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Report: Apple ordering 65 million iPad screens for 2011

post #1 of 54
Thread Starter 
While most market estimates figure Apple will sell 45-48 million iPads next year, the company has reportedly placed orders with suppliers for 65 million 9.7 inch iPad displays.

According to a report by DigiTimes, Apple is believed to have placed orders for an estimated 35 million iPad displays from LG and another 30 million split between Samsung and Chimei Innolux.

The report notes that the volume of orders Apple is said to have placed with its suppliers indicates that the company "is very optimistic about the tablet PC market in 2011, and it may also mean that Apple is overbooking panel capacity." DigiTimes research has delivered a spotty record.

Apple eats up tablet screen supply

By the end of 2010, Apple is expected to have purchased 16.75 million screens for iPads, the report stated, all of which come from Taiwan's component manufacturers. In November alone, LG produced 1.5 million screens for Apple, while Samsung delivered another 1.2 million.

Through the end of the September quarter, Apple has reported selling 7.46 million iPads. That indicates a balance of nearly 9.2 million screens, minus the number Apple has actually sold in the winter quarter of 2010. If the company were actually running into overbooked panel capacity, the problem should already be evident.

Instead, Apple is now said to be bringing on Chimei Innolux as a new supplier of iPad displays in addition to LG and Samsung. Analysts' expectations for iPad sales in 2011 may not take into consideration everything the company is doing to sell its new tablet, including efforts to push iPad into the enterprise.

iPad screen size difficult for competitors to match

Apple's decision to offer iPad exclusively in the 9.7 inch screen size will likely lower component pricing in a way that only benefits Apple, while competitors continue to design and build 5 and 7 inch screens that don't benefit from the massive economy of scale Apple's iPad high volume sales are creating.

In October, Apple's chief executive Steve Jobs said "our potential competitors [in tablets] are having a tough time coming close to iPad's pricing. iPad incorporates everything we've learned about building high value products. We create our own A4 chip, software, battery chemistry, enclosure, everything. This results in an incredible product at a great price. The proof will be in the pricing of our competitors' products, which will offer less for more."

Jobs suggested that iPad competitors were using smaller screens because they couldn't afford to use larger screens, and were therefore ignoring the drawbacks related with trying to shoehorn a tablet interface into a 7 inch screen less than half the size of the iPad's.

"We think the 7 inch tablets will be dead on arrival, and manufacturers will realize they're too small and abandon them next year. They'll then increase the size, abandoning the customers and developers who bought into the smaller format," Jobs predicted.

iPad eats up tablet market, netbooks, PCs

Apple currently faces no credible competitors in the tablet market, particularly in corporate circles. Next year however, Apple is expected to face emerging competition from a new group of tablets running Android 3.0; HP's new PalmPad; RIM's PlayBook and a second run of Microsoft's Windows 7 tablets.

The iPad hasn't just taken over the tablet market; it has also killed growth among netbooks and, according to Morgen Stanley, has already eaten up 25 percent of PC notebook sales this year since it went on sale in April. In September, the firm revised its projected sales from 37 to 60 million tablets next year, saying the Dell Streak and Samsung Tab would also contribute to the trend toward tablets and away from conventional PCs.
post #2 of 54
Then there's no screen upgrade for the iPad 2.
post #3 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by haruhiko View Post

Then there's no screen upgrade for the iPad 2.

It seems... \

But when does Apple presets new iPad? Probably in January?

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post #4 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by haruhiko View Post

Then there's no screen upgrade for the iPad 2.

How do you figure that? \
post #5 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by haruhiko View Post

Then there's no screen upgrade for the iPad 2.

exactly!
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post #6 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by jca666us View Post

How do you figure that? \

Because, according to the article, they have already ordered the screens. And if the screens had been an upgraded screen, the article would have mentioned it.
post #7 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by giosaccone View Post

It seems... \

But when does Apple presets new iPad? Probably in January?

No earlier than Jan 28, 2011... and no later than when necessary!
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post #8 of 54
Oh... a "rumor" you say... from DigiTimes, you say............ >belch<...

