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Apple's iPhone maintains lead over Blackberry, Android in US

post #1 of 108
Thread Starter 
Apple continues to take the top position in smartphone market share, even in the US where a variety of hardware makers have released popular phones using Android. RIM's Blackberry platform takes the number two spot.

According to a new report by Nielsen, in the month of November sales of phones from all Android licensees together made up the largest segment by platform among "six month acquirers," with 40.8 percent of "adult smartphone customers" buying phones running Android.

Apple's share of these 'recent adult acquirers' was reported to be significantly less, at 26.9 percent, although Apple's assigned share had grown over the previous six months from 20.9 percent in June 2010, prior to the launch of iPhone 4.

RIM's BlackBerry platform came in third among 'recent adult acquirers,' making up 19.2 percent of the market, a significant drop from its 35 percent high in June. RIM's lost 15 percentage points appeared to be gobbled up by both Apple (which grew by 6 percentage points over the same period) and Android (which grew by 13).



However, the report notes that, "when it comes to overall consumer market share, Android OS (25.8%) is still behind Apple iOS (28.6%)." RIM figures in-between iOS and Android, with a 26.1 percent share of the overall market.

Apple's overall share of the smartphone market was up just over a percentage point across the last six months, while Android grew by nearly 11 percentage points and BlackBerry fell by nearly 8 percentage points.



Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

Nielson's latest figures contradict the notion that Android as a platform has already outpaced Apple's iOS in the US and globally, an idea that has gained populist traction despite the poor performance of Google's Android Market and the lack of support it is getting from key third party developers.

An earlier report by Gartner claimed Android shipments world wide had ballooned from 3.5 percent last year to a whopping 25.5 percent in the third quarter of 2010.

Gartner's data didn't show that growth coming from mainstream Android licensees such as Samsung, HTC and Motorola, however, instead crediting Android with tens of millions of units from "other" manufacturers.

Gartner's numbers differed from a parallel IDC mobile phone market report by an astounding 77 million units (the smartphone market itself is currently only 81 million), casting a credibility shadow over Gartner's figures and reporting.

Gartner's reliance on assumptions that high volume sales of no-brand phones in emerging markets are likely using Android actually spells problems for Android licensees in leading nations, as those volumes of phones do not add value to the platform's app market but may be contributing downward pricing pressure for licensees who are relying upon Android to deliver an affordable product.

A flood of tens of millions of Android phones by "other" manufacturers can only impede the global sales of HTC, Motorola and Samsung models while subtracting from the differentiated value those brands can deliver. HTC and Samsung have recently chosen to also release new Windows Phone 7 models, and Samsung launched its own Bada platform this summer in a hedge bet against Android, both indications that hardware makers are not comfortable with putting all their eggs in Google's basket.

Who's on first?

Another metric of smartphone sales and use, based on web share, was also recently used to suggest that RIM's BlackBerry platform had surged ahead of Apple's iOS in the US.

The surge appeared to be related to RIM's rollout of its first WebKit browser, and only appeared when the use of iPod touch devices were excluded from the platform tally. Globally, the StatCounter figures showed that Apple had taken over the top position in 30 countries, including all of North America, Europe and Australia. The second runner up was Symbian, with RIM's BlackBerry only taking a lead in South America and Android only leading in Samsung's home nation of South Korea.



A third metric, looking at mobile activations, was also recently used to suggest that Android had eclipsed iOS as a platform. Google began reporting activations earlier this year, with Apple taking issue with the numbers Google had announced and reporting that it was still ahead in September and again in October. Despite giving its software away, Google still don't appear to have eclipsed Apple in activations even with its 300,000 per day number reported last month.

A fourth metric, based on ad impressions cited by third party ad networks, assigned Apple's iOS and Google's Android a tied position at 37 percent of all smartphones last month. In that report, by Millennial Media, segregates "connected devices" into its own market segment apart from smartphones and simpler feature phones. Apple iOS makes up a large percentage of these "connected devices," which include the iPod touch and iPad.
post #2 of 108
This Dilger kid is more prolific than L. Ron Hubbard. LOL.

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post #3 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

This Dilger kid is more prolific than L. Ron Hubbard. LOL.

FUD and more FUD... as the war intensifies there will be more and more FUD from the companies and supporters [on edit - and detractors] involved.

I do think, though, that Apple may have to shorten their cycle... one new phone per year may not cut it.
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post #4 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

FUD and more FUD... as the war intensifies there will be more and more FUD from the companies and supporters involved.

I do think, though, that Apple may have to shorten their cycle... one new phone per year may not cut it.

exactly right on.

also they need to look at he jailbreak apps to see what people "want" they have lots of cool things cooking
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post #5 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

This Dilger kid is more prolific than L. Ron Hubbard. LOL.

