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Piper: Apple not expected to enter new product categories in 2011

post #1 of 67
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With the calendar turning over to 2011, investment firm Piper Jaffray has made a prediction that Apple will improve its existing line of products, but will not enter any into any new categories this year.

Analyst Gene Munster said in a note to investors Monday that Apple's story in 2011 will likely be a continuation of the company's existing product lines, including the Mac, iPad, iPhone and iPod. Instead of entering new markets, he believes Apple will focus on new versions of its current major products.

Munster sees the launch of a Verizon-compatible CDMA iPhone as a 95 percent probability in the March quarter of 2011. He also expects to see a fifth-generation iPhone with near-field communication technology launch in the summer, with a new iPod touch offering similar e-wallet-style capabilities soon after.

He also said there is a 90 percent chance that Apple will debut cloud-based iTunes streaming services this year. The analyst also forecast an 80 percent chance that the iPad is offered with subsidies from wireless carriers, and a new iPad will launch in spring 2011.

Apple, of course, made a splash entering the tablet market with an announcement in early 2010. The iPad went on to become one of the company's hottest devices, quickly outselling the Mac.

Other major product launches in 2011 already announced by Apple include this week's launch of the Mac App Store on Thursday, and the release of Mac OS X 10.7 Lion in the summer. As usual, Munster believes Apple will refresh its iPod lineup in the fall, and will also issue redesigned MacBook Pros in the first half of 2011, with redesigned iMacs in the second half of the year.

Beyond 2011, Munster has stuck by his prediction that Apple will launch an Internet-connected television set in the next 2 to 4 years. As he said repeatedly throughout 2010, he believes an Apple-branded HDTV could launch as early as 2012.

"While Apple's commitment to the living room remains a 'hobby,' we continue to believe the company will enter the TV market with a full focus, as an all-in-one Apple television could move the needle when connected TVs proliferate," he said.

"Moreover, in terms of markets that would be entirely new categories for Apple and could move the needle, we believe the television market makes the most sense."

Piper Jaffray has maintained its overweight rating for AAPL stock, as well as its 12-month price target of $438.
post #2 of 67
"Apple, of course, made a splash entering the tablet market"

They didn't "enter" the tablet market. They defined and created it. There were no tablets before Apple (unless you count the thing the UPS guy carried with him), just laptop computers without keyboards, with touchscreens.

Apple may not "enter" a new market this year. But for all these (clueless) analysts know, they may create one. Or two.
post #3 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mister Snitch View Post

They didn't "enter" the tablet market. They defined and created it.

Thank you. I was wondering when someone would catch that.

Same could be said for smartphones, I'd think.
post #4 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mister Snitch View Post

"Apple, of course, made a splash entering the tablet market"

They didn't "enter" the tablet market. They defined and created it. There were no tablets before Apple (unless you count the thing the UPS guy carried with him), just laptop computers without keyboards, with touchscreens.

Apple may not "enter" a new market this year. But for all these (clueless) analysts know, they may create one. Or two.

What else can Apple get into? I already have too many devices (although I love each and every one of them!!). Between portable media players, phones, tablets, computers, and a TV set-top box, I don't really know what else Apple needs or wants to get into as a consumer electronics company.
post #5 of 67
is apple expected to enter a new market every year now? this analyst is saying stuff to get in the news...

anyway, i think a Television may be the next new thing we see from Apple. i'd love a 40" cinema display with built in Apple TV software. (once the app store opens anyway)
post #6 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by hittrj01 View Post

What else can Apple get into?

TVs. it's the last screen we look at that doesnt have an apple logo on the back.

i don't see them getting into cameras/camcorders, but rather improving the iPod/iPhone cameras. other than that, i don't know what else there is...
post #7 of 67
80% of all statistics are made up.
post #8 of 67
I think the improvement in cameras, and more importantly, image processing will be high on the list.
post #9 of 67
Apple "only" seems to create entirely new markets every 3-5 years. That's actually an amazing achievement -- to expect more is to expect the impossible.

But I do expect Apple to do something pretty amazing this year involving that NC server farm. A thought occurred to me the other day regarding what that facility might be used for. What if Apple were to provide APIs in the next version of iOS and Lion that make it possible for developers to seamlessly tap into the computing resources available in NC (and wherever else Apple builds them), in terms of storage, processing, and communication? And what if Apple also deals with the economics side of that equation -- making payment for use of those resources transparent and cheap? Perhaps a revamped Mobile Me would provide customers access to those resources at a reasonable price.

