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In battle of iPad vs. Android-based Galaxy Tab, 85% prefer Apple

post #1 of 161
Thread Starter 
A new consumer poll pitting the Samsung Galaxy Tab against the iPad discovered that an overwhelming majority -- 85 percent -- prefer Apple's touchscreen tablet.

Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray revealed the results of a survey he and his team recently conducted. The Galaxy Tab got off to a relatively strong start, selling 600,000 worldwide in its first month of availability.

In the survey of 65 consumers, customers were asked to share what they believe the "perceived value" of each tablet is. Those polled indicated they felt the 3G-capable iPad is worth about $417 -- less than its actual price of $629, but also much higher than the $283 perceived value of the Galaxy Tab.

The survey indicates that customers believe both products should have lower prices, but also shows that respondents felt that the iPad is a product of more valuable than the Android-based Galaxy Tab.

"We note that the Galaxy Tab is not available in a Wi-Fi only model, which would compare to the Wi-Fi only iPad at $499," Munster wrote. "That said, we would expect the results of a similar survey conducted with the less expensive Wi-Fi only iPad to amplify the difference in perceived value relative to the MSRP. In other words, the perceived value of an iPad is actually slightly closer to its base-MSRP than our survey suggests."

Munster said he expects both the iPad and Android-based tablets to succeed, but Apple has the advantage of a head start. He has forecast that the tablet market will grow 205 percent year over year in calendar year 2011, hitting 44.2 million units.

He has predicted that Apple will sell 13 million iPads in calendar year 2010, representing an 89 percent market share. But Apple's share is projected to dip to 53 percent in calendar year 2011, with sales of 23.3 million units. He sees Android taking a 33 percent share, with 14.4 million total units.



Munster has referred to the iPad as the "Mac of the masses," as Apple's tablet is already outselling the Mac. After tracking sales on Black Friday last week, Piper Jaffray found that consumer interest in the iPad was significantly strong for the holidays.
post #2 of 161
Those crazy 15%!
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
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post #3 of 161
I think it will take longer for Android tablets to be competitive.

Rivals to match the iPhones user experience took a lot longer to arrive than anyone expected.

Also the main appeal of an iPad is that it is a big sceen app console and Android isn't anywhere near as strong a platform for apps and games. Also the Android Marketplace does not have the global reach as the App Store.
post #4 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

He has predicted that Apple will sell 13 million iPads in calendar year 2010, representing an 89 percent market share. But Apple's share is projected to dip to 53 percent in calendar year 2011.

Did Munster forget the next gen. iPad2 in his calculations?
Even considering there would be no successor of the current iPad, it is hard to imagine that the market share would be dropping that much.
post #5 of 161
Quote:
In the survey of 65 consumers

I'm sure the iPad *is* preferred, but a survey of 65 people has a margin of error of like +/- 25% or something.

Lemme put it this way: Political polls generally survey at least 400 voters, and even then the MoE is around 5%; to drop it down to 3% they have to bump it up to around 1,000 voters.
post #6 of 161
15% of users need to get their head checked.

It's like going to the race track and betting on the horse with the bum leg.
post #7 of 161
Survey of 65 people? Munster is making up stories now, what a guy
post #8 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheShepherd View Post

Survey of 65 people? Munster is making up stories now, what a guy

Still it's more than believeable. Apple experience vs Samsung/google bastard? One must be special to take Tab and the price difference is just 30 bucks.

Which of us is the fisherman and which the trout?

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Which of us is the fisherman and which the trout?

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post #9 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach View Post

Did Munster forget the next gen. iPad2 in his calculations?
Even considering there would be no successor of the current iPad, it is hard to imagine that the market share would be dropping that much.

There hasn't really been much in the way of competition all year long. It's basically been iPad and the Joojoo. heh. With the Tab finally out and other tablets hitting now or the first half of next year, it won't be surprising at all for Apple to lose a larger chunk of next year's total sales. This happens when you go from no competition to several competitors.
post #10 of 161
Wow! 65! I feel really good about that sample being representative of the BILLIONS of people on the planet.
post #11 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Those crazy 15%!

One of them was DaHarder...
post #12 of 161
I've played with the Tab a bit. Other than the supposed Flash playback... Meh

BTW South Korea only got the iPad on Tuesday 30th Nov. I'm sure the stories coming out will be hundreds of thousands sold, out of stock fast, etc etc over the next few months.

