or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › Piper: Android will be 'tested' once Apple brings iPhone to Verizon
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Piper: Android will be 'tested' once Apple brings iPhone to Verizon

post #1 of 78
Thread Starter 
Android's growth in the U.S. market will be put to the test if the iPhone arrives on Verizon's network in early 2011 as expected, one analyst believes.

Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray on Tuesday sent investors a list of a dozen "unanswered questions" pertaining to Apple. One of those questions he addressed was whether and when the iPhone will become available on the Verizon network.

Munster said he believes Apple has made two key mistakes with the iPhone: not subsidizing the original model (an issue that was quickly addressed), and limiting the handset to AT&T in the U.S. The analyst said he believes AT&T's exclusivity has limited demand for the iPhone in the U.S.

But Munster believes that Apple will make the iPhone available on Verizon's network in the first half of 2011, as the U.S. is the only remaining country out of 89 where an exclusivity agreement is in place. When the iPhone does go to Verizon, he believes it could affect the momentous growth of Google's Android mobile operating system.

"Currently, Android phones outsell iPhones in the U.S., but we believe when Verizon gets the iPhone that trend could be reversed," Munster said. "As an example, in countries where the iPhone is available on multiple carriers and competes with Android, we see the iPhone outselling Android.

"The greatest factor in the success of Android has been Verizon. Customers are loyal to their carrier, and once Verizon gets the iPhone, we believe Android's success in the U.S. will be tested."

Still, Android is the iPhone's most significant competition in the smartphone space, in Munster's eyes. He said that Research in Motion and its BlackBerry line remain an "important player," but the fast market share gains of Apple and Android make them more direct competitors.

Numerous mainstream media outlets have stated that Apple and Verizon have reached a deal to sell the iPhone on the carrier's CDMA network starting in early 2011. This week, another report indicated that Verizon could even pay Apple to keep the iPhone away from other major U.S. carriers T-Mobile and Sprint.

Munster also said Tuesday that he expects Apple to move toward an increasingly subsidized model with the iPad in the future. He said that AT&T could increase its monthly data plan from $25 per month to $35 per month and decrease the cost of the 16GB 3G iPad from $629 to $389 with a two-year contract.

For both the iPhone and iPad, he said he believes component supplies are improving, which should lead to better stock of both devices around the world. Apple is believed to have ramped up its capacity for both the iPhone and iPad ahead of the holidays, though availability still remains limited in some areas.
post #2 of 78
Jings - hardly sticking his neck out through wild predictions there...
post #3 of 78
We can look to the articles that show that Android's growth has already slowed or possibly stopped. In August, Schmitt stated that there were more than 200,000 new Android phone activations a day. Now, they just released that Android "devices", including tablets such as the Samsung Galaxy, have an activation of 1.5 million a week, or about 214,000 a day.

That's no growth at all. It's also strange. I've been expecting Android's growth to slow for some time, but not this much, and not this soon. Assuming the numbers are correct, and since they were released by Google, they should be, the release of the iPhone on Verizon, when it happens, should result in a decrease in Android sales. This is surprising, and interesting. Has Android hit its peak so soon?

And if so, what does that mean for WP7? I think it would help MS, and RIM.
post #4 of 78
"But Munster believes that Apple will make the iPhone available on Verizon's network in the first half of 2010, as the U.S. is the only remaining country out of 89 where an exclusivity agreement is in place."

A year late there buddy.
post #5 of 78
The iPhone will see the biggest explosion of sales once released to Verizon because of the high demand
post #6 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

... Customers are loyal to their carrier, ...

I would say that "customers are afraid of changing carriers," more.

It's kind of amusing IMO how carriers do every underhanded trick in the book to lock you in and force you to stay, up to and including cash penalties (which would be illegal in most other businesses), and then the pundits turn around and talk about how "loyal" the customers are.
post #7 of 78
This is the dude that says apple will make TV sets ... right?
post #8 of 78
Duh?!
post #9 of 78
Nothing is news here. This is just a chance for financial companies to grandstand and get free advertisement.
post #10 of 78
Gene Munster with one of the worst track records for predicting IPHONE related events or news.
Munster is merely stating his opinion not substantiated by any facts or news.
Of course Verizon selling the IPHONE will give customers another choice other than Android and will test peoples preference. Other than that whats the point of his statement????
post #11 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

We can look to the articles that show that Android's growth has already slowed or possibly stopped. In August, Schmitt stated that there were more than 200,000 new Android phone activations a day. Now, they just released that Android "devices", including tablets such as the Samsung Galaxy, have an activation of 1.5 million a week, or about 214,000 a day.

