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Apple expected to produce 6 million second-gen iPads per month - Page 2

post #41 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blah64 View Post

Bingo! In a high school it might not make as much difference, but would be bad news for elementary and middle schools, where you have young kids.

My fear is that Apple, in their need to keep the # of SKUs down, may ignore this problem. There's a cost associated with managing additional models, as well as the game with "best seller" sales #s, which are higher when you have less models to choose from. The question is, is the K-12 market big enough in Apple's eyes to offset the other aspects?

Remember, in the past Apple has made certain models available only to educational channels. Personally, I hope they don't do that, and keep the existing model for sale to the general public at a reduced price, but I guess we'll find out in a few months.

Any school that has iPads for kids to use should be using profiles to lock them down.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #42 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I hope it is true.

As a share holder I had to run to the bathroom

Bathroom....is there such a thing as an iPOT......you must be flush with excitement.
post #43 of 83
OT:

RIMM Earnings call today!
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post #44 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

OT:

RIMM Earnings call today!

This should be good. What time PT?
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #45 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

This should be good. What time PT?

Now?

http://www.businessinsider.com/rim-e...alysis-2010-12

Edit:

https://pennies.interactivebrokers.c...01216.nMKW841a
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post #46 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Now?

http://www.businessinsider.com/rim-e...alysis-2010-12

Analysts expect gross margins to remain in the 42% range and for phone shipments to also stay in the 14 million range. We’ll see.

Apple did 14.1 million iPhone units last quarter. Sure, it was their first full quarter for the new handset, but they’ve sold more units in the subsequent holiday quarter in 2 out of 3 release cycles.


edit: Interesting. 14.2 million unit shipments which just beats out Apple’s 14.1 million in unit sales. Overall their profit margin is healthy and slightly higher than last year. Not bad, but I don’t think it’s enough to convince investors you have a plan for fixing their “sinking ship” just that they have talented, fat fingers to slow it down considerably. They need QNX to work.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #47 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Analysts expect gross margins to remain in the 42% range and for phone shipments to also stay in the 14 million range. Well see.

Apple did 14.1 million iPhone units last quarter. Sure, it was their first full quarter for the new handset, but theyve sold more units in the subsequent holiday quarter in 2 out of 3 release cycles.


edit: Interesting. 14.2 million unit shipments which just beats out Apples 14.1 million in unit sales. Overall their profit margin is healthy and slightly higher than last year. Not bad, but I dont think its enough to convince investors you have a plan for fixing their sinking ship just that they have talented, fat fingers to slow it down considerably. They need QNX to work.

Apple also uses the word "shipment" in the actual SEC footnotes.
post #48 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Any school that has iPads for kids to use should be using profiles to lock them down.

They don't lock the cameras out on MacBooks for schools, so why should this be a problem here?
post #49 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

They don't lock the cameras out on MacBooks for schools, so why should this be a problem here?

Was that about schools secretly turning on the camera to take pictures of "missing" laptops?
post #50 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Analysts expect gross margins to remain in the 42% range and for phone shipments to also stay in the 14 million range. Well see.

Apple did 14.1 million iPhone units last quarter. Sure, it was their first full quarter for the new handset, but theyve sold more units in the subsequent holiday quarter in 2 out of 3 release cycles.


edit: Interesting. 14.2 million unit shipments which just beats out Apples 14.1 million in unit sales. Overall their profit margin is healthy and slightly higher than last year. Not bad, but I dont think its enough to convince investors you have a plan for fixing their sinking ship just that they have talented, fat fingers to slow it down considerably. They need QNX to work.

The live blog for RIMM and Oracle is here, if it works;

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10949...ed&cm_ite=Feed
post #51 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Apple also uses the word "shipment" in the actual SEC footnotes.

During the conference call, Cook said "sold".
post #52 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Was that about schools secretly turning on the camera to take pictures of "missing" laptops?

Whatever. I doubt Dell is delivering them without the camera either.
post #53 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

During the conference call, Cook said "sold".

They also start every conference call with legalese that will tell you to look at the actual SEC filings.
post #54 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

They don't lock the cameras out on MacBooks for schools, so why should this be a problem here?

