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iPad predicted to drive 50% of Apple's financial growth in 2011

post #1 of 42
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The iPad, a product that didn't even exist a year ago, is expected to cause nearly 50 percent of all growth for Apple in fiscal year 2011, according to one Wall Street analyst.

Robert Cihra with Caris & Company issued a note to investors on Friday noting that Apple's growth is "stunning." He said the company has managed to effectively create its own growth through innovation, while its competitors are lost "in a sea of otherwise commoditized hardware."

In the December quarter, Cihra expects Apple to sell 6.7 million iPads. He has also projected the sale of 32 million iPads in fiscal year 2011, accounting for more growth in Apple's bottom line than the iPhone.

"A product that didn't even exist a year ago... now leads an entire charge to thin-client access/computing architecture," he wrote. He sees the iPad "igniting an explosion toward 'thin-client' access computing, with Apple's most extensible advantage its lightweight iOS software and apps ecosystem."

Cihra sees the iPhone accounting for more than 40 percent of Apple's fiscal year 2011 growth, with 64 million units sold. He also sees another 5 percent expansion in the company's bottom line thanks to the Mac platform, where he sees sales increasing 19 percent year over year.

Accordingly, Caris & Company has raised its price target for AAPL stock to $400, up from its previous projection of $375.



Looking forward, Cihra sees iOS becoming "one of the world's most pervasive operating systems," thanks to an estimated total of 157 million iOS devices sold to date at the end of calendar year 2010.

He also expects Apple to turn on its massive North Carolina data center soon to drive more cloud-based services. Cihra noted that Apple increased its capital expenditures more than 100 percent in fiscal year 2010, driven by non-retail store costs.

Apple plans to increase its capital expenses another 55 percent year over year in fiscal year 2011, when the company has said it will spend about $4 billion. Part of that will go toward Apple's massive retail expansion plans in 2011, with 40 to 50 new stores expended to account for about $600 million.
post #2 of 42
That sounds a bit much but then again as the next generation iPad comes out who knows? As a share holder I welcome everything that makes Apple more valuable. As a Mac user I fear, perhaps erroneously, for my beloved Macs The thin client approach and the new Apple cloud we all assume is coming will probably make this prediction come true the more i think about it.
(forgive there being no silly comment about being first!)
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post #3 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

That sounds a bit much but then again as the next generation iPad comes out who knows? As a share holder I welcome everything that makes Apple more valuable. As a Mac user I fear, perhaps erroneously, for my beloved Macs
(forgive there being no silly comment about being first!)

I can hardly wait to see what surprises the next gen iPad will bring to the table. Apple knows that it will have drive sales to new levels, I'm sure the market is not even close to being saturated. It'll be interesting to see if they keep gen one on the shelves at a lower price point; something tells me they won't for fear that it would cannibalize the new model.
(forgive there being no silly comment about DaHarder)
Hmmmmmm...
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Hmmmmmm...
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post #4 of 42
Ipad competition needs to at least beat Apple prices. In Canada, the 16g Samsung Galaxie sells for 649$ while the ipad 3g sells for the same price.

If you go to the super market and the noname cheese whiz is the same price has the brand name, your going to buy the real thing. To beat Apple, you must sell at a lower price, I would even say at a much lower price.

That makes me wonder if Apple owns some kind of patents for the ipad to prevent everyone, there mother and there pets from copying it. Apple made that category worked and now anyone can come in with cheap clones?
post #5 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I can hardly wait to see what surprises the next gen iPad will bring to the table. Apple knows that it will have drive sales to new levels, I'm sure the market is not even close to being saturated. It'll be interesting to see if they keep gen one on the shelves at a lower price point; something tells me they won't for fear that it would cannibalize the new model.
(forgive there being no silly comment about DaHarder)

Agreed. I added a get out clause after you posted lol. (Who is DaHarder?)
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post #6 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

Ipad competition needs to at least beat Apple prices. In Canada, the 16g Samsung Galaxie sells for 649$ while the ipad 3g sells for the same price.

If you go to the super market and the noname cheese whiz is the same price has the brand name, your going to buy the real thing. To beat Apple, you must sell at a lower price, I would even say at a much lower price.

That makes me wonder if Apple owns some kind of patents for the ipad to prevent everyone, there mother and there pets from copying it. Apple made that category worked and now anyone can come in with cheap clones?