That's no growth at all. It's also strange. I've been expecting Android's growth to slow for some time, but not this much, and not this soon. Assuming the numbers are correct, and since they were released by Google, they should be, the release of the iPhone on Verizon, when it happens, should result in a decrease in Android sales. This is surprising, and interesting. Has Android hit its peak so soon?

And if so, what does that mean for WP7? I think it would help MS, and RIM.

Android's growth in the US has largely been about discounts and special offers. When you give something away for free you tend to see spectacular growth over the short-term but it's not robust. It can easily stall or reverse.
post #12 of 78
The exclusivity clause is not really a mistake. Apple had to give up something to lure the carrier to cede unprecedented control over the device to Apple. Turns out that yielding that control to Apple is good for the carrier because Apple is meticulous about avoiding features that only hobble the device and annoy the user.

Now if Apple continues to have iPhone exclusivity deals after the current commitments expire, then that would be a mistake.
post #13 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInder

[Munster] said he believes AT&T's exclusivity has limited demand for the iPhone in the U.S.

I cant see how that is an issue when the iPhone demand is still outstripping supply. Still, I think next year is the time for CDMA-based iPhone to arrive.


Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

We can look to the articles that show that Android's growth has already slowed or possibly stopped. In August, Schmitt stated that there were more than 200,000 new Android phone activations a day. Now, they just released that Android "devices", including tablets such as the Samsung Galaxy, have an activation of 1.5 million a week, or about 214,000 a day.

That's no growth at all. It's also strange. I've been expecting Android's growth to slow for some time, but not this much, and not this soon. Assuming the numbers are correct, and since they were released by Google, they should be, the release of the iPhone on Verizon, when it happens, should result in a decrease in Android sales. This is surprising, and interesting. Has Android hit its peak so soon?

And if so, what does that mean for WP7? I think it would help MS, and RIM.

Slowing is to be expecting, but peaking isnt. Something seems very odd about a free smartphone OS found on dozens of selling models worldwide for a great range of price plateauing when the smartphone market still moving fast. Werent the Black Friday reports showing strong smartphone sales, maybe these activations arent going to show up until after Christmas. I feel some key info is missing.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #14 of 78
I think many of us have been saying this for some time. The iPhone only has access to ~32% of the mobile phone users in the United States (to be fair, I'm of the opinion that the iPhone built many of those users). Android has access to nearly 100% of the market.

The current situation looks like:

iPhone on AT&T (~32% of the market)

- vs -

Android on AT&T (~32% of the market)
Android on Verizon (~32% of the market)
Android on Sprint Nextel (~17% of the market)
Android on T-Mobile USA (~12% of the market)

So, I think we will see an amazing flood of iPhone activity when you essentially double the audience.

It would be very interesting to see how many android users are on AT&T. That is the only comparison worth mentioning.
post #15 of 78
Quote:
CONSUMER REPORTS: AT&T NAMED WORST CELL-PHONE SERVICE PROVIDER

.....

No-Contract Service

More than 90 percent of Consumer Reports survey respondents' phones were serviced under a contract. Those with no-contract cell-phone service said they made far fewer calls and rarely used data, and perhaps due to their simpler needs were more satisfied overall. Among no-contract service providers, Consumer Cellular scored highest for satisfaction followed by TracFone. AT&T GoPhone was the worst provider in this category receiving relatively low marks for value and voice service.

No-contract service is generally most suitable for light use, but options are expanding beyond bare-bones basics. There are now more conventional phones that provide data service without a contract, a change from the past. And carriers that specialize in no-contract service, including Virgin Mobile and Boost Mobile are offering more smart phones. Verizon and T-Mobile now offer most of their phones, smart and regular with or without a contract, but customers will pay more for the device itself.


http://m.gizmodo.com/5707431/att-fin...nsumer-reports


If Verison has a "No contract" option for the iPhone, I'm seriously considering getting one even though I like the Nexus S better but uses overloaded and no "No contract" AT&T GSM in the US.

I've been very pleased with my "No contract" phone and Google Voice, with one phone number it rings on all phones (VOIP, cell, landlines) and I pick up the one that is the most suitable, cost, security, privacy etc.

A busy month, with a lot of cell use, I pay about $40, otherwise it's mostly $10 a month. I'd be glad to pay more upfront for the phone, as I tend to keep my devices for quite some time and take good care of them so they last longer than normal 2 year contracts and rapid upgrade cycles. So why should I have to keep paying for the phone on the next contract when I can use that money for a new computer instead?

