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Report predicts "monster holiday season" for Apple

post #1 of 56
Thread Starter 
Apple appears set to ride a surging wave of holiday spending, with customers reporting a big jump in their plans to buy new Mac notebooks over the next three months.

According to research performed by ChangeWave, buyers who report plans to buy a new notebook computer in the next 90 days have peaked to 10 percent of the survey group of 2,812 people, the highest level noted in the last three years.

Apple's share of that market has also jumped, from around 25 percent to 36 percent of the survey group. Buyers' sharply increased plans are likely related to the introduction of the new MacBook Air, which reaches new lower price points while delivering iPad-like portability.

Research director Paul Carton wrote, "the manufacturer most responsible for the surge in laptop demand is Apple, with 36 percent of planned laptops buyers saying they'll purchase a Mac, a huge 11 percentage point jump since our previous survey of a month ago.

"Simply put," Carton said, "it's the highest level of planned laptop buying ever for Apple in a ChangeWave survey."
post #2 of 56
I wonder how those MacBook Airs will sell when they are just really slow “netbooks” for 3x the price, according to some.
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post #3 of 56
Curse those insider traders!!!

Like this should be a surprise to anyone here...
post #4 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I wonder how those MacBook Airs will sell when they are just really slow “netbooks” for 3x the price, according to some. \

New Benchmarks Show 13-Inch MacBook Air Rivaling Its MacBook Pro Counterpart



http://www.macrumors.com/2010/10/26/...o-counterpart/
post #5 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCJ001 View Post

New Benchmarks Show 13-Inch MacBook Air Rivaling Its MacBook Pro Counterpart



well, this shows that its faster, but this is access times, when you try running something CPU or GPU intensive, show me the benchmarks.

that being said, a lot of people wouldn't need this speed.

also, i believe a test was with flash, vs. w/ out flash, but no other add ons, i would say these tests aren't that great...

PC means personal computer.  

i have processing issues, mostly trying to get my ideas into speech and text.

if i say something confusing please tell me!

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PC means personal computer.  

i have processing issues, mostly trying to get my ideas into speech and text.

if i say something confusing please tell me!

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post #6 of 56
You pick up the average netbook at BestBuy and you're likely to think "yeah, it's about all I can afford, I guess."

You pick up an 11" Air and you're likely to think "I wonder if I can scrape up a little more money so I can get this?"

The combination of size, weight, solidity, full size keyboard, excellent screen and OS X is just very compelling. I have no earthly use for one and I have to talk myself down every time I pick one up. Typically for Apple, a lot of little things go into a highly desirable whole.

For instance, i think I remember some people claiming that the Apple videos showing the 11" being flipped open with one hand were misleading, because the thing was so light you had to hold it down to get the screen up. But every one I've played with gets that exactly right, where it's almost effortless to lift the screen, but it stays exactly where you put it. Don't know if wear and tear will take a toll on this, but if it's designed like my MacBook Pro it seems to hold up pretty well. I think Apple may be the only CE company out there that would be willing to spend (what I would imagine to be) a great deal of time and effort to make sure something like lifting and orienting the screen is excellent.
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post #7 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I wonder how those MacBook Airs will sell when they are just really slow netbooks for 3x the price, according to some. \


You mean "if", right, because let's face it, according to some, Elvis is still alive and working in a 7-11 in Tennessee .....
Apple, bigger than Google, ..... bigger than Microsoft,   The universe is unfolding as it should. Thanks, Apple.
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Apple, bigger than Google, ..... bigger than Microsoft,   The universe is unfolding as it should. Thanks, Apple.
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post #8 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbee View Post

You mean "if", right, because let's face it, according to some, Elvis is still alive and working in a 7-11 in Tennessee .....

I think “since” is most appropriate for my passive-agressive comment toward those that think the MBA is slower than a netbook.
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post #9 of 56
What happened to the recession?
post #10 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbee View Post

You mean "if", right, because let's face it, according to some, Elvis is still alive and working in a 7-11 in Tennessee .....

