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Tablets like Apple's iPad expected to 'displace' 10% of PCs in 2014

post #1 of 51
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Tablets and smartphones will significantly affect PC sales in the years to come, with touchscreen devices like Apple's iPad representing 10 percent of PC sales by 2014, according to a new forecast.

Gartner on Monday released its latest forecast update for PC sales. The firm expects a total of 352.4 million computers to be shipped by the end of 2010, which would be a 14.3 percent increase from last year, but is also less than Gartner's previous forecast in September of 17.9 percent growth.

Accordingly, the firm also reduced its projections for PC shipments in 2011. Gartner now believes that worldwide PC shipments will reach 409 million units next year, a 15.9 percent increase from 2010. That's less than its earlier estimate of 18.1 percent growth.

Gartner believes devices like Apple's iPad are "disruptive" to sales of traditional PCs. Released in April, the iPad is already outselling the Mac.

"These results reflect marked reductions in expected near-term unit growth based on expectations of weaker consumer demand, due in no small part to growing user interest in media tablets such as the iPad," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. "Over the longer term, media tablets are expected to displace around 10 percent of PC units by 2014."

Gartner's analysts believe that more portable devices will eat away at sales of more traditional desktop and laptop computers in the future.

"PCs are still seen as necessities, but the PC industry's inability to significantly innovate and its overreliance on a business model predicated on driving volume through price declines are finally impacting the industry's ability to induce new replacement cycles," said George Shiffler, research director at Gartner.

"As the PC market slows, vendors that differentiate themselves through services and technology innovation rather than unit volume and price will dictate the future. Even then, leading vendors will be challenged to keep PCs from losing the device 'limelight' to more innovative products that offer better dedicated compute capabilities."

The analysis is similar to comments made earlier this year by Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs, who said he believes that devices like the iPad are representative of a forthcoming post-PC era. He compared the growth of tablets to the migration of the U.S. automobile industry from trucks to cars.

Jobs said that trucks were originally a necessity because they were driven by farmers. But as cities grew and features like power steering and automatic transition were added to cars, they became the more popular option.

"PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said noting they will still be around, but they will represent a smaller number of sales.
post #2 of 51
This is why Apple is the most sued company in the world. The rest of the industry is watching Apple pull too far ahead for their liking in this new mobile market.
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
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post #3 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Tablets and smartphones will significantly affect PC sales in the years to come, with touchscreen devices like Apple's iPad representing 10 percent of PC sales by 2014, according to a new forecast.



Holy Moley! If this is true, Apple will lose about one and one-half MILLION Mac sales to the lower-priced iPad. So what is the average selling price of a Mac? $1800 or so?

If so, that is nearly THREE BILLION DOLLARS in Mac revenue.

Is the iPad a Golem?
post #4 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by 蘋果蘋果蘋果 View Post

?

So let's see how high your post count gets before you get banned again.

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post #5 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by 蘋果蘋果蘋果 View Post

Holy Moley! If this is true, Apple will lose about one and one-half MILLION Mac sales to the lower-priced iPad. So what is the average selling price of a Mac? $1800 or so?

If so, that is nearly THREE BILLION DOLLARS in Mac revenue.

Is the iPad a Golem?

Except that regular PC sales are going to be effected, not Macs... as we have seen in the last few years.
So Apple gets another 9% of the computer pie (90% of the expected 10% overall) and even more of the profits.
WOW!
post #6 of 51
Jobs is right. People who don't need the robust utilitarian features of a PC will lean towards buying tablets instead, just like the people who didn't need the robustness of a laptop ended up buying netbooks.

As more alternatives become available, PC sales will be affected. Hopefully this will mean we'll see some great stuff in the PC market in order to keep up.
post #7 of 51
I predict that Apple will still outpace the industry and will appear unfazed by any tablet displacement. In fact, I expect their desktop sale to pick up pass due to the emergence of viable tablet, satellite computers.
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post #8 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

Hopefully this will mean we'll see some great stuff in the PC market in order to keep up.


If the Mac App Store really takes off, we might see some quality software titles for a fair price.
It would be sweet to be able to have unlimited free upgrades for CS.

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post #9 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post

Except that regular PC sales are going to be effected, not Macs... as we have seen in the last few years.
So Apple gets another 9% of the computer pie (90% of the expected 10% overall) and even more of the profits.
WOW!