Copying hardware 'cheaply' has been the key to fortunes in the PC market but they all had a level playing field when it came to the OS, peripherals and all else. This is a different game now, the iPad isn't just amazing hardware (and I think a lot of that is well protected by patents plus much of it is Apple's own) but about the OS and eco system. There is no way the clone makes can compete there so they are to put it politely, royally screwed IMHO.
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post #7 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

Ipad competition needs to at least beat Apple prices. In Canada, the 16g Samsung Galaxie sells for 649$ while the ipad 3g sells for the same price.

If you go to the super market and the noname cheese whiz is the same price has the brand name, your going to buy the real thing. ...

Especially if the no-name cheese whiz is only 8oz. and the brand name is 16.
post #8 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Copying hardware 'cheaply' has been the key to fortunes in the PC market but they all had a level playing field when it came to the OS, peripherals and all else. This is a different game now, the iPad isn't just amazing hardware (and I think a lot of that is well protected by patents plus much of it is Apple's own) but about the OS and eco system. There is no way the clone makes can compete there so they are to put it politely, royally screwed IMHO.

They've been royally screwed for a long time, only most people didn't know it. They have always been in a market where competition is fierce, margins are low, and they don't even get to determine how their products work. For their troubles, the lion's share of the profits go to Microsoft. During the '80s and '90s their awful situation was papered over by huge growth in the PC market. As soon as that tide receded, it became even more obvious that the Microsoft OEMs were in a miserable business. To make matters worse, diversification proved to be difficult because the business model they'd grown up with didn't supply them with the technical expertise required to make it work.

As for AAPL, I wish investors were more convinced of these iPad profit numbers. The stock has been stuck in a rut for two months.
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post #9 of 42
What would happen if the next AppleTV would run iOS apps and come bundled with wireless game controllers? I bet analysts will predict AppleTV to drive 50% of Apple's financial growth 2012

I would probably play more games on my iPhone, specially the FPS type, if it had a D-pad type of attachment available for it. I wonder why no one has made a snap-on game controller attachment for the iPhone or iPod Touch?
post #10 of 42
It seems to me that "growth," "sales," and "profit" are all very different. Growth figures, independent of sales, can be quite misleading, I think.
post #11 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

They've been royally screwed for a long time, only most people didn't know it. They have always been in a market where competition is fierce, margins are low, and they don't even get to determine how their products work. For their troubles, the lion's share of the profits go to Microsoft. During the '80s and '90s their awful situation was papered over by huge growth in the PC market. As soon as that tide receded, it became even more obvious that the Microsoft OEMs were in a miserable business. To make matters worse, diversification proved to be difficult because the business model they'd grown up with didn't supply them with the technical expertise required to make it work.

As for AAPL, I wish investors were more convinced of these iPad profit numbers. The stock has been stuck in a rut for two months.

Yep with you 100%. It all makes me feel kind of warm and fuzzy now after all those years watching the MS game playing out the way you eloquently describe.

The stock picked up a tad a few weeks back going from the 300 rut to mid teens rut lol. I grabbed additional 100 shares at 301 (most of mine was obtain sub 100) so happy to see at least that margin. However I agree it is vastly under rated.

BTW I suspect success will breed more success where iPad is concerned as many bring out apps (magazines etc.) only for the iPad deciding why not concentrate on the winner thus reinforcing that fact.
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post #12 of 42
This news is simply incredible. If you consider that MS has basically been a 3-trick pony for decades, unable to push into new markets with unexpected success, and the fact that Apple has done this several times.

They almost make it look easy. Apple sure is enjoying the fruits of spectacular product design and engineering and value pricing!
post #13 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

As for AAPL, I wish investors were more convinced of these iPad profit numbers. The stock has been stuck in a rut for two months.

Apple has increased 13.82% since Oct.4t/10 (278.64) ..... if that's being "stuck in a rut for two months" ....... I'm all for it. DJI = +5.51% .... Nasdaq = +10.29% .... Maybe your standards are a tad high ???
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post #14 of 42
Eat your heart out, Microsoft.

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post #15 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

... To make matters worse, diversification proved to be difficult because the business model they'd grown up with didn't supply them with the technical expertise required to make it work.

As for AAPL, I wish investors were more convinced of these iPad profit numbers. The stock has been stuck in a rut for two months.