Not funny.
post #11 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pennywse View Post

Not funny.

Dont tell me you think Elvis is alive.
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post #12 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I wonder how those MacBook Airs will sell when they are just really slow netbooks for 3x the price, according to some. \

In fact they are slow notebook but fast netbooks. Even the air gimp core 2 duo are much faster than the intel atom you find in netbooks
post #13 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I wonder how those MacBook Airs will sell when they are just really slow netbooks for 3x the price, according to some. \

I've just ordered an 11" with the slightly faster processor and 4G RAM which is apparently the most popular configuration and pops up on the online store automatically. It will replace the original MBA that's nearly 3 years old (2/08).

The current one replaced my aluminum PB-G4. Are they slower than a mainframe? Yes. Is there anything I need that requires more speed? No.

Is the new MBA a netbook? No.

Do you have any idea of what you're talking about? No.

What is the problem with the posters on this site every day and night? Has anyone put a gun to your head and said you must buy Apple products? No.

I'm going to be 65 this weekend. I suffered through DOS and Windows for 15 or so years and then switched in 2004. The first computer I purchased was a DEC PDP-10. It cost $100K. Yes, a hundred thousand dollars when that was actually money (1981). My MBA can do more, faster, easier. I do have an Apple Display for photo editing.

Why oh why can't children like you be content with your toys and let others be happy with theirs? If you love WinTel, great. Enjoy, be happy. I wouldn't think to criticize your choices because I don't care. Unless you're shorting AAPL why do you all try to denigrate everything AAPL. And yes, I bought some stock at $175 and watched it tank, but had faith and now it's well over $300. But more importantly I love my Macs.

I think the AAPL haters just need to adhere to DADT. What do you guys say to that?
post #14 of 56
Was my sarcasm really that hard to pick up? I even added “according to some” followed by a disapproving emoticon.

PS: I edited my initial post to make it more obvious.
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post #15 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

I think Apple may be the only CE company out there that would be willing to spend (what I would imagine to be) a great deal of time and effort to make sure something like lifting and orienting the screen is excellent.

Someone, in "Welcome To Macintosh," said that Apple spends a lot of time and money designing their products, like MacBook (Airs, Pros, etc) to just work mechanically with little effort. And that aspects like hinges, handles, and levers are designed to work very simply, while being very complex, although the average individual would never realize it.
post #16 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

You pick up the average netbook at BestBuy and you're likely to think "yeah, it's about all I can afford, I guess."

You pick up an 11" Air and you're likely to think "I wonder if I can scrape up a little more money so I can get this?"

The combination of size, weight, solidity, full size keyboard, excellent screen and OS X is just very compelling. I have no earthly use for one and I have to talk myself down every time I pick one up. Typically for Apple, a lot of little things go into a highly desirable whole.

For instance, i think I remember some people claiming that the Apple videos showing the 11" being flipped open with one hand were misleading, because the thing was so light you had to hold it down to get the screen up. But every one I've played with gets that exactly right, where it's almost effortless to lift the screen, but it stays exactly where you put it. Don't know if wear and tear will take a toll on this, but if it's designed like my MacBook Pro it seems to hold up pretty well. I think Apple may be the only CE company out there that would be willing to spend (what I would imagine to be) a great deal of time and effort to make sure something like lifting and orienting the screen is excellent.

Great observations. It's the attention to detail that sets Apple apart. Despite the fact that this drives some folks up the wall, and the fact that Apple doesn't always get it 100% right (but then, who does?), the knowledge that the company goes the extra design mile on behalf of the consumer is finally paying off.

Things sometimes take time to catch up, but they inevitably do.
post #17 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by justfine View Post


I think the AAPL haters just need to adhere to DADT. What do you guys say to that?

Someone doesn't get to nearly 20,000 posts on this forum by being an "AAPL hater".