That is one word for him. I think he is the most warped, bias blogger there currently is on the internet. He gives this site a BAD name. He should stick to his lame blog.
post #6 of 108
Once again, DED looks at a study and totally misinterprets the data. Android has surpased the iPhone in new sales. It's third place in market share only reflects the relative newness of the platform's popularity and it will almost certainly be in the top spot in another 6-12 months as more contracts expire on older BB devices and as more people get their first smart phone.

Also, why repeat the false interpretation of the Gartner data? They did not clain there were tens of millions of no name android phones. That came from a complete idiot not knowing how to read and interpret the data they published. Publishing this foolish crap makes AI look bad and the author look worse.
post #7 of 108
DED should have published the article right after the 2nd chart. The rest is "You Spin Me Round".
post #8 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

FUD and more FUD... as the war intensifies there will be more and more FUD from the companies and supporters [on edit - and detractors] involved.

I do think, though, that Apple may have to shorten their cycle... one new phone per year may not cut it.

Perhaps if the rumors of a Verizon iPhone sometime in the next 6 weeks are true, we will see this, somewhat. January = Verizon/CMDA iPhone refresh, July = AT&T/GSM.
post #9 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by sciwiz View Post

DED should have published the article right after the 2nd chart. The rest is "You Spin Me Round".

Another perspective on the same data is:

http://mobilized.allthingsd.com/2011...D_yahoo_ticker
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post #10 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by starbird73 View Post

Perhaps if the rumors of a Verizon iPhone sometime in the next 6 weeks are true, we will see this, somewhat. January = Verizon/CMDA iPhone refresh, July = AT&T/GSM.

If there is a Verizon phone in the near future it will be interesting to see if the feature set changes.
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post #11 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by AIaddict View Post

Once again, DED looks at a study and totally misinterprets the data.

.

I don't see where he misinterpreted anything. The article is clear in pointing out the differing data sets.
post #12 of 108
I predict a final score of Android 50, iOS 40, everone else 10.
However Apple will pull in 80-90% of the profit.
Android is a race to the bottom and Google's handset partners will play a cutthroat game to be king of the trailer park.
post #13 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

If there is a Verizon phone in the near future it will be interesting to see if the feature set changes.

new features:
1) white
post #14 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

If there is a Verizon phone in the near future it will be interesting to see if the feature set changes.

Yeah, depending on when...

Will the VZ be iP4, iP4.5 or iP5?

If it is later than the March timeframe, I suspect that Apple would do concurrent releases of iP5 for CDMA and GSM.

Where does that leave the iPad -- it certainly could make better use of multiple cores, OpenCL capable GPU, and additional RAM.

I don't know if a smartphone really needs a multiple core CPU -- I read that a single-core ARM A9 uses less power and provides better performance than the current A8.

I suspect we will have a better handle on what Apple needs to do, and when -- after CES.
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post #15 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by GmanMac View Post

I don't see where he misinterpreted anything. The article is clear in pointing out the differing data sets.

I think the first 10 post are from DED haters, that did not even bother reading the article, they just spill their vitriol. I don't get ti why these chaps hate DED so much.
post #16 of 108
Now that I think about it, I think it would be pretty cool if the Verizon iPhone only came in white.
It would make it really easy to see how fast they are being adopted.
post #17 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by GmanMac View Post

I don't see where he misinterpreted anything. The article is clear in pointing out the differing data sets.

DED states:

"Nielson's latest figures contradict the notion that Android as a platform has already outpaced Apple's iOS in the US and globally,"

Actually, Nielson's figures show the opposite. Android is obviously outpacing iOS, hence the market share gains. The gap between the iOS installed base and the Android base is shrinking because Android is selling faster. The lead in 6 month acquirers reinforces this fact and suggests it is likely to continue in the near future.

Apple has a lead in the install base because there were very few Android phones sold more than a year ago. Apple has been in the market for more than 3 years, so their share includes more than just the phones sold in 2010.
post #18 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by AIaddict View Post

Once again, DED looks at a study and totally misinterprets the data. Android has surpased the iPhone in new sales. It's third place in market share only reflects the relative newness of the platform's popularity and it will almost certainly be in the top spot in another 6-12 months as more contracts expire on older BB devices and as more people get their first smart phone.

Also, why repeat the false interpretation of the Gartner data? They did not clain there were tens of millions of no name android phones. That came from a complete idiot not knowing how to read and interpret the data they published. Publishing this foolish crap makes AI look bad and the author look worse.

