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Report: Apple slows iPad production, Kindle matches shipments

post #1 of 55
Thread Starter 
Shipments of Amazon's Kindle from suppliers in Taiwan reached 1.6 million units in December, matching the month's estimated iPad production, although Apple is ramping down to accommodate the coming new version, a new report says.

According to a new report by analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of Concord Equity Research, Apple has shifted iPad production from an estimated 2.1 million units in November to just 1.6 million in December in order to prepare for the launch of revised new tablet, expected to be announced in January.

This shift enabled Kindle production to match that of rapidly selling iPad for the month, indicating, Kuo wrote, that "Kindle is going to mass market from niche market," and that "iPad cannibalization of Kindle is not obvious."

Kindle shipments are expected to reach 4.5 million units in the first quarter of 2011, Kuo said. Global ebook reader sales have reached 12.1 million units, and are expected to reach 27 million next year. It's not clear if this number includes the iPad, which has already itself sold more than 7 million units in its first two quarters and is expected to sell another 5 to 10 million in the final winter quarter.

Amazon has been cautious about revealing sales numbers for its Kindle, but Kuo estimates the company has sold 5.4 million units this year since it improved the units' e-ink display with a higher quality "pearl" screen and discounted its price.

Amazon's chief executive Jeff Bezos claimed in a recent press release that the Kindle was selling well as the company's most popular online product. He also deflected reports of Apple's iPad destroying the Kindle's market by saying many users were buying both.

Kuo previously covered Apple-related research among Taiwan's component producers for Digitimes.
post #2 of 55
But is it in the report that Apple's slowdown is in preparation for iPad2, or is that Dilger's inference? I would tend to agree with him if that's the case, but I just wanted to check whether the analysis on that matter was Kuo's or Dilger's.
post #3 of 55
Good news: We've sold a lot of e-readers and currently keeping up with iPad sales.

Bad news: We've had to drastically cut prices on our product to do so.
post #4 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by artificialintel View Post

But is it in the report that Apple's slowdown is in preparation for iPad2, or is that Dilger's inference? I would tend to agree with him if that's the case, but I just wanted to check whether the analysis on that matter was Kuo's or Dilger's.

No doubt the TRUTH is that Apple is drastically scaling back orders because nobody is buying the iPad, and everyone is flocking to the Kindle instead. Thanks for the "inference," troll.
post #5 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Archos View Post

No doubt the TRUTH is that Apple is drastically scaling back orders because nobody is buying the iPad, and everyone is flocking to the Kindle instead. Thanks for the "inference," troll.

I think youre being really harsh. I dont see his post as trollish at all. Perhaps overly critical of Dilger, but there seems to be plenty of posters here that are.
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post #6 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Archos View Post

No doubt the TRUTH is that Apple is drastically scaling back orders because nobody is buying the iPad, and everyone is flocking to the Kindle instead. Thanks for the "inference," troll.

Wow! I think that was uncalled for... I think he is just asking who made the inference, nothing about its implications.

I'd suggest to read the original source, but not to call him troll.
post #7 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by artificialintel View Post

But is it in the report that Apple's slowdown is in preparation for iPad2, or is that Dilger's inference? I would tend to agree with him if that's the case, but I just wanted to check whether the analysis on that matter was Kuo's or Dilger's.

The paragraph starts with "According to ... " That leads me to believe that the inference is in the report and AI is reporting it... Just my 2 cents
post #8 of 55
The other missing part of this rather slim article (slim by Dilger's standards, anyway) is why anyone should believe Mingchi Kuo (which is the correct spelling according to Google).

What's his track record? Why is he more credible? All I saw was an estimate by Kuo in a Forbes article:

http://www.forbes.com/2010/12/23/ipa...ts-misses.html

Quote:
Laptops

Despite concerns that the rise in popularity of tablets would cannibalize laptop sales, Apple's late 2010 debut of their thinnest laptop yet, the Macbook Air, brought mostly positive reviews from critics and consumers alike. Concord Securities analyst Mingchi Kuo predicts sales of 700,000 units in the fourth quarter.