Stick around a little while, go with the flow, and you'll catch the drift.
post #18 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Dont tell me you think Elvis is alive.

Of course he is. But he doesn't work in a 7-11 in Tenn. He does exhaust work in a small town in the northwest. Actually I think he's retired now. Used to drive around in a cool old chevy. I saw him often in the hardware store and the like. Always paid with cash. I haven't seen him in a number of years but never count Elvis out.

Apple is going to do exceedingly well this holiday. The phone/pad/touch trifecta would be enough but they have the halo effect for the Mac line and apple just made that decision even easier for people with the new MBA. An online software store coming soon. Oprah likes Apple, the Beatles like Apple(even though the good ones are dead).
I know, captain obvious.
post #19 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Someone doesn't get to nearly 20,000 posts on this forum by being an "AAPL hater".

Stick around a little while, go with the flow, and you'll catch the drift.

In defense of Justfine, it's not too difficult a mistake to make for the same reason Sol posted in the first place. Definatly ironic.
post #20 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

I don't see the MBA being the reason for a monster holiday season for Apple. I still believe even with the rumors of a new iPad coming that the iPad will be the big winner.

The MBA is cool but really for a little bit more going with a MBP 13" is reallyt the way I think most people are going to go unless they just simply want a machine that thin and small.

When I go into my local Apple Store I just don't see that much interest in the MBA compared to other Apple products. I think this year its going to be the typical Macbooks, iPod Touch and add in the iPad as the big winners for the holiday season.

But I do think the MBA is really cool.

You may be right, but I've been really struck by all the positive responses around the web from folks once they'd held one in their hands.

The actual announcement got the usual range of responses, but the 11" in particular seems to have some mysterious power to cloud men's minds. I've lost count of the number of posts I've seen on various forums wherein the skeptical go to check one out and almost shamefacedly emerge with an Air under their arm.

There's just something really dead sexy about the combination of super rigid, solid feeling unibody design, feather weight, great screen, good keyboard and OS X. $999 starting price doesn't hurt, either-- it's just low enough to keep folks from walking away with disgust at the "Apple tax."

I just have a feeling, anecdotally based as it may be, that the Air is going to have massive holiday sales. It's the new MacBook, for all intents and purposes, the cheap Mac notebook-- but instead of feeling like you're "settling" for the cheap Mac, it feels like totally top drawer all the way.
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post #21 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

The mysterious power is it doesn't feel like you are working on an 11" screen. I was playing around with one the other day and I honestly forgot I was on the 11" and thought at one point I was still using the 13 inch. Its really odd, because I can not use a netbook at all because I feel like its just too small to the point of annoying. Yet when I use the 11" MBA it feels comfortable.

I agree. I went to the Apple Store this morning to check out the Macbook Airs and sweet mother of Apple! It feels solid and really light. The keyboard doesn't feel cramped like other netbooks that I used in the past and it's very responsive. But I fell in love with the 13-inch Macbook Air. The size of it suits me more.
post #22 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

The MBA is cool but really for a little bit more going with a MBP 13" is reallyt the way I think most people are going to go unless they just simply want a machine that thin and small.

Im with addabox, Im seeing a lot more demand for the new MBA that I would have thought for an ultralight notebook. I can see a lot of students wanting this for its portability. Youre obviously right that you get a lot more bang for your buck with the other Mac notebooks but Id wager that they have a lot more performance than most will need. The only caveat at this point may be the drive space, but I checked with several non-techy people I know (friends and family) and theyre all using under 25GB. Only the technical people I know that use torrents and newsgroup use more space than that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

The mysterious power is it doesn't feel like you are working on an 11" screen. I was playing around with one the other day and I honestly forgot I was on the 11" and thought at one point I was still using the 13 inch. Its really odd, because I can not use a netbook at all because I feel like its just too small to the point of annoying. Yet when I use the 11" MBA it feels comfortable.

I hadnt thought about it until you mentioned it, but both times I looked at the 11 MBA I took a double take to make sure it wasnt the 13 model.