Yes, that is exactly the problem with this article. The author is comparing entirely different types of information. Things like mobile web usage or phone market share are dependent on total number of phone (new OR old) actively in use in consumers' hands, where as product shipments depend on only new products sold. I think the author should do a bit better research about business and marketing before writing these kinds of article, which makes no empirical or logical sense.

On a different point, I do think that iOS platform would serve the non-technically sophisticated segments of the market very well, and will continue to do so for some time to come. There is really no danger of Apple losing market share anytime soon. Android will continue to gain market share, but from other mobile smartphone OSes such as BB, Symbian, WM, and an assortment of others.

That's especially the case with an older generation of users that did not grow up with computers and mobile devices in the home. My electronic gifts to the older generation relatives were all iOS devices, which are much easier to use and operate for people have little computer knowledge. For myself, and others in my generation, I see android being a much more appropriate device that has much more capabilities and options.
post #19 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by iStud View Post

I think the first 10 post are from DED haters, that did not even bother reading the article, they just spill their vitriol. I don't get ti why these chaps hate DED so much.

Because he is an idiot who publishes things that are factually incorrect. It is one thing to view the world with a pro-apple slant, but you can not state things that are false just to make your point. He does it over and over, and when the gross errors are pointed out neither he nor AI make corrections. He has destroyed the reputation of this site and those of us who used to be fans are tired of watching it go down the tubes.
post #20 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by AIaddict View Post

Because he is an idiot who publishes things that are factually incorrect. It is one thing to view the world with a pro-apple slant, but you can not state things that are false just to make your point. He does it over and over, and when the gross errors are pointed out neither he nor AI make corrections. He has destroyed the reputation of this site and those of us who used to be fans are tired of watching it go down the tubes.

Forget DED... when they let me on here I knew AI was on the way down...
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post #21 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by AIaddict View Post

Because he is an idiot who publishes things that are factually incorrect. It is one thing to view the world with a pro-apple slant, but you can not state things that are false just to make your point. He does it over and over, and when the gross errors are pointed out neither he nor AI make corrections. He has destroyed the reputation of this site and those of us who used to be fans are tired of watching it go down the tubes.

Amen...EXACTLY the point. I can normally tell just form the title of the post its from him.

Any idiot knows that the iPhone has any kind of lead because its been sold for longer, and that by all other indicators Android is going to surpass the iPhone in any numbers contest soon.
post #22 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by AIaddict View Post

DED states:

"Nielson's latest figures contradict the notion that Android as a platform has already outpaced Apple's iOS in the US and globally,"

I understood what you were saying I just don't agree. I suppose it depends on how you define outpaced. He pointed out the difference between market share growth and overall market share.
I don't see any misinterpretation there.
post #23 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by HardBall View Post

Yes, that is exactly the problem with this article. The author is comparing entirely different types of information. Things like mobile web usage or phone market share are dependent on total number of phone (new OR old) actively in use in consumers' hands, where as product shipments depend on only new products sold. I think the author should do a bit better research about business and marketing before writing these kinds of article, which makes no empirical or logical sense.

On a different point, I do think that iOS platform would serve the non-technically sophisticated segments of the market very well, and will continue to do so for some time to come. There is really no danger of Apple losing market share anytime soon. Android will continue to gain market share, but from other mobile smartphone OSes such as BB, Symbian, WM, and an assortment of others.

That's especially the case with an older generation of users that did not grow up with computers and mobile devices in the home. My electronic gifts to the older generation relatives were all iOS devices, which are much easier to use and operate for people have little computer knowledge. For myself, and others in my generation, I see android being a much more appropriate device that has much more capabilities and options.

I basically agree. He needed to better explain all the different metrics and their importance/reliability. DED is correct that many believe Android has overtaken iPhone in number of users, from reading the IDC/Gartner reports. Those measure unit sales for a specific time period. Nielsen / Comscore measure the Installed base. Nielsen shows that Android has been outselling iPhone but has yet to catch up.

AT&T has ~30% share and 27% of recent buys were iPhones, which has been remained steady. That's about what we could expect if AT&T only has 30% of mobile users then be hard to achieve a figure higher. iPhone sales are 80% or more of AT&T smartphones.

It's all about the older generation. that's a whole new market that only the iPhone can capture and it's quite big.
post #24 of 108
I think Android will decline as a percentage of the market in 2011. Most of the Android handset makers will have WP7 devices. They'll be competing for the same market share (i.e., people who want a smart phone and are unwilling to switch carriers to get an iPhone). If iPhone appears on Verizon that'll also take a big chunk out of Android sales.