No iPad 3G in China at all apparently (see the Apple China Online Store). Buying a 32GB 3G iPad here in Malaysia for my friend in Shanghai.
post #13 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach View Post

Did Munster forget the next gen. iPad2 in his calculations?
Even considering there would be no successor of the current iPad, it is hard to imagine that the market share would be dropping that much.

Not just Munster... I see arguments on here constantly where it seems that some people think that what you see from Apple now is the way it will be forever... as if Apple has stopped innovating, stopped upgrading and will remain dormant from here forward.

Sorry... just something I've been noticing and had to mention.

Back to regular programming...
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na na na na na...
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post #14 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevetim View Post

Wow! 65! I feel really good about that sample being representative of the BILLIONS of people on the planet.

65 is a small number, but it appears that even with this number, the results are significant.

With a sample of 65, the error margin is +/- 12%.
http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html

So we know that somewhere between 73% and 97% prefer the iPad (given a certain probability). That's a meaningful result, even with the large error margin.

If they had chosen a larger sample, the error margin would have been smaller, but the result wouldn't have been different - the iPad wins by a wide margin.

The real problem is not the size of the sample, but how representative it is. For example, if they sampled a group of people coming out of the Apple Store, the answer would have been very different than if they sampled people coming out of 'Geeks 'R Us'. Particularly with these small samples, you have to be VERY careful to avoid sample bias.
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post #15 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach View Post

Did Munster forget the next gen. iPad2 in his calculations?
Even considering there would be no successor of the current iPad, it is hard to imagine that the market share would be dropping that much.

The other 50% of the tablet market in 2011 will probably be cheapo tablets promising everything under the sun. Apple is only one company. They could supply 50 million or so iPads that would be sold in 2011 should they be able to make that much. Every other company in total could sell 30-60 million or so. But it has been one year and no real iPad competitors still. Who knows.

Apple's goal in 2011: no slip ups on iPhone5 and iPad2, and make about 100 million of them or more. That's a lot to do. Among all the other stuff they do.
post #16 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

I've played with the Tab a bit. Other than the supposed Flash playback... Meh

BTW South Korea only got the iPad on Tuesday 30th Nov. I'm sure the stories coming out will be hundreds of thousands sold, out of stock fast, etc etc over the next few months.

No iPad 3G in China at all apparently (see the Apple China Online Store). Buying a 32GB 3G iPad here in Malaysia for my friend in Shanghai.

as i'm in china now, i know it sucks not to get iPad 3g... luckily hongkong is very near for us and it is easily available in grey market in china for 675 dollars... that's how i got it.

my way or the highway...

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my way or the highway...

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post #17 of 161
Samsung tab simply doesn't know what it should do to surprise the customers !
post #18 of 161
I think this is one of the most nonsensicle surverys I've seen in a very long time. First, only 65 people leads to a pretty big margin of error. Second it talks about perceived value of devices with two different screen sizes. Of course the users are going to think the larger one is worth more! And last, as someone already pointed out, who were these people? How many of those 65 have actually used BOTH devices? And the Galaxy Tab is so new, how many of them even knew anything about it other than heard the name before?

I could never be an analyst because I could never live with myself if this is the level of quality that was expected of my work.
post #19 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

65 is a small number, but it appears that even with this number, the results are significant.

With a sample of 65, the error margin is +/- 12%.
http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html

So we know that somewhere between 73% and 97% prefer the iPad (given a certain probability). That's a meaningful result, even with the large error margin.

If they had chosen a larger sample, the error margin would have been smaller, but the result wouldn't have been different - the iPad wins by a wide margin.

The real problem is not the size of the sample, but how representative it is. For example, if they sampled a group of people coming out of the Apple Store, the answer would have been very different than if they sampled people coming out of 'Geeks 'R Us'. Particularly with these small samples, you have to be VERY careful to avoid sample bias.

Great points, and by the way i love that link. However, I would call a 73% to 97% range pathetic for any meaningful conclusions. On your point of representative sample ... isn't the point of this type of logic not to be representative, but totally random? I guess the answer to this question is how you define the population, which the article does not mention.
post #20 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

The other 50% of the tablet market in 2011 will probably be cheapo tablets promising everything under the sun. Apple is only one company. They could supply 50 million or so iPads that would be sold in 2011 should they be able to make that much. Every other company in total could sell 30-60 million or so. But it has been one year and no real iPad competitors still. Who knows.