Yup. Pee cee makers' only innovation is in cutting corners to reduce costs. They are all trying to push each other off the low-margin cliff of doom.

I think the ultimate solution for Dell and for HP's pee cee division is to be absorbed by Chinese manufacturers. That will be the next major cost-cutting "innovation" since it will eliminate all those overpaid Americans from the payroll.

And as for AAPL stock not moving for two months, just look at Microsoft's stock. It hasn't moved for 10 YEARS.

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post #16 of 42
I wonder if these projections assume a Q1 Verizon iPhone...
Seems to me that it would be hard to project profit growth for the iPhone without knowing that! Can I assume that they are assuming yes?

(I say this not to criticize AT&T--I'm plenty happy and have been with them for a decade--but I literally know a dozen people who will buy a verizon iPhone if one comes out in a few months. I don't know all that many people, so it is another small sample size, but still...)
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post #17 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Copying hardware 'cheaply' has been the key to fortunes in the PC market but they all had a level playing field when it came to the OS, peripherals and all else. This is a different game now, the iPad isn't just amazing hardware (and I think a lot of that is well protected by patents plus much of it is Apple's own) but about the OS and eco system. There is no way the clone makes can compete there so they are to put it politely, royally screwed IMHO.

"Prince McLean" a writer whose stuff is normally interesting but I don't always agree with wrote this on his personal site:

Quote:
People want the iPad, not because its a tablet, but because it offers a strong development platform with an easy to use interface, one that cuts out the complexity and bother of a full sized PC

and
Quote:
All of the vendors who have promised tablet devices […] are in for a surprise when they find out that the tablet market doesn’t actually exist. It’s the iPad market, and it involves being able to run iPad apps.

I have to say I do agree with these couple of quotes. It has become increasingly obvious over the last year that iPad is Apple's vision of future computing: an application playing console where you get in, do productive/fun/creative stuff (delete as applicable) and get out.
post #18 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbee View Post

Apple has increased 13.82% since Oct.4t/10 (278.64) ..... if that's being "stuck in a rut for two months" ....... I'm all for it. DJI = +5.51% .... Nasdaq = +10.29% .... Maybe your standards are a tad high ???

Sorry for using round numbers. Six weeks, to be more precise. AAPL closed at $318 on October 18. Since then, it has literally gone nowhere. It has notably underperformed this week. In a week when the NASDAQ was up 3% and the S&P was up nearly 4%, AAPL rose just 1%. So it's not a question of standards, it's just a somewhat worrying trend, seeing AAPL stuck in a rut and pacing substantially behind the broader market in the short term.
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post #19 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by SockRolid View Post

And as for AAPL stock not moving for two months, just look at Microsoft's stock. It hasn't moved for 10 YEARS.

For a reason, and that reason is called earnings growth. Why AAPL is stuck and has fallen behind the broader market this week defies reasoning. But then, the market often does.
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post #20 of 42
I like the concept of the ipad & all the apps that are being written for it but I can't convince myself to buy one until they up the memory (at least 128mb), add an hdmi port, front facing camera, add at least one usb port & do I dare say get some version of flash working on it. I never thought anyone would want an ipad with just 16meg of memory when these same people want more memory than that in their iphones. i realize Apple loves to under equipped their first releases but I was totally stunned when i saw the 64mb version retail for $800+. I honestly thought that people would be complaining like crazy at the lack of hardware & high retail pricing but boy was I wrong.
post #21 of 42
You sure were wrong. Nobody cares about all those ports, Flash, and other specs except the geekly. Most people just want it to work. Apple understood that -- and this is what makes Apple's approach so different. If you want a more buzzword-compliant tablet, you'll have plenty of other choices from the companies that don't know any other way of designing things than to lard up their products with poorly-implemented features that don't really work.
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post #22 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancelot9201 View Post

I like the concept of the ipad & all the apps that are being written for it but I can't convince myself to buy one until they up the memory (at least 128mb), add an hdmi port, front facing camera, add at least one usb port & do I dare say get some version of flash working on it...

