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Report: Verizon expected to eat up AT&T iPhone sales, add 14%

post #1 of 45
Thread Starter 
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster expects Apple to sell just 2.5 million additional iPhones in the US by adding Verizon as a carrier early next year, bringing 2011's US iPhone sales to 20 million, with Verizon's sales largely coming at the expense of AT&T.

In a research note provided to AppleInsider, Munster wrote that his firm's numbers have "baked in" the assumption that Apple will release the iPhone on Verizon in early to mid 2011, currently modeled by Piper Jaffray to occur midway through the March quarter.

Given AT&T's 5.2 million iPhones sold in the third quarter 2010, which Piper Jaffray estimated to be 80 percent of all of AT&T's smartphones sold, Munster said the iPhone "has found continued success despite increased competition in the smartphone category and grew 65 percent year over year at AT&T" in that most recent quarter.

Munster believes he is conservatively modeling iPhone sales at Verizon to assume that the iPhone will make up a smaller proportion of that carrier's smartphone mix than it does at AT&T. The firm estimates Verizon will sell about 25 million smartphones in 2011, and that just 36 percent, or 9 million, will be iPhones.

Munster expects the majority of those Verizon iPhones to be switchers from AT&T, suggesting that the addition of Verizon will only result in 2.5 million more US iPhones sold in 2011, or roughly 14 percent more than Apple could sell at AT&T alone.

The report models AT&T selling 17.5 million iPhones next year were it to have no competition with Verizon; with both carriers selling iPhones, Munster believes AT&T will sell 11 million and Verizon will sell 9 million. He also notes that these figures "may be conservative."

This calendar year, AT&T is expected to have sold 15.6 million iPhones, or 34 percent of those sold globally. With Munster's projection of sales cannibalization from Verizon, AT&T's estimated 11 million iPhone sales would reduce it to being just 17 percent of worldwide iPhone units. Global sales of the iPhone are expected to grow from this year's 46.3 million total to 63 million in 2011.

In 2012, Munster estimates Apple will sell a total of 78.3 million iPhones, with AT&T and Verizon both selling around 14 million each, for equal 18 percent shares of the worldwide figure.

Conservative estimates for Verizon's iPhone

Other analysts have provided an even weaker outlook for a Verizon iPhone launch, according to a recent report by Philip Elmer-DeWitt of Fortune.

That report noted that BMO Capital Markets estimates Apple would only sell 8 million iPhones with Verizon, while Barclays Capital's James Ratcliffe predicted 9 million, and Merrill Lynch's Scott Craig estimated sales of "at least ten million units at Verizon." Stifel Nicolaus' Doug Reid thinks Apple will only sell less than a million more iPhones in total by partnering with Verizon next year.

Craig at Merrill Lynch did note that Apple has seen much better results in other markets where it has expanded beyond exclusivity with a single carrier. "Historically, when the iPhone has been added to a second carrier in a country (France, Norway, Canada, UK, etc)," Craig wrote, "iPhone shipments increased nearly 1:1 with subscriber base, indicating minimal/no share loss at the incumbent carrier. We are more conservative in our estimates, given the more recent increased competition from Android devices and some likely cannibalization at AT&T."

Recent sales reports have indicated that Verizon's faith in Android has weakened significantly since the launch of iPhone 4. AT&T has retained the ability to sell 2.5 times as many iPhones as Verizon could sell Android phones over the same period, despite Verizon having better 3G coverage in many key markets and a wide selection of Android models.

In 2009, Verizon made a dramatic shift from RIM's BlackBerry to Android after RIM failed to deliver popular new smartphones that could drive sales growth comparable to the iPhone. Verizon sells significantly fewer smartphones than AT&T, despite having a slight lead in the total number of subscribers.

If the iPhone is able to enhance Verizon's proportion of smartphones sold, it could prove disastrous for Android on a scale similar to that seen by RIM, which slipped from being nearly 90 percent of Verizon's smartphone mix to less than 20 percent in the last year. Additionally, the more iPhones Verizon can sell as upgrades to existing feature phone users, the less cannibalization AT&T is likely to suffer from network switchers.
post #2 of 45
Here's what it will come down to:

If Verizon's network can handle the flood of first week switchersif there aren't activation server problems, if there aren't suddenly a bunch of dropped calls on Verizon, etc.then I think the higher figure is likely.