I would like one device though, with smart features, the Nexus S is supposedly ready for VOIP, I guess it just needs a app to get it going I'm assuming. Like it to be seamless and customizable though with one device.

Sigh
post #16 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I cant see how that is an issue when the iPhone demand is still outstripping supply. Still, I think next year is the time for CDMA-based iPhone to arrive....

Agreed. If exclusivity was a "mistake," a bigger one would be having to agree to the carriers demands.

The iPhone might not have even got off the ground without the AT&T exclusive, and the control that Apple wrested from them in exchange for that exclusivity.
post #17 of 78
[QUOTE=solipsism;1764555Something seems very odd about a free smartphone OS found on dozens of selling models worldwide for a great range of price plateauing when the smartphone market still moving fast. Weren’t the Black Friday reports showing strong smartphone sales, maybe these activations aren’t going to show up until after Christmas. I feel some key info is missing.[/QUOTE]

Something odd for sure, but I can't buy into Black Friday being a big part; a physical phone makes a difficult gift, as the new unit is generally activated when it leaves the store (from the cell phone perspective). The old phone ceases to work...

Was in Hong Kong a couple weeks back, and looking at the iPhones everywhere (including a waiter at the hotel pool!), I know the iPhone is up for some great growth. But, looking at the US, it seems like the numbers that are always quoted about Android's surge make sense. I think there is a significant gap somewhere between what we hear from Google and what we hear from Apple, but I can't even begin to understand how there could possibly be that much play.

The only thing I can think of is that there are a lot of shipped, unsold units in the channel. But that doesn't seem to pass the smell test when you start talking about 5-10 million units missing.
post #18 of 78
They'll both do well.
post #19 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghostface147 View Post

They'll both do well.

Yes but who will be crowned CHAMPION!?
post #20 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I cant see how that is an issue when the iPhone demand is still outstripping supply. Still, I think next year is the time for CDMA-based iPhone to arrive.

Precisely. That's the issue with some analysts' US-centric perspective. From a worldwide point of view Apple continues to have difficulty meeting iPhone demand. Limiting demand in the US isn't necessarily bad, and might even be deliberate.

I too believe that 2011 is likely the year for the exclusivity to break open. I also think it may be the right time, neither too late nor too early.
post #21 of 78
Rational buyers will opt for an Andriod tablet due to it's open nature.
post #22 of 78
Is it even legal for Verizon and Apple to enter into some financial agreement to keep the iPhone away from other carriers? It sounds like this would be open to all sorts of legal challenges.
post #23 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevetim View Post

This is the dude that says apple will make TV sets ... right?

Absolutely. The current Apple TV $99 device will morph and merge into the Apple TV cinema display-like unit with a nice shiny metal Apple logo centered underneath the display. It'll be optimized for HD and internet and wifi (Air display) so that all content can flow to the TV from cable/broadband, and from the TV to your computer/mobile devices. My predicted introduction to market... 1H2013. Question is, what flavor(s) of unit size will it be and can it replace my 63" plasma now?
post #24 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Rational buyers will opt for an Andriod tablet due to it's open nature.

Open for vendors, who can then lock it down in any way they wish, which includes, but is not limited to, added crapware that users cant remove. Sounds like a winning plan.

Do you care to explain why those that buy iOS or WP7-based devices arent rational?
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #25 of 78
I am ready for a VZW iPhone.
Been using the Droid X since release, its a good phone but not as polished as the iPhone.

One thing I will miss by going back to iOS from Android is being able to drag and drop files onto the phone. But its a small price to pay.

2010 MacBook Pro 13, 2.66
Dell XPS 420 - Gaming PC
iPhone 3G 8GB
iPhone 4 on StraightTalk

Reply

2010 MacBook Pro 13, 2.66
Dell XPS 420 - Gaming PC
iPhone 3G 8GB
iPhone 4 on StraightTalk

Reply
post #26 of 78
"Currently, Android phones outsell iPhones in the U.S., but we believe when Verizon gets the iPhone that trend could be reversed,"

Munster said. "As an example, in countries where the iPhone is available on multiple carriers and competes with Android, we see the iPhone outselling Android.
post #27 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisNH View Post

Is it even legal for Verizon and Apple to enter into some financial agreement to keep the iPhone away from other carriers? It sounds like this would be open to all sorts of legal challenges.