The other thing... this guy was head analyst at DigiTimes. Why does AI have such a you-know-what for DigiTimes? Do you guys have some kind of revenue sharing agreement, or affiliate program that pays AI for clicks? To be blunt, I add a huge discount to every story that comes down the tubes from AI these days. The click-baiting is really getting old.

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post #9 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by iStud View Post

The paragraph starts with "According to ... " That leads me to believe that the inference is in the report and AI is reporting it... Just my 2 cents

The only reason I'm unsure is the last phrase, in which Dilger writes "...expected to be released in January" instead of "...which Kuo expects to be released in January." It makes it sound like Dilger is adding background - a necessary element in this article, but I'm not sure where Kuo's statement ends and background-adding begins. If I saw a link to the original article I would read it but I don't.

As I said before, I agree with Kuo/Dilger's inference, but it would be good to know if Kuo's research and analysis supports that independently.
post #10 of 55
They aren't even remotely in the same market as iPad is a general purpose device and Kindle is at the opposite end as a highly targeted device. It is sort of like comparing Pickup truck sales to Mini sales. The vehicles serve entirely different markets. Even better it is like comparing pickup sales to bicycles.

Kindle like iPad, is the best example of currently available hardware for the markets they are targeted at.
post #11 of 55
Hey, I think Amazon has created a product that fits the marketplace. It's a good deal cheaper than an iPad, so it can be treated more casually. (Like, uh, reading in the tub. Or even taking it on a NYC subway - I might be nervous with an iPad there.)

On the other hand, it won't do everything an iPad can do. It's not color, just for basics, and you wouldn't surf the web with it. It's not a substitute PC.

Each product has its strengths, each has its place. No one's the loser here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

It is sort of like comparing Pickup truck sales to Mini sales.

Sure. You're not going to pick up your girl in a pickup truck (well, I'm not picking up MY girl that way, but you go ahead). And you're not going to haul your boat with a Mini. Makes sense for some people to have both.

Anyway, I'm glad for Amazon.
post #12 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

They aren't even remotely in the same market as iPad is a general purpose device and Kindle is at the opposite end as a highly targeted device. It is sort of like comparing Pickup truck sales to Mini sales. The vehicles serve entirely different markets. Even better it is like comparing pickup sales to bicycles.

Kindle like iPad, is the best example of currently available hardware for the markets they are targeted at.

Absolutely agree, I don't know why people insist on comparing Kindles to iPads. If I bought an iPad, it wouldn't be as an e-reader. Likewise if I bought a Kindle, it wouldn't be as an email client/browser/media device or gaming machine.

The logic for this seems to be as simplistic as 'they're both small and kinda tablet-shaped, they must be competitors!'. I see a place in the market for both, at least until someone invents a full-colour, dynamic e-ink display...and I haven't heard any mention of such a technology.
post #13 of 55
I am not sure there is much reason to even compare the sales of iPads and Kindles. There is not much connection. The iPad can be a book reader, it can also be a million other things ... It can be a calculator too but who would compare iPad sales and calculator sales? I saw a report yesterday somewhere that many iPad owners also buy Kindles so it's not an either or scenario as perhaps an iPad or a PlayBook purchase might be perceived.
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post #14 of 55
I hear Microsoft is ramping up production of the Kinect to 1.6 Million units per month, while the New Jersey Cranberry Association is CUTTING production to 1.6 Million pounds of cranberries.
post #15 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mister Snitch View Post

Sure. You're not going to pick up your girl in a pickup truck (well, I'm not picking up MY girl that way, but you go ahead). And you're not going to haul your boat with a Mini. Makes sense for some people to have both.

Anyway, I'm glad for Amazon.

I suppose that depends upon the size of your girl friend. Some girls would have problems getting stuffed into a Mini!!!! We are talking tall girls here guys, your can quiet your dirty minds right now.

As a side note I can't justify having two vehicles. I can however see a reason to have both a Kindle and an iPad.
post #16 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobringer View Post

I hear Microsoft is ramping up production of the Kinect to 1.6 Million units per month, while the New Jersey Cranberry Association is CUTTING production to 1.6 Million pounds of cranberries.