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post #9 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

No earlier than Jan 28, 2011... and no later than when necessary!

I like this element!

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post #10 of 54
Quote:
In September, the firm revised its projected sales from 37 to 60 million tablets next year, saying the Dell Streak and Samsung Tab would also contribute to the trend toward tablets and away from conventional PCs.

The Dell Streak and Galaxy Tab should be listed in the phone category, not tablet.
post #11 of 54
wow thats incredible if true
post #12 of 54
I hope they're 65 million Retina displays! I'll take one!
post #13 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris_CA View Post

Because, according to the article, they have already ordered the screens. And if the screens had been an upgraded screen, the article would have mentioned it.

Oh come on it is a rumor from DigiTimes. That is bad enough but on the other hand they have claimed nothing other than screen counts. If anything the expansion of suppliers may indicate harder to manufacture screen are coming.
post #14 of 54
If true, iPad alone: 65*600*0.2*[say, 16x]/900 = $135 - $140.

Wow. (Subject to a number of assumptions, and assuming my arithmetic is correct).
post #15 of 54
I really hope those are a minimum of SuperAmoled screens but would be great if they were Retina screens.
post #16 of 54
Upgraded screen is probably a given othewise why would Apple have to order so many so far in advance. Keep in mind the source of info is poor and I would take anything they say with a grain of salt.
post #17 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by lav1daloca View Post

I really hope those are a minimum of SuperAmoled screens but would be great if they were Retina screens.

The current screens are superior to AMOLED. Contrast is almost as good and color accuracy is much better. When you are displaying mostly colored or white pixels, the AMOLED has horrible power consumption too.
post #18 of 54
OK get Retina or AMOLED screens out of your heads now else you are gonna get disappointed!
post #19 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris_CA View Post

Because, according to the article, they have already ordered the screens. And if the screens had been an upgraded screen, the article would have mentioned it.

Possibly. Seems like flimsy logic to base your opinion on.
post #20 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

If true, iPad alone: 65*600*0.2*[say, 16x]/900 = $135 - $140.

Wow. (Subject to a number of assumptions, and assuming my arithmetic is correct).

I did the same calculation when I read this, and came up with about the same numbers.

AAPL will hit $500 before the Jan 2012 earnings call if this report is accurate (and if Apple actually sells as many as they think they will).

I might be able to retire before I die!
post #21 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by haruhiko View Post

Then there's no screen upgrade for the iPad 2.

There's no way Apple would let a second-gen get by without Retina. I think you'll see both a camera and new display at the minimum. Especially since there are other players in the game.
post #22 of 54
Quote:
OK get Retina or AMOLED screens out of your heads now else you are gonna get disappointed!

Agreed.

What you should be hoping is a front facing camera, more ram, maaaybe better speakers, and a tiny bit more battery life. iPads are already pushing the limits in display technology, and Retina displays at 9.7" size are going to cost a fortune for the next 5 years.
post #23 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by LTMP View Post

I did the same calculation when I read this, and came up with about the same numbers.

AAPL will hit $500 before the Jan 2012 earnings call if this report is accurate (and if Apple actually sells as many as they think they will).

I might be able to retire before I die!

Just hope the 16x gets a little better myself, but don't want to be too greedy! Some reasonably priced, effective forms apps for business and the analysts will start to catch on... Right now, at a minimum of $300/person/year, it is much cheaper to build your own if you have more than a few users.
post #24 of 54
That is probably just the screen. As we know plenty of stuffs got sandwiched between the backplate and touch layer.
post #25 of 54
The truth of the matter is probably far from this rumor and the posted comments. I highly doubt they've ordered 65M screens. A realistic prediction would be about half that number.

The screens will not be AMOLED. That technology is actually (at this time) inferior, and yields are way, way too low. It's unfortunate, but I also doubt that the screen resolution will be any better than the current model. Here's why:

Price for one. The iPhone's "Retina display" is 960x640 (614k) pixels while the iPad is 1024x768 (786k) pixels, but the iPhone screen is almost 3 times smaller. Smaller area, higher yields, lower cost.