If, on the other hand, initial reports indicate there isn't really much reason to switch, then I think you can discount a huge number of switchers and have to rely on iPhone virgins who have just been locked into Verizon for a long time. This is not an insubstantial number of people, and a better subsidy could help with that.

Also, I have no reason to believe there will be any problems with Verizon. It seems to handle the smartphone traffic it has now and I strongly doubt the availability of the iPhone on Verizon will create the same proportional spike in data traffic that iPhone did on AT&T.

But, if it is an issue, it could cause this to fizzle.
post #3 of 45
Hey Gene Munster, I predict they'll sell 5M. If my numbers will be closer to the fact would you STFU and never give out random numbers again?
post #4 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by stormj View Post

Here's what it will come down to:

If Verizon's network can handle the flood of first week switchersif there aren't activation server problems, if there aren't suddenly a bunch of dropped calls on Verizon, etc.then I think the higher figure is likely.

I'm not so sure about this as a major factor. It seems that the ever increasing sales on AT&T despite the constant din of reports of dropped calls, poor service and activation issues show that when people have their mind set on a particular phone, they get that phone (provided it is available on their carrier of choice).

Quote:
If, on the other hand, initial reports indicate there isn't really much reason to switch, then I think you can discount a huge number of switchers and have to rely on iPhone virgins who have just been locked into Verizon for a long time. This is not an insubstantial number of people, and a better subsidy could help with that.

I have to agree with you on the "iPhone virgins" thought. I'm not sure why these analysts are so pessimistic on new Verizon sales. My (purely anecdotal) observations have shown that there are TONS of Verizon subscribers interested in the iPhone.
Being a big fan, I often toss out to people "you should get an iPhone" whenever my phone comes into the conversation. I can't count how many times I have heard "but I have Verizon" or "I wish, but my family is on Verizon" or (lately) "next year when Verizon sells it!"
Granted, I am in the NYC metro area where I have heard AT&T is particularly sketchy--though I have very few problems--so maybe these sentiments are not representative of the country as a whole. Nevertheless, I expect huge "virgin" demand when/if the iPhone comes to Verizon this year.

Quote:
Also, I have no reason to believe there will be any problems with Verizon. It seems to handle the smartphone traffic it has now and I strongly doubt the availability of the iPhone on Verizon will create the same proportional spike in data traffic that iPhone did on AT&T.

But, if it is an issue, it could cause this to fizzle.

one sure way to find out...
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post #5 of 45
Hmmm, seems a better title to this article would be - Analyst don't have a freak'n clue how many iPhones Verizon will(would?) sell.
OR
Industry analyst spout gibberish about potential Verizon iPhone sales.
OR
Analyst refer to magic 8 ball regarding potential Verizon iPhone sales numbers.

Meh, sorry for my snooty wasted comment, IMO the article did not convey any real information or news except for the lack of consensus of projected Verizon iPhone sales. I'll go back to sleep now.
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post #6 of 45
Rumors of the Verizon iPhone being just around the corner have persisted since 2007. If it was going to happen, it would have happened by now. These reports and predictions have been totally wrong for 3 years so I'm not about to start believing them now.
post #7 of 45
Considering that there is no offical confirmation of an iPhone using any other technology than GSM I don't see how these figures have any relevance at all.

Although I might be proven wrong I doubt Apple would invest in CDMA, most of the planet uses GSM and they can't build enough iPhone 4's as it is, let alone muddying the waters with another handset to manufacture.

I'm sure that Verizon has some advantages for certain area's of the US in terms of coverage etc and I know Americans love to make their own standard rather than run with the rest of the planet (Pal VS NTSC etc etc) but overall it makes sense for Apple to maintain the GSM standard and expend to T-Mobile in the US and to other international countries.
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post #8 of 45
I'd love to be there when the first few switch to Verizon and then they realize "Hey.....this network is slower....and why can't I talk and surf at the same time?....is my iPhone broken?".
post #9 of 45
At least here in the northeast, Verizon's network is so much better than AT&T's that a lot of people who want an iPhone have stuck with Verizon and bought an iPod Touch or iPad while keeping a cheapo cell phone for voice. And of course some have bought Android or RIM phones. My guess is that there will be initial surge of the first type of person buying iPhones followed by a steady stream of Android/Blackberry immigrants. So we might end up seeing some cannibalization of iPod Touch or iPad sales because of this move to Verizon, but I think there will be a pretty big number of new iPhone sales. I'll hazard a guess that Apple will sell 75% as many iPhones on Verizon as on AT&T.
post #10 of 45
You do see the name of the website is called Appleinsider right? That implies it is relying on unofficial information.