Id rather have either MBA than my iPad, but since my 13 MBP is my primary device there is little need at this point. Maybe if I upgrade to a desktop a MBA would fit my travel needs.


Quote:
Originally Posted by mgl323 View Post

The keyboard doesn't feel cramped like other netbooks that I used in the past...

Thats one of the qualifiers that makes it impossible for me to call the MBAs netbooks. Meaning, having a full-sized keyboard means that you can type all day without issue.
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post #23 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Youre obviously right that you get a lot more bang for your buck with the other Mac notebooks but Id wager that they have a lot more performance than most will need. The only caveat at this point may be the drive space, but I checked with several non-techy people I know (friends and family) and theyre all using under 25GB. Only the technical people I know that use torrents and newsgroup use more space than that.

Yeah, exactly that-- I think we're to the point with excess computing capacity that for the vast majority of people there is no compromise whatseover in terms of power. And as the benchmarks have shown, the SSD goes a long way towards making up for whatever the CPU lacks.

So really it's all about storage space-- and even for those with a need for more room, keeping stuff on a dirt cheap external drive and OS, apps and working files on the machine is a perfectly functional solution. Not to mention a pretty good practice just in general.
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post #24 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post

What happened to the recession?

Short memories. We're all getting old.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #25 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

So really it's all about storage space-- and even for those with a need for more room, keeping stuff on a dirt cheap external drive and OS, apps and working files on the machine is a perfectly functional solution. Not to mention a pretty good practice just in general.

I absolutely love my dual drive setup in my MBP. Boot from SSD and store data on the HDD. I really hope Apple offers this when they remove the ODDs from their other notebooks, but I have a feeling they won’t.
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post #26 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I absolutely love my dual drive setup in my MBP. Boot from SSD and store data on the HDD. I really hope Apple offers this when they remove the ODDs from their other notebooks, but I have a feeling they wont.

I imagine that by that point the base model will be 128GB, with 256GB and 512GB as available upgrades (although I reckon the 512GB will still be a fairly pricy option).

At some point it really doesn't make sense to keep putting larger and larger drives in the machine you carry around. It's not that operating systems and apps are getting that much larger, it's that people are continuously adding to their legacy files. For that it just makes sense to start offloading things onto external drives for backup and archival storage.
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post #27 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post

What happened to the recession?

What recession? Those Apple 5% market share buyers have to check Wiki on "recession"
post #28 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I wonder how those MacBook Airs will sell when they are just really slow netbooks for 3x the price, according to some.

See
http://www.pcworld.com/article/21084...html?&tk=hp_fv
post #29 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by clochard42 View Post

Slow!?
See
http://www.pcworld.com/article/21084...html?&tk=hp_fv

I can understand some people not getting the sarcasm of my original post, but after I added the emoticon that is holding a sign labeled SARCASM that you would have removed from the quoted text to create this post Im truly baffled.
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post #30 of 56
with that price, you can get really good gaming laptop with high quality. I have searched for new laptop recently. then I got a lot of information. $999 for this piece of shit? to me, it's totally useless. if you just like design, quality stuff, not care about performance, go get it. trust me, you will feel something really missed. I suggest you better buy ipad. it's much better, and cheaper.
post #31 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I can understand some people not getting the sarcasm of my original post, but after I added the emoticon that is holding a sign labeled SARCASM that you would have removed from the quoted text to create this post Im truly baffled.

Maybe you need to put in animated flashing lights and a big blinking arrow. And the definition of "sarcasm."
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post #32 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by edwardryu View Post

with that price, you can get really good gaming laptop with high quality. I have searched for new laptop recently. then I got a lot of information. $999 for this piece of shit? to me, it's totally useless.

