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Windows Phone 7 developers fear platform flop - Page 7

post #241 of 289
Am I the only one who finds it incredibly jarring to encounter basic grammatical errors, third grade sentence structure, or just plain incoherence within articles posted on mainstream sites?

Badly designed blogs, rumor sites, discussion boards, or narrow interest web-zines are one thing-- there's a hand-lettered-screed-on- the-laundromat-bulletin-board vibe that reduces expectations.

But when the ambient design suggests legitimate publications with actual editorial staff and budget, shitty writing feels like opening an issue of Time or Sports Illustrated or Car and Driver and discovering they've hired children to provide copy while keeping the professionals in the design department.
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post #242 of 289
As a writer, I do get my back up a little bit when I see all the pure canal water that passes for professional journalism, not just on an editorial level (which can be fixed, if anyone cares), but on a content and thoughtfulness basis as well. But this has become so common, I suppose I'm not jarred by it any longer. I trust you are familiar with Sturgeon's Law. The crap universe grows along with everything else, maybe even faster. If Sturgeon were still around today, he might up his rule-of-thumb to 95%.
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post #243 of 289
I have to agree with the previous posts. And the 'bigger' the site, the more shocking it is.
post #244 of 289
Wow, you can smell the fear in this forum. Just to see how much time folks are spending on dismissing WP7. iPhone proponents must really feel like MS has a potential rival. I guess since Andriod continues to eat into iPhone market share Apple enthusiasts need to do something to make themselves feel good. Bashing MS has always seemd to help huh...

Lol
post #245 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by MChas View Post

Wow, you can smell the fear in this forum. Just to see how much time folks are spending on dismissing WP7. iPhone proponents must really feel like MS has a potential rival. I guess since Andriod continues to eat into iPhone market share Apple enthusiasts need to do something to make themselves feel good. Bashing MS has always seemd to help huh...

A vibrant, competitive cellphone market is good for everyone. Especially users.
Microsoft should be applauded for doing something original. The reboot of Microsoft's mobile software was overdue, but the final outcome is bold. Technically WP7 is good, in some ways great, albeit lacking some features.

But consumers don't buy purely because of technical merit. Despite the geek-viewpoint that assumes all customers see the world in features and numerical terms. To be a commercial success MS has to create a brand and a message which resonates with regular end-users of cellphones.

Historically, MS has always struggled to connect to consumers and deliver differentiated brands and clear consumer message. It's this weakness which is hurting them now.

Windows is a massively successful operating system for desktop computers. It is Microsoft's most successful brand. But it has nothing at all to do with cellphones. WP7 phones don't run Windows software, and the don't even have windows in their user interface. There are no Windows-like user interface elements. So why call it Windows Phone?

It is as if Sony came out with a line of televisions and decided to stamp them with the Walkman logo because Walkman is a popular Sony brand.

MS's advertising campaign was well made, but delivered entirely the wrong message. It made fun of people absorbed in their cellphones. What was the message? Our phones are less engaging?

For a product like this to succeed, a company needs three things.
1) The ability to design a unique superior mobile platform.
2) The engineering ability to create it and make it work.
3) The ability to deliver a simple message about the benefits of the platform to the prospective audience.

MS have always been good at number 2. They occasionally deliver number 1.
But they are clinically incapable of number 3.

C.
post #246 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

... That means it should have time to mature and the time to catch up to Android and iOS feature wise isn't going to be all that long. Probably 6 months or so.

Where do you suppose iOS and Android be "feature wise" in 6 months or so?
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post #247 of 289
AnandTech has a review on several WP7-based devices, his feeling on WP7 as a platform, and a general comparison to other smartphones.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/4045/l...windows-phones
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post #248 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

It's those top applications that define the application store. The rest might be a nice idea, but they don't count jack toward the success of the store.

If you are talking about a store with 1,000 apps, you might have a point.

But when you get to a store the size of Apple's, with the breadth of software that Apple has, you couldn't be more wrong. The chances of the store hitting the long tail are much higher.

One community of 10 users that wants a very specific app in and of itself isn't significant. Thousands of such communities? Now you are talking. And as soon as you start overlapping those communities - splitting one or two members between overlapping communities you are now interlocking your ecosystem in a way that makes it almost impossible for others to compete.

