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Windows Phone 7 developers fear platform flop - Page 8

post #281 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

That's addressed in the post you replied to next.



iOS 2 was released on July 11, 2008
iOS 3 was released on June 17, 2009
iOS 4 was released on June 21, 2010

Six months from Dec 2, 2010 (when I made that post) is May 2, 2011. Or about 1-2 months from when iOS 5 would be released based on when all previous iOS major revs were released.

Six months from today is June 12, 2011 which would still be the earliest of the dates for an iOS release. The odds are mid June to early July for iOS 5.

In any case you're missing the point that MS has a lot of low hanging fruit they can address in their next release. The next point release (1.1) will have cut and paste and 3rd party app load speed improvements. Probably some other minor stuff as well. The expectation was Jan but Ballmer said no it's 30-60 days out at CES.

Base apps will get updates as well to close the gap. Bing maps is rumored to get turn by turn like Google Maps. They'll have a few more major app holes filled in the next month or two.

By May-June the gaps will have narrowed quite a bit even before a 2.0 release (Mango...really MS?) later on in the year.

http://www.engadget.com/2011/01/11/w...ste-is-real-r/

http://www.1800pocketpc.com/2011/01/...-ces-2011.html

I didn't realize that first post was from early December. That would have made it 7 months. But from now, it's not 6 months, it's 5 months.

But iOS is getting updates as well. We got 4.1. Then 4.2. Then we'll be getting 4.3. All of these add some features, and performance improvements.

But then in June, there will be a major release, and you don't doubt it will be something that smacks WP7 upside the head?

So WP7 gets some catch-up update in March or April. How much of a difference will that really make? I'm one of those who was saying that neither c/paste and multitasking had much of an affect on the iPhone's sales, and I'll stick with that assessment.

I also think that updates to WP7 isn't going to affect Apple's sales one bit. Likely not Android sales either. Maybe BB sales, but then, they're in a nosedive here in the States anyway.
post #282 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Google gives the OS away, but charges for the apps that come with it.

But they rely on the Ad model. 97% of all the revenue at Google is from Ads. That's where they make their money from with Android, except for those apps. MS isn't using the same model. It's more a matter of some Ads here and there, but not pervasively.

The current Office Mobile is more for viewing (and light commenting) than content creation because...well phones are small but a pro version for the tablet I think would bring quite a bit of revenue for MS. I think that if it's redesigned for the tablet environment as well as Keynote or QuickOffice they can charge quite a bit for it. The free version would just do content viewing/commenting and presentation capabilities.

As far as MS's model yes, they aren't ad drive. And given that their model isn't ad driven their app store will likely be more like Apple's paid model than Android's ad model...which should bring in more direct revenue than the Android Market does for Google.

Eh, time will tell but MS appears to be in it for the long haul. They lost tons of money on XBox but pulled a win on the XBox 360 even with all its flaws. That gave them a huge living room footprint they can attempt to leverage for other stuff. Even the Zune disaster gave them something for WP7 to build on. Without the Zune they'd be even more hosed with only WM6 to build on.
post #283 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

But iOS is getting updates as well. We got 4.1. Then 4.2. Then we'll be getting 4.3. All of these add some features, and performance improvements.

But then in June, there will be a major release, and you don't doubt it will be something that smacks WP7 upside the head?

Not really. WP7 is still missing core functionality like cut and paste, multitasking, etc. Right now WP7 is kinda like iOS 1.0 vs iOS 4. When it gets to WP7 2.0 it'll be like iOS 3.0 vs iOS 5.0.

Quote:
So WP7 gets some catch-up update in March or April. How much of a difference will that really make? I'm one of those who was saying that neither c/paste and multitasking had much of an affect on the iPhone's sales, and I'll stick with that assessment.

I also think that updates to WP7 isn't going to affect Apple's sales one bit. Likely not Android sales either. Maybe BB sales, but then, they're in a nosedive here in the States anyway.

They get to an iOS 2.0 state next month sometime. Will that affect Apple sales? Not likely. On the other hand there are many other softer targets out there and I don't necessarily mean Android. MS has a win if they can position themselves well for the next generation with a positive velocity. I think WP7 gives them a great platform for that. What they need to do is use it for tablets quickly and stop dinking around with Win7.
post #284 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

Not really. WP7 is still missing core functionality like cut and paste, multitasking, etc. Right now WP7 is kinda like iOS 1.0 vs iOS 4. When it gets to WP7 2.0 it'll be like iOS 3.0 vs iOS 5.0.