While it wouldn't constitute a new consumer product in the hardware sense, it would be revolutionary. There's been a lot of talk about the potential of "the cloud" (or, if you go back 10 years, Larry Ellison's thin client ideas). Perhaps Apple will move us closer to realizing that hypothetical potential. Speaking of Ellison, I wonder how much Oracle involvement there is in that NC facility...
post #10 of 67
I think it is wise they don't "enter" into any new products. Let's just hope they fix the products they have....

[Alarm didn't go off this AM]
post #11 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by OskiO View Post

I think it is wise they don't "enter" into any new products. Let's just hope they fix the products they have....

[Alarm didn't go off this AM]

You're absolutely right. Halt ALL innovation and product development until they solve the alarm bug. Totally. Thanks for the comment.
post #12 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post

You're absolutely right. Halt ALL innovation and product development until they solve the alarm bug. Totally. Thanks for the comment.

I love the way "Alarmgate" gets top news headlines while Android Trojan barely registers as news.
post #13 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

I love the way "Alarmgate" gets top news headlines while Android Trojan barely registers as news.

I think it's because Droid is for geeks while iPhone is for real people. Who cares if the geek phone has a bunch of geek problems. When the iPhone has an issue, it affects real people.
post #14 of 67
Only one person seriously thinks that Apple would get into manufacturing TV displays, and that is Gene Munster at Piper Jaffray, and he has been banging on about this idea for many years, since long before the first Apple TV was announced.

Gene Munster's stupid idea about Apple making a living-room-style TV has not been able to even take on board the latest changes that Apple made to the "Apple TV" hardware module, in particular the consumer-friendly $99 pricing, that will encourage many people to try it out.

It's too soon yet to see the effect of the $99 Apple TV on Xmas 2010 sales, but we have already heard that a million have been sold. I am sure that those sales will help Apple in its move into supplying TV content to Apple products such as the Mac, iPhone, iPad etc. and of course via the Apple TV to many HDTV screens made by so many different makers in so many different sizes.

I am equally sure that Apple will not turn into a home-appliance seller anytime soon.
post #15 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

I think it's because Droid is for geeks while iPhone is for real people. Who cares if the geek phone has a bunch of geek problems. When the iPhone has an issue, it affects real people.

This sums up the situation amazingly well.
post #16 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by hittrj01 View Post

What else can Apple get into? I already have too many devices (although I love each and every one of them!!). Between portable media players, phones, tablets, computers, and a TV set-top box, I don't really know what else Apple needs or wants to get into as a consumer electronics company.

One thing that I really miss is sort of central media server. Your right, I also have quite a number of devices now, and the last thing I want to do is to sync all of them all the time. A central media hub, with 2-3 HDs that also act as backup system could solve this problem. If this is done properly, this could just be the last and fantastic bit of kit you need to complete all the apple devices - including ATV.
post #17 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

I think it's because Droid is for geeks while iPhone is for real people. Who cares if the geek phone has a bunch of geek problems. When the iPhone has an issue, it affects real people.

That seems oversimplified but a comparison of a FaceTime ad to a Verizon Droid ad says you speaks the truth.
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post #18 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

I love the way "Alarmgate" gets top news headlines while Android Trojan barely registers as news.

Maybe because the android problem can be avoided...
post #19 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by iCarbon View Post

80% of all statistics are made up.

Well YOURS is.
post #20 of 67
I agree with others that the server farm will dish out some surprises. Personally, I would like to see them solidify their email/calendar services to be enterprise-ready. If they had an entry to replace the way overpriced outlook it would be a huge revenue stream.

As for a TV - to my mind it is a silly idea. There are a large number of entrenched players in that field and I don't think they could ever hope to make the margin levels that they are used to. In the short run they might, but in the long run they would not be sustainable.
post #21 of 67
If we look at consumer markets aside from transportation, kitchen, home/garden, food/consumption, and some entertainment [going to movies], the markets are rather limited. Apple has entered into markets with big potential: music players [although stereo speakers did not succeed], mobile game devices, cell [now smart phones], tablets [re-invented just like iPods reinvented MP3 players and business], and of course a continuing range of computers [laptop, desktop, and Pro work stations].