Your dismissal of vertical applications with small communities of users is incredibly myopic.
post #249 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by SevenInchHeels View Post

What company is this? I want to make sure I don't do business with it. I won't productivity at work, not Angry Birds.

Ah, the ad hominem "it's only a toy" argument.

Such an intelligent counter argument. Thank you for playing
post #250 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by kotatsu View Post

It took Android a while to get going and now it's market leader

In sales maybe. Certainly not in revenue, for either it's creator or developers.

What's easier to live off of? Sales numbers or profit? The naivety of simple business concepts expressed in threads like these is simply stunning...
post #251 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmf2 View Post

I repeatably stated that marketshare is not a major concern of Apple's and there is no reason for it to be, but fanboys of all stripes seem to care a lot about it.

On this we agree wholeheartedly.
post #252 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1337_5L4Xx0R View Post

Android is the number one player right now, so that is where the money is

Prove it.

If google makes more on Android than PC makers made on Netbooks I'll eat my hat.
post #253 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamewing View Post

Pippin

The pippin did ship. It was a flop, but it did ship...
post #254 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

professional journalism

I'm curious as to what this means for you.
post #255 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by john galt View Post

Where do you suppose iOS and Android be "feature wise" in 6 months or so?

Android should be at gingerbread and iOS still 4.x with iOS 5 within a month or two.

But in terms of being behind MS will have greatly closed the gap since there's quite a bit of low hanging fruit like cut and paste and notification/multitasking.

Going from 1.x to 2.0 usually represents a bigger jump from 2.x to 3.0 or 4.x to 5.0 in terms of getting to a livable feature set.
post #256 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

Android should be at gingerbread and iOS still 4.x with iOS 5 within a month or two.

But in terms of being behind MS will have greatly closed the gap since there's quite a bit of low hanging fruit like cut and paste and notification/multitasking.

Going from 1.x to 2.0 usually represents a bigger jump from 2.x to 3.0 or 4.x to 5.0 in terms of getting to a livable feature set.

WP7 is off to a pretty good start, IMO. My only glaring concern is the start of the JS browser engine, but the silver lining is IE9r7 is on par with the rest of the industry, so it could be an update away that IE for WP7 could render pages faster than Safari or Android browser.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/4045/l...windows-phones PS: I just read the replies to the previous thread about US v UK TV shows, you summed it up much better than I was. Kudos!
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post #257 of 289
We know Microsoft can go feature complete. The Zune player eventually became very polished. But there is little or no user mindset. Users follow leaders.

RIM had created the market and had many users, even if the feature set lagged, they have momentum (if possibly little fuel... developers are lacking mainly ATM)

Apple is the real "leader" in the minds of "the rest of us" at this point. Apple (as usual) turned the market on its' head, and unlike the past they HAVE all the developers on board.

Palm created a very nice phone, and got a few users and developers, it almost caught on. But Palm made a HUGE mistake with the "works with iTunes" fiasco; a major player (why buy otherwise) would provide their OWN media ecosystem.

Microsoft has finally seen the light; and they certainly know how to court developers. The marketing to end users is still pretty clueless tho and unlikely to correct the conception that Microsoft is an also ran. Microsoft DOES have deep pockets however. But the conception in the minds of users needed to be seeded right away, and the "Microsoft Phone 7 - the phone with less!" Ad campaign is not exactly the right approach. Microsoft should have NOT introduced until they were feature complete and THEN SOME. The new product spark has pretty much "Zuned out".

Android, played it right but sold their soul to the carriers in the process, and the platform will struggle moving forward. They should have kept more control. However the "open source" (well sort of, try submitting a patch) approach bought them some geek cred, especially with peeps who dislike Apples' controlling stance WRT to "Consumer experience". How Android will do in future will become clear enough once iPhones are available from all carriers.

Nokia... Well, they have little hope despite the N8 (Or because of it) but they make nice Featurephones.

You all know this stuff I think; however you all feel about the market.

RIM: Has probably already peaked, but will be around for a while.
Apple: A strong future with "consumers"
Android: Likely to be a big seller (#1 or #2) if not so much of a commercial success for Google.
Microsoft: Another Zune in the making. Guys, Get it right the FIRST time. You needed to here.
Palm: Needs a miracle, but could get one.
Nokia: All but dead from all I can see.

