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Apple to report fiscal first-quarter 2011 results Jan. 18

post #1 of 55
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Apple has revealed that it will publish the financial results of its first fiscal quarter of 2011 on Tuesday, January 18, with a conference call to discuss the results following immediately after.

The news was posted to Apple's investor website along with the notice that a link to the conference call webcast "will be provided at a later date." Apple will make the results public at 5:00 p.m. Eastern time, 2:00 p.m. Pacific, following the close of the stock market.

The results, which will include the holiday season, are largely expected to be record-breaking.

Apple's fourth fiscal quarter of 2010 results wowed Wall Street analysts, though limited supply of the iPad resulted in disappointing sales figures for the tablet device. The Cupertino, Calif., company's profits soared 70 percent year-over-year to $4.31 billion, driven by record sales of iPhones, Macs and iPads.

The iPhone maker projected in October that it will earn $23 billion in revenue and post diluted earnings per share of about $4.80 for the upcoming first fiscal quarter.

During the company's fourth quarter conference call, CEO Steve Jobs broke protocol and joined in on the call. Jobs' comments sparked several controversies by slamming competitors Google and RIM. According to Jobs, 7-inch tablets, such as the BlackBerry PlayBook, will be "dead on arrival."

Jobs also called Google's Android mobile OS fragmented and boasted that the iPhone had passed up sales of RIM's BlackBerry smartphones. Google VP Andy Rubin responded via Twitter by posting the instructions for downloading and installing the Android source code. RIM co-CEO Jim Balsillie responded that customers "are getting tired of being told what to think by Apple."

Analyst Shaw Wu of Kaufman Bros. predicts that Apple will sell 4.2 million Macs, 6.1 million iPads, 16 million iPhones and 17 million iPods in its first fiscal quarter of 2011.
post #2 of 55
Analysts keep raising the bar and Apple keeps leaping over it. This can't go on forever. Irrational exuberance is starting to be a possibility. I'm a certified KoolAid drinker but even I know that Apple can't continue at this pace much longer. The haters are sharpening their knives for the inevitable fall from Wall Street's graces. It's just a matter of when.
post #3 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

Analysts keep raising the bar and Apple keeps leaping over it. This can't go on forever. Irrational exuberance is starting to be a possibility. I'm a certified KoolAid drinker but even I know that Apple can't continue at this pace much longer. The haters are sharpening their knives for the inevitable fall from Wall Street's graces. It's just a matter of when.

The issue I see going on is the analysts continuing to set the bar higher, and higher to where it can never be reached. So even though Apple will continue to sell everything under the sun and continue with having problems meeting demand, the analysts will forecast the "Apple lost its luster" scenario, the trolls will come out proclaiming "We've seen this coming for years!", everyone will dump their stock, only to buy again when it's cheap and do the roller-coaster ride again.
post #4 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

The issue I see going on is the analysts continuing to set the bar higher, and higher to where it can never be reached. So even though Apple will continue to sell everything under the sun and continue with having problems meeting demand, the analysts will forecast the "Apple lost its luster" scenario, the trolls will come out proclaiming "We've seen this coming for years!", everyone will dump their stock, only to buy again when it's cheap and do the roller-coaster ride again.

So you'd prefer the analysts to set the bar lower, so it appears that Apple's earnings growth rate is slower? Be careful what you wish for! As for roller coasters, that's what the market is already, especially where AAPL is concerned.

Incidentally, AAPL has already lost its luster. The stock has substantially underperformed the markets for the past ten weeks or so. The question for now is whether a strong earnings report in January can bring its luster back.
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post #5 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

Analysts keep raising the bar and Apple keeps leaping over it. This can't go on forever. Irrational exuberance is starting to be a possibility. I'm a certified KoolAid drinker but even I know that Apple can't continue at this pace much longer. The haters are sharpening their knives for the inevitable fall from Wall Street's graces. It's just a matter of when.

Apple currently has only 10% of the PC market
The smartphone market is still growing.
The tablet market is exploding
The Mp3 player market has peeked with apple controlling 70%

the iPhone and iPad did not exist 4 years ago.
Four years from now there may be another profit engine that is currently unknown.
I'm sure Steve has more tricks up his sleeve (literally). iWatch iTime
post #6 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Incidentally, AAPL has already lost its luster. The stock has substantially underperformed the markets for the past ten weeks or so. The question for now is whether a strong earnings report in January can bring its luster back.