So what markets offer volume and impact for Apple, hhmmm:

Home Entertainment e.g., AppleTV [albeit successful compared to other devices], the media companies and their distributors are a major obstacle to Apple-style of innovation and so this is a very tough nut to crack and getting tougher. TVs are certainly an option, but not sure there is the transformational dimension of MP3 player to iPod, iPod Touch to Handheld gaming, iPhone to cell phone, or iPad to tablets in TV space. ApplyTV to an all in one TV? Perhaps this reflects my lack of imagination, but I don't see this as Apple's next big thing.

Enterprise as next big area, hhmmm, talk about ugly bottom feeding market for commodities, ick. Case in point, servers and storage traction. Perhaps cloud, well this is also tough and personally I think way oversold like SOA, Web Stuff, Portals, ESBs, ... saves money [maybe] but new capabiities are really lacking. This is not a fertile area either, lots of money but little innovation. And what innovation does happen is driven my consumer market bringing it into the enterprise like guerilla warfare [look at email, social networking, wifi, cell phones, iphones, and now ipads]. Best to be supportive of small and medium businesses [much more innovative for IT and continue to support consumer stuff into the enterprise.

Social Networking, hhmmm complicated and maybe opportunity there, but Facebook looks pretty agile and intimidating.

So what is left, retail? Well here is an interesting area. Recall Apple is great at disrupting its own business to create new value, get rid of what is becoming passe or obsolute [floppy, parallel/serial ports, CD/DVD, harddrives, flash, ...] hhmm what does this mean for distribution of SW and perhaps some classes of hardware. Should Amazon and Best Buy be concerned?

2011 and 2012 look to be very interesting as Apple continues to surprise us.
post #22 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mister Snitch View Post

There were no tablets before Apple (unless you count the thing the UPS guy carried with him), just laptop computers without keyboards, with touchscreens.

Apple may not "enter" a new market this year. But for all these (clueless) analysts know, they may create one. Or two.

sure, there were no "tablet" computers before apple invented them, just like there was no "Facetime" before Apple invented that. Apple is very good at inventing new names for existing tech.

i'm hoping Piper is wrong - i want to see an Apple/iOS in-dash system. Sync Suks.
post #23 of 67
I'm pleased. Apple seems resource stretched so a year of consolidation is probably they best thing they can do right now.
post #24 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by iCarbon View Post

80% of all statistics are made up.

56% of people know this.
post #25 of 67
I guess Apple finally ran out of ideas...
post #26 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tardis View Post

Only one person seriously thinks that Apple would get into manufacturing TV displays, and that is Gene Munster at Piper Jaffray, and he has been banging on about this idea for many years, since long before the first Apple TV was announced.

Gene Munster's stupid idea about Apple making a living-room-style TV has not been able to even take on board the latest changes that Apple made to the "Apple TV" hardware module, in particular the consumer-friendly $99 pricing, that will encourage many people to try it out.

It's too soon yet to see the effect of the $99 Apple TV on Xmas 2010 sales, but we have already heard that a million have been sold. I am sure that those sales will help Apple in its move into supplying TV content to Apple products such as the Mac, iPhone, iPad etc. and of course via the Apple TV to many HDTV screens made by so many different makers in so many different sizes.

I am equally sure that Apple will not turn into a home-appliance seller anytime soon.

I also think there's a good chance Apple will do a Tv. Despite what some people here are continually saying, a Tv seems to be a natural extension of Apple's product lines. A Tv is not an appliance, a fridge is an appliance, a washing machine is an appliance. A Tv is a product that is in the same category as what Apple is doing now, computing and home electronics.

I somehow don't think that all the patents Apple has recently gotten or applied for, involving 3D and backlighting is just for small handheld products. They've applied for a patent in LED backlighting which I read the other day which is unique, and has advantages over RGB backlighting that's expensive now, and bulky. When you apply that to a product, you can see that it's excellent for large monitors and Tv's, as well as small computers and handhelds.

Combine that witheir also unique 3D patents, and you have a way of making a large 3d Tv that doesn't need glasses. When might we see any of this? Hard to tell, and likely in small devices first, but the possibly for Apple to upend the large screen Tv segment is there, with the first non glasses 3d models. This also does holography, another unique component in the mix.