Time will tell. I don't think these cheap tablet options have been around long enough to come to a conclusion about the impact on Mac sales.
post #10 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

This is why Apple is the most sued company in the world. The rest of the industry is watching Apple pull too far ahead for their liking in this new mobile market.

Agreed!
post #11 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

If the Mac App Store really takes off, we might see some quality software titles for a fair price.
It would be sweet to be able to have unlimited free upgrades for CS.

It will do well. Steam does the same thing with games, and it appears as though it's worked out great for Valve. In fact, it's been quite a while since I bought a game from someplace else.
post #12 of 51
2014?

That's unpredictable. Any person who says this cannot claim to be an analyst.
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #13 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

If the Mac App Store really takes off, we might see some quality software titles for a fair price.
It would be sweet to be able to have unlimited free upgrades for CS.

I doubt that software of the complexity of CS will be offered in the App Store. It seems as though that will be mostly for consumer grade items, utilities, and other simpler bits.
post #14 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I doubt that software of the complexity of CS will be offered in the App Store. It seems as though that will be mostly for consumer grade items, utilities, and other simpler bits.

I have no idea what will happen but if apps like Pixelmator, Opacity, & Coda get more recognition as a result of being on the app store it may force Adobe's hand. Right now you kind of have to be an insider to know about those products. With Apple's marketing machine behind them, a lot of small developers could do really well. I would love to see CS broken up into the individual apps again.

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post #15 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by 蘋果蘋果蘋果 View Post

... Is the iPad a Golem?

Since this makes no sense ... I'm guessing you're knowledge of the Golem comes either from watching the Simpsons, or The Lord of the Rings.
post #16 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

Jobs is right. People who don't need the robust utilitarian features of a PC will lean towards buying tablets instead, just like the people who didn't need the robustness of a laptop ended up buying netbooks.

As more alternatives become available, PC sales will be affected. Hopefully this will mean we'll see some great stuff in the PC market in order to keep up.


Right! Job's said they were like "trucks." And with all the improvements Apple is making in the mobile arena, PC's look more and more like "trucks!" (Apple makes the "prettiest" truck, though!)

I think the jury is in, most Windows Netbooks are junky.


I prefer to be more mobile and am willing to give up some computing pwr and screen real estate you get from a desktop.

An iPhone 4, a 2nd gen. iPad 3Gs and I would be quite happy. Who wants to sit in front of a computer all day? Ugggh!

And when my original intel iMac finally falters, I will replace it with an 11" MBA.

The 11" MBA will be better suited for my RV than the big desktop-(when my GF kicks me out.) Plus they will all fit in my one suitcase with rest of my "belongings!" My tech stuff, not my GF!

Chicks, man! Whatever you do, don't look at them the wrong way! Whew!

Best
post #17 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

So let's see how high your post count gets before you get banned again.

My thoughts exactly. Every time I report one of his incarnations he gets banned pretty quickly; can't tell if the mods are basing it off IP address or actual content. If it's IP a simple report should nip it in the bud, if it's content I guess we'll have to wait for him to build up his usual record of crap.
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post #18 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

If the Mac App Store really takes off, we might see some quality software titles for a fair price.
It would be sweet to be able to have unlimited free upgrades for CS.

1) Adobe will likely be the *last* company to join the app store
2) They won't offer the CS suite but individual apps if they do join the app store
3) No one ever said upgrades would be free for life, even in the iOS app store

Right now there are two or three rules to being in the Mac App store that leave out almost all decent software. Particularly of note is the fact that software with serial numbers or activation schemes is disallowed, and software that uses a non-standard installer is disallowed. So unless the rules change, Adobe is already out of the game.

I predict that by the time they realise they are in trouble and want to join the store, it will already be too late. The whole world is moving to small specialised apps. It's happening on the desktop, it's happening even faster in the new mobile platforms. The days of gigantic suites are already over whether Adobe and Microsoft realise it or not.
post #19 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

2014?

That's unpredictable. Any person who says this cannot claim to be an analyst.

