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Short-term Weather Patterns: They Mean Nothing. - Page 4

post #121 of 128
That's what letter b was for. It wouldn't happen. But the precedent is still set. I won't use it because I don't bury my head in the sand when reality doesn't match what I really want to believe. But the precedent is still set.

Also, I clarified my position on large families and you never responded. Are you still super sensitive about such a mild comment? I mean, hell, I'm the one who should be offended because you're the one who told ME that I don't value life. Now that's a rather strong and offensive assertion. It's ok, I'm not offended. You were emotional and said something stupid. I get it. I'll forgive you.

 

“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
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“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
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post #122 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by segovius View Post

Are you seriously saying - seriously saying - that this is how you understand what I wrote ?????


Well that's how I have inferred your posts. based on this, this and this.

If I have misunderstood, then I will apologize. To avoid further confusion I will ask you directly: Do you believe and/or are you saying or implying that the questions I posted are examples of "irrationality, unreason and stupidity?"

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #123 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by BR View Post

I don't bury my head in the sand when reality doesn't match what I really want to believe.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #124 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

If I have misunderstood, then I will apologize. To avoid further confusion I will ask you directly: Do you believe and/or are you saying or implying that the questions I posted are examples of "irrationality, unreason and stupidity?"

No..you said I was a denier and I agreed - those are merely examples of things which I 'deny'.

Apologies not needed.
What is Faith? When your good deed pleases you and your evil deed grieves you, you are a believer. What is Sin? When a thing disturbs the peace of your heart, give it up - Prophet Muhammad
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What is Faith? When your good deed pleases you and your evil deed grieves you, you are a believer. What is Sin? When a thing disturbs the peace of your heart, give it up - Prophet Muhammad
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post #125 of 128
Quote:
Originally Posted by segovius View Post

No..you said I was a denier and I agreed - those are merely examples of things which I 'deny'.

Apologies not needed.

OK. Thanks. I feel I should apologize because I misunderstood and then misrepresented what you were saying.

All of that out of the way. I believe the major issue on this subject is around questions 2 & 3:

Quote:
1. Is the earth warming? Yes? No?
2. If yes, then is it warming to a degree or at a rate that threatens humankind? Yes? No?
3. If yes, is there anything we can do about it? Yes? No?

I don't believe there has been real debate around #2. We're simply being told, categorically, that the only consequences of this thing (Climate Change nee Global Warming) are all negative and have a 100% probability. There are no possible positive consequences that could come from it, or if there are they are small and low to zero probability.

I mean, seriously, if the net effects are actually positive we'd be stupid to even try to do anything about it.

Now assuming that #2 is yes. Then we get to #3, which has a sub-question about whether we are actually causing this. If we're not causing it, then it may be very difficult for us to do anything to reverse it.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #126 of 128
Increased flood risk linked to global warming
Quote:
[T]wo studies in this week's Nature1,2 conclude that climate warming is already causing extreme weather events that affect the lives of millions. The research directly links rising greenhouse-gas levels with the growing intensity of rain and snow in the Northern Hemisphere, and the increased risk of flooding in the United Kingdom.....
There is no doubt that humans are altering the climate, but the implications for regional weather are less clear. No computer simulation can conclusively attribute a given snowstorm or flood to global warming. But with a combination of climate models, weather observations and a good dose of probability theory, scientists may be able to determine how climate warming changes the odds. An earlier study3, for example, found that global warming has at least doubled the likelihood of extreme events such as the 2003 European heatwave.....

Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes
Quote:
Given that atmospheric water-holding capacity is expected to increase roughly exponentially with temperatureand that atmospheric water content is increasing in accord with this theoretical expectation6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11it has been suggested that human-influenced global warming may be partly responsible for increases in heavy precipitation3, 5, 7. Because of the limited availability of daily observations, however, most previous studies have examined only the potential detectability of changes in extreme precipitation through modelmodel comparisons12, 13, 14, 15. Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas. These results are based on a comparison of observed and multi-model simulated changes in extreme precipitation over the latter half of the twentieth century analysed with an optimal fingerprinting technique. Changes in extreme precipitation projected by models, and thus the impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with warming16.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000
Quote:
Although the flooding was deemed a wake-up call to the impacts of climate change at the time7, such claims are typically supported only by general thermodynamic arguments that suggest increased extreme precipitation under global warming, but fail8, 9 to account fully for the complex hydrometeorology4, 10 associated with flooding. Here we present a multi-step, physically based probabilistic event attribution framework showing that it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Using publicly volunteered distributed computing11, 12, we generate several thousand seasonal-forecast-resolution climate model simulations of autumn 2000 weather, both under realistic conditions, and under conditions as they might have been had these greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting large-scale warming never occurred. Results are fed into a precipitation-runoff model that is used to simulate severe daily river runoff events in England and Wales (proxy indicators of flood events). The precise magnitude of the anthropogenic contribution remains uncertain, but in nine out of ten cases our model results indicate that twentieth-century anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of floods occurring in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by more than 20%, and in two out of three cases by more than 90%.
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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post #127 of 128
"... the National Academy of Sciences says the median annual area burned by wildfires is projected to jump 200% to 500% in Montana by mid-century. And sure warming-driven bark beetles are infesting and destroying the trees around Helena now..."

...and yet...

"A bill has been introduced in the Montana state legislature to declare global warming a natural occurrence and human activity has not accelerated it, and that it is beneficial to the welfare and business climate of Montana. State Rep. Joe Read (R-MT), a farmer and emergency firefighter who unseated a Democratic incumbent in the climate zombie wave of 2010, introduced HB 549 to ensure economic development in Montana:


The legislature finds that to ensure economic development in Montana and the appropriate management of Montanas natural resources it is necessary to adopt a public policy regarding global warming.

(2) The legislature finds:

(a) global warming is beneficial to the welfare and business climate of Montana;

(b) reasonable amounts of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere have no verifiable impacts on the environment; and

(c) global warming is a natural occurrence and human activity has not accelerated it."
~ http://climateprogress.org/2011/02/1...rming-natural/
"I have been made victorious by terror~ Muhammad

"The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam," ~ Barack Obama

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"I have been made victorious by terror~ Muhammad

"The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam," ~ Barack Obama

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post #128 of 128
Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends

Quote:
Human influence on climate has been detected in surface air temperature1, 2, 3, 4, 5, sea level pressure6, free atmospheric temperature7, tropopause height8 and ocean heat content9. Human-induced changes have not, however, previously been detected in precipitation at the global scale10, 11, 12, partly because changes in precipitation in different regions cancel each other out and thereby reduce the strength of the global average signal13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19. Models suggest that anthropogenic forcing should have caused a small increase in global mean precipitation and a latitudinal redistribution of precipitation, increasing precipitation at high latitudes, decreasing precipitation at sub-tropical latitudes15, 18, 19, and possibly changing the distribution of precipitation within the tropics by shifting the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone20. Here we compare observed changes in land precipitation during the twentieth century averaged over latitudinal bands with changes simulated by fourteen climate models. We show that anthropogenic forcing has had a detectable influence on observed changes in average precipitation within latitudinal bands, and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability or natural forcing. We estimate that anthropogenic forcing contributed significantly to observed increases in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, drying in the Northern Hemisphere subtropics and tropics, and moistening in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics and deep tropics. The observed changes, which are larger than estimated from model simulations, may have already had significant effects on ecosystems, agriculture and human health in regions that are sensitive to changes in precipitation, such as the Sahel.
無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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無心 The idea of wilderness needs no defense, it only needs defenders., Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit__Edward Abbey
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