Not everyone want to play serious game on notebook especially one as light as MBA.
post #33 of 56
Quote:

If you want a good ultraportable (workstation) notebook then buy Sony z13. True, 50% more expensive but way way way better.
Imagine an MBP in ultraportable size&weight with better screen.
post #34 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by edwardryu View Post

with that price, you can get really good gaming laptop with high quality. I have searched for new laptop recently. then I got a lot of information. $999 for this piece of shit? to me, it's totally useless. if you just like design, quality stuff, not care about performance, go get it. trust me, you will feel something really missed. I suggest you better buy ipad. it's much better, and cheaper.

Most gamers go for desktop and replace the graphic card with an high end one. Laptop's are not gaming friendly, most of the I7 windows laptop have crappy graphic cards in terms of gaming. The air is not for serious gamers, but the Nvidia 320m is decent for old games and many current ones.

The MBA also has advantage over an ipad because its a full OS-X mac that support flash and allows the installation of OS-X apps. Its a great choice if you want lightweight combine with full feature PC, but for twice the price of an ipad.

Even iMacs are not consider good gaming machine because of the amount of new games running on Mac OS-X and graphic card choice. But if you really like Macs (like me), the solution is buy an windows 7 oem for 100$ and activate bootcamp. My i7 iMac with a radeon 4850 is pretty good at running pretty much everything I throw at it: native mac OS games or windows 7 ones.
post #35 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Yeah, exactly that-- I think we're to the point with excess computing capacity that for the vast majority of people there is no compromise whatseover in terms of power. And as the benchmarks have shown, the SSD goes a long way towards making up for whatever the CPU lacks.

So really it's all about storage space-- and even for those with a need for more room, keeping stuff on a dirt cheap external drive and OS, apps and working files on the machine is a perfectly functional solution. Not to mention a pretty good practice just in general.

What makes the most sense is combining the Air with a desktop that allows for lots of storage and horsepower at reasonable prices.

As you long as you can live with a desktop for heavy lifting, in terms of cost, rather than max out an Air, I would look at a basic Air combined with a Mac mini, especially if one already has a decent monitor. The Canadian pricing for a fully optioned 13" Air is $1,928 for a 2.13 Ghz processor, 4GB of RAM, 256GB of flash memory and an external hard drive. In comparison, the basic Air which is fine for a lot of less demanding activities lists for $1,049. Add in a Mac Mini and you are adding a cost of $859 for the configuration with 320GB of memory, 4GB of RAM, and a 2.4Ghz processor. Add in a keyboard and magic trackpad to up that to $997. So not factoring in the monitor, that's a total MSRP of $2,046. We're talking $118 more for more power while still having a portable unit that is easy to use. Yes the cost goes up once you factor in a monitor but a good monitor lasts much longer than any computer attached to it. A typical LCD is apparently good for about 14 years.

I realize this doesn't work for everybody. For me, though, it makes sense, especially since I already have a Mini and a Cinema display and assorted peripherals. I have my desktop and next revision, I intend to invest in a portable companion device, be it a second-gen iPad or the next Air revision (so I can have 128GB and a little more horsepower for the entry-level price).

One cautionary note, however. As an Apple investor I anticipate some excess in terms of stock price, though I also think Apple is a fine long-term investment. The company is well positioned with room for still more growth. Jobs has helped transform Apple into a multi-faceted behemoth managing to make a profit out of just about everything it touches. We're talking real earnings and a brand that is highly regarded by an important young demographic. It would take years, even if Jobs stepped down, for Apple to lose momentum.

I have lost count of how often I have been advised to get out of Apple since climbing on board in 2003. The sell-Apple advice has been a constant. Maybe I'll stay in too long but my gut is telling me it's not time to bail yet. Maybe I'll hedge my bets and move some of it (not that I have a lot of shares). Maybe I'll just sit tight and continue to enjoy the ride. It's hard to turn away from such a successful company with a ground-breaking product in its infancy. If Apple collapsed it would be a very bleak day for me and, I suspect, countless others. At this time, though, who among us could have said we saw it coming.
post #36 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I wonder how those MacBook Airs will sell when they are just really slow “netbooks” for 3x the price, according to some.