That's probably why they used the word forecast instead of the word predict. They are similar but forecast to me indicates less certainty. Weatherpeople also forecast as opposed to predict.
post #20 of 51
Here's an interesting quote:

The iPad: The Mac of the Masses

http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/2...of-the-masses/
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post #21 of 51
I think the estimate of 10% is far too conservative. For one thing, iPads in 2014 will be far more powerful and mature than they are today.

Also, there's another way of looking at this. Because iPads can be deployed more cheaply than PCs, they will be used for tasks that PCs are impractical for. (For instance, the clipboard and pad doctors and nurses traditionally carry around with them in hospitals will be entirely replaced with iPads. In fact, many clipboards will be replaced with iPads.) What that means is, the overall PC/iPad market will grow. But since that growth will be entirely due to the iPad, they will take up far more than 10% of that market IF you measure the two markets as one. The iPad IS basically a computer/PC, after all.

Anyway, no matter how you slice it, 10% is probably way low.
post #22 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

1) Adobe will likely be the *last* company to join the app store
2) They won't offer the CS suite but individual apps if they do join the app store
3) No one ever said upgrades would be free for life, even in the iOS app store

Right now there are two or three rules to being in the Mac App store that leave out almost all decent software. Particularly of note is the fact that software with serial numbers or activation schemes is disallowed, and software that uses a non-standard installer is disallowed. So unless the rules change, Adobe is already out of the game.

I predict that by the time they realise they are in trouble and want to join the store, it will already be too late. The whole world is moving to small specialised apps. It's happening on the desktop, it's happening even faster in the new mobile platforms. The days of gigantic suites are already over whether Adobe and Microsoft realise it or not.

Better than most, Adobe has several apps in the iOS app store...
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post #23 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

1) Adobe will likely be the *last* company to join the app store
2) They won't offer the CS suite but individual apps if they do join the app store
3) No one ever said upgrades would be free for life, even in the iOS app store

Right now there are two or three rules to being in the Mac App store that leave out almost all decent software. Particularly of note is the fact that software with serial numbers or activation schemes is disallowed, and software that uses a non-standard installer is disallowed. So unless the rules change, Adobe is already out of the game.

I predict that by the time they realise they are in trouble and want to join the store, it will already be too late. The whole world is moving to small specialised apps. It's happening on the desktop, it's happening even faster in the new mobile platforms. The days of gigantic suites are already over whether Adobe and Microsoft realise it or not.

I think you're onto something there...I know it's anecdotal, but I used to rely on Adobe Acrobat Professional. Way more powerful than I needed and expensive, too. Now I rely on PDFShrink and PDFPen...and they both do exactly what I want when it comes to PDF management.

I will never buy an MS product and will never buy an Adobe product either...even though Adobe created the PDF format.

Best
post #24 of 51
The company slated to lose the most from this is MS. No matter what happens if tablets become a major component of PC sales, they will lose big. This will happen for several reasons.

Like netbooks, tablets won't carry a high paying version of Windows. Even if somehow MS manages to capture say, 25% of the "real" tablet market, that is, not the convertible notebook market that was previously thought of as the tablet market (and which is doing very poorly), they will not come close to the monopoly percentages they have for Windows.

This means that they won't be licensing an expensive OS to most of these devices, leading to a significant shrinkage to their margins and profits in that area (which is why MS hasn't been thrilled about netbook sales). Of course, it's likely they won't even come close to 25%, as both Android and iOS devices will dominate. That makes the situation even more of a problem for them. If we see tablets cutting into PC sales to the point where those sales begin to actually shrink, then they will suffer even more.

I believe that for several more years, PC sales will grow because of third world purchases, being that they are computer deprived. But at some point, that need will be filled. As in parts of the world where they have poor telecommunications infrastructure, they will largely skip the traditional purchasing habits, and move to the next generation devices. That follows Eastern Europe, Africa, parts of Asia, and elsewhere skipping modern landline phone technology and going directly to cell service. We'll see that with tablets as well, especially if Apple and others allow them to operate without need of pc's for backup, OS updates, etc.

This just continues to make it worse for MS as opposed to Apple (who I'm obviously concentrating on here), because MS is mostly dependent on highly overpriced software for the its very high GM and profits, as are most software companies. Their 78% GM would be even higher if not for the vast losses in other areas. Adobe's GM was north of 90% last I looked.