Apple's goal in 2011: no slip ups on iPhone5 and iPad2, and make about 100 million of them or more. That's a lot to do. Among all the other stuff they do.

Hmm I just remember, the pre-iPad age where everyone said "nah nobody needs a tablet PC. " Still there where quite some tablets around. Cheap ones and not so cheap ones. But they never sold millions of units probably even if you count them all together. So apple has definitely got the trick there. And I believe People noticed this and won't go for the cheapos, because they are as useless as ever. Even the galaxy tab which is probably one of the best competitors around sucks, because the apps on the android marketplace don't really take advantage of the extra screen size. And google has not even come out with an android version for tablets.\
post #21 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Not just Munster... I see arguments on here constantly where it seems that some people think that what you see from Apple now is the way it will be forever... as if Apple has stopped innovating, stopped upgrading and will remain dormant from here forward.

Sorry... just something I've been noticing and had to mention.

Back to regular programming...

People make those sorts of arguments all the time. One that's been popping up recently is that tablets/iOS devices will displace "traditional" computers in a couple of years because soon tablets will be able to do "everything" desktops and laptops do today, as though desktop and laptop development will immediately stop dead. I think it's mostly an expression of wishful thinking, from those who are excited about the possibility of a certain outcome, or panic by those horrified. Rational thought processes cease and wild prognostications are made.
post #22 of 161
I agree with previous posters -- at 65, this should be called a focus group, not a survey. But this isn't meaningless. Unless the analyst made an effort to select people he thought would prefer the iPad (unlikely and hard to do anyway), the basic message is believable -- most people prefer the iPad.

Anyone who's held both in their hands wouldn't be surprised by this anyway. One's clunky, one's not. List the features all you want, usability is the most important factor.

In my girlfriend's words when she saw the Galaxy for the first time (having played with the iPad on several occasions), "wow, that's an iPad competitor? that thing looks like it sucks." Haha.
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post #23 of 161
News just in: 55.25 people like the iPad.

I asked myself if I like the iPad. I said yes. According to my brilliant, impartial and thoroughly researched survey: 100% of people prefer the iPad.
post #24 of 161
AI has stooped to a serious new low.
post #25 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

65 is a small number, but it appears that even with this number, the results are significant.

With a sample of 65, the error margin is +/- 12%.
http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html

So we know that somewhere between 73% and 97% prefer the iPad (given a certain probability). That's a meaningful result, even with the large error margin.

If they had chosen a larger sample, the error margin would have been smaller, but the result wouldn't have been different - the iPad wins by a wide margin.

The real problem is not the size of the sample, but how representative it is. For example, if they sampled a group of people coming out of the Apple Store, the answer would have been very different than if they sampled people coming out of 'Geeks 'R Us'. Particularly with these small samples, you have to be VERY careful to avoid sample bias.

It's really not surprising you're buying into this crap and justifying this article.

What was their sound measurement again? Oh right, asking how much a 7" tablet costs vs a 10".

I mean what absolute CRAP.
post #26 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gadgetoid View Post

News just in: 55.25 people like the iPad.

I asked myself if I like the iPad. I said yes. According to my brilliant, impartial and thoroughly researched survey: 100% of people prefer the iPad.

I did a independent study with a similar sized survey group, which fully support your results!
post #27 of 161
Munster predicts Apple will sell 13 million in 2010(available for 9 months)
And he thinks they will only sell 23 million in 2011?

The thing with the iPad is that most people don't think they need/want one until they actually experience it. Apple has deployed 13 million iPads into the population as these iPads are used at homes, schools, work, planes, coffee shops, etc. they will be selling themselves.

Also don't ignore the halo effect. Most iPad owners I know already have an iPhone. There are lots of Verizon customers who are waiting for the iPhone because they have already been sold on the product. Once they get an iPhone they will be twice as likely to then get an iPad.