On CDMA, much of China and Brazil use CDMA. Two huge markets. Further, it doesn't make sense for Apple to go to Verizon unless it is incorporating as much of Verizon's subscriber base as possible.

Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

Considering that there is no offical confirmation of an iPhone using any other technology than GSM I don't see how these figures have any relevance at all.

Although I might be proven wrong I doubt Apple would invest in CDMA, most of the planet uses GSM and they can't build enough iPhone 4's as it is, let alone muddying the waters with another handset to manufacture.

I'm sure that Verizon has some advantages for certain area's of the US in terms of coverage etc and I know Americans love to make their own standard rather than run with the rest of the planet (Pal VS NTSC etc etc) but overall it makes sense for Apple to maintain the GSM standard and expend to T-Mobile in the US and to other international countries.
post #11 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by markbriton View Post

Rumors of the Verizon iPhone being just around the corner have persisted since 2007. If it was going to happen, it would have happened by now. These reports and predictions have been totally wrong for 3 years so I'm not about to start believing them now.

That's complete foolishness.

It WILL happen, just not now like these idiots are saying. It won't happen outside of a standard June launch and I don't think it'll happen until Verizon has an LTE network in place.

Originally posted by Marvin

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Originally posted by Marvin

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post #12 of 45
I know of a lot of people who have been unable to get an iPhone because they can't switch to AT&T. Universally they will replace their droid with an iPhone when it becomes available on verizon. I really don't see switchers fromm AT&T as being a significant factor for iPhone verizon iphone sales success. The min factor in total sales will be how fast can apple build them.
post #13 of 45
I disagree with the analyst. First off there will not be a flood of people leaving ATT. Only those that are unhappy AND whose 2 year contracts are up would move. Everyone else stays until 2 year contract is up. Second, many Verizon customers who did not make the switch to iPhone because they were in contracts or they really like Verizon will know buy the iPhone as their contracts expire with old phone. Finally, there will be the rush of people buying the iPhone who have been waiting for it to come to Verizon and they dont care the cost.

I suspect you will start hearing how terrible Verizon's network is.
post #14 of 45
Well I will switch as soon as I can..... I have to use Verizon due to coverage issues. AT&T does not have 3G coverage in about 1/3rd of my sales territory and my entire family is on Verizon....

I do have a 3G iPad and Verizon Droid so I know how bad AT&T data coverage is in my area.....
post #15 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by noexpectations View Post

I'd love to be there when the first few switch to Verizon and then they realize "Hey.....this network is slower....and why can't I talk and surf at the same time?....is my iPhone broken?".

You're assuming everyone uses the iPhone the same way. If 65% of iPhone owners use less than 200 MB of data then that means the majority use their iPhone tooooooo (drum roll please)......make phone calls and have grown tired of failed connections and dropped calls. Those people will switch and barely miss faster speeds and the ability to talk and surf.
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post #16 of 45
Yes, but the other rumors had no valid basis as AT&T had a five year contract. That contract was likely modified in Apple's favor the following year when Apple stopped doing iTunes activation that made it easier for people to activate the phone on other networks.

Now even ATT is suggesting the contract is coming to an end. Myself, I suspect around June, which was when the iPhone came out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by markbriton View Post

Rumors of the Verizon iPhone being just around the corner have persisted since 2007. If it was going to happen, it would have happened by now. These reports and predictions have been totally wrong for 3 years so I'm not about to start believing them now.
post #17 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell View Post

Yes, but the other rumors had no valid basis as AT&T had a five year contract. That contract was likely modified in Apple's favor the following year when Apple stopped doing iTunes activation that made it easier for people to activate the phone on other networks.

Now even ATT is suggesting the contract is coming to an end. Myself, I suspect around June, which was when the iPhone came out.