I wouldn't put it past them. tv is a very large business. It's exactly the kind of business Apple likes to get into and shake up. This would have all the manufacturers scrambling again.
post #27 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmmx View Post


As for a PHONE- to my mind it is a silly idea. There are a large number of entrenched players in that field and I don't think they could ever hope to make the margin levels that they are used to. In the short run they might, but in the long run they would not be sustainable.

There, now your post is fixed. It stated what you would have said in 2005, or so. Never underestimate the power of new technology used in ways that no one else is using it to change an industry.
post #28 of 67
It will be a busy year regardless. The iMac and MBP will need major redesigns for Sandy Bridge. OS X Lion is due. iPad 2 is coming (based on the leaked case moulds).

As for new markets, they are already in your pocket, your den and your living room. How about the car? But Apple's approach seems to be to find markets where things are being done poorly and enter the market and actually do it right (e.g. digital music players and iPod, cellphones and iPhone, iPad and tablets). But what is there horrendously bad in cars? Autodrive would be nice, but the driving experience overall is not terrible as it is.

In that sense (in the sense of fixing crap things) their biggest unfinished job is the computer, because people still find computers confusing, even the Mac. The Mac App Store will help a lot but there's more to be done. There are fundamental computing/visualization problems, like how you manage and easily browse large amounts of data. And speech recognition. And just the general stupidity of computers at understanding what the user wants to do. If you could just explain to the computer what you want, like with another person, you could have a lot less cluttered user interface. But that kind of thing is 30 years away I guess. But if they *could* get something like that working, it would be like the release of the original Macintosh, the whole audience would mess themselves.
post #29 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I also think there's a good chance Apple will do a Tv. Despite what some people here are continually saying, a Tv seems to be a natural extension of Apple's product lines. A Tv is not an appliance, a fridge is an appliance, a washing Mashona is an appliance. A Tv is a product that is in the same category as what Apple is doing now, computing and home electronics.

An appliance is an instrument, apparatus, or device for a particular purpose or use. The implication that it only applies to machines that are used for domestic use or in a kitchen is not the only or original meaning.

Putting that aside, how would a TV fit into their lineup? Where in there stores would they house dozens of TV models of various sizes to accommodate all the various needs and desires of even their top tier buyers? Or would they simply have a few different TV panel sizes that would work for everyone? It’s not like the PC market where you tend to sit about the same distance from the monitor regardless of the user.

What benefit does having the AppleTV in an AppleHDTV serve if you can buy a better and cheaper HDTV from another and then a $99 AppleTV? Does not switching inputs to connect to an AppleTV worth it? I think a layover for apps would be nice, but wouldn’t this be more easily resolved by partnering with various TV makers to offer a special AppleTV interface across multiple brands?

How much can they feasibly make from HDTVs? Here’s an article that shows Sony only made $300M for the entire year. How many HDTV models do they sell?

http://www.i4u.com/37320/sony-tvs-dr...ny-back-profit I see more of a market for Apple to make an internet appliance with the capabilities for television. Something more along the lines of Sony’s internet TVs.

http://www.sonystyle.com/webapp/wcs/...ns#googleTVSet
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post #30 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by hittrj01 View Post

What else can Apple get into? I already have too many devices (although I love each and every one of them!!). Between portable media players, phones, tablets, computers, and a TV set-top box, I don't really know what else Apple needs or wants to get into as a consumer electronics company.

Oh there's plenty. There's professional markets like Airlines and Travel. There's also a huge social media market that Apple can hit but I am not sure what is their stand on internets. =)

There's also automotive market that apple can go into.
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post #31 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I see more of a market for Apple to make an internet appliance with the capabilities for television. Something more along the lines of Sonys internet TVs.

And anyway it's not the TV itself that confuses people, it's the gaggle of boxes underneath, and that is what Apple TV replaces.
post #32 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mister Snitch View Post

There were no tablets before Apple... just laptop computers without keyboards, with touchscreens.

A.K.A "tablets"
post #33 of 67
Well, at least that's what I think Apple should get themselves into... Maybe they already have, but simply haven't told us yet.

Why should Ford's (Microsoft) SYNC and in Europe/ROW, Fiat's Blue&Me (Microsoft) be one of the few OEM In-Car Entertainment (ICE) available? Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if Google is (or already has) started due-diligence in this market.