My prediction is Apple will sell 30-40 million iPads in 2011.
post #28 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheShepherd View Post

Survey of 65 people? Munster is making up stories now, what a guy

Exactly.... 65!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That's no statistal poll by a long shot... it's just for headlines... shame on AppleInsider for posting such crap...

shame shame shame!!!!

Shit, we all love Apple.... but this is just stupid.

post #29 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by RayInHou View Post

Exactly.... 65!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That's no statistal poll by a long shot... it's just for headlines... shame on AppleInsider for posting such crap...

shame shame shame!!!!

Shit, we all love Apple.... but this is just stupid.


Well Posted... Enough Said!
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post #30 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

AI has stooped to a serious new low.

You haven't been here very long have you?
post #31 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevetim View Post

Wow! 65! I feel really good about that sample being representative of the BILLIONS of people on the planet.

I am a rabid, Kool Aid drinking, RDF basking, Apple fanboi lemming and even I think this is a steaming pile of monkey poop.
post #32 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevetim View Post

Great points, and by the way i love that link. However, I would call a 73% to 97% range pathetic for any meaningful conclusions. On your point of representative sample ... isn't the point of this type of logic not to be representative, but totally random? I guess the answer to this question is how you define the population, which the article does not mention.

Sorry, but a 73-97% range is sufficient for what the survey wants to show. People overwhelmingly prefer the iPad to the Tab.

You're confused about methodology. If you're trying to predict the behavior of the entire population, then the sample selected must be representative of the entire population. That usually means it should be random, but not necessarily.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

It's really not surprising you're buying into this crap and justifying this article.

It's really not surprising that you launch into irrelevant ad-hominem attacks rather than discussing it rationally as I tried to do. You're unable to refute the information I provided, so you simply attack with inane, irrelevant comments. Typical for you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

What was their sound measurement again? Oh right, asking how much a 7" tablet costs vs a 10".

Thanks for showing that you can't even comprehend what the discussion is about.

They both COST about the same ($629 vs. $599). Consumers believe the iPad is WORTH far more ($417 vs $283).

If anything, your size argument simply suggests that the Tab is a rip-off since it costs about the same and only has 1/2 the screen area.
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post #33 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

65 is a small number, but it appears that even with this number, the results are significant.

With a sample of 65, the error margin is +/- 12%.
http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html

So we know that somewhere between 73% and 97% prefer the iPad (given a certain probability). That's a meaningful result, even with the large error margin.

If they had chosen a larger sample, the error margin would have been smaller, but the result wouldn't have been different - the iPad wins by a wide margin.

The real problem is not the size of the sample, but how representative it is. For example, if they sampled a group of people coming out of the Apple Store, the answer would have been very different than if they sampled people coming out of 'Geeks 'R Us'. Particularly with these small samples, you have to be VERY careful to avoid sample bias.

Nice post! Well said...
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post #34 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

One of them was DaHarder...

Yea, and his family "bought 3 each" .....
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post #35 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

You haven't been here very long have you?

I've been reading AI articles a few years now. I've seen them post some serious crap, but this is bad.

It would be a start to at least change the title. Maybe something like "Survey of 65 people reveal tablets are undervalued."
post #36 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

AI has stooped to a serious new low.

Well, they could raise the bar by deleting 1475 "selected posts". ....
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post #37 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

One of them was DaHarder...

I bet he forged his IP address 9 times.
post #38 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Thanks for showing that you can't even comprehend what the discussion is about.

They both COST about the same ($629 vs. $599). Consumers believe the iPad is WORTH far more ($417 vs $283).

If anything, your size argument simply suggests that the Tab is a rip-off since it costs about the same and only has 1/2 the screen area.

The discussion is about 65 people who thought both tablets were worth a lot less than they actually are, meaning they don't have a clue what they're talking about, so naturally they said the SMALLER tablet must cost less.

You tried to use science to justify nonsense!

BTW, "size argument simply suggests that the Tab is a rip-off"??
Actually, it's to show that they have no clue what they're talking about, and put screen size ahead of system specs.

There's a reason I had you on my ignore list. I'm reminded instantly why.
post #39 of 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbee View Post

Yea, and his family "bought 3 each" .....

Along with a couple of iPads and NOOKcolors...



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post #40 of 161
Engadget has an article on this as well, including pointing out Munster's shenanigans.

http://www.engadget.com/2010/12/02/5...he-galaxy-tab/
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