Good point. If they aren’t going disallow notebooks with cameras then why would they care about tablets with cameras? Plus phones typically have cameras are easily concealed. It’s not like they can’t remove drivers, apps in Mac OS X and lock down either Apple OS as needed if it is an issue.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #55 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I don't believe it. It's only a rumor they ramped to three million a month. No more than that. This is a rumor as well. I can tell you from the view of someone who was a partner in a manufacturing company that you don't ramp up that much, and then ramp down that much. You try to build inventory up over time before the heavy sales period without ramping up much. Ramping up costs a lot of money, and usually involves more production lines. It then costs a lot to ramp back down. apple, like most other companies, builds inventory up over time, before release.

I understand that logic, but I never said I believed it or stated anything as fact. Just said even if rumors are true of 6 million/month, doesn't automatically mean they're hoping to make and sell 72 million next year as a few people seem to equate that to mean.

I also said it was only reported that they upped production to 3 million a month and based on that, we can only expect 8 million at the most this holiday quarter. (Of course, there's always the possibility that production was higher than that, but not likely.)

Lastly, the only real numbers we can believe are those Apple discloses during its quarterly conference calls; everything up to that point is purely conjecture.

Personally, I couldn't care any less how many they sold or plan on making and selling, I got mine and love it!
Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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post #56 of 83
I think you are on the right track, applebaum. If I had my guess, Jobs wants the ipad to be the cheap handle to the expensive razorblades. Or Kodak's Brownie, cheap camera means lots of repeat business in film and processing. The ipads like the Kodak Brownie or the Glillet disposable razor.

Jobs wants us to consume Software and Services on our Ipad 2. The money is not in the Ipad, its in its media consuming appetite.

Thats my guess.

Bingo. That is what the new Carolina Cloud is for. Its to support this base of media consuming iproduct. What a cash stream. And internationally applicable.
post #57 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

They also start every conference call with legalese that will tell you to look at the actual SEC filings.

They all say that. It just happens to match
post #58 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjtomlin View Post

I understand that logic, but I never said I believed it or stated anything as fact. Just said even if rumors are true of 6 million/month, doesn't automatically mean they're hoping to make and sell 72 million next year as a few people seem to equate that to mean.

I also said it was only reported that they upped production to 3 million a month and based on that, we can only expect 8 million at the most this holiday quarter. (Of course, there's always the possibility that production was higher than that, but not likely.)

Lastly, the only real numbers we can believe are those Apple discloses during its quarterly conference calls; everything up to that point is purely conjecture.

Personally, I couldn't care any less how many they sold or plan on making and selling, I got mine and love it!

I'm just responding to what you said.
post #59 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

They all say that. It just happens to match

They all say that because it's true.

From Apple's 10K (http://www.apple.com/investor/)

Revenue Recognition
Net sales consist primarily of revenue from the sale of hardware, software, digital content and applications, peripherals, and service and support contracts. The Company recognizes revenue when persuasive evidence of an arrangement exists, delivery has occurred, the sales price is fixed or determinable, and collection is probable. Product is considered delivered to the customer once it has been shipped and title and risk of loss have been transferred. For most of the Companys product sales, these criteria are met at the time the product is shipped. For online sales to individuals, for some sales to education customers in the U.S., and for certain other sales, the Company defers revenue until the customer receives the product because the Company legally retains a portion of the risk of loss on these sales during transit. The Company recognizes revenue from the sale of hardware products (e.g., Macs, iPhones, iPads, iPods and peripherals), software bundled with hardware that is essential to the functionality of the hardware, and third-party digital content sold on the iTunes Store in accordance with general revenue recognition accounting guidance. The Company recognizes revenue in accordance with industry specific software accounting guidance for the following types of sales transactions: (i) standalone sales of software products, (ii) sales of software upgrades and (iii) sales of software bundled with hardware not essential to the functionality of the hardware.
post #60 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Here's an interesting speculation:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Is-The....html?x=0&.v=1

From what I've read, the $499 iPad parts costs are roughly $230, with major component costs

-- $80 Display
-- $30 SSD
-- $20 A4
-- $10 Case

If we assume that Apple's economies of scale have improved, manufacturing and yields have improved, and aggressive pre-orders/pre-payments and investments in mfg's plants -- I suspect that, say, 3 mm units per month the current $499 iPad could be manufactured for, let's say $150-$170.

If they could hit the $150 cost, then a sell price of $199 would yield 25%; $229 would yield 35% Gross Profit... not the best, but certainly acceptable.