You are so full of crap... for the past 10 weeks AAPL has performed on par with the Nasdaq and outperformed the DOW. Stop lying.

Here is a nice google finance chart for your viewing pleasure.
post #7 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by russiancommie View Post

You are so full of crap... for the past 10 weeks AAPL has performed on par with the Nasdaq and outperformed the DOW. Stop lying.

Here is a nice google finance chart for your viewing pleasure.

You can disagree, but let's not get nasty.
post #8 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

Analysts keep raising the bar and Apple keeps leaping over it. This can't go on forever. Irrational exuberance is starting to be a possibility. I'm a certified KoolAid drinker but even I know that Apple can't continue at this pace much longer. The haters are sharpening their knives for the inevitable fall from Wall Street's graces. It's just a matter of when.

I know what you are saying. I feel the same way--they have had an incredible run, it has to come back to average some time... But then I read stuff like this:
Quote:
China Telecom is also rumored to be in talks with Apple over a CDMA iPhone, in hopes of an early 2011 release as well. China Unicom, as the exclusive official carrier for the iPhone in China, continues to struggle to meet demand for the iPhone 4. According to Brian White of Ticonderoga Securities, China "remains in the early stages of catching 'Apple fever.'"

And I think, irrational exuberance might not be so irrational...
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post #9 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Incidentally, AAPL has already lost its luster. The stock has substantially underperformed the markets for the past ten weeks or so. The question for now is whether a strong earnings report in January can bring its luster back.

You've usually got a lot to say about the markets and up to now I've given you the benefit of the doubt.

Sadly, though, you just lost all credibility with this statement.
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post #10 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

You can disagree, but let's not get nasty.

There's no cause for either nastiness or disagreement. Since October 18 (ten weeks ago), the NASDAQ is up around 7.5% and AAPL is up less than 2%. It has even been outperformed by the DJI (up 4%), which would normally be a pretty unfavorable comparison.
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post #11 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

You've usually got a lot to say about the markets and up to now I've given you the benefit of the doubt.

Sadly, though, you just lost all credibility with this statement.

It is 100% accurate. You could look it up yourself.
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post #12 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

There's no cause for either nastiness or disagreement. Since October 18 (ten weeks ago), the NASDAQ is up around 7.5% and AAPL is up less than 2%. It has even been outperformed by the DJI (up 4%), which would normally be a pretty unfavorable comparison.

Let's see your chart because I've looked at 4 charts and all of them show AAPL on par with the Nasdaq and outperforming the DOW.
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post #13 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Let's see your chart because I've looked at 4 charts and all of them show AAPL on par with the Nasdaq and outperforming the DOW.

I can't find a way to link to Yahoo's custom charts (Flash based) and this board doesn't permit uploading, so you'll just have to do it yourself. Use the dates 10-18-2010 to 12-27-2010 on a comparison chart and you will see I am right. AAPL was at $318 at the beginning of this period and closed at $323 Friday, 1.7% higher. The NASDAQ started this period at 2481 and closed Friday at 2671, or 7.6% higher.

As a famous politician once said, everybody is entitled to their own opinions, but not their own facts.
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post #14 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

It is 100% accurate. You could look it up yourself.

I find it funny that you picked the one period (from Oct 18th) where AAPL was underperforming from that particular date... if you look from the previous week or from the week after you'll see that AAPL is out about 10% from the NASDAQ and about double or more the performance of the DOW.

If you look over the last week then you'll notice that AAPL is outperforming both the NASDAQ and the DOW.

As I said... you've lost all credibility where the markets are concerned.
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post #15 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I find it funny that you picked the one period (from Oct 18th) where AAPL was underperforming from that particular date... if you look from the previous week or from the week after you'll see that AAPL is out about 10% from the NASDAQ and about double or more the performance of the DOW.

If you look over the last week then you'll notice that AAPL is outperforming both the NASDAQ and the DOW.

It's funny because it's true? No, not underperforming "from that particular date," but over all the weeks from then until now -- a total of eleven weeks, actually. I am referring to a period, not to one day or one week. Those of us with real money on the line want to know this stuff.