Two - if the iPad screen were to become a "Retina display" it would have to reach a resolution of 2560x1920 (4.9M) pixels. That's a 6-fold increase. The current GPU in the A4 chip has a hard enough time driving 800 thousand pixels, let alone trying to drive 5 million. This would require a significant redesign of the A4 chip, and Apple has a history of reusing technology long after it's most efficient useful life span.

Don't expect a new display or a new CPU/GPU in the the iPad2. If we're lucky, we'll see a 1280x960 resolution along with a Cortex A9 based CPU in iPad3 in 2012. Maybe in ~4 years we'll see a "Retina display" and a souped-up Cortex A9 (A10?) chip with the yet-to-be-announced Series6 PowerVR graphics in iPad5... but not this round.
post #26 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by markb View Post

Agreed.

What you should be hoping is a front facing camera, more ram, maaaybe better speakers, and a tiny bit more battery life. iPads are already pushing the limits in display technology, and Retina displays at 9.7" size are going to cost a fortune for the next 5 years.

Finally, someone with a clue.

There is no way the supply chain can offer 65 million 9.7" Retina displays at an affordable price right now. Heck, I don't think they could manufacture that quantity at any price right now.
post #27 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris_CA View Post

Because, according to the article, they have already ordered the screens. And if the screens had been an upgraded screen, the article would have mentioned it.

Like they would know?

The same rumors were appearing before the introduction of the iPhone 4. Nobody seemed to know anything about the Retina Display until Steve introduced it on stage.
post #28 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by success View Post

There's no way Apple would let a second-gen get by without Retina. I think you'll see both a camera and new display at the minimum. Especially since there are other players in the game.

i would LOVE to see a retina display on the iPad, but it will not happen - that would push the resolution to 2530x1897 pixels.

for comparison, their THOUSAND DOLLAR, 27" monitor has a resolution of 2560x1440. it's just a monitor - no storage, no a4 processor, no 3g...

[edit: ok the ONLY way the iPad will get a retina display is if apple redefines what a "retina display" is, WAY down from 326ppi to around 150ppi. it's that's the case, you're not getting a better display, you're getting "better" marketing]
post #29 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Oh... a "rumor" you say... from DigiTimes, you say............ >belch<...

LOL It’ll be 100M in a couple week.s

Quote:
Originally Posted by desarc View Post

i would LOVE to see a retina display on the iPad, but it will not happen - that would push the resolution to 2530x1897 pixels.

That’s if you define it as 326ppi, which Apple does not. Jobs stated, if I recall correctly, that with perfect vision — referring to 20/20 vision — from 10-12” away could not discern separate pixels. This was discovered to be true with 12” allowing for 18/20 vision and a minimum 286 ppi.

But what if the average distance for a tablet is 18” then Apple could use something around 250 ppi and still ‘honestly’ market it as a Retina Display.

I’ve asked the question “How do you define Retina Display?” numerous times to people wanting a Retina Display and I’ve never received an answer.

That said, any increase in the display quality is welcome, but I imagine the resolution will likely stay the same for another year.

edit: Ah. I see you added more to your post.
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post #30 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

If true, iPad alone: 65*600*0.2*[say, 16x]/900 = $135 - $140.

Wow. (Subject to a number of assumptions, and assuming my arithmetic is correct).

Not sure. If you leave out the multiple and go straight to earnings, your calculation comes to about $8.66 per share. Current EPS is $15.15, so what you are really suggesting is EPS growth of over half from the iPad alone.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LTMP View Post

I might be able to retire before I die!

The more desirable order.
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post #31 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Ive asked the question How do you define Retina Display? numerous times to people wanting a Retina Display and Ive never received an answer.

Easy...60 pixels per degree at the normal viewing distance. A HDTV has this characteristic at the desired 30 degree horizontal field of view (aka horizontal viewing angle).