I don't normally comment but I had too much coffee this morning lol.
post #258 of 289
dolphin, and especially Carniphage: Nail on the head.

WP may amount to something at some point, but until then, they are remarkably easy to dismiss.

Of course if they came out with WP7 4 years ago, they'd own the market. But they were the last to cross the finish line, and by a 'technology eternity' to boot. Who was the fourth guy to climb Mount Everest? I swear, WebOS had far more buzz, and look where they wound up.

There are, at this point, many reasons NOT to buy a WP7 phone, and from a manufacturer's POV, two good reasons not to make them: Cost, and sales numbers. Until MS gives it away for free, which IMHO they will have to as part of a long term strategy, I just don't see the upside.

Time, and sales numbers, will tell. I'm not at all optimistic for MS. They have a great product, from the sound of it, but the stigma of fail is all over it.
post #259 of 289
The success of WP7 will hinge on whether MSFT can convince consumers that WP7 fills a need that isn't yet satisfied by other platforms in the market already.

Its not a hardware issue. WP7 has some great hardware already.
Its not an OS issue. The foundation is there and with a few key updates WP7 will be fairly competitive.
Its not an apps issue. Apps grow as the platform grows.

What matters the most at this point is if WP7 can stand out in a crowd. What does WP7 do to set itself apart?

In the corporate world I think the combination of good outlook/office integration combined with a variety of handset options could be the clincher. Corporations don't trust Android and sometimes people want more choice that just iPhone.

In the consumer world I think their prospects aren't quite as bright, but they could displace RIM in this segment.
post #260 of 289
I would expect even stronger XBox tie in given the PSP phone...given that MS doesn't have any problems with physical keyboards the addition of a d-pad support and phone specs to the WP7 API seems more likely than for iOS.

The PSP phone will end up 1st to market as a smartphone gaming phone but that won't translate into an Android platform advantage. Given that WP7 has C# and XNA baked in then a D-pad spec for WP7 means that d-pad gaming phones from HTC, LG, etc will happen first.

What the API IMHO needs to have is automatic d-pad detection and if there isn't a physical one then it brings up a standard soft d-pad/button overlay. That way an indie designer can simply indicate he wants a d-pad and not need any additional coding beyond handling the events.

This would give the WP7 platform a clear advantage over iOS and Android.
post #261 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

I would expect even stronger XBox tie in given the PSP phone...given that MS doesn't have any problems with physical keyboards the addition of a d-pad support and phone specs to the WP7 API seems more likely than for iOS.

The PSP phone will end up 1st to market as a smartphone gaming phone but that won't translate into an Android platform advantage. Given that WP7 has C# and XNA baked in then a D-pad spec for WP7 means that d-pad gaming phones from HTC, LG, etc will happen first.

What the API IMHO needs to have is automatic d-pad detection and if there isn't a physical one then it brings up a standard soft d-pad/button overlay. That way an indie designer can simply indicate he wants a d-pad and not need any additional coding beyond handling the events.

This would give the WP7 platform a clear advantage over iOS and Android.

Launching a gaming handset is dangerous because its so easy to get boxed in as a gaming handset. Suddenly, normal consumers will look at it and think "oh I don't game so I don't need that handset" and they buy an iPhone instead.

I'm not saying it can't be done, but there is a risk that needs to be managed. The PSP phone for example will never be bought by anyone who isn't a hardcore PSP/PS3 gamer. Thats not a very big market on its own.

When people look at iPhone they see what they want to see. I see a great wireless iPod. Kids see a gaming device. Salespeople see a mobile CRM.

If you put a D pad on any phone then people will only see it as a gaming device.
post #262 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by TNSF View Post

If you put a D pad on any phone then people will only see it as a gaming device.

True, but not every WP7 phone will have a d-pad. Some will have physical keyboards for those that text a lot, some will just be slates.
post #263 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocNo42 View Post

I'm curious as to what this means for you.