Don't worry, Dell will have exactly what you want--it's just around the corner...
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post #23 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancelot9201 View Post

I like the concept of the ipad & all the apps that are being written for it but I can't convince myself to buy one until they up the memory (at least 128mb), add an hdmi port, front facing camera, add at least one usb port & do I dare say get some version of flash working on it. I never thought anyone would want an ipad with just 16meg of memory when these same people want more memory than that in their iphones. i realize Apple loves to under equipped their first releases but I was totally stunned when i saw the 64mb version retail for $800+. I honestly thought that people would be complaining like crazy at the lack of hardware & high retail pricing but boy was I wrong.

Wow, I remember the days when people were expecting the iPad to sell for $999 or thereabouts (to as high as $2,000 according to some pundits).

I also remember when the iPad was announced at $499 and how *stunned* everyone was at how low the price was.
post #24 of 42
Those of you waiting for the iPad to sport more ports have picked the wrong company and the wrong CEO. Steve jobs dreams of a solid state, completely sealed device. We are headed towards less wires and less holes.

Unless fortunes took a bad enough turn that MS buys Apple. At that point, I would expect parallel ports to show up on the MSiPadZunePlus.
post #25 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Sorry for using round numbers. Six weeks, to be more precise. AAPL closed at $318 on October 18. Since then, it has literally gone nowhere. It has notably underperformed this week. In a week when the NASDAQ was up 3% and the S&P was up nearly 4%, AAPL rose just 1%. So it's not a question of standards, it's just a somewhat worrying trend, seeing AAPL stuck in a rut and pacing substantially behind the broader market in the short term.

Thanks for the more accurate info ... I would say this 'tho .... if anyone is trying to "time" an investment over a short timespan like 6 weeks .... they will probably lose $$$$ more often that not. I can probably take any stock out there and handpick a 6 week timeframe to reach any conclusion I want. The more appropriate action is to think longer term and look for opportunities to be either a buyer and/or a seller as those opportunities arise. If you find that you are reacting to daily swings in the marketplace consistently .... probably means that you either don't have a "strategy" preformed .... or that the stockmarket may not be the place for you. Good luck either way.
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post #26 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbee View Post

Thanks for the more accurate info ... I would say this 'tho .... if anyone is trying to "time" an investment over a short timespan like 6 weeks .... they will probably lose $$$$ more often that not. I can probably take any stock out there and handpick a 6 week timeframe to reach any conclusion I want. The more appropriate action is to think longer term and look for opportunities to be either a buyer and/or a seller as those opportunities arise. If you find that you are reacting to daily swings in the marketplace consistently .... probably means that you either don't have a "strategy" preformed .... or that the stockmarket may not be the place for you. Good luck either way.

I've held AAPL for over 13 years. Is that a long enough term for you? Does that make me sound like a market timer? Due to the fact that I've stuck with this stock for this period of time, by any reasonable definition, I am heavily over-invested. So it is wise for me at least to consider any signs that investor sentiments are beginning to shift away from AAPL. Looking at this week is not hand-picking, it's simply evaluating a market which rallied powerfully, without AAPL participating. I can't remember the last time that happened, can you?
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post #27 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbee View Post

Apple has increased 13.82% since Oct.4t/10 (278.64) ..... if that's being "stuck in a rut for two months" ....... I'm all for it. DJI = +5.51% .... Nasdaq = +10.29% .... Maybe your standards are a tad high ???

That's right. AAPL is still outperforming the S&P 500 over the past six months. However, I do agree that AAPL is undervalued in general. This thing should be trading around $400, not $310.

I picked up additional shares at $240 a few months ago to add to the ones I purchased in 2005.
post #28 of 42
AAPL will inevitably over-expand. The Mac platform (iLife, iWork) is already wearing thin, likely due to a lack of engineers. Nothing substantial has happened for 3 years. The laptops are beautiful though.

The iPad is going like absolute stink. No idea why. It's far from "magical." I have one in the house and hardly touch it, although my elderly father is absolutely thrilled with it. It has its customer, who is not a power user.

Especially worrisome is a huge retail footprint in diminishing-returns tertiary US markets. Go ahead and expand in China and India; Peoria, I dunno.
post #29 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

As for AAPL, I wish investors were more convinced of these iPad profit numbers. The stock has been stuck in a rut for two months.

Agreed, but I don't care about other investors. Shhh... let them nap for a while.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

... Why AAPL is stuck and has fallen behind the broader market this week defies reasoning. But then, the market often does.

Thank God the market doesn't follow reason, otherwise there would be fewer buying opportunities.