Cranberry... is that a new product by that Canadian company... why are they basing themselves in NJ?!

Hmmmmm... interesting...
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post #17 of 55
Meanwhile, in other illegal insider news we're publishing for your ad clicks...
post #18 of 55
Why do people think the new iPad will be announced in January? Apple quit Macworld so they could STOP announcing new products right after Christmas.
post #19 of 55
It makes no sense to me either.

There is no reason for Apple to preannounce the iPad 2. They will announce and will need enough inventory for immediate shipment (or within a week) to select markets, with a staggered rollout to the rest of the world over months.

That's probably a two-month production ramp and it's unlikely that a new iPad has already been in production for a month for a January launch. Most likely, Apple's manufacturing partners will ramp iPad 2 production starting January for a mid-March launch; they will lose about two weeks of production in early February because the factories will be shut down for the Chinese lunar new year.
post #20 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Magic_Al View Post

Why do people think the new iPad will be announced in January? Apple quit Macworld so they could STOP announcing new products right after Christmas.

Then why did they announce the iPad in January last year?

Assumptions as to why Apple quit MW are just that. Assumptions. I certainly agree (to assume) that Apple doesn't want to be FORCED into a schedule and that's likely ONE of the reasons they pulled out of MW. I certainly don't think it was "we don't want to ever release products in January." It was the forced nature of MW.
post #21 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Solipcyst View Post

Good news: People will buy high-margin eBooks from us over and over again.

Bad news: margins on e-books aren't that high
post #22 of 55
edit: Pipped by bobringer.
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post #23 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

It makes no sense to me either.

There is no reason for Apple to preannounce the iPad 2. They will announce and will need enough inventory for immediate shipment (or within a week) to select markets, with a staggered rollout to the rest of the world over months.

That's probably a two-month production ramp and it's unlikely that a new iPad has already been in production for a month for a January launch. Most likely, Apple's manufacturing partners will ramp iPad 2 production starting January for a mid-March launch; they will lose about two weeks of production in early February because the factories will be shut down for the Chinese lunar new year.

There's certainly reason to preannounce. An announcement 2 days before Motorola announces their Android based tablet would certainly take all the wind out of Motrola's sales. Or... how about make the announcement on the day the Playbook is released?

Apple has a habit of taking a big fat dump on competitors announcements in this way. Last year was a whole lot of fun watching them punt to Balmer... let Balmer commit to his crap product on stage, and then a week later say "ok, they had their fun... but here's the right way to do things."
post #24 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

edit: Pipped by bobringer.

Yes, but your post was dead on and had links to back it up ;-)
post #25 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Magic_Al View Post

Why do people think the new iPad will be announced in January? Apple quit Macworld so they could STOP announcing new products right after Christmas.

Apple can announce the iPad 2 anytime after Jan 28, and not be faced with any massive XMAS returns.

Apple may not need to announce in January -- but they could, to keep ahead of competition.

Then, there is the fine art of balancing channel inventory and production to meet projected customer demand -- all the while complicated by EOLing the current line and introducing a follow-on.

AIR, Apple likes to keep 2-3 weeks of inventory in the channel.

So, assuming the channel is in balance, ramping down in December suggests an announcement/availability in late January - early February.

A further complication may be what Apple decides to offer as an entry model -- based on the iPhone, it will be a low-end (or mid) iPad 1 -- which one? WiFi only? WiFi + 3G? Both?

In another thread I discussed the possibility that the iPad could be repurposed for specialty uses/markets. If this is true, the iPad manufacturing could be ramping down, while ramping up for for new iPads and new iDevices with similar size displays -- the rumored 65 million displays on order for 2011.
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post #26 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mister Snitch View Post

Hey, I think Amazon has created a product that fits the marketplace. It's a good deal cheaper than an iPad, so it can be treated more casually. (Like, uh, reading in the tub. Or even taking it on a NYC subway - I might be nervous with an iPad there.)