Sorry I missed this earlier. Working definition: people who are trained as journalists, get paid for journalism, and who actually care about journalism.
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post #264 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by SevenInchHeels View Post

People generally bash things they fear or don't understand. Fanbois have long memories and they remember what happened last time Apple tried to battle MSFT. When Microsoft took 98% of the desktop market and Apple teetered on the brink of bankruptcy.

Not a ll negative comments about WP7 make sense, but that is no reason to reply with urban legends like this one. Apple was run pretty badly, but they never teetered on the brink as they never has less than 1 billion in the bank at any point in time.

Before you know you're repeating the "Microsoft saved Apple" urban legend too.
post #265 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by SevenInchHeels View Post

People generally bash things they fear or don't understand. Fanbois have long memories and they remember what happened last time Apple tried to battle MSFT. When Microsoft took 98% of the desktop market and Apple teetered on the brink of bankruptcy.

Actually I think the last time MSFT and Apple battled it out Apple ended up owning the MP3 player market, the smartphone market and the tablet market.
post #266 of 289
All the while pissing off their developers, antennae-gate users, etc. That's incredible, when you think about it.

And still MS are 4-5 years behind the curve. Google, who are a rag-tag team of FLOSS hippies are out-executing them. At some point MS have to look in the mirror and say 'We need a new plan."

Babylon has fallen; has fallen, that great city.
post #267 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by twospoons View Post

Congrats for drawing conclusions based upon a two month old survey. One which was taken before the phone was even released. Why dont you do the same thing; find a survey which showed the interest for the iPhone 2 months before the first version was released?

http://news.cnet.com/Poll-9-percent-...l?tag=lia;rcol

Considering that the phone was expensive, and not subsidized, that was pretty good. Considering that most WP7 phones are subsidized or pretty close to free. The interest levels aren't at the same level no matter how you look at it.
post #268 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

http://news.cnet.com/Poll-9-percent-...l?tag=lia;rcol

Considering that the phone was expensive, and not subsidized, that was pretty good. Considering that most WP7 phones are subsidized or pretty close to free. The interest levels aren't at the same level no matter how you look at it.

Yeah- you are right. It is pretty hard to argue that the interest levels of any of the iPhones competitors have been anywhere near the level of he iPhone itself, either pre or post launch.
post #269 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

So you think Microsoft will get a decade of reasonable market share before they have to rewrite WP7 and start fresh?

That's actually pretty good.

What's a reasonable share? And considering that the license is, according to reports, about $8 per phone, how many licenses a year does MS need to have before the several hundred million a year they will be spending for R&D, support and marketing is paid for?

IF MS did spend the $500 million they said they were going to for the initial marketing push, and it cost then at least a couple of hundred million over the past two years developing this, will they ever get out of the hole unless they license at least 50 million a year?

This is a real question that not everyone is talking about.
post #270 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

It strikes me as highly unlikely that MS would abandon WP7 anytime in the next couple years. That means it should have time to mature and the time to catch up to Android and iOS feature wise isn't going to be all that long. Probably 6 months or so.

One key device enhancement I see in 2011 is a hardware spec for WP7 gaming phones with DPad to compete with the PSP phone. The PSP phone is probably the only Android phone I would consider buying at this point.

I'm still hoping that Apple provides a common d-pad spec for iOS and native API access but I'm not holding my breath on that one.

So iOS and Android are going to be standing still, waiting for WP7 to catch up?
post #271 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by MChas View Post

Wow, you can smell the fear in this forum. Just to see how much time folks are spending on dismissing WP7. iPhone proponents must really feel like MS has a potential rival. I guess since Andriod continues to eat into iPhone market share Apple enthusiasts need to do something to make themselves feel good. Bashing MS has always seemd to help huh...

Lol

It's more like wondering if WP7 will survive, as much of the industry is wondering. Or, whether will MS pour billions into a product that's losing money year after year, as they did with the Entertainment division, and their internet initiatives.
post #272 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

What's a reasonable share? And considering that the license is, according to reports, about $8 per phone, how many licenses a year does MS need to have before the several hundred million a year they will be spending for R&D, support and marketing is paid for?

IF MS did spend the $500 million they said they were going to for the initial marketing push, and it cost then at least a couple of hundred million over the past two years developing this, will they ever get out of the hole unless they license at least 50 million a year?