A reason why it will fall more, along with a shrinkage in actual dollar sales is because of the nature of tablets, Windows and otherwise. While Apple sells software in order to make its hardware offerings more attractive, MS sells software in order to make sales and profits. Therefore, Apple often prices its software cheaply enough for people to think of it as an easy purchase, and almost as an accessary to their hardware purchase.

MS prices its software so that they can make as much profit off their sales as possible.

So what happens to MS's other monopoly franchise? I'm of course talking about Office. Office is an even more secure monopoly than is Windows, because it sells well to Mac users too. It's got about 95% of the office suite market, more than Windows itself presently.

But Office won't work well on a 9" 1024 x600 screen. It won't work well with the semi touch activated UI MS uses in Win 7. So what happens? Apple took iWork and broke it up into pieces that only cost $9.95 apiece, and that have been extensively reworked for the touch UI. Can, and even more importantly, WILL MS do that for Office? If they don't, they lose Office sales completely. If they do, they end up with a completely different product. If they try to price it at the old levels, for either Office Pro, or Student/Teacher, they will lose significant sales.

And then there is the question being already asked. Will MS come out with a version for the iPad? To do so will help to further erode their Windows monopoly, as it will make people and business more comfortable with these new Apple products as Office already does for the Mac. If they don't, they risk the loss of their Office monopoly, and major sales and profits.

And while so far I haven't seem anything written about it, will MS do this for Android? The same questions work here as well.

It seems to me that in a few years, unless something happens that are unexpected, we will see a shrunken, and less profitable MS from what we will see a couple of years from today, once this kicks in.
post #25 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

I have no idea what will happen but if apps like Pixelmator, Opacity, & Coda get more recognition as a result of being on the app store it may force Adobe's hand. Right now you kind of have to be an insider to know about those products. With Apple's marketing machine behind them, a lot of small developers could do really well. I would love to see CS broken up into the individual apps again.

I've only bought Cs since it came out, but I was under the impression that you could still buy the individual programs. You can still buy upgrades for them.
post #26 of 51
.

Ya' know you you can set up that iMac in the family room with multiple users -- we have 6.

Ya' know how there is usually some contention as to who gets to use the computer, and when.

Ya' know how each user has his own User Name/Password and /home folder hierarchy

Ya' know how all users share common apps, widgets, and OS features.

Ya' know how each family member (especially the kids) wants their own computer, TV, Movie player.

...


What if Apple could jigger (CPU Cores, GPUs, RAM, Storage) on the next family iMac (or somesuch), the AirPort router, and Mac OS X so that:

-- it could handle multiple concurrent users logged and running -- each with his own /Home.
-- instead of using the iMac screen, each user could log in (and remain instant-on connected) through his iPad.
-- Some iPad stuff: email, surf, etc. (all the things that the iPad does now) would bypass the Family iMac and directly access the Internet through the WiFi router.
-- Other stuff, Photoshop, FCS Final Cut, other Mac /Applications and /Home files would be accessed by the iPad acting as a window into the Family iMac -- through a streaming/screen sharing app.

So, it'd work like this;

-- You pick up an iPad (from a stack on the table) or use your personal iPad.
-- after identifying yourself (for a iPad from the stack) your Most-Recently-used iPad-specific stuff is cross-loaded from the Family iMac.
-- you do your IPad stuff, run some iPad apps
-- when ever you wish you run special iPad apps that use the Family iMac resources for heavy lifting.
-- it's seamless - you don't really care where the magic is being performed!


BTW, you can get at your stuff with an iPad from anywhere -- through WiFi or Cell radio


That's what I'd like to see!
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post #27 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

.

Ya' know you you can set up that iMac in the family room with multiple users -- we have 6.

Ya' know how there is usually some contention as to who gets to use the computer, and when.

Ya' know how each user has his own User Name/Password and /home folder hierarchy

Ya' know how all users share common apps, widgets, and OS features.

Ya' know how each family member (especially the kids) wants their own computer, TV, Movie player.

...


