holding up a bucket.
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post #34 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleSux View Post

A rational question, Blastdoor. Who are "consumers"?

To make the assumption than 1 in 10 americans will buy an ipad is rediculous.

I work in a technology department- so, people who are open to adopting technology. There's about 80 people here. Only 1 owns an iPad and I doubt it'll expand much more than that. Perhaps 3 at most. That's far from 11%.

I guess the idea of assuming that someone who is "smart enough" to work in a technology department also knows how to spell is "ridiculous" . ....
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post #35 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

Aside from a camera, what do you expect the differences to be? Maybe a little speed, more RAM? Unless you are planning to use it for FaceTime, what would compel even a current iPad user to upgrade. It is not like you should be worried about resale value. I wonder how much enjoyment I will get from my current iPad between now and whenever the new one comes out.

I can tell you one thing that would be really cool about FaceTime, would be AirPlay the other person to a TV so everyone in the room could see.

You've seen the PlayBooks browsing speed right? It's running hardware very similar to what the second generation iPad will have. Personally, I'd be willing to wait for that kind of an upgrade. I couldn't care less about the camera though.

It's true that right now you would still get a few extra months of enjoyment from buying an iPad now and 4.2 makes the iPad better than ever, so it might be best for some people to buy one now, if they haven't yet. For me, I'm content to wait at this point. I wanted to buy one in April, but the money wasn't there. Now I've waited so long that a few more months doesn't seem like a big deal. Once February rolls around, I would definitely recommend that everyone one who can wait should.
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post #36 of 54
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Originally Posted by newbee View Post

I guess the idea of assuming that someone who is "smart enough" to work in a technology department also knows how to spell is "ridiculous" . ....

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post #37 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleSux View Post

I work in a technology department

Well, there's your answer! These folks are the first to adopt any technology, as long as it's not Apple.
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post #38 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post

Well, there's your answer! These folks are the first to adopt any technology, as long as it's not Apple.

You also have to question their definition of 'technology'.
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post #39 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleSux View Post

A rational question, Blastdoor. Who are "consumers"?

To make the assumption than 1 in 10 americans will buy an ipad is rediculous.

I work in a technology department- so, people who are open to adopting technology. There's about 80 people here. Only 1 owns an iPad and I doubt it'll expand much more than that. Perhaps 3 at most. That's far from 11%.


The one in ten (11%?) is not an assumption, but an inference from their survey. If Apple is selling two million per month, yes, it will take over a year to supply 11% of the US population.

However, it has ALREADY sold, nationwide, well over the rate of the 1 in 80 buyers in your department.

You guys are not keeping up!
post #40 of 54
His user name is "AppleSux" and he's never posted a word that wasn't shrill Apple bashing. Not super surprising that his "experience" would put Apple in a bad light.
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