On the other hand, it won't do everything an iPad can do. It's not color, just for basics, and you wouldn't surf the web with it. It's not a substitute PC.

Each product has its strengths, each has its place. No one's the loser here.

Good points, but I for one am trying to pare down my digital equipment....too many cables and chargers. All I want is my iPhone 4 which is my camera, GPS (TomTom) Video camera, iPod, Nike GPS, etc., etc., all in one unit. A second gen wifi only iPad (I have my iPhone 4 for 3G) and maybe an 11" MBA, my wireless Brother MFCW795 printer, an ATV/NetFlix plus a 60" flat screen TV and I'm done.

I'm really tired of all these one trick ponies and their cables, pwr bricks, etc. Anyway, when I leave the house on my day off or for a run...I take my iPhone 4. When I leave the house on a business day I may take my iPad/MBA and my iPhone and I'm ready to conquer the world or at least least get thru the day!
post #27 of 55
I can't believe so many of you have gotten suckered into the so-called Kindle against the ipad war.
This is misleading, twisted reporting at its best.
post #28 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobringer View Post

There's certainly reason to preannounce. An announcement 2 days before Motorola announces their Android based tablet would certainly take all the wind out of Motrola's sales. Or... how about make the announcement on the day the Playbook is released?

Apple has a habit of taking a big fat dump on competitors announcements in this way. Last year was a whole lot of fun watching them punt to Balmer... let Balmer commit to his crap product on stage, and then a week later say "ok, they had their fun... but here's the right way to do things."

Ultimately, it's the product quality and customer satisfaction that wins sales, not the timing of the announcement.

Apple has no idea what Ballmer (or anyone else) is gonna say if they've booked Yerba Buena Center for a media event within a week. And it's not like they can change their product design in a few days. All these companies believe that what they are bringing to the customers is great. The customers will vote with their dollars.

I just don't seeing Apple announce two days before Motorola (or after) for a product that won't ship for a couple of months. The initial iPhone and iPad were one-off deals. Everything else has been, "here is it, come and get it" (or "place your order, it'll ship next week").

Preannouncing iPad 2 by a couple of months would depress sales of the current model. That's far more important than a game of one-upsmanship with the competition.
post #29 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

Good points, but I for one am trying to pare down my digital equipment....too many cables and chargers.

I'm with you. It's not just the excessive amounts of hardware. It's also the amount of time I spend fiddling with this crap.

I fire up iTunes and update my iOS apps while I'm working out then I sync my iPod touch and iPad. Really easy, almost zero work. I don't have to download twenty different files from fifteen websites with different login credentials.

I'm looking for the Mac App Store to do the same for me.
post #30 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Ultimately, it's the product quality and customer satisfaction that wins sales, not the timing of the announcement.

[]

Preannouncing iPad 2 by a couple of months would depress sales of the current model. That's far more important than a game of one-upsmanship with the competition.

Sure, that win sales, but proper timing can maximize sales. Thats the difference.

Apple is in a unique position, especially with the iPad, that they allows them to not have to rush to market their products. While the HW was finalized, there are still plenty of ways Apple can focus a special event. You can be certain they will monitor what comes out of CES and defend or attack as best suits their needs. This is business, which is the same as saying war.

As for pre-announcing products, do you realize Apple is has done this as long as I can remember, but that its also a viable strategy for companies and products that have mind share. The worst case scenarios are vapourware to detract customers from your competitors, but Apple demos a physical product live on stage. The worst offense from the new Apple seems to be withdrawing a feature from Mac OS X.
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post #31 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac.World View Post

Good news: We've sold a lot of e-readers and currently keeping up with iPad sales.

Bad news: We've had to drastically cut prices on our product to do so.

They really fit two different ereader niches. I don't see why the Kindle would suffer significantly. The kindle is the best for fiction. The iPad is the best for references, text books, and magazines. The only place where the Kindle suffers is that it can't do more then ebooks like the iPad. Some people may only buy the iPad because they want one device and are okay with the limitations of a universal tool over a dedicated one.
post #32 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Apple can announce the iPad 2 anytime after Jan 28, and not be faced with any massive XMAS returns.