What if Apple could jigger (CPU Cores, GPUs, RAM, Storage) on the next family iMac (or somesuch), the AirPort router, and Mac OS X so that:

-- it could handle multiple concurrent users logged and running -- each with his own /Home.
-- instead of using the iMac screen, each user could log in (and remain instant-on connected) through his iPad.
-- Some iPad stuff: email, surf, etc. (all the things that the iPad does now) would bypass the Family iMac and directly access the Internet through the WiFi router.
-- Other stuff, Photoshop, FCS Final Cut, other Mac /Applications and /Home files would be accessed by the iPad acting as a window into the Family iMac -- through a streaming/screen sharing app.

So, it'd work like this;

-- You pick up an iPad (from a stack on the table) or use your personal iPad.
-- after identifying yourself (for a iPad from the stack) your Most-Recently-used iPad-specific stuff is cross-loaded from the Family iMac.
-- you do your IPad stuff, run some iPad apps
-- when ever you wish you run special iPad apps that use the Family iMac resources for heavy lifting.
-- it's seamless - you don't really care where the magic is being performed!


BTW, you can get at your stuff with an iPad from anywhere -- through WiFi or Cell radio


That's what I'd like to see!

It could be done. We'd be going back to the old idea of thin clients, almost back to the ancient days of terminals and mainframe. But Apple would need to totally regigger their OS and hardware. What you're asking for is a mainframe concept, or at least a minicomputer model. PC's aren't designed for simultaneous access.
post #28 of 51
For one MS Windows has become a rotting heap O' crap with all the viruses, malware and spyware some of which is enabled by MS design decisions.

The second issue is where is the innovation coming from in the PC industry? It certainly isn't the Windows machines. It is very interesting that Apple sales are actually up when looking at the Mac Line up as a whole. This tends to indicate that many people are coming to Apple from the Windows or Linux worlds. The obvious question is why and honestly I think it comes down to Apple hardware having a better reputation with respect to reliability and resistance to viruses and malware.

As to displacing 10% of PC sales that is debatable and frankly I don't have enough info to say one way or the other. However brisk sales of Apples new AIRs indicates that many people still want that keyboard, the just want it on a small portable that is reasonably fast. The big problem with many ATOM based netbooks and low end laptops is the lack of real CPU horsepower. Marginal performance coupled with bloated windows results in sluggish performance and a poor suer experience. Much of the lost sales projected could be recovered if the manufactures had more respectable offerings. It is pretty simple, if people start rejecting your crap hardware and you respond with more crap hardware then they will start to look elsewhere. Right now Dell has big problems because of this. Produce a line up that makes sense but doesn't compromise and the market is yours. It all boils down to the idea that the market isn't completely going away, rather it is simply transferring to different players.
post #29 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

It could be done. We'd be going back to the old idea of thin clients, almost back to the ancient days of terminals and mainframe. But Apple would need to totally regigger their OS and hardware. What you're asking for is a mainframe concept, or at least a minicomputer model. PC's aren't designed for simultaneous access.

The reason I say that is because the underlying OS is UNIX. This actually brings up an interesting question about Mac OS, can one telnet or secure shell log into a Mac in its base configuration. I never tried so I don't know but even if the base install doesn't support it the feature could be added or better yet the Apple could just merge in the server version with the desktop version of Mac OS.

Running a graphical app would require more work from what I can see. In the end though I think the better approach would be to run native iOS apps and then use the Mac as a server. I'm fully expecting the next version of ipad to be able to better support a wide array of software that the current iPad has trouble with. At this point why bother with the Mini computer approach of the past, the Mac would make a perfectly good local server. It looks very much like the goal is to support this use case as that is pretty much what AIR Print does. AIR Print (when it gets here) and some of Apples other initiatives pretty much indicate where Apple is going with the tech. They just need to get the software and hardware in place.
post #30 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

It could be done. We'd be going back to the old idea of thin clients, almost back to the ancient days of terminals and mainframe. But Apple would need to totally regigger their OS and hardware. What you're asking for is a mainframe concept, or at least a minicomputer model. PC's aren't designed for simultaneous access.

Yes... almost a thin client... but not quite. The iPad would be more of a plump client... Nah! that's not it. I've referred to it as an "agile client"... but that's not right either.


The iPad is a standalone [almost] device.

What if you consider the Family Mac as a "Power dongle" to one or more iPads.


By "Power dongle" I mean additional compute power, ability to run Power applications, store content, stream, backup, sync, cross-load when necessary.

In fact, the "Power dongle" can be 0 or more home boxes as well as a Cloud "Power dongle".