Quote:
Originally Posted by newbee View Post

If you find that you are reacting to daily swings in the marketplace consistently .... probably means that you either don't have a "strategy" preformed .... or that the stockmarket may not be the place for you.

Yeah Dr. Millmoss, the market probably isn't for you
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post #30 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

... it's simply evaluating a market which rallied powerfully, without AAPL participating. I can't remember the last time that happened, can you?

It's not that unusual. AAPL often diverges from the broad market. There have been many occasions in which money follows the herd for whatever reason, usually it's some perception of easy money elsewhere. If there's nothing particularly newsworthy from Apple, the price languishes. These occasions present opportunities for modest and fairly safe accumulation.
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post #31 of 42
With its glasses-less 3D display and three HD cameras, no wonder they will continue to be the leading pad producer.
post #32 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwik View Post

AAPL will inevitably over-expand. The Mac platform (iLife, iWork) is already wearing thin, likely due to a lack of engineers. Nothing substantial has happened for 3 years. The laptops are beautiful though.

The iPad is going like absolute stink. No idea why. It's far from "magical." I have one in the house and hardly touch it, although my elderly father is absolutely thrilled with it. It has its customer, who is not a power user.

Especially worrisome is a huge retail footprint in diminishing-returns tertiary US markets. Go ahead and expand in China and India; Peoria, I dunno.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion but some suffer from a reality deficiency. I don't know what "going like absolute stink" means but having the fastest adoption rate ever of any "new technology device" probably argues otherwise. You can also rest assured there are plenty of people more technically adept than you who agree with your father.

But the more arguably fact deficient opinion is that the Mac platform is already wearing thin. Consider the fact that the Mac has outgrown the rest of the PC industry for something like the last 10 quarters in a row. The "halo effect" of the iPod, then iPhone, and now iPad is probably a major factor. The unprecedented success of the physical Apple Stores (as distinct from the online store) worldwide insures a continuing retail channel regardless of the trends in other stores. Finally, the imminent arrival of the Mac App Store will create another tidal wave of developer and consumer activity for OS X Lion and maybe even a little earlier. Apple's current small market share for the Mac gives it a huge opportunity for growth.
post #33 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I've held AAPL for over 13 years. Is that a long enough term for you? Does that make me sound like a market timer? Due to the fact that I've stuck with this stock for this period of time, by any reasonable definition, I am heavily over-invested. So it is wise for me at least to consider any signs that investor sentiments are beginning to shift away from AAPL. Looking at this week is not hand-picking, it's simply evaluating a market which rallied powerfully, without AAPL participating. I can't remember the last time that happened, can you?

Relax man ... don't have a cow. If you read my post carefully, you'll note that I was speaking in generalities, not you specifically. That's why I used terms like: "if anyone" .... "they will probably".

It would be presumptuous of me, or anyone, to give any individual financial advice without knowing their specific circumstances. It would not do me any good, for instance, in knowing that you've held stock in Apple for 13 years without knowing such things as: Did you accumulate all your shares at once or have you built up a supply over the years ... have you a "core position" that you leave alone while you go in and out of the market when beneficial with the rest of your holdings or do you consider all of your Apple stock as a "core position"..... etc, etc. ...

For the record, I don't want you to answer these questions, as they are none of my business, but you can see, I hope, why I would not attempt to "advise you".

If you took my post as "advice" to you personally, sorry for the misunderstanding ... but please, lighten up a little.

As to Apple not "following the herd" ... if you do a google finance comparison chart for Apple, DJI and Nasdaq for the last few years you'll see that Apple has separated from the herd several times but really started to separate again in May of this year, so to see it start to get closer to the pack this last 6 weeks is not that unusual, imo. I believe, rightly or wrongly, that Apple will start to show some real strength as we move into the heavy retail buying season and as they get closer to reporting their next quarter.

The one large negative, for me, is that Apple is heavily favored by the institutional crowd and, for the most part, they like to have a strong balance at year end, to justify bonus and commissions, etc. .... so at times they will sell off their winners and take profits off the table to make their books look better..... that would dampen the prices somewhat.