Not "slow netbooks" , just netbooks.
Or more truly- a notebook. A high powered, 11" form factored device is a notebook no matter how you'd like to distort the reality.

I'm wondering how the truly innovative Kinect will do this holiday season compared to the iPad?
post #37 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I absolutely love my dual drive setup in my MBP. Boot from SSD and store data on the HDD. I really hope Apple offers this when they remove the ODDs from their other notebooks, but I have a feeling they wont.

I have a feeling that Lion will support this type of setup natively.
When you create a new user account, it will also ask you which drive you want it on.
The 27" iMac already has the option for an SSD and a traditional hard drive.
The new SSDs apple is using in the MBA is extremely small and should find it's way into the MBPs.
post #38 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post

What happened to the recession?

There's no recession for the upper half of the income distribution. The rich are earning more than ever, and companies are reporting record breaking profits.
post #39 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by nicolbolas View Post

well, this shows that its faster, but this is access times, when you try running something CPU or GPU intensive, show me the benchmarks.

Depending upon the users software this can be significant or not. However for the most part such figures are useless for most computer users in general and maybe even more so for AIR users. In the end it is just a way to make a product look good relative to another even if the info is useless to most users. Sort of like skid pad tests for automobiles.
Quote:
that being said, a lot of people wouldn't need this speed.

Exactly! It is a distraction more than anything because most users need strong CPU performance to run their favored software well.
Quote:
also, i believe a test was with flash, vs. w/ out flash, but no other add ons, i would say these tests aren't that great...

Useless is the word in my estimation. I'd be more concerned about the performance of Safari and other apps commony used by compact laptop owners. Especially with respect to user responsiveness and interpeter performance.

The new AIRs have many nice features and improvements over the old ones. These are what should be focused on when comparing machines.
post #40 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

You may be right, but I've been really struck by all the positive responses around the web from folks once they'd held one in their hands.

Word of mouth sells more product than just about anything.
Quote:
The actual announcement got the usual range of responses, but the 11" in particular seems to have some mysterious power to cloud men's minds. I've lost count of the number of posts I've seen on various forums wherein the skeptical go to check one out and almost shamefacedly emerge with an Air under their arm.

I avoid this problem by not even walking into the mall where the local Apple store is located. No really the best way to keep the cash in the wallet is to avoid walking into the Apple store.
Quote:
There's just something really dead sexy about the combination of super rigid, solid feeling unibody design, feather weight, great screen, good keyboard and OS X. $999 starting price doesn't hurt, either-- it's just low enough to keep folks from walking away with disgust at the "Apple tax."

The Apple tax has never been as bad as some have implied. With respect to AIR how many machines are on the market that are reasonably comparable? Not many from what I can gather. The $999 starting price is of course a factor, price is almost always a factor, but the AIR is very good value for the money. This value for the money math is what will likely drive a lot of sales.
Quote:
I just have a feeling, anecdotally based as it may be, that the Air is going to have massive holiday sales. It's the new MacBook, for all intents and purposes, the cheap Mac notebook-- but instead of feeling like you're "settling" for the cheap Mac, it feels like totally top drawer all the way.

Well I'm not going to guess on sales mainly because I haven't personally talked to a lot of new AIR owners.

As to the MacBook I suspect you are wrong in one sense. I don't see AIR replacing the MacBook. Rather I see a new MacBook coming at a very aggressive price point. This item will come out as soon as the SoC suitable for it are on the market. I see a 6-700 dollar MacBook in the near future.

You see even at $1000 the AIRs really are expensive for many potential Apple customers. AIR dies have that ability to move people to spend more than they want but there is a huge segment of the market that rejects high prices even though they want a Mac deep down. The only trick Apple gas to accomplish is to keep quality high in the low cost machine.

Such a MacBook will do a couple of things for Apple, one is increase sales dramatically. The other is to put a lot of pressure on the cheapy laptop makers while still being very profitable for Apple.
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