Most families would have an iMac as the "Power dongle" -- or a headless Mini.

Prosumers may use a MacPro or an iMac with multiple Displays as a "Power dongle".

Pros would use networked Macs, whatever models/configurations required, as a "Power dongle".

Grandma and Grandpa would use a new MobileMe as their "Power dongle".


Apple, already has software that distributes workload among multiple machines, and software that does fast user switching, virtualization, etc. With proper hardware, how difficult would it be to re-jigger Mac OS X Server to run 1 app-at-a-time for, say, 10 concurrent users.

-- Braden is working on his Pages or Word English paper
-- Standish is watching King Kong streamed from the media collection or playing the latest iPad game
-- Marlowe is using iMovie, PhotoBooth, iPhoto, etc. to create a clip for youtube
-- Mom is playing a few online games, while alternating among the family budget, surfing, shopping, and all the things moms do (including that recipe that she has on her iPad to take into the kitchen)
-- Grandpa periodically switches back and forth among XCode, FCP, Motion, QC... as well as posting to AI

What would it take to do that, concurrently, with 5 iPads and a shared "Power dongle"?

.
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post #31 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I've only bought Cs since it came out, but I was under the impression that you could still buy the individual programs. You can still buy upgrades for them.

You can but it is all messed up from an upgrade standpoint. Once we went to CS by way of upgrading PS it all went down hill. Now going back to single apps is too expensive. I wish I had held out but they made it almost impossible when they changed the upgrade requirements to be only 2 versions old. I really hate the bundle concept for many reasons but one of the worst reasons is that not every application in the suite needs to be upgraded at the same time.

One of the requirements, I believe, in the iOS app store is that you can't charge for upgrades. You have to remove the app and then offer a new one, which would cause an enormous problem for Adobe if that model was extended to the OS X app store. Especially since it abandons the user base if a security update is required they are just SOL. Their whole business model is based on milking their customers every two years for an unneeded upgrade. They do this by making file formats incompatible. I love the CS products but not even MS sticks it to their customers the way Adobe does.

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post #32 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Yes... almost a thin client... but not quite. The iPad would be more of a plump client... Nah! that's not it. I've referred to it as an "agile client"... but that's not right either.


The iPad is a standalone [almost] device.

What if you consider the Family Mac as a "Power dongle" to one or more iPads.


By "Power dongle" I mean additional compute power, ability to run Power applications, store content, stream, backup, sync, cross-load when necessary.

In fact, the "Power dongle" can be 0 or more home boxes as well as a Cloud "Power dongle".

Most families would have an iMac as the "Power dongle" -- or a headless Mini.

Prosumers may use a MacPro or an iMac with multiple Displays as a "Power dongle".

Pros would use networked Macs, whatever models/configurations required, as a "Power dongle".

Grandma and Grandpa would use a new MobileMe as their "Power dongle".


Apple, already has software that distributes workload among multiple machines, and software that does fast user switching, virtualization, etc. With proper hardware, how difficult would it be to re-jigger Mac OS X Server to run 1 app-at-a-time for, say, 10 concurrent users.

-- Braden is working on his Pages or Word English paper
-- Standish is watching King Kong streamed from the media collection or playing the latest iPad game
-- Marlowe is using iMovie, PhotoBooth, iPhoto, etc. to create a clip for youtube
-- Mom is playing a few online games, while alternating among the family budget, surfing, shopping, and all the things moms do (including that recipe that she has on her iPad to take into the kitchen)
-- Grandpa periodically switches back and forth among XCode, FCP, Motion, QC... as well as posting to AI

What would it take to do that, concurrently, with 5 iPads and a shared "Power dongle"?

.

This is not something I've thought about in detail.
post #33 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

You can but it is all messed up from an upgrade standpoint. Once we went to CS by way of upgrading PS it all went down hill. Now going back to single apps is too expensive. I wish I had held out but they made it almost impossible when they changed the upgrade requirements to be only 2 versions old. I really hate the bundle concept for many reasons but one of the worst reasons is that not every application in the suite needs to be upgraded at the same time.