Incidentally, for more giggles, the DJI started that period at 11143 and closed Friday at 11573, for a gain of 3.8%.
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post #16 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

It's funny because it's true? No, not underperforming "from that particular date," but over all the weeks from then until now -- a total of eleven weeks, actually. I am referring to a period, not to one day or one week. Those of us with real money on the line want to know this stuff.

Incidentally, for more giggles, the DJI started that period at 11143 and closed Friday at 11573, for a gain of 3.8%.

You're not even listening.

Take a look at the period from 10/11/10 and from 10/25/10... and you'll see that from those dates that AAPL is not doing poorly... pick 10/18/10 and all of a sudden it's performing poorly.

So I call bullshit to your analysis.

Real money my ass.
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post #17 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

So you'd prefer the analysts to set the bar lower, so it appears that Apple's earnings growth rate is slower? Be careful what you wish for! As for roller coasters, that's what the market is already, especially where AAPL is concerned.

Incidentally, AAPL has already lost its luster. The stock has substantially underperformed the markets for the past ten weeks or so. The question for now is whether a strong earnings report in January can bring its luster back.

"Lost it's luster"? Have you compared with other blue chips these days? Other companies would kill for AAPL's performance.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

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Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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post #18 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

There's no cause for either nastiness or disagreement. Since October 18 (ten weeks ago), the NASDAQ is up around 7.5% and AAPL is up less than 2%. It has even been outperformed by the DJI (up 4%), which would normally be a pretty unfavorable comparison.

But as we've discussed previously, that doesn't necessarily mean much. I look to the longer trends. The market might be holding back because of uncertainty of when a Verizon phone will arrive, how many iPads will sell this quarter, etc. It's still moving in the right direction, and that's important. Apple, being mostly a consumer company is tied to unemployment numbers and shopping results. As those numbers seem to be looking better, we may expect to see more of a rise. I believe Apple again hit a new high today.
post #19 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I find it funny that you picked the one period (from Oct 18th) where AAPL was underperforming from that particular date... if you look from the previous week or from the week after you'll see that AAPL is out about 10% from the NASDAQ and about double or more the performance of the DOW.

If you look over the last week then you'll notice that AAPL is outperforming both the NASDAQ and the DOW.

As I said... you've lost all credibility where the markets are concerned.

Milmoss is just another fellow with "selective logic".

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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post #20 of 55
I'm convinced that information like this will move Apple's shares in the right direction, and for us, that direction means up:

http://techcrunch.com/2010/12/27/chr...app-downloads/
post #21 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

You're not even listening.

Take a look at the period from 10/11/10 and from 10/25/10... and you'll see that from those dates that AAPL is not doing poorly... pick 10/18/10 and all of a sudden it's performing poorly.

So I call bullshit to your analysis.

Real money my ass.

More than you can imagine.

Ten weeks is hardly "all of a sudden." Mid-October is when I noticed that it started to go flat and it has remained so for the entire period even as the markets rallied. From 10-25 AAPL is still underperforming. From 10-11, it's still underperforming. Go ahead and pick any start week between then and now, and see if the results are much different.

And here I thought I was due an apology for your completely unfounded accusation. Fat chance of that I guess.
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post #22 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Milmoss is just another fellow with "selective logic".

I do understand where he's coming from though. apple reached a high about then, and stayed there for a short while. Then, with the market as a whole, dropped. But as the market rose afterwards, Apple's stock was nudging behind, rather than leading. We can see that with the 3 month rolling averages.
post #23 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

The smartphone market is still growing.

Very true, but a lot of growth is now coming from Android for now, it caught up to the iOS marketshare... though who knows, android has serious problems now, that will only grow

also what does a hacked iOS count as XD
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

The tablet market is exploding

Apple should be able to keep dominance here, if competitors can't offer something the same size for less, before even counting the OS
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

The Mp3 player market has peeked with apple controlling 70%

i think Apple isn't gonna be able to sit here, certainly not grow very much, same with digital distrubution, like iTunes
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

the iPhone and iPad did not exist 4 years ago.