The misconception is that the contract started from when ATT started selling the iphone when in reality the contract started when it was signed in 2006, a year before the it was actually available.
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post #18 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

... I know Americans love to make their own standard rather than run with the rest of the planet (Pal VS NTSC etc etc) but overall it makes sense for Apple to maintain the GSM standard and expend to T-Mobile in the US and to other international countries.

However, NTSC is about 12 year older than PAL... the "international countries" got color TV much later than the US.
post #19 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDoppio View Post

However, NTSC is about 12 year older than PAL... the "international countries" got color TV much later than the US.

NTSC fudged the color to make it work though.. or is that colour?
post #20 of 45
All I can say as an AT&T iphone owner, is that with competition comes better pricing. I will probably stay on AT&T as I want to keep my unlimited bandwidth plan, but if Verizon comes out with one and charges X less....AT&T will need to lower their rates too or suffer the consequences.

So bring it on
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post #21 of 45
I hate analysts.... They are the scum suckers of the financial world. They make these sweeping statements filled with nonsensical numbers and broad assumptions and are paid a very pretty salary for what, nothing... no meaning at all....
post #22 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell View Post

You do see the name of the website is called Appleinsider right? That implies it is relying on unofficial information.

On CDMA, much of China and Brazil use CDMA. Two huge markets. Further, it doesn't make sense for Apple to go to Verizon unless it is incorporating as much of Verizon's subscriber base as possible.

Well aware of the websites name, also very aware of the amount of times this same rumour has been perpetuated in multiple forms.

My comment was not against Appleinsider it was against the bullshit numbers being thrown about by analysts'.

Perhaps you feel that such insightful (not) data is useful, personally I think it's a load of crap.

But you are naturally entitled to your opinion.
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post #23 of 45
I don't believe the rumors... they simply don't make sense.
Let's analyze the facts, they are quite simple indeed.

1- Apple updates its line of iPhones every year in June, there are reasons for that:
a) the cost to change a line of production is not worth changing it so often
b) marketing, Apple builds the hype towards new products and knows that people know when to expect new products : iPhone in June, iPad in February (or January, I can't remember), iPod in September etc...
c) Apple is very careful not to update major products at the same time, in order to maximize the hype around each update and maintain a constant momentum throughout the year

2- The iPad is due for an update and bringing the ipad 3G to Verizon is an easy test drive for the iPhone in June, the WIFI ipad is already being sold at Verizon

3- Starting to sell the iPad at Verizon can bring negotiation strength to Apple to persuade ATT to maintain their exclusivity one more year for the iPhone.

Let me explain why it is still in Apple interest to stay with ATT:

I - LTE is not ready yet to be worldwide spread or even nationwide so an LTE iphone is out of the question right now.
II - non-LTE but 3G CDMA iPhones (or even dual CDMA / GMS-UMTS )would be a step back in technology as CDMA is much more primitive than GMS-UTMS and this is precisely why Verizon is moving so fast toward LTE.
III - LTE is already available for data only on Verizon with voice not before this summer and by then, the network won't be acceptable for Apple to start deploying the iPhone and expect a good experience on the user side.
IV - Apple has NEVER gone backwards with technology and innovation, why would they start now ?
V - the only phone that would make sense technologically would be a tri-system : LTE-UTMS(GMS)-CDMA but radio chip for that do not exist and putting in two chips would increase unreasonably the unit cost.


Anyway, this is my opinion:
No iPhone in early 2011
Yes iPad 3G GMS-UTMS / CDMA for early 2011 (with of course the camera(s) and face time).
post #24 of 45
ATT five year exclusivity contract started only 4 1/2 years ago, why would anyone assume ATT would renounce a good 6 months or even one day of exclusivity ?

Now I'm sure Apple has ways out of this contract but breaking out of a contract always has a cost, either directly financial, or in the quality of the Apple=ATT partnership, is it worth damaging it further ?
post #25 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by emulator View Post

Hey Gene Munster, I predict they'll sell 5M. If my numbers will be closer to the fact would you STFU and never give out random numbers again?

analysts are like sex panther: 60% of the time they're right all the time.
post #26 of 45
"...with Verizon's sales largely coming at the expense of AT&T."

How else would Verizon selling an iPhone affect AT&T? Being that AT&T is the exclusive carrier in the US now and Verizon will be the first alternative - OF COURSE it will be at the expense of AT&T. If not AT&T, then Verizon. NO DUH! Thank you Capt. Obvious! Analysts are useless once again.
post #27 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clement View Post

I don't believe the rumors... they simply don't make sense.
Let's analyze the facts, they are quite simple indeed.