One of the requirements, I believe, in the iOS app store is that you can't charge for upgrades. You have to remove the app and then offer a new one, which would cause an enormous problem for Adobe if that model was extended to the OS X app store. Especially since it abandons the user base if a security update is required they are just SOL. Their whole business model is based on milking their customers every two years for an unneeded upgrade. They do this by making file formats incompatible. I love the CS products but not even MS sticks it to their customers the way Adobe does.

Since I was using the major programs anyway, I just went for the suite. It's a bargain.

Adobe's programs are complex, and need to install more than a few things in the OS. I don't see how they could comply with the simple install supposedly required by the new App Store. I've never felt ripped off by Adobe's upgrades to this software, and eagerly await them. But then, i've always used them at a high enough level for the new features to have made sense for me. There are many people who need little of what this offers. They shouldn't be buying it anyway. For the rest of us, we never get enough. And they do have easy compatibility across versions. You can easily decide whether to save as the newest, with all the features in your file intact, or as one of several older versions will various features baked into the final file instead. It works well.
post #34 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Yes... almost a thin client... but not quite. The iPad would be more of a plump client... Nah! that's not it. I've referred to it as an "agile client"... but that's not right either.


The iPad is a standalone [almost] device.

What if you consider the Family Mac as a "Power dongle" to one or more iPads.


By "Power dongle" I mean additional compute power, ability to run Power applications, store content, stream, backup, sync, cross-load when necessary.

In fact, the "Power dongle" can be 0 or more home boxes as well as a Cloud "Power dongle".

Most families would have an iMac as the "Power dongle" -- or a headless Mini.

Prosumers may use a MacPro or an iMac with multiple Displays as a "Power dongle".

Pros would use networked Macs, whatever models/configurations required, as a "Power dongle".

Grandma and Grandpa would use a new MobileMe as their "Power dongle".


Apple, already has software that distributes workload among multiple machines, and software that does fast user switching, virtualization, etc. With proper hardware, how difficult would it be to re-jigger Mac OS X Server to run 1 app-at-a-time for, say, 10 concurrent users.

-- Braden is working on his Pages or Word English paper
-- Standish is watching King Kong streamed from the media collection or playing the latest iPad game
-- Marlowe is using iMovie, PhotoBooth, iPhoto, etc. to create a clip for youtube
-- Mom is playing a few online games, while alternating among the family budget, surfing, shopping, and all the things moms do (including that recipe that she has on her iPad to take into the kitchen)
-- Grandpa periodically switches back and forth among XCode, FCP, Motion, QC... as well as posting to AI

What would it take to do that, concurrently, with 5 iPads and a shared "Power dongle"?

.

I think your apple fantasy family is in serious need for a family night where they talk to each other. (not using avatars on their iPads using the imac as a power dongle to generate the living space.) ha
post #35 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

My thoughts exactly. Every time I report one of his incarnations he gets banned pretty quickly; can't tell if the mods are basing it off IP address or actual content. If it's IP a simple report should nip it in the bud, if it's content I guess we'll have to wait for him to build up his usual record of crap.

And.......gone.
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post #36 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

There are many people who need little of what this offers. They shouldn't be buying it anyway. For the rest of us, we never get enough. And they do have easy compatibility across versions. You can easily decide whether to save as the newest, with all the features in your file intact, or as one of several older versions will various features baked into the final file instead. It works well.

This does not describe anything close to our situation. We have several licenses of CS on PC and Mac and various tasks require or don't require all the advanced features. By and large it is a lot of open up a previous project, make some changes, save as a new version. Even though the majority of tasks only require limited feature set, ALL tasks require the CS suite since that is 'What We Use" as does everyone else in the industry. We would get along just fine until someone sends us a file we can't open, and it is NEVER because they used a new feature. It is ALWAYS because they just saved it and sent it. For some reason it is often a newbie who just got their first version of CS. With inDesign in particular you cannot save as a previous version. You can export as an interchange document which will get you back 1 version but the other person receiving the file needs to know what to do.

Please don't take offense, Mel, because we all know you are retired and we still love you, but I think you are a little out of touch with the day to day working environment of a modern advertising/publishing company.