cash crop

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post #24 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I'm convinced that information like this will move Apple's shares in the right direction, and for us, that direction means up:

http://techcrunch.com/2010/12/27/chr...app-downloads/

Indeed. More people I've known for years and even people I recently met all have iPhone and iPads, many of their kids have iPod touch's ("touches"?)... The diversity of people warming up to Apple is incredible.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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post #25 of 55
The doctor is right-- after the pre-earnings run-up, AAPL has been pretty flat. For the year, the stock has not done as well as the company. People put more value in AMZN and CRM (ponzi scheme!) than AAPL. The things that could be holding them back:
  • Succession plan for SJ
  • Lack of understanding of business plan
  • Insane belief that $325 is too much for a share
  • Fear of margin erosion
  • Fear of growth rate erosion
  • Fear of market cap
  • Belief that competitors will catch up
  • Failure to take "decisive action" with cash
  • Concern that future growth will be limited by incumbents (music, movies, tv, cable, cell...)

Personally, I figure AAPL will be up 50% by the end of 2011.

But much more interesting will be the rocky ride of timing the earnings release for the Tuesday before an options expiration Friday!
post #26 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

But as we've discussed previously, that doesn't necessarily mean much. I look to the longer trends. The market might be holding back because of uncertainty of when a Verizon phone will arrive, how many iPads will sell this quarter, etc. It's still moving in the right direction, and that's important. Apple, being mostly a consumer company is tied to unemployment numbers and shopping results. As those numbers seem to be looking better, we may expect to see more of a rise. I believe Apple again hit a new high today.

I don't claim to know what it means. I was just stating a fact. I think facts should come before interpretation. AAPL was doing just fine earlier in the year and leading the markets when the economic prospects were more shaky, so I don't see where the consumer market plays into the stock's period of anemic performance. I suspect that investors were spooked by the less-than-huge iPad numbers and lower margin forecasts and will remain cautious until the next earnings report in January.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Milmoss is just another fellow with "selective logic".

Failing any counterargument, insults always work.
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post #27 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I'm convinced that information like this will move Apple's shares in the right direction, and for us, that direction means up:

http://techcrunch.com/2010/12/27/chr...app-downloads/

Apple's first quarter will be outstanding but if the analysts are choosing numbers like Wu then it won't matter... all of Wu's numbers except for iPad seem to be at the very top.

4.2 million Macs... hmmmmmm, really... I don't think Xmas is a time for Macs... maybe MBPs will do well.

16 million iPhones... well, maybe... I actually think it will be a tad more.

17 million iPods... that is pushing it imo

The real story will be in iPad numbers... 6 million... I originally thought there's be 9-10 million... I'll revise that down to 7.5 - 8 million ... this is where AAPL could gain some traction.

News stories in 2011 that could bring traction... heavy volumes in China, a Verizon phone, iPad 2, iP5... and maybe a mystery product.
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post #28 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

The doctor is right-- after the pre-earnings run-up, AAPL has been pretty flat.

There is a difference between flat and "substantially underperfroming".
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post #29 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

There is a difference between flat and "substantially underperfroming".

Both are true. Flat might even be a good thing if the markets are declining, but that has not been the case over this time period. They have rallied, with AAPL left far behind.
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post #30 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

There is a difference between flat and "substantially underperfroming".

Not when everything else is up. It's a fashion show.

...but, if you are using options conservatively rather than just pure stock, the 3-5% is much more like 12-50% gain. I'm not complaining about what my AAPL holdings have done in the last 3 months!
post #31 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

The doctor is right-- after the pre-earnings run-up, AAPL has been pretty flat. For the year, the stock has not done as well as the company. People put more value in AMZN and CRM (ponzi scheme!) than AAPL. The things that could be holding them back:
  • Succession plan for SJ
  • Lack of understanding of business plan
  • Insane belief that $325 is too much for a share
  • Fear of margin erosion
  • Fear of growth rate erosion
  • Fear of market cap
  • Belief that competitors will catch up
  • Failure to take "decisive action" with cash
  • Concern that future growth will be limited by incumbents (music, movies, tv, cable, cell...)

Personally, I figure AAPL will be up 50% by the end of 2011.

But much more interesting will be the rocky ride of timing the earnings release for the Tuesday before an options expiration Friday!

I wonder why the analysts who are so often quoted in the press are able to remain gainfully employed. They are often so off the mark it is laughable. Is their mission simply to damage AAPL's stock price to the point where it makes sense for their institutional investors? They should all sod off and die in a swamp.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

Reply
post #32 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Not when everything else is up. It's a fashion show.