For me personally, I'll most likely cut my position in half in late Dec, early Jan. and look for buying opportunities going into the summer. Good luck with whatever you decide to do.
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post #34 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancelot9201 View Post

I like the concept of the ipad & all the apps that are being written for it but I can't convince myself to buy one until they up the memory (at least 128mb), add an hdmi port, front facing camera, add at least one usb port & do I dare say get some version of flash working on it. I never thought anyone would want an ipad with just 16meg of memory when these same people want more memory than that in their iphones. i realize Apple loves to under equipped their first releases but I was totally stunned when i saw the 64mb version retail for $800+. I honestly thought that people would be complaining like crazy at the lack of hardware & high retail pricing but boy was I wrong.

Are you serious Flash! I got rid of this crock of s@(t on my MBP. Now it no longer gives me 3rd degree burns and I have a much speedier response time, and no annoying ads.
Jobs was adamant that it will never appear, so far the proof is in the pudding.
You sound like you have shares in Adobe.
post #35 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwik View Post

AAPL will inevitably over-expand. The Mac platform (iLife, iWork) is already wearing thin, likely due to a lack of engineers. Nothing substantial has happened for 3 years. The laptops are beautiful though.

The iPad is going like absolute stink. No idea why. It's far from "magical." I have one in the house and hardly touch it, although my elderly father is absolutely thrilled with it. It has its customer, who is not a power user.

Especially worrisome is a huge retail footprint in diminishing-returns tertiary US markets. Go ahead and expand in China and India; Peoria, I dunno.

apple is doomed

60 percent of all humans have no direct access to apple devices .
YET.

So AAPL is innovate in a extreme way of each new device gets all the new upgrades . and so forth .
so the ipad got all the cool MBP STUFF AND MBA got all the innovative stuff from the ipad .
looks like design teams create for 4 platforms at once ,
aapl is one
andriod is scores of companies


APPLE is DOOM

as for i-life > iworks and the rest we just got some belated upgrades and more will come .



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post #36 of 42
I keep hearing how micro-payments are supposed to take off in 2011 and payments through a persons cell phone are something that either already is ( in parts of Asia ) or soon will possible. Now Apple already processes the payments for apps, what if they positioned the iPhone as a micro-payment client, where Apple processed the payments effectively making it so that a person wants a coffee and pays for it through their phone. Apple takes a processing fee. Something like that would require a large amount of cash to start, Apple has $51 billion, and the ability to process dozens of transactions per phone per day, massive data centers. Gee I wonder how long it would take Appke to make back that $51 billion investment? Especially when everything with an iOS or a MacOS can be used to buy stuff, iPads, iPhones, being the most logical, with iPod touchs a close third. My guess is that with a small processing fee on every transaction, and remember we are talking about Asia, Apple could make back that $51 billion in less than a couple years. But they may not need to back that operation with the whole $51 billion, maybe only need to utilize much less.

Apparently this could be the crux of Apples' interest in online publishing. That would fit the Apple model, swimming up stream, instead of providing something for free charge people for it and provide the customers with greater value, and the advertisers with access a more targeted audience.
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post #37 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by john galt View Post

It's not that unusual. AAPL often diverges from the broad market. There have been many occasions in which money follows the herd for whatever reason, usually it's some perception of easy money elsewhere. If there's nothing particularly newsworthy from Apple, the price languishes. These occasions present opportunities for modest and fairly safe accumulation.

Not often, in my experience, at least not recently on the downside. I suspect that investors are still shaking off the hangover from the last earnings announcement, and won't get happy again until the next one -- provided Apple can at least meet expectations for iPad sales. Analyst enthusiasm doesn't seem to be helping, which is not typical behavior for this stock.

Quote:
Originally Posted by newbee View Post

Relax man ... don't have a cow. If you read my post carefully, you'll note that I was speaking in generalities, not you specifically. That's why I used terms like: "if anyone" .... "they will probably".

It would be presumptuous of me, or anyone, to give any individual financial advice without knowing their specific circumstances. It would not do me any good, for instance, in knowing that you've held stock in Apple for 13 years without knowing such things as: Did you accumulate all your shares at once or have you built up a supply over the years ... have you a "core position" that you leave alone while you go in and out of the market when beneficial with the rest of your holdings or do you consider all of your Apple stock as a "core position"..... etc, etc. ...

For the record, I don't want you to answer these questions, as they are none of my business, but you can see, I hope, why I would not attempt to "advise you".

If you took my post as "advice" to you personally, sorry for the misunderstanding ... but please, lighten up a little.