What I'm looking for is a Apple SmartICE that can do, as examples, the following:

1. Remotely start my vehicle from my iPhone or other iOS (compatible) device
2. Sync my iTunes media
3. Show car diagnostics (e.g. Engine Oil Life, Tire Pressure) on my iOS device(s)
4. Set up a scheduled service (iCal'd of course) and include a diagnostic report
5. Sync a trip with way-points/sight-seeing, restaurants, traffic from my iPhone
6. Calculate estimated amount of fuel left and look for fuel stops with the lowest prices

I'm sure there are lots more we'd want a Apple SmartICE to do like SatNav, phone, text dictation/speaking, integrate with a sound system (e.g. Bose) etc., you get the idea, but feel free to chime in. Indeed, some features may already exist in other ICEs.
post #34 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Habañero View Post

A.K.A "tablets"

As a simplistic umbrella definition, sure, but you cant deny that Apple redefined the market.

Well see later this week how many tablets at CES are using Windows 7.
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post #35 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by YipYipYipee View Post

Well, at least that's what I think Apple should get themselves into... Maybe they already have, but simply haven't told us yet.

Why should Ford's (Microsoft) SYNC and in Europe/ROW, Fiat's Blue&Me (Microsoft) be one of the few OEM In-Car Entertainment (ICE) available? Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if Google is (or already has) started due-diligence in this market.

What I'm looking for is a Apple SmartICE that can do, as examples, the following:

1. Remotely start my vehicle from my iPhone or other iOS (compatible) device
2. Sync my iTunes media
3. Show car diagnostics (e.g. Engine Oil Life, Tire Pressure) on my iOS device(s)
4. Set up a scheduled service (iCal'd of course) and include a diagnostic report
5. Sync a trip with way-points/sight-seeing, restaurants, traffic from my iPhone
6. Calculate estimated amount of fuel left and look for fuel stops with the lowest prices

I'm sure there are lots more we'd want a Apple SmartICE to do like SatNav, phone, text dictation/speaking, integrate with a sound system (e.g. Bose) etc., you get the idea, but feel free to chime in. Indeed, some features may already exist in other ICEs.

I think they are dominating the living room (not to be confused with the HEC) and the the car is the only place that Apple has always been a 3rd-party participant. I like the points you lis but I think this would be a harder but to crack than making a cable box for the US.
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post #36 of 67
An Apple television doesn't seem to make sense. People don't change their television sets very often. Apple wants you to buy a new model of an iDevice in a couple of years which is why the AppleTV box makes sense. Get the new one, install it in your home theater, put the old one in the guest bedroom or give to the kid who's going to college.

Apple needs to keep its priorities straight when dealing with the living room. They need to sign more content deals, particularly with the sports leagues before then can really dive into this market.

Besides that, the margins on television sets are far below what Apple's typical gross margins are. A television is a commodity. As an AAPL shareholder, I'd rather prefer to see them in something with a higher margin.
post #37 of 67
Markets Apple could enter, but probably wont:
  1. Dedicated game consoles
  2. Blu-ray players
  3. TVs
  4. Camcorders
  5. Printers

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post #38 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aizmov View Post

Markets Apple could enter, but probably wont:
  1. Dedicated game consoles
  2. Blu-ray players
  3. TVs
  4. Camcorders
  5. Printers

6. Remote control

That is one I want them to enter. 3rd-party offerings are poor and expensive.
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post #39 of 67
I'm not so sure, Solipsism. I can definitely see a need for such integrated technology. A SmartICE would be a key differentiator to the car manufacturers. Indeed, market studies have indicated a Ford SYNC system is a big check-mark (tic) on the features list, for those drivers in their 20's and 30's, buying their first new car.

I also think that consumers would really take notice of a Apple iOS equipped car, and have more cache than SYNC/Blue&Me (Microsoft), Bose and BMW (iDrive) put together.

Everyone is looking at the recurring revenue business model. And yes, the "TV" is where it may be easier to get revenue from media sales or gathering statistical data. Still, I'd prefer to be a big cog in a small machine.
post #40 of 67
I like the way Apple is getting into the TV business by sneaking the aTV into the mix and allowing it to AirPlay. I think if they gradually add features like an HD tuner and a cable pass through, a couple of extra ports, and an Apple brand HD antenna, they can position aTV as an inexpensive management center for the living room TV. Death by a thousand cuts to the cable box.

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