There is a 14 day return policy on HW (30 days for the iPhone). So even last minute December 24th shoppers would have only until January 7th to return their iPad.

Even if the iPad 2: Electric USBoogaloo was announced and released on January 6th, the first day of CES it would still only be users who bought the iPad no earlier than the day before Xmas and who are willing to pay a 10% restocking fee who could return it.

I don’t see many people doing that as most people don’t seem to require the latest and greatest tech like we do. Despite some who think that sales would be fatally hurt if Apple announced a product and didn’t ship it that day, there are plenty of examples to that fact, evidence that even old stock thrives even after the new products are released (sometimes with a higher than retail price point), and a potential causation to suggest the time between announcement and release may grow as Apple has an exponentially increased hardship trying to keep leaks to a minimize as their mindshare and unit sales increase.


PS: Is XMAS an acronym for eXtensible Marketing to Acquire Sales?
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post #33 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Sure, that win sales, but proper timing can maximize sales. That’s the difference.

Apple is in a unique position, especially with the iPad, that they allows them to not have to rush to market their products. While the HW was finalized, there are still plenty of ways Apple can focus a special event. You can be certain they will monitor what comes out of CES and defend or attack as best suits their needs. This is business, which is the same as saying war.

As for pre-announcing products, do you realize Apple is has done this as long as I can remember, but that it’s also a viable strategy for companies and products that have mind share. The worst case scenarios are vapourware to detract customers from your competitors, but Apple demos a physical product live on stage. The worst offense from the new Apple seems to be withdrawing a feature from Mac OS X.

Well, as an AAPL shareholder, I trust that Apple will decide what they think is best.

I certainly don't think they're perfect, but if I'm going to have an issue with someone, I would start with the other 1999 companies in the Russell 2000.

Why don't those guys deliver like Apple? And why are we paying those CEOs so much? Jobs gets $1 a year.
post #34 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Archos View Post

No doubt the TRUTH is that Apple is drastically scaling back orders because nobody is buying the iPad, and everyone is flocking to the Kindle instead. Thanks for the "inference," troll.

1 - The iPad was introduced as a substitute for NetBooks, not Kindles.
2 - Apple has sold 21 million iPads since April 13, 2010 and the forecast per DigiTimes today is for 65 million in 2011 in an article posted yesterday.
3 - Netbook sales in 2009 were 32.2 million and in 2010 are estimated at 33.4 million per USA Today in an article also posted yesterday.
4 - According the "The Daily Feed" on Dec 22, Amazon will sell about 5 million Kindles in 2010

There is no way to really compare Kindles and iPads and there is also no way that the iPad is anything but an incredible, game changing success. I dont think Apple ever thought the iPad would replace the Kindle. Personally the iPad is all I need and i read a lot of books on my iPad (the majority downloaded from the iPad Kindle App) and newspapers and magazines on my iPad and there are others who like the Kindle better but that doesnt make the iPad or the Kindle failures. They are both game changers and both have their attractive features, price points, etc.
post #35 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

Good points, but I for one am trying to pare down my digital equipment....too many cables and chargers.

Wife and I. 27" iMac, wifi iPad, 2 iPhones.

My wife does her freelance graphic design work on the iMac. It is also our tv when she has down time (dropped cable so we just watch Netflix, iTunes, and other web content). I do my heavy duty stuff (finances, web work, etc) on the iMac. Handles updates for iDevices as well.

While she is using the imac, I can use the iPad to surf, email, set up appointments and dates, etc. Watch Netflix, listen to pandora and slacker, read my favorite source of news, rumors etc. Writing this post on the iPad now. Plus some mild work using numbers and other apps. On a trip, we take it with us and find a wifi hot spot to use it for news reading extensive email writing, etc. Show photos to friends and family on the device or on web when connected.

iPhones. One for each of us. Use these as expected while on the go. Access to web, phone, email, skype for international calls, etc. Plus camera, video and much much more.

MobileMe to keep everything synced with no fuss, no muss. Plus back up crucial files to iDisk ad host wife's website.