As you point out, the issue in defining what is a retina display with the iPhone and iPad is that there isn't as easy a definition of normal viewing distance. You don't want to use the HDTV definition unless you want to hold the device really really close to get 30 degree HVA.

The alternative is to use an arbitrary spec like 300 ppi minimum.
post #32 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onhka View Post

...Nobody seemed to know anything about the Retina Display until Steve introduced it on stage.

I would NOT argue with anyone claiming that analysts are a lot of hot air, but the LCD of iPhone 4 was looked at under the microscope and the resolution was known well in advance of the official announcement. It was all over the tech blogs.
post #33 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by mytdave View Post

Don't expect a new display or a new CPU/GPU in the the iPad2. If we're lucky, we'll see a 1280x960 resolution along with a Cortex A9 based CPU in iPad3 in 2012. Maybe in ~4 years we'll see a "Retina display" and a souped-up Cortex A9 (A10?) chip with the yet-to-be-announced Series6 PowerVR graphics in iPad5... but not this round.

In 4 years the quad core Cortex A15s will be yesterdays' news.

It strikes me as unlikely that the only thing the iPad 2 will add is a camera and more RAM.

iPhone -> iPhone 3G = 3G chip + GPS
iPhone 3G -> iPhone 3GS = Cortex A8 + PowerVR GPU
iPhone 3GS -> iPhone 4 = Cortex A8 Hummingbird + Retina display.

At which point did Apple not add something significant to the next generation iOS product? You could argue that the iPhone and iPhone 3G kept the same processor but my recollection was that the next gen processor (A8) wasn't shipping in qty until 2009.

The LG Optimus Dual Core A9 phone officially launched on the 16th and it's a lot faster than the iPhone 4. There's no way in hell Apple is going to allow competitors an A9 advantage for all of 2011.

My bet is a 32nm Cortex A9 based A5 for 2011. That gives them a process node advantage over the Android competitors (read as more battery life).
post #34 of 54
Wouldn't it be nice if some of those 65 mil screens would be matte.
post #35 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

My bet is a 32nm Cortex A9 based A5 for 2011. That gives them a process node advantage over the Android competitors (read as more battery life).

I think that is most likely. The only caveat to me, is if Apples tweaking of the Cortex-A8 could yield a significant power management advantage over having time with the Cortex-A9 that theyd continue with a the Cortex-A8, but I think that is highly unlikely when I look at what the A9 has to offer and the amount of time Apple has had with the design.
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post #36 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

My bet is a 32nm Cortex A9 based A5 for 2011. That gives them a process node advantage over the Android competitors (read as more battery life).

I won't bet against that.

It's about the time we should be seeing something from Apple's acquisition of P.A. Semi in April 2008. I wonder if the next-gen iDevice SoC will be it. It'll be interesting to see how Apple includes Intrinsity technology as well in upcoming processor designs.
post #37 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDoppio View Post

I would NOT argue with anyone claiming that analysts are a lot of hot air, but the LCD of iPhone 4 was looked at under the microscope and the resolution was known well in advance of the official announcement. It was all over the tech blogs.

Coud you supply some references.

Our logs showed a semiun-confirmed hint of the higher resolution coming hit our tech guys about two months before Jobs announced it.
post #38 of 54
Two points.

1) Apple have not finished with iDevices. We are not anticipating any, but they have more to come. Jobs said as much. ( Expect a games machine).
2) They have a lock on this 9.7 inch market. They are buying all these screens to control access from the competition.
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post #39 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

My bet is a 32nm Cortex A9 based A5 for 2011. That gives them a process node advantage over the Android competitors (read as more battery life).

Can they get the yield high enough for the 32nm process for the millions of ipads and iphones? AMD has major problems with 32nm yield right now. We are talking about close to 100 million ipad/iphones next year.
post #40 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Can they get the yield high enough for the 32nm process for the millions of ipads and iphones? AMD has major problems with 32nm yield right now. We are talking about close to 100 million ipad/iphones next year.

Thats the damn good question.
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