There are several additional things that could be done:
-- Other A4/SSD based products (web server, home server) to further reduce overall parts costs across several product lines
-- Bundling with higher profit apps, content, subscriptions and accessories
-- iPad carrier subsidies - say, $25 per unit for the base iPad
-- Tethering plans
-- special direct sales to education / enterprise
-- Special promotions

In the special promotions I would suggest that they target the OLPC project with an iPad -- Buy 1, Give one, and offer the iPad at cost to participating countries/communities -- lots of workable possibilities here. BTW, some of those communities are in US and Europe.

I find it interesting that when discuss cost you looked at the major component costs of hardware but didn't have anything in the mix for the software (iOS) which is a major cost (amortized across product lines and time). Putting in these component costs but nothing for software and manufacturing is a huge over site IMHO.

Just my thoughts - could be I don't understand manufacture of a hard product (as opposed to software) since I have spent my career in software engineering (and as a civil engr b4 that in my first life).
post #61 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damn_Its_Hot View Post

I find it interesting that when discuss cost you looked at the major component costs of hardware but didn't have anything in the mix for the software (iOS) which is a major cost (amortized across product lines and time). Putting in these component costs but nothing for software and manufacturing is a huge over site IMHO.

Just my thoughts - could be I don't understand manufacture of a hard product (as opposed to software) since I have spent my career in software engineering (and as a civil engr b4 that in my first life).

Sure, it needs to be counted in the total cost, but I dont think its a very much. Just look at Mac OS and how many units and types of units they used to sell and still sell. Then note the nature of that device being able to have various 3rd-party HW and SW that needs to be tested for. iOS is a single new model each year for the iPad, iPhone and iPod Touch (not sure about the AppleTVs HW update cycle), which are all fairly similar in many of the HW areas, and its much more limited in scope of what can diverge due to user interaction due to the closed HW and SW system. On top of that, they sell 6x(?) as many iOS-based devices as Macs.

To put another way, since its release in June arent they year of use arent they slated to sell over 100M iOS-based devices? If they spent $100M on SW for iOS in total that would be $1 per unit, right?
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #62 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

They all say that because it's true.

From Apple's 10K (http://www.apple.com/investor/)

Revenue Recognition
Net sales consist primarily of revenue from the sale of hardware, software, digital content and applications, peripherals, and service and support contracts. The Company recognizes revenue when persuasive evidence of an arrangement exists, delivery has occurred, the sales price is fixed or determinable, and collection is probable. Product is considered delivered to the customer once it has been shipped and title and risk of loss have been transferred. For most of the Company’s product sales, these criteria are met at the time the product is shipped. For online sales to individuals, for some sales to education customers in the U.S., and for certain other sales, the Company defers revenue until the customer receives the product because the Company legally retains a portion of the risk of loss on these sales during transit. The Company recognizes revenue from the sale of hardware products (e.g., Macs, iPhones, iPads, iPods and peripherals), software bundled with hardware that is essential to the functionality of the hardware, and third-party digital content sold on the iTunes Store in accordance with general revenue recognition accounting guidance. The Company recognizes revenue in accordance with industry specific software accounting guidance for the following types of sales transactions: (i) standalone sales of software products, (ii) sales of software upgrades and (iii) sales of software bundled with hardware not essential to the functionality of the hardware.

Notice the part about transfer of title? That's a sale. RIMM just said that they shipped about 14.1 million phones this last quarter, but upon being asked, they admitted that they just sold a bit over 12 million.
post #63 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Something like the iPad is so inexpensive at $500 -- that someone will give it away to get you to buy their product. The prize in the cereal box, if you will.

I don't know whether that's someone selling language courses, wine/gourmet food of the month, real estate courses, subscriptions to whatever, home security, college degrees, automotive repair, woodworking...

There is a resort in Key West FL (USA), Island House, that gives you a free iPad when you stay 7 or more nights (I assume to surf the internet on their wifi).
post #64 of 83
I am as pro Apple as they come but have held off on buying an iPad because I am waiting for some actually functionality. I feel there needs to be the ability to write and take notes on .ppts. I know there is a big push to go with the "human interface" but most people don't write with their finger, they use pens and pencils. Incorporating this sort of functionality would open it up to all the students, like myself, who refused to buy microsoft based products. I hope iPad2 has the ability to do something. If it does, I will buy 2 (one for my wife and one for me).
post #65 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by dthudon View Post

I hope iPad2 has the ability to do something that I want it to do. If it does, I will buy 2 (one for my wife and one for me).