That's it. It works with a minimum or fuss. It's money making, entertainment, social, productivity, you name it. Uncle Steve, you rock. You're getting everything right for us non-geeks so ignore the haters and keep on keeping on.
post #36 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

There is a 14 day return policy on HW (30 days for the iPhone). So even last minute December 24th shoppers would have only until January 7th to return their iPad.

Even if the iPad 2: Electric USBoogaloo was announced and released on January 6th, the first day of CES it would still only be users who bought the iPad no earlier than the day before Xmas and who are willing to pay a 10% restocking fee who could return it.

I dont see many people doing that as most people dont seem to require the latest and greatest tech like we do. Despite some who think that sales would be fatally hurt if Apple announced a product and didnt ship it that day, there are plenty of examples to that fact, evidence that even old stock thrives even after the new products are released (sometimes with a higher than retail price point), and a potential causation to suggest the time between announcement and release may grow as Apple has an exponentially increased hardship trying to keep leaks to a minimize as their mindshare and unit sales increase.


PS: Is XMAS an acronym for eXtensible Marketing to Acquire Sales?


LOL at that last.

I believe some iPad resellers offer more liberal return policies than Apple.

But, you are correct, that most iPad buyers won't necessarily know that a new iPad is expected, and will have little buyers remorse.

We were going to get my granddaughter an iPad for XMAS (the X represents a cross), but she was fooling around smashed my daughters iPhone 3GS. As a lesson, we made her pay for a replacement. We all gave her some money for XMAS, in hopes that she would pay off her debt first. She did!

The good news is that her birthday is Jan 27 (she'll be 15). She told me she still wants an iPad! I 'splained to her that it might be best to wait -- as a newer version might be announced/available (at the same price) about the time of her bday...

She thinks that's an excellent idea!

So, I have a responsible granddaughter who is also a savvy buyer!
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post #37 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllanF View Post

1 - The iPad was introduced as a substitute for NetBooks, not Kindles.
2 - Apple has sold 21 million iPads since April 13, 2010 and the forecast per DigiTimes today is for 65 million in 2011 in an article posted yesterday.
3 - Netbook sales in 2009 were 32.2 million and in 2010 are estimated at 33.4 million per USA Today in an article also posted yesterday.
4 - According the "The Daily Feed" on Dec 22, Amazon will sell about 5 million Kindles in 2010

There is no way to really compare Kindles and iPads and there is also no way that the iPad is anything but an incredible, game changing success. I dont think Apple ever thought the iPad would replace the Kindle. Personally the iPad is all I need and i read a lot of books on my iPad (the majority downloaded from the iPad Kindle App) and newspapers and magazines on my iPad and there are others who like the Kindle better but that doesnt make the iPad or the Kindle failures. They are both game changers and both have their attractive features, price points, etc.

The last iPad numbers I read were about 7.5 million units sold through September 2010. Are you saying that Apple sold 13.5 million iPads in the last quarter?

Do you have a citation?

Most estimates I've read suggest total 2010 iPad sales of 11-14 million units.
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post #38 of 55
Dick's right. The number I've seen recently batted around for 2010 iPad sales is 16 million.

Where is this 21 million figure coming from?
post #39 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Archos View Post

No doubt the TRUTH is that Apple is drastically scaling back orders because nobody is buying the iPad, and everyone is flocking to the Kindle instead. Thanks for the "inference," troll.

iFan panties in a know alert!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"It's not clear if this number includes the iPad"

Nope because according the AI the iPad is a computer and should not be compared/classified as an e-reader.

Quick question though, how do I delete photos off of my iPad with our hooking it up to a computer....or umm I mean another computer since the iPad is a computer and not a e-reader?????
post #40 of 55
So The Kindle is selling well. Good for Amazon. It's a really good ebook reader.
Apple shouldn't really care though... right? I mean who would not buy an iPad because they have a Kindle?

I can see not buying an iPad for other reasons, but just because you already wanted a Kindle doesn't seem like a good reason. They don't really compete against each other.
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