This is a real question that not everyone is talking about.

Will it really be that high? That seems like what it might have taken to get it off the ground, but I think moving forward it could be much cheaper.

By my maths, 50M licenses at $8 each is for $400M in R&D. But if that R&D last them several years, and not per year, then I think 50M licenses is feasible. The smartphone market is growing and MS about 1/10th of the smartphone market even before WP7.

Dell also said that Android is more costlier than Windows so I wonder if WP7 adoption will increase this year. I think it will, but only time will tell.

How many smartphones are slated to be sold this year? What is 10% of that market?
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post #273 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

Android should be at gingerbread and iOS still 4.x with iOS 5 within a month or two.

But in terms of being behind MS will have greatly closed the gap since there's quite a bit of low hanging fruit like cut and paste and notification/multitasking.

Going from 1.x to 2.0 usually represents a bigger jump from 2.x to 3.0 or 4.x to 5.0 in terms of getting to a livable feature set.

No, in six months, iOS 5 will be out, for all three of Apple's lines that use it.
post #274 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

http://news.cnet.com/Poll-9-percent-...l?tag=lia;rcol

Considering that the phone was expensive, and not subsidized, that was pretty good. Considering that most WP7 phones are subsidized or pretty close to free. The interest levels aren't at the same level no matter how you look at it.

Even more impressive when you consider that the "smartphone market" as we think of it today didn't even exist, as it had yet to be created by Apple.

Now, it's a given that anyone that doesn't have a smartphone will presently be getting one. Then, smartphones were the provenance of geeks and certain business people. For an unreleased device using a completely unknown model of mobile computing to garner even that level of interest is truly remarkable-- and probably a testament to the abysmal state of the art which motivated Apple to enter the market in the first place.
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post #275 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by iansilv View Post

Yeah- you are right. It is pretty hard to argue that the interest levels of any of the iPhones competitors have been anywhere near the level of he iPhone itself, either pre or post launch.

This is all very interesting. Like some others, I've been comparing the WP7 launch to that of Palm. Palm was certainly the most hyped phone and OS since the iPhone itself. And by hyped, I don't mean by the manufacturer, but as with Apple; the writers, reviewers, and the geek public.

Now, I've seen close to the same for WP7. While the press hasn't been as unequivocal as with the other two, it's been close enough.

But we can compare initial sales as well as possible to get more of an idea. Apple told everyone, from the first weekend, what the sales were, in numbers.

But palm didn't. Instead, they and Sprint held press conferences and made statements on how the Pre was sold out everywhere -EVERYWHERE. Their emphasis. Don't worry, they said, we're making more, everyone will get one.

But, as we found out later, they only sold about 50,000 the first week, and that was considered to be a disaster. They only sold a few hundred thousand for the first quarter, but those sales were to Sprint not to customers. We know what happened to Palm.

But Palm was a small company with one phone. MS is a very large company, and there are 11 or 12 models from several manufacturers out there at different price levels. Palm had few, poorly received Ads, while MS has spent more than Palm's sales were for the entire year.

Now we look at WP7. The same thing. Sold out in Europe where it was being sold. But no numbers from there. No numbers from here either, just platitudes. Finally, MS says that they sold 1.6 million phones, but to carriers and distributers. How many in customer hands? Much less, but no numbers.

Estimates for the first week are weaker than Palm's at 40,000. How can this be? It seems impossible. But the same people who have estimated Palm's and Apple's, and who were pretty close on both, are likely right again. Honestly, I expected to see between 300,000 and 500,000 for the first week. I was shocked with what did come out.

Considering how happy MS is to announce numbers when things are going fine, the fact that like with the Zune, they refuse to give these numbers, means they must not be happy with sales.

I really don't know what other conclusion can be made other than that.
post #276 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Will it really be that high? That seems like what it might have taken to get it off the ground, but I think moving forward it could be much cheaper.

By my maths, 50M licenses at $8 each is for $400M in R&D. But if that R&D last them several years, and not per year, then I think 50M licenses is feasible. The smartphone market is growing and MS about 1/10th of the smartphone market even before WP7.

Dell also said that Android is more costlier than Windows so I wonder if WP7 adoption will increase this year. I think it will, but only time will tell.