1- Apple updates its line of iPhones every year in June, there are reasons for that:
a) the cost to change a line of production is not worth changing it so often
b) marketing, Apple builds the hype towards new products and knows that people know when to expect new products : iPhone in June, iPad in February (or January, I can't remember), iPod in September etc...
c) Apple is very careful not to update major products at the same time, in order to maximize the hype around each update and maintain a constant momentum throughout the year

2- The iPad is due for an update and bringing the ipad 3G to Verizon is an easy test drive for the iPhone in June, the WIFI ipad is already being sold at Verizon

3- Starting to sell the iPad at Verizon can bring negotiation strength to Apple to persuade ATT to maintain their exclusivity one more year for the iPhone.

Let me explain why it is still in Apple interest to stay with ATT:

I - LTE is not ready yet to be worldwide spread or even nationwide so an LTE iphone is out of the question right now.
II - non-LTE but 3G CDMA iPhones (or even dual CDMA / GMS-UMTS )would be a step back in technology as CDMA is much more primitive than GMS-UTMS and this is precisely why Verizon is moving so fast toward LTE.
III - LTE is already available for data only on Verizon with voice not before this summer and by then, the network won't be acceptable for Apple to start deploying the iPhone and expect a good experience on the user side.
IV - Apple has NEVER gone backwards with technology and innovation, why would they start now ?
V - the only phone that would make sense technologically would be a tri-system : LTE-UTMS(GMS)-CDMA but radio chip for that do not exist and putting in two chips would increase unreasonably the unit cost.


Anyway, this is my opinion:
No iPhone in early 2011
Yes iPad 3G GMS-UTMS / CDMA for early 2011 (with of course the camera(s) and face time).

I agree Apple simply won't release an iPhone that is less capable, it's not in their DNA. So the only way there can be a Verizon iPhone is if they have circumvented the limitations somehow to allow full functionality. I have no clue if that can be done via new chips or dual chips etc. or if Verizon have a new network ready to go. Again, IMHO a reduced functionality iPhone will never happen.
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post #28 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by desarc View Post

analysts are like sex panther: 60% of the time they're right all the time.

LOL specially Gene Munster, always right except when he is wrong (most of the time), being overly optimistic and giving way too much value to rumors.

Gene's judgment is clouded by his enthusiasm (that I share) on Apple products and on the company itself.

Yaayyyy !!!! LOVE APPLE
post #29 of 45
Unsubstantiated Guesstimate being made here.

There are too many variables which nobody is certain about yet to make these conclusions. Among the unknown variables are:

1. Data Pricing
2. Verizon IPHONE to be 3G or LTE ?
3. Feature bundle
etc.


Once the complete story is available the numbers will be clearer. If everything is comprable to ATT then Verizon may do better than Munster thinks.
post #30 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by estolinski View Post

"...with Verizon's sales largely coming at the expense of AT&T."

How else would Verizon selling an iPhone affect AT&T? Being that AT&T is the exclusive carrier in the US now and Verizon will be the first alternative - OF COURSE it will be at the expense of AT&T. If not AT&T, then Verizon. NO DUH! Thank you Capt. Obvious! Analysts are useless once again.

I think the writer meant people actually leaving AT&T to go to Verizon, as in a lost customer they already had, when he said 'at the expense of AT&T' rather than how you mean it i.e. a lost sale to AT&T. If a fully functioning iPhone with at least the same performance if not better were available from Verizon I'd switch two accounts simply because I have FiOS so everything else here is Verizon already and I am hoping there will be some incentives to aggregate services. I also hope it would improve signals in our summer residence in the White Mountains of northern New Hampshire where sadly AT&T is virtually missing in action.
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post #31 of 45
I think that if iPhone was to come to Verizon, there would be TONS more phone sold than what Gene thinks.
Everyone I know or who have met who have Verizon want an iPhone.
Except one programmer buddy that loves to think that he is more 'open' than Apple (always having problems with his HTC though).
There will be those that switch. Not me. I was on Verizon before I bought the original iPhone and haven't looked back!
There is humongous pent up demand for a Verizon iPhone.
post #32 of 45
I think Apple needs to get out of their exclusivity deal as soon as possible to head off the threat of Android, and they know it. As somebody else here pointed out recently, they have seen that elsewhere they sell a lot more phones when they are available on multiple carriers, and of course once somebody buys into a platform and carrier, they are likely to stay with it for at least a couple of years. Also, with new Android phones coming out from multiple manufacturers in every season of the year, Apple may not want to be rigid about only updating once a year if they don't have to.