Corrected that for you...
na na na na na...
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na na na na na...
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post #66 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Notice the part about transfer of title? That's a sale. RIMM just said that they shipped about 14.1 million phones this last quarter, but upon being asked, they admitted that they just sold a bit over 12 million.

When Apple shipped their iphones to the carriers, they also transfer title. You can ask the Russian carriers who were holding the bag when they couldn't sell them.
post #67 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by 801 View Post

I think you are on the right track, applebaum. If I had my guess, Jobs wants the ipad to be the cheap handle to the expensive razorblades. Or Kodak's Brownie, cheap camera means lots of repeat business in film and processing. The ipads like the Kodak Brownie or the Glillet disposable razor.

Jobs wants us to consume Software and Services on our Ipad 2. The money is not in the Ipad, its in its media consuming appetite.

Thats my guess.

Bingo. That is what the new Carolina Cloud is for. Its to support this base of media consuming iproduct. What a cash stream. And internationally applicable.

Yeah... it's gotta be something like that!

But I don't know if Apple wants to get in the Content business -- it would send a bad signal to other Content providers. Just as they don't get heavy into the app business, because it competes with the developers.


Here's what I want.

If I as a consumer of content , I look at what frustrates me the most -- I can't get the content I want, when i want on the devices I want it.

For live event content I understand I need to watch live; record live; or rent/purchase after the fact.

We pay ATT U-verse $180/mo for basic cable and Medium speed Internet. We Pay ATT Wireless $255/Mo for 5 phones (2 iPhones) and 1 iPad 3G. We pay NetFlix $19 month for streaming Movies and the occasional DVD. Red Box gets another $15/mo. And we've rented or purchased hundreds of LPs, VHS tapes, CDs and DVDs. Spend $50 a month with iTMS. Spend $50/month first run DVDs.

All that, over $500/mo (and all the time, space and equipment) and we still can't get what we want.


If Apple can negotiate/convince the Content Owners to allow demand or subscription streaming to any/all of my iDevices (including AppleTV.

If Apple can negotiate/convince my IP provider to assure acceptable streaming performance through to my router.

If Apple can negotiate/convince my wireless provider to assure acceptable streaming performance through to my iDevices,

If Apple can remove the burden/requirement for me me to manage and maintain a local media-library for all my purchases.

I would gladly pay Apple the $500/month to have Apple either deal with these entities or bypass them.
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"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
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post #68 of 83
But they are in the content business. Itunes is # what? in music sales. The App store. The pending IMac applications store. Now working on books. Now working on TV, and movies.

I would bet you a beer, this is where the growth and direction Apple will go.
post #69 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

When Apple shipped their iphones to the carriers, they also transfer title. You can ask the Russian carriers who were holding the bag when they couldn't sell them.

BS. As usual.
post #70 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

BS. As usual.

From RIM's annual report:

http://www.rim.com/investors/documen...2010rim_ar.pdf

"Devices
Revenue from the sale of Blackberry devices is recognized when title is transferred to the customer and all significant contractual obligations that affect the customer's final acceptance have been fulfilled."
post #71 of 83
I did not buy the first gen BUT If it has retina display, front back camera, higher specs, 3G models only and basic model to be 32GB.
post #72 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

From RIM's annual report:

http://www.rim.com/investors/documen...2010rim_ar.pdf

"Devices
Revenue from the sale of Blackberry devices is recognized when title is transferred to the customer and all significant contractual obligations that affect the customer's final acceptance have been fulfilled."

Yes. And I said that THEY said that they shipped 14 million, but when asked, said that they sold about 12 million. With Apple, shipped and sold are the same thing.
post #73 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Yes. And I said that THEY said that they shipped 14 million, but when asked, said that they sold about 12 million. With Apple, shipped and sold are the same thing.

Are you sure that you didn't mishear it --- they shipped 12 million in the previous quarter.

Transcript is not out yet.
post #74 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by 801 View Post

But they are in the content business. Itunes is # what? in music sales. The App store. The pending IMac applications store. Now working on books. Now working on TV, and movies.

I would bet you a beer, this is where the growth and direction Apple will go.