As to Apple not "following the herd" ... if you do a google finance comparison chart for Apple, DJI and Nasdaq for the last few years you'll see that Apple has separated from the herd several times but really started to separate again in May of this year, so to see it start to get closer to the pack this last 6 weeks is not that unusual, imo. I believe, rightly or wrongly, that Apple will start to show some real strength as we move into the heavy retail buying season and as they get closer to reporting their next quarter.

The one large negative, for me, is that Apple is heavily favored by the institutional crowd and, for the most part, they like to have a strong balance at year end, to justify bonus and commissions, etc. .... so at times they will sell off their winners and take profits off the table to make their books look better..... that would dampen the prices somewhat.

For me personally, I'll most likely cut my position in half in late Dec, early Jan. and look for buying opportunities going into the summer. Good luck with whatever you decide to do.

I read your post carefully, and it was phrased as a response to mine. So, no cows in view from here. No plausible deniability from you either. But never mind, to the subject: If you will read my post (care not even required) you will note that I have only referred to the last six weeks when AAPL has gone flat, and to the last five days, when AAPL failed to participate in a broad market rally. Institutional position adjustments typically occur at the end of quarters, which early December is not. This leaves us trying to explain it, if we're interested.

I don't ask for investing advice, and I don't give any. I also don't offer predictions -- not on these boards, not anywhere. I also don't need to be directed to studying AAPL's chart, and it's frankly a little insulting that you've suggested it, even knowing now how long I've been investing. I also don't talk about my investing strategy, if only because it's nobody's business but my own, specific to my needs, and even to disclose it would imply making investment advice. The only point I was interesting in discussing was the one I raised.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #38 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I read your post carefully, and it was phrased as a response to mine

It was posted in response to you ... that's not the same as being phrased

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

No plausible deniability from you either

None required
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Institutional position adjustments typically occur at the end of quarters, which early December is not.

somewhat true, as more people guess/predict on how healthy the previous quarter was ... but you are failing to recognize the fact that a lot of performance bonus $$ are paid at the end of a calendar year .... which December is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I have only referred to the last six weeks when AAPL has gone flat, and to the last five days, when AAPL failed to participate in a broad market rally.

Again ... to try and "read something" into a 5 day or 6 week timeframe while ignoring what happened in the previous 6 to 12 months is a disaster waiting to happen. Apple broke away from the herd in a big way since May .... it is now "taking a breather", otherwise known as "taking some profit off of the table" and allowing the rest of the herd to somewhat catch back up with it. Is that something to worry about? .... maybe, if you don't have an exit strategy all ready planned , presumably when you bought the stock. As I said before .... day to day gyrations in the stock market will drive you crazy ... if you don't have a predetermined strategy to guide you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I don't ask for investing advice, and I don't give any. I also don't offer predictions

"I suspect that investors are still shaking off the hangover from the last earnings announcement, and won't get happy again until the next one. ....... hmmmmm I dunno .... starting to look like a prediction here, boss.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

The only point I was interesting in discussing was the one I raised.

Interesting choice of words, if you're interested.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I also don't need to be directed to studying AAPL's chart

Apparently you do. imho.

To wind this up I'll say only this. You're starting to sound like the wife who asks her husband: "Does this dress make me look fat" ? If you don't want an answer ... don't ask the question. Now I'll do what most smart husbands do when confronted with "the question" .... I'l ignore it and go out for a coffee.
Apple, bigger than Google, ..... bigger than Microsoft,   The universe is unfolding as it should. Thanks, Apple.
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Apple, bigger than Google, ..... bigger than Microsoft,   The universe is unfolding as it should. Thanks, Apple.
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post #39 of 42
Everything about your post is insulting. Let me know when or if you're interested in actual discussion.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #40 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I can hardly wait to see what surprises the next gen iPad will bring to the table. Apple knows that it will have drive sales to new levels, I'm sure the market is not even close to being saturated. It'll be interesting to see if they keep gen one on the shelves at a lower price point; something tells me they won't for fear that it would cannibalize the new model.
(forgive there being no silly comment about DaHarder)


Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I can hardly wait to see what surprises the next gen iPad will bring to the table. Apple knows that it will have drive sales to new levels, I'm sure the market is not even close to being saturated. It'll be interesting to see if they keep gen one on the shelves at a lower price point; something tells me they won't for fear that it would cannibalize the new model.
(forgive there being no silly comment about DaHarder)


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