I know a lot of people who didn't get an iPhone specifically because it wasn't on Verizon--they all ended up with Android, which, being their first proper smartphone, seems like a gift from God, and it will be harder to get them to buy iPhones now.

I think it's also interesting to note that if you look at the group of people who don't already own a smartphone, a lot more of them are on Verizon than AT&T, so I would expect a lot of new iPhone users to come from this group.

I wouldn't be surprised if the elusive white iPhone were exclusive to Verizon, which would help explain the mystery surrounding its release (or lack thereof). I just hope it doesn't have their incredibly ugly logo on it.
post #33 of 45
No simultaneous voice and data is a permanent deal killer. I know that will happen, just not sure when.
post #34 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by estolinski View Post

"...with Verizon's sales largely coming at the expense of AT&T."

How else would Verizon selling an iPhone affect AT&T? Being that AT&T is the exclusive carrier in the US now and Verizon will be the first alternative - OF COURSE it will be at the expense of AT&T. If not AT&T, then Verizon. NO DUH! Thank you Capt. Obvious! Analysts are useless once again.

Perhaps you should calm down and realize that some people use their iPhones on T-Mobile, but would gladly switch to Verizon.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #35 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by boeyc15 View Post

Hmmm, seems a better title to this article would be - Analyst don't have a freak'n clue how many iPhones Verizon will(would?) sell.
OR
Industry analyst spout gibberish about potential Verizon iPhone sales.
OR
Analyst refer to magic 8 ball regarding potential Verizon iPhone sales numbers.

Meh, sorry for my snooty wasted comment, IMO the article did not convey any real information or news except for the lack of consensus of projected Verizon iPhone sales. I'll go back to sleep now.

They are basing their entire analysis on Apple even actually bringing the iPhone to Verizon.

Apple's big CDMA customers will be in China, long before Steve targets Verizon.

http://www.gizchina.com/2010/10/17/d...-coming-china/

http://thenextweb.com/asia/2010/10/2...tion-in-china/

They are assuming Verizon is part of the deal.

China Telecom dwarfs Verizon. Apple wants penetration into China to be as broad and deep as possible. That way they can drive their entire product lines into hundreds of potentially new consumers.

Apple doesn't have to convince Verizon customers to buy a Mac or iPad or whatever.

Verizon got the iPad last.

A dual mode Chinese unified model has the potential of making far greater ROI for Apple by offering this one phone to > 750 million potential subscribers.

I'd expect Apple to target China before Verizon.

From Electronista:
http://www.electronista.com/articles...source.claims/

Quote:
The Verizon iPhone will be a hybrid LTE/CDMA device, launching shortly after Christmas, a source claims. Described only as "familiar with the matter," the source elaborates that Verizon held management training sessions for iPhone sales last week, and allegedly had LTE-ready models available for hands-on use. The Verizon iPhone in fact said to have been finished for some time, already in shipment to company warehouses.

The warehouse stockpiling is believed to be part of an agreement with Apple to control security. Verizon is at the moment said to be avoiding shipping units to third-party retailers in order to prevent leaks. Once an announcement is made though, the carrier will then push devices out to channels en masse.

The carrier's marketing is expected to concentrate on its recently-launched LTE network, which allows for much faster data than is possible with current 3G networks. The CDMA support is considered essential, however, since LTE is so far only running in 38 cities and 60 airports. Some other LTE-capable phones shipping in early 2011 include the HTC Incredible HD.

The source suggests that Apple's CEO, Steve Jobs, is upset about the progress of LTE deployment so far. The company is as a result thought to be "helping" carriers with LTE expansion, although it may be too late. Apple is said to have wanted to make the iPhone 5 an LTE-only device, but neither AT&T nor Verizon are expected to have widespread networks finished by the summer.

Not having an LTE roll out for Verizon at a rate Apple wants would seem to be that they will target CDMA for China first and LTE later for the USA.

