Originally Posted by samab
I called that article complete BS.
Google had been saying that their activation to be in the 200K since August, but this guy suddenly 4 months later said that their tracking from all the way back to June had only 100K.
If their number from June was so solid, then they should have contested Google's claim of 200K back in August.
All the numbers you question in come from Google:
1) In June, after Google released the source code for Android 2.2, code-named "Froyo," Rubin said the company was activating roughly 160,000 phones daily.
2) In August, Google CEO Eric Schmidt upped the number to 200,000 daily Android activations.
3) engineering vice president and Android development director Andy Rubin tweeted Thursday that more than 300,000 Android phones are activated daily.
So, if you are calling BS, you are saying that Google is giving BS numbers!
What we don't know is:
-- What is an activation?
-- Is an activation for smart phones only or any device (feature phone, tablet, smartphone, other)?
-- When does it occur?
-- Can a unique device be activated multiple times - say, with each OS upgrade?
The article suggests that Activation may take place when the phones are shipped to resellers, rather than sold through to end users:
"Seems like a stretch," said Frost & Sullivan analyst Michael Jude, who added the figure "may represent the number of phones being shipped from manufacturers, many of which end up in warehouses rather than in people's pockets."
If this is true, than Google's "Activation" numbers represent the number manufactured, not the number bought (and put into use) by end users.
I have no personal experience with Google activation, so I don't know what it comprises or how it is tallied.
1) One way to tally would be to capture the unique device ID only
the first time it is activated by a Carrier -- sold to an end user and put into operation. Resale of the device and/or reactivation is not tallied.
2) Another way is to tally each time an OS version (initial or upgrade) is installed on a device -- multiple activations per device.
3) A third way would be for the manufacturer to provide a list of unique Device IDs to Google, each time it ships product to the resellers.
The third way is the easiest for the manufacturer and Google. This is the last time the manufacturer has all the device IDs for an order in a single place (the manifest). The manufacturer could simple send a file of Device IDs to Google; Google could "Activate" them in Googles records (database). and tally them as activated.
The article implies that something like the above (activate upon shipment to the reseller) is happening.
Certainly, Apple could do similar things. But since they manufacture the devices, and the numbers influence investors, they have to be much more careful. If Jobs, or another Apple executive, publish numbers that cannot be backed-up, they open Apple, and themselves, to investigation and shareholder lawsuits.
If Schmidt, Rubin, et al, just sum numbers provided by the manufacturers, resellers, and/or carriers -- they have no responsibility for those numbers (other than summing them correctly).
Simply stated (for device sales/activations);
When Apple supplies numbers, they are Apple's numbers -- and Apple is responsible for them.
When Google supplies numbers, they, likely, are the numbers from other sources -- Google has no responsibility for the numbers.