Yes it's totally legal. Happens with nearly every popular phone, every time it is released.
post #28 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"Currently, Android phones outsell iPhones in the U.S., but we believe when Verizon gets the iPhone that trend could be reversed," Munster said. "As an example, in countries where the iPhone is available on multiple carriers and competes with Android, we see the iPhone outselling Android."

This is not true, at least not always. Android phones outsell the iPhone in parts of Europe e.g. UK where the iPhone is available on all carriers, albeit by a much smaller margin than in the USA.
post #29 of 78
In the US and other countries Android phones are widely known as CRAPPY, 2nd-rate copy cat version of the iPhone.
post #30 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rind View Post

I am ready for a VZW iPhone.
Been using the Droid X since release, its a good phone but not as polished as the iPhone.

One thing I will miss by going back to iOS from Android is being able to drag and drop files onto the phone. But its a small price to pay.

iTunes 9.x and iOS 4.0 have drag-n-drop capabilities. It does require that you use iTunes as an intermediary, but compared to using Mac OS X Finder of Windows Explorer Id say this is easier to deal with as it only shows the apps with developer set file storage. I use this feature for playing AVIs on my iPhone and iPad, without first needing to do a conversion to an MP4-based codec.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #31 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevt View Post

This is not true, at least not always. Android phones outsell the iPhone in parts of Europe e.g. UK where the iPhone is available on all carriers, albeit by a much smaller margin than in the USA.

I need to see some proof.
post #32 of 78
my prediction is that people with an iphone on at&t that will switch to an iphone on verizon will eventually realize how good they had it on at&t
post #33 of 78
Yet another analyst saying Android will be tested while ignoring the biggest test it will face over the next little while. That test is WP7, which directly competes against Android as a smartphone OS platform that manufacturers can make use of.

Android thrives on being available on a diverse selection of handsets. If WP7 doesn't flop, which it could, it will provide an alternative platform for manufacturers to use. If WP7 manages to split manufacturer interest between WP7 and Android, the diversity of available Android options will be diminished and growth will be slowed/stalled.

Look at it this way:
Apple produces their own phones and have carved out their piece of the smartphone market.
RIM produces their own phones and have carved out their piece of the smartphone market.
Nokia makes their own phones, but have never really penetrated the North American smartphone market.
Google relies on third party manufacturers for their share of the smartphone market and WP7 presents an alternative to Android for those manufacturers to use.

Will Verizon getting the iPhone help Apples sales and market share? Most definitely. Will it hurt Android? Not that much. The real threats to Android are operating systems that target the same piece of the pie that Android occupies (devices made by manufacturers that do not supply their own OS). Android represents the best OS available to these manufacturers, if that ever changes, Androids marketshare will tank. I'm not suggesting WP7 is better in any way, or that Androids marketshare is going to tank, but WP7 does represent a competitor for manufacturer interest which makes it a much larger potential threat than Apple. I guess WP7 vs Android doesn't make for good headlines though.
The key to enjoying these forums: User CP -> Edit Ignore List
Reply
The key to enjoying these forums: User CP -> Edit Ignore List
Reply
post #34 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

We can look to the articles that show that Android's growth has already slowed or possibly stopped. In August, Schmitt stated that there were more than 200,000 new Android phone activations a day. Now, they just released that Android "devices", including tablets such as the Samsung Galaxy, have an activation of 1.5 million a week, or about 214,000 a day.

That's no growth at all. It's also strange. I've been expecting Android's growth to slow for some time, but not this much, and not this soon. Assuming the numbers are correct, and since they were released by Google, they should be, the release of the iPhone on Verizon, when it happens, should result in a decrease in Android sales. This is surprising, and interesting. Has Android hit its peak so soon?

Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Slowing is to be expecting, but peaking isn’t. Something seems very odd about a free smartphone OS found on dozens of selling models worldwide for a great range of price plateauing when the smartphone market still moving fast. Weren’t the Black Friday reports showing strong smartphone sales, maybe these activations aren’t going to show up until after Christmas. I feel some key info is missing.


Yeah, something seems to be wrong with those numbers. Especially if you include the Galaxy Tab selling 1 million units in 60 days == 16,667 per day.

If that is true, then Android phone activations have actual fallen from 214,000 per day to 197,333 per day.

That doesn't seem possible without some headlines from gadfly analysts saying that Android is doomed.

.
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
Reply
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
Reply
post #35 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by reklss41 View Post

my prediction is that people with an iphone on at&t that will switch to an iphone on verizon will eventually realize how good they had it on at&t

"Why iPhone"... Hmmm?
Reply
"Why iPhone"... Hmmm?
Reply
post #36 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Rational buyers will opt for an Andriod tablet due to it's open nature.