Can't agree with that. Sure, MS will likely get much of the basic stuff done, but it's more than that. Apple will remain two steps ahead.

Unless, of course, you feel that there's nothing much that's major to add to a phone OS, and that they're all pretty much finished.

Quote:
They get to an iOS 2.0 state next month sometime. Will that affect Apple sales? Not likely. On the other hand there are many other softer targets out there and I don't necessarily mean Android. MS has a win if they can position themselves well for the next generation with a positive velocity. I think WP7 gives them a great platform for that. What they need to do is use it for tablets quickly and stop dinking around with Win7.

I've read a bunch of things about WP7 that don't seem great. The excessive scrolling is one of them. Apparently, and I haven't played with one for more than a couple of minutes so far, so I'm just relating what I've read, there isn't anything on the edge of the screen to allow you to move without that scrolling, which gets tedious after a lot of contacts or other stuff gets added. Little things like that.

Well, so far, sales are a disaster. That they're not releasing numbers is indicative of that. It's the Wayback Machine to the release of the Pre, when the same thing happened. If sales don't improve seriously, then this won't be good for anything.

And MS's entertainment division has had major losses every year since they came out with the first XBox, until last year, when they made a very small profit. The 360 has cost them plenty. I guess that should have been added to my last post.
post #285 of 289
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post #286 of 289
I think MS has no choice but to plant their flag behind WP7 and do whatever it takes to keep it rolling no matter what.

-MS is fully aware of their late entry to the smartphone market (with a viable competitive OS, anyway)
-MS spent half a billion dollars or more on KIN only to have it flop in the most publicly embarrassing way imaginable
-MS spent another half billion dollars (correct me if I'm wrong?) in R&D for WP7
-MS spent yet another half billion dollars (according to MS anyway) marketing WP7

In addition, all the heavy lifting has been done - they have designed a new GUI (which features elements so hideous it boggles my mind), fleshed out the rest of the OS, poured time and money into getting developers interested, and established a rudimentary "app store" (oops that name is copyrighted - better sue Apple on that one), their old mobile OS 6.5 is now retired, and they know the entire world is watching them verrrrry closely. One can only imagine how sweaty their product meetings are these days. They simply have no choice but to forge on and stay in there for the long term.

One thing I note with interest: people enjoy pointing out that iPhone had such a huge advantage when it launched because it had no real competition at the time etc etc. Consider that WP7 launched with something like 10 different models on major carriers across US and Europe. THAT, and MS's name attached to the product, is a HUGE advantage. Overwhelming, in fact. The fact that MS hides its true sales numbers is a true indicator of just how underwhelming things are.

I give credit to MS for some of the more innovative features in WP7 and I certainly am no hater of MS, but this is truly lame. They should stick to developing serious business software, for that is all they are good at. They do not have the agility, nor the tradition, nor the talent to design a fun, cool, functional, "chic" mobile device. I expected much more from MS. They have unlimited money and unlimited access to unlimited talent. And yet, WP7 is what we get. If they fail they richly, richly deserve it.

But as I say, MS has no choice but to stay the course so I predict they'll wait another few months and then gleefully fire out a few gap-toothed grinning press releases indicating how delighted they are at having sold "millions of devices!", how things are "meeting or exceeding expectations", how "rich and deep" their development community is, how their "app store" is busting at the seams, growing by "dozens, if not hundreds" of apps every day, how "thrilled" they are at the "incredibly positive" customer feedback indicating WP7 "provides [their] customers with the power and flexibility they expect and enjoy", how people everywhere are "flocking" around their marvelous device, how "excited" they are to provide yet another OS update that gives users functionality pre-existing in other devices, and overall how splendiferous things are going. Excited! Smiles all round! Pats on the back! Thumbs up! Attaboy! Going great!
post #287 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Can't agree with that. Sure, MS will likely get much of the basic stuff done, but it's more than that. Apple will remain two steps ahead.

Sure, but the point is that two steps ahead beats the hell out of 3-4 steps ahead. Do I think the iPhone is complete in evolution? No, of course not. I do feel that the next steps for the iPhone are more evolutionary than revolutionary. The major step was changing the entire smartphone paradigm.
post #288 of 289
post #289 of 289
Quote:
Originally Posted by lav1daloca View Post

When MS released WP7, their employees held a funeral themed party with iPhone and Blackberry signs!

First thing I thought was, don't get ahead of yourselves guys because this WP7 will end up in the grave faster than Windows Mobile did.

I was right.

Nice post for the day Nokia announces there going to adopt WP7 for all there smartphones. Not Android and WP7 just WP7.
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