No!

Apple does not provide content!

Apple resells content owned by others!

Apple breaks even or makes minimal profit for iTunes Music Store and iTunes App Store.

These are used to sell Apple hardware -- same way as OS X, iLife, iWork FCE, FCS, etc.

Apple makes 35-45% gross margin on its hardware!

That's what business Apple is in.

The only thing I don't know about is iAd -- long term, Apple, like Google, could make most of its money from iAd! I hope not!

.
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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post #75 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

If one thinks of global demand, six million units per month is not that far-fetched.

there are some pretty convincing rumors that 2.0 will support both CDMA and GSM making it a world device. That could help to push the global numbers that high


Quote:
Originally Posted by Blah64 View Post

My fear is that Apple, in their need to keep the # of SKUs down, may ignore this problem.

Or perhaps they won't.

The 16 GB wifi only that we have now is good for a lot of school needs. So maybe they will leave that model as is. If component prices have come down they could drop the price. Say to $399. Then make the 2.0 in six models. 32, 64, and 128 with an wifi only and a 3G. At the same price points they have now

That would give them only one more sku to worry about. If they were sure the units will sell, that isn't so bad

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #76 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Remember When we were all debating whether Apple should make a 6"-7" tablet, or a 10" model? Now that they've made the 10", I don't see 6"-7" as being the cards now. If 7" seems very popular with Android models (likely because of cost issues), then maybe Apple will follow.

But I think Apple wants to make a clear distinction between the two sizes. We know that Apple doesn't want people to be confused over product differences.

Yes, I said that if there was going to be a tablet from Apple that one measuring 5.5"x8.5" would be optimal, since that is the most popular size of (non-electronic) planner/organizer. I stand by that statement, although it seems the larger size is also working out pretty well for Apple.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #77 of 83
I could see Apple hitting 3 to 5 million iPads a month by the end of 2011.
6 million a month is... insanity. Kudos to Apple if they could pull it off, it's outrageous.
post #78 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Notice the part about transfer of title? That's a sale. RIMM just said that they shipped about 14.1 million phones this last quarter, but upon being asked, they admitted that they just sold a bit over 12 million.

Yeah I did post in one of the RIMM threads, 14 million sounds really quite high and close to Apple's numbers.
So can anyone tell me, is it true that as Steve Jobs said, "I don't see them catching up anytime soon"??? (regarding smartphones)
post #79 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Yes, I said that if there was going to be a tablet from Apple that one measuring 5.5"x8.5" would be optimal, since that is the most popular size of (non-electronic) planner/organizer. I stand by that statement, although it seems the larger size is also working out pretty well for Apple.

I don't see Apple messing with the size of the iPad2 except to make it thinner, lighter. The iPad3 in 8 to 12 months though, could be trimmed down to 9" or something like that. Nothing less than 8" in the next year, I would say.
post #80 of 83
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Are you sure that you didn't mishear it --- they shipped 12 million in the previous quarter.

Transcript is not out yet.

Huh? RIMM said they "shipped" 14.2 million Blackberries. At least that's what's in the news?
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1626944120101217

* RIM Q3 EPS $1.74 vs average analyst estimate $1.65

* Revenue of $5.5 billion, vs avg estimate $5.4 billion

* Ships 14.2 mln BlackBerrys, adds 5.1 mln subscribers

* Shares rise as much as 3 percent in after-hours trade

(Adds detail from conference call; In U.S. dollars)

By Alastair Sharp

TORONTO, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Research In Motion's (RIM.TO) Torch, a touchscreen challenger to Apple's iPhone, lifted the BlackBerry maker's quarterly profit above analyst expectations on Thursday, and the company forecast strong results for the current holiday-season quarter.

RIM (RIMM.O) said net profit jumped 45 percent in its third quarter as it leaned harder on growth from outside of North America. Its shares rose as much as 3 percent in after-market trade.

The Torch, which combines RIM's trademark mini-keyboard with the glitzier touchscreen, shipped to more than 75 carriers in the quarter after an August launch with AT&T (T.N) in the United States. AT&T's half-price promotion from early November also helped sales. [ID:nN09157390]

"The results look pretty good. For the current quarter they definitely benefited from some new products. ... The guidance also looks quite strong," said Shaw Wu, an analyst at Kaufman Bros in San Francisco.
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