Andy Rubin of Google defends the craplets that manufacturers and carriers install on Android devices that can't be removed.

"Thats the nature of open," Rubin said. "Thats actually a feature of Android."

It's been widely reported. Just Google (oh the irony) "Rubin defends craplets".

Oh, and don't try to change the subject. We're talking about iPhone on Verizon here. iPhone is set to invade Android's protected VZ enclave (walled weedpatch?) And it's going to hurt Android. Of course iPhone won't "kill" Android entirely. It will, however, drastically cut Android sales.

The Oracle lawsuit will do the actual killing of Android. It has merit (clear violation of the Java license agreement, not just patent mudslinging), there is legal precedent (Microsoft paid Sun $20 million for a similarly open-and-shut violation), and Larry Ellison has zero interest in making a few bucks with an out-of-court settlement. No, he's seeking an injunction against any and all devices that run Android. In the language of the lawsuit, they will be "impounded and destroyed."

Sent from my iPhone Simulator

Reply

Sent from my iPhone Simulator

Reply
post #37 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by SockRolid View Post

Andy Rubin of Google defends the craplets that manufacturers and carriers install on Android devices that can't be removed.

"Thats the nature of open," Rubin said. "Thats actually a feature of Android."

It's been widely reported. Just Google (oh the irony) "Rubin defends craplets".

Oh, and don't try to change the subject. We're talking about iPhone on Verizon here. iPhone is set to invade Android's protected VZ enclave (walled weedpatch?) And it's going to hurt Android. Of course iPhone won't "kill" Android entirely. It will, however, drastically cut Android sales.

The Oracle lawsuit will do the actual killing of Android. It has merit (clear violation of the Java license agreement, not just patent mudslinging), there is legal precedent (Microsoft paid Sun $20 million for a similarly open-and-shut violation), and Larry Ellison has zero interest in making a few bucks with an out-of-court settlement. No, he's seeking an injunction against any and all devices that run Android. In the language of the lawsuit, they will be "impounded and destroyed."

My... My, you do sound angry.
"Why iPhone"... Hmmm?
Reply
"Why iPhone"... Hmmm?
Reply
post #38 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by SockRolid View Post

Andy Rubin of Google defends the craplets that manufacturers and carriers install on Android devices that can't be removed.

"Thats the nature of open," Rubin said. "Thats actually a feature of Android."

It's been widely reported. Just Google (oh the irony) "Rubin defends craplets".

Oh, and don't try to change the subject. We're talking about iPhone on Verizon here. iPhone is set to invade Android's protected VZ enclave (walled weedpatch?) And it's going to hurt Android. Of course iPhone won't "kill" Android entirely. It will, however, drastically cut Android sales.

The Oracle lawsuit will do the actual killing of Android. It has merit (clear violation of the Java license agreement, not just patent mudslinging), there is legal precedent (Microsoft paid Sun $20 million for a similarly open-and-shut violation), and Larry Ellison has zero interest in making a few bucks with an out-of-court settlement. No, he's seeking an injunction against any and all devices that run Android. In the language of the lawsuit, they will be "impounded and destroyed."


hah! nice!
post #39 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by SockRolid View Post

Andy Rubin of Google defends the craplets that manufacturers and carriers install on Android devices that can't be removed.

"Thats the nature of open," Rubin said. "Thats actually a feature of Android."

It's been widely reported. Just Google (oh the irony) "Rubin defends craplets".

Oh, and don't try to change the subject. We're talking about iPhone on Verizon here. iPhone is set to invade Android's protected VZ enclave (walled weedpatch?) And it's going to hurt Android. Of course iPhone won't "kill" Android entirely. It will, however, drastically cut Android sales.

The Oracle lawsuit will do the actual killing of Android. It has merit (clear violation of the Java license agreement, not just patent mudslinging), there is legal precedent (Microsoft paid Sun $20 million for a similarly open-and-shut violation), and Larry Ellison has zero interest in making a few bucks with an out-of-court settlement. No, he's seeking an injunction against any and all devices that run Android. In the language of the lawsuit, they will be "impounded and destroyed."

Good post.
post #40 of 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by SockRolid View Post

Andy Rubin of Google defends the craplets that manufacturers and carriers install on Android devices that can't be removed.

"Thats the nature of open," Rubin said. "Thats actually a feature of Android."

They can be removed. You have to jump through a few hoops, but you can get rid of the software. It sucks lol
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: iPhone
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › Piper: Android will be 'tested' once Apple brings iPhone to Verizon