Originally Posted by SpamSandwich
The other missing part of this rather slim article (slim by Dilger's standards, anyway) is why anyone should believe Mingchi Kuo (which is the correct spelling according to Google).
What's his track record? Why is he more credible? All I saw was an estimate by Kuo in a Forbes article:http://www.forbes.com/2010/12/23/ipa...ts-misses.html
The other thing... this guy was head analyst at DigiTimes. Why does AI have such a you-know-what
for DigiTimes? Do you guys have some kind of revenue sharing agreement, or affiliate program that pays AI for clicks? To be blunt, I add a huge discount to every story that comes down the tubes from AI these days. The click-baiting is really getting old.
EVERYBODY quotes Digitimes. They're one of the few publications based in Asia that does this kind of thing. They're right about half the time. Whether that's random or not, I don't know, though it seems ok.
Unless iPad sales are through the roof, it's likely that the end of December is a likely time to ramp down, as the March quarter is the slowest one, and if Apple kept up with sales, they may have enough in the pipeline to cut production and still not fall short.
I think we also have to remember that when the iPad first was announced, Apple had to move sales back about a month because of unexpectedly high Pre ordering, which overwhelmed their forecasts. Because of that, it's possible that Apple will introduce the new tablet earlier than expected, now that they have an understanding of demand. It could be that the original intention was to start sales of the tablet in February. If so, then that's possible for the new one. We hear so many different readings of what Apple has been ordering, how much, and when the ordering and production began, that it's difficult to know what's true, and some of it undoubtedly is.
I understand that Apple would announce a new product two or even three months before it arrives; the iPhone was announced six months early. But, once they have product selling, they wouldn't announce new product so far in advance, because, as we know, it would kill sales of current product. While those of us who follow Apple know what to expect in new product introductions, most people don't. So they keep buying until the day of the new product's arrival. But if Apple makes an announcement, then everyone will know, and it won't just be people like us that will wait.
This makes me think that if it's true that Apple is cutting down, it could be true that the new model will be out in February.
That's the logical deduction based on information that may or may not be correct, and that's how much it's worth. But if the info we've been getting over the past two months or so are correct, so will be my estimate.