How many smartphones are slated to be sold this year? What is 10% of that market?

Estimates for the R&D budgets for MS and Apple for their mobile OS's are between 150 and 250 million a year, for each company, of course. It sounds like a lot, but it's not. R&D costs are much higher these days. It isn't just the software, They have to test against hardware, do certifications, maintain labs, etc. Apple's direct R&D costs are higher because of their direct phone R&D costs added in.

But then support must be added into that. Support to the manufacturers, and support to the end users. Then they must work on the stores and such. Add marketing. How much could this cost each year? An awful lot.
post #277 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Even more impressive when you consider that the "smartphone market" as we think of it today didn't even exist, as it had yet to be created by Apple.

Now, it's a given that anyone that doesn't have a smartphone will presently be getting one. Then, smartphones were the provenance of geeks and certain business people. For an unreleased device using a completely unknown model of mobile computing to garner even that level of interest is truly remarkable-- and probably a testament to the abysmal state of the art which motivated Apple to enter the market in the first place.

When I bought my first smartphone, a Samsung i300, a half a million sales a year was considered to be a lot. When later, I bought my Treo 700p, a million was considered to be a lot.

Now, a million is a fairly successful first weekend.
post #278 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

What's a reasonable share? And considering that the license is, according to reports, about $8 per phone, how many licenses a year does MS need to have before the several hundred million a year they will be spending for R&D, support and marketing is paid for?

IF MS did spend the $500 million they said they were going to for the initial marketing push, and it cost then at least a couple of hundred million over the past two years developing this, will they ever get out of the hole unless they license at least 50 million a year?

This is a real question that not everyone is talking about.

Given that scenario how many licenses does Google have to sell at $0 to break even?

How much will MS make from their app store?

How much will MS make from their own apps (games and productivity)? For WP7 Tablet Edition, assuming it ever gets made, they have the one killer app that folks would pay $99+. MS Office.

I spent $15 on quick office, $30 on iWork (pages, numbers, keynote), and maybe another $30-40 on other productivity apps (goodreader, penultimate, etc). I'd trade them all in for a $99 Office Mobile Pro that included OneNote.
post #279 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

Given that scenario how many licenses does Google have to sell at $0 to break even?

How much will MS make from their app store?

How much will MS make from their own apps (games and productivity)? For WP7 Tablet Edition, assuming it ever gets made, they have the one killer app that folks would pay $99+. MS Office.

I spent $15 on quick office, $30 on iWork (pages, numbers, keynote), and maybe another $30-40 on other productivity apps (goodreader, penultimate, etc). I'd trade them all in for a $99 Office Mobile that included OneNote.

Google gives the OS away, but charges for the apps that come with it.

But they rely on the Ad model. 97% of all the revenue at Google is from Ads. That's where they make their money from with Android, except for those apps. MS isn't using the same model. It's more a matter of some Ads here and there, but not pervasively.
post #280 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

So iOS and Android are going to be standing still, waiting for WP7 to catch up?

That's addressed in the post you replied to next.

Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

No, in six months, iOS 5 will be out, for all three of Apple's lines that use it.

iOS 2 was released on July 11, 2008
iOS 3 was released on June 17, 2009
iOS 4 was released on June 21, 2010

Six months from Dec 2, 2010 (when I made that post) is May 2, 2011. Or about 1-2 months from when iOS 5 would be released based on when all previous iOS major revs were released.

Six months from today is June 12, 2011 which would still be the earliest of the dates for an iOS release. The odds are mid June to early July for iOS 5.

In any case you're missing the point that MS has a lot of low hanging fruit they can address in their next release. The next point release (1.1) will have cut and paste and 3rd party app load speed improvements. Probably some other minor stuff as well. The expectation was Jan but Ballmer said no it's 30-60 days out at CES.

Base apps will get updates as well to close the gap. Bing maps is rumored to get turn by turn like Google Maps. They'll have a few more major app holes filled in the next month or two.

By May-June the gaps will have narrowed quite a bit even before a 2.0 release (Mango...really MS?) later on in the year.

http://www.engadget.com/2011/01/11/w...ste-is-real-r/

http://www.1800pocketpc.com/2011/01/...-ces-2011.html
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