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post #37 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

It could be done. We'd be going back to the old idea of thin clients, almost back to the ancient days of terminals and mainframe. But Apple would need to totally regigger their OS and hardware. What you're asking for is a mainframe concept, or at least a minicomputer model. PC's aren't designed for simultaneous access.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

The reason I say that is because the underlying OS is UNIX. This actually brings up an interesting question about Mac OS, can one telnet or secure shell log into a Mac in its base configuration. I never tried so I don't know but even if the base install doesn't support it the feature could be added or better yet the Apple could just merge in the server version with the desktop version of Mac OS.

Running a graphical app would require more work from what I can see. In the end though I think the better approach would be to run native iOS apps and then use the Mac as a server. I'm fully expecting the next version of ipad to be able to better support a wide array of software that the current iPad has trouble with. At this point why bother with the Mini computer approach of the past, the Mac would make a perfectly good local server. It looks very much like the goal is to support this use case as that is pretty much what AIR Print does. AIR Print (when it gets here) and some of Apples other initiatives pretty much indicate where Apple is going with the tech. They just need to get the software and hardware in place.

Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

This is not something I've thought about in detail.

Well, Think about it! I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Actually, I haven't thought about it in detail either.

In, the mainframe days, I could read core dumps with the best of them. I wrote a FIOS for the IBM 1301 and some IBM/BTAM crap for typewriter terminals and early IBM 2260 Display Terminals.

But the only stuff I've done at that level, recently, is JailBreak an AppleTV 1 to support Internet video streaming (with help from Erica Sadun), and then JailBreak and futz around with an iPhone gen 1.


I don't understand the significance of @wizard69's "This actually brings up an interesting question about Mac OS, can one telnet or secure shell log into a Mac in its base configuration. "

Though, I am sure that did both when fiddling with JailBroken iOS on the AppleTV and iPhone. So, I suspect that, with the proper setup, Mac OS X can be accessed this way..

The interactive graphical app is the big question.


Though, that could be mitigated in several ways:

-- greater WiFi bandwidth in the hardware
-- intelligent video compression ala h264 OS to OS
-- companion App on Mac to App on iPad.

In fact I am using VNC from an iPad to run Motion on an original Intel iMac 17 1.83 GHz Intel Core Duo, 2 GB RAM, ATI RadeonX1600 GPU.

When playing a simple Motion Project there is about a 2-second latency... not too bad

On my iMac 24 2.8 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo, 4GB RAM, ATI,RadeonHD2600 GPU

I routinely open 5 Screen Sharing windows to update software or transfer files. This works pretty good, even with quite a bit else running on the imac 24. One of these Macs is a Mini attached to an HDTV as a 1080P shared screen.

Also, we periodically stream movies from another Mini Media Library to 2 or 3 Macs, iPads or the AppleTV.

I think what I am saying is that there is a whole lot of Video going back and forth and it seems to work pretty well -- even though the hardware and OS are not designed for this.

.
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post #38 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by bcahill009 View Post

I think your apple fantasy family is in serious need for a family night where they talk to each other. (not using avatars on their iPads using the imac as a power dongle to generate the living space.) ha

Actually it is a real family, active in church and sports -- who routinely read "books" together in the evening.

Ha!
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"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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post #39 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

Time will tell. I don't think these cheap tablet options have been around long enough to come to a conclusion about the impact on Mac sales.

So far they have impacted Mac sales in a big way - a positive way!

The big losers so far are the Wintel vendors... Actually, with the losses some of them are taking on Netbooks, they are probably just as happy to loose those "sales".
post #40 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

So what happens to MS's other monopoly franchise? I'm of course talking about Office. Office is an even more secure monopoly than is Windows, because it sells well to Mac users too. It's got about 95% of the office suite market, more than Windows itself presently.

Oh, there is no refuge for Microsoft in Office.

This is from a story about Microsoft and New York City entering a new cloud computing deal:

Quote:
Under the licenses, the city paid for a the full Microsoft Office suite including Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Outlook and other tools even if many employees used only Word and Outlook.

Under the new deal the city will pay only for the applications employees use.

This is a huge change in strategy for Microsoft where forced bundling has been the strategy for... well, forever! It also represents a significant shift in revenue. I'm sure they are making up for it with the cloud deal - or are they? And even if they are, at best they are breaking even/treading water. Not very inspiring.

With Apple squeezing them on the mobile front, and Google squeezing them on the desktop, Microsoft must really be feeling the pressure (or at least I hope they are! Time to get competitive MS!)
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