...but, if you are using options conservatively rather than just pure stock, the 3-5% is much more like 12-50% gain. I'm not complaining about what my AAPL holdings have done in the last 3 months!

I would not call it a fashion show, but an investment show. Making money is always in fashion. The basic investing continuum is still risk vs. reward. Compare to index funds. They are very unexciting performers by definition, trading off potential reward for lowered risk. Whenever index funds are outperforming riskier investments over a significant period of time, it might be a good place to start thinking about what you are getting for the risk exposure.
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post #33 of 55
it'd be fun to see millmoss' financial records.
post #34 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacRR View Post

it'd be fun to see millmoss' financial records.

You aren't going to, but what point you think you are making is beyond me.
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post #35 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I would not call it a fashion show, but an investment show. Making money is always in fashion.

While I understand the rest of the comment, please explain how CRM can be more than a fashion show...

The only thing I consider a real risk with AAPL (2-year horizon) is the sudden departure of Steve Jobs.

CRM on the other hand needs to hope everybody is really bad at math.
post #36 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Indeed. More people I've known for years and even people I recently met all have iPhone and iPads, many of their kids have iPod touch's ("touches"?)... The diversity of people warming up to Apple is incredible.

A friend of mine called me this afternoon. A few months ago his PC went south. his son, who is almost 40 (I just say that so we get an idea that he's not a kid), went out and bought him an iMac. He loves it. His son has a MacBook. Well, his son just bought an iPad for himself, and one for his mom who wanted one after seeing mine. My friend said he will get one next year when the new one comes out.

I'm not surprised Apple's products have been making the top of the most wished for lists.
post #37 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

While I understand the rest of the comment, please explain how CRM can be more than a fashion show...

The only thing I consider a real risk with AAPL (2-year horizon) is the sudden departure of Steve Jobs.

CRM on the other hand needs to hope everybody is really bad at math.

What do you mean by CRM?

I guess we could have fun debating the meaning of "fashion show" as it relates to investing, but I'm not sure I see where it goes. The point I made is that buying individual stocks with high risk/high potential reward profiles like AAPL have to beat the broader indexes or you're better off with the much safer index funds. BTW, I own them too. (Dull, but they help you sleep at night.)

I haven't necessarily changed my longterm view of AAPL, but the last couple of months has made me squirm a little.
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post #38 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

The doctor is right-- after the pre-earnings run-up, AAPL has been pretty flat. For the year, the stock has not done as well as the company. People put more value in AMZN and CRM (ponzi scheme!) than AAPL. The things that could be holding them back:
  • Succession plan for SJ
  • Lack of understanding of business plan
  • Insane belief that $325 is too much for a share
  • Fear of margin erosion
  • Fear of growth rate erosion
  • Fear of market cap
  • Belief that competitors will catch up
  • Failure to take "decisive action" with cash
  • Concern that future growth will be limited by incumbents (music, movies, tv, cable, cell...)


Personally, I figure AAPL will be up 50% by the end of 2011.

But much more interesting will be the rocky ride of timing the earnings release for the Tuesday before an options expiration Friday!

I like the fact that the stock has gone up over 54% this year even though the companies performance was better. I really begin to get nervous when the P/E gets into the 30's. This way it stays in sane numbers. If Apple's stock goes up two thirds as much as the companies numbers, that's ok by me. The lower the P/E the better the investment over the longer term, and the better chance they will offer some cash to stockholders, which, I've begun thinking a few months ago, is about time.
post #39 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

The lower the P/E the better the investment over the longer term, and the better chance they will offer some cash to stockholders, which, I've begun thinking a few months ago, is about time.

My world, and welcome to it.
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post #40 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

You aren't going to, but what point you think you are making is beyond me.

My point?

Well.. mostly that given your analytical skills- there's not much chance you are making a lot of money. who cherry picks a period of time to provide an example of a stock performing poorly, when in fact it has done quite well?

Seeing as a company reports their performance every qtr- you might want to follow suit. 10 week period? lol. my apple stock has kicked ass for the last three years... where would I be if I panicked every ten weeks?

What analysis you think you're making is beyond me... touche!
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