Verizon's real LTE rollout, as well as AT&T's, won't be in real effect until 2012.

China Mobile is targeting 2011 for test beds in densely populated cities but not a full-scale roll out until 2012, as well.

http://www.mobilebusinessbriefing.co...phone-partners

Quote:
China Mobile planning to speed LTE launch; seeking Ophone partners

Published: Tuesday 14 December 2010
Region: Asia Pacific
Tags: China Mobile

China Mobile is reportedly considering the launch of commercial TD-LTE services in 2012, with large-scale pilots set to take place next year, in order to meet the growing demand for mobile data connectivity. According to China Daily, Bill Huang (pictured), general manager of the China Mobile Research Institute, said that trials will take place in cities on the Pearl and Yangtze river deltas, although the final decision will be up to the countrys Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. It was reported last month that China Mobile was planning TD-LTE pilots in six cities - Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Shenzhen and Xiamen - but was waiting for the regulatory green-light. China Mobile is also continuing the build-out of its TD-SCDMA 3G network, in order to serve data customers, and is looking to WiFi to meet growing demand in the near-term. China Daily also notes that some international operators, such as Polands Aero2, also have aggressive TD-LTE plans, expressing an interest in launching services during 2011.

Separately, IDG News Service says that China Mobile is planning the creation of an innovation alliance intended to drive development for its Ophone device operating system. The platform is a customised version of Googles Android, and it has been reported that more than 30 devices based on the OS will reach the market during 2011, from a mix of domestic and international vendors including Asus, Acer, Huawei, Lenovo, LG Electronics, Motorola, Samsung, Sony Ericsson and ZTE. It was not revealed what form the new alliance will take, although it was said to have been a year in the planning.

If LTE isn't going to be ready for nation-wide deployment I think people need to rethink exactly what will be supported in the iPhone 5 and if it will just be a firmware update to flip the switch when LTE is live in large deployments.

http://www.telecompaper.com/news/chi...-tests-in-2011

Quote:
News
China Mobile plans TD-LTE commercial tests in 2011
Wednesday 15 December 2010 | 10:30 CET

China Mobile will start its first commercial tests of TD-LTE in 2011. Bill Huang, general manager of the China Mobile Research Institute, told China Daily that TD-LTE, the next-generation telecommunication standard that China Mobile is promoting, will see large-scale development in 2011. Full-scale commercial tests of TD-LTE will first be conducted in cities mainly in the Pearl and Yangtze river deltas, Huang said on the sidelines of the 2010 International Mobile Internet Conference in Beijing. However, he declined to reveal the number and names of those cities, saying it was up to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to make a decision. Wang Jianzhou, chairman of China Mobile, said the operator's strategy in facing the challenges of the mobile internet era was to accelerate the expansion of the 3G network, start commercial usage of TD-LTE and increase WLAN coverage. Increased data traffic requires an expanded network, he continued, and China Mobile will build more than 200,000 TD-SCDMA base stations by the end of this year, allowing its network to cover all cities across China.

WLAN will be good for the iPad in large deployments, without the need for data plan.

The big pie is CHINA.
post #36 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

If LTE isn't going to be ready for nation-wide deployment I think people need to rethink exactly what will be supported in the iPhone 5 and if it will just be a firmware update to flip the switch when LTE is live in large deployments.

Read "ships with a GSM/LTE chip that teardowns reveal instantly and jailbreakers activate immediately", right?

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #37 of 45
Factors to consider:
1) pent up demand from Verizon customers.
2) pent up demand from AT&T customers who want to switch.
3) pent up demand from people on Sprint/Tmobile who want an iPhone but not on AT&T.
4) pent up demand for white iPhone.
5) verizon's huge base of business customers.
post #38 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by jman_in_NYC View Post

NTSC fudged the color to make it work though.. or is that colour?

It's not called Never Twice the Same Color for no reason.

Then again SECAM was Something Exceedingly Contrary to the American Method and PAL is People Are Lavender.
post #39 of 45
So, what ever happened to Apple's 5-year exclusive agreement with AT&T? How can they get out of this contract?
post #40 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by justbobf View Post

So, what ever happened to Apple's 5-year exclusive agreement with AT&T? How can they get out of this contract?

It was never 5
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