I think Android has really just been filling the void created by Microsoft's fumbling and iPhone only being available on AT&T. While it can match iOS on a list of features, Android has a mediocre user experience and a market that cannot fairly be considered a match to the App Store. I don't think they'll be able to retain new customers the way the iPhone has (polls appear to support this).
post #25 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

Now that I think about it, I think it would be pretty cool if the Verizon iPhone only came in white.
It would make it really easy to see how fast they are being adopted.

Or if they had a barium coating (y'know, for tracking).

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post #26 of 108
Many of them would have bought an iPhone if it were available on other carriers. Can't blame them for that. I have spent quite a bit of time playing around with their phones, and every time it makes me appreciate my iPhone even more. For those who love Android, more power to you. But, in my opinion, it is the Windoze of the smartphone world; overly complex.
post #27 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Turley Muller View Post

I basically agree. He needed to better explain all the different metrics and their importance/reliability. DED is correct that many believe Android has overtaken iPhone in number of users, from reading the IDC/Gartner reports. Those measure unit sales for a specific time period. Nielsen / Comscore measure the Installed base. Nielsen shows that Android has been outselling iPhone but has yet to catch up.

AT&T has ~30% share and 27% of recent buys were iPhones, which has been remained steady. That's about what we could expect if AT&T only has 30% of mobile users then be hard to achieve a figure higher. iPhone sales are 80% or more of AT&T smartphones.

It's all about the older generation. that's a whole new market that only the iPhone can capture and it's quite big.

I think you have summed it up nicely.

I just have to add that ATT has seen lower churn rate and higher new subscriber figures, particularly in 2007-mid 2009, so iPhone has had in effect bringing many its potential customers under ATT for some time now. Although probably not all of the potential iPhone buyers are convinced by ATT/waiting for VZ, so there is still some potential market gain by moving to dual carrier.
post #28 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by bettieblue View Post

Any idiot knows that the iPhone has any kind of lead because its been sold for longer, and that by all other indicators Android is going to surpass the iPhone in any numbers contest soon.

Any numbers contest except number of satisfied customers, profits, number of apps (especially # of QUALITY apps)... you know, things that actually matter. Marketshare is great, but if you aren't making any money, it's kind of pointless (see: Dell)
post #29 of 108
The percentages will reverse once the Verizon iPhone comes out.
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post #30 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

This Dilger kid is more prolific than L. Ron Hubbard. LOL.

This comment makes no sense. L. Ron Hubbard wasn't any more prolific writer than most other writers of his day. More importantly, he sucked kind of badly and almost all of his works are virtually unknown except for the Dianetics junk.

Philip K. Dick on the other hand, (another technically insane "sci-fi" writer from the same period), was not very prolific at all, yet he has five books (at least), that any science fiction reader of any note has probably read or seen the movie version of.
post #31 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by poke View Post

I think Android will decline as a percentage of the market in 2011. Most of the Android handset makers will have WP7 devices. They'll be competing for the same market share (i.e., people who want a smart phone and are unwilling to switch carriers to get an iPhone). If iPhone appears on Verizon that'll also take a big chunk out of Android sales.

I think Android has really just been filling the void created by Microsoft's fumbling and iPhone only being available on AT&T. While it can match iOS on a list of features, Android has a mediocre user experience and a market cannot fairly be considered a match to the App Store. I don't think they'll be able to retain new customers the way the iPhone has (polls appear to support this).

I think I would disagree with that statement.

For me, I think Android has had a superior user experience, especially in the areas where using an iPhone would feel restrictive; and many people around my age or younger feel the same. Either that or some would try to jailbreak. Android interface is slightly more complicated than iOS, but I don't think anyone with some reasonable amount of computer experience wouldn't pick up in 5 min (basically the majority of the people born after 1970).

I know my mom and my grandpa would both disagree with me, since I have bought them iOS devices, and they both find those very easy to use with really nothing in the computer or electronics world that they need to learn. So to each whatever suits them, I don't think there is one single model that is going to prevail over the bulk of the market.
post #32 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

The percentages will reverse once the Verizon iPhone comes out.

And so the pissing contest continues...

Grow up!

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post #33 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Forget DED... when they let me on here I knew AI was on the way down...

Wow. An absolutely classic "Freudian Slip." Neat!
post #34 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Atanner View Post

Many of them would have bought an iPhone if it were available on other carriers. Can't blame them for that. I have spent quite a bit of time playing around with their phones, and every time it makes me appreciate my iPhone even more. For those who love Android, more power to you. But, in my opinion, it is the Windoze of the smartphone world; overly complex.

No no no... you must be wrong! It's not complex, it's free*! It can play Flash**! There's no overlord for apps***! It is the best thing ever****!

*Free does not mean for the end user. Rather, each carrier can change the look, feel, and even functionality of the phone without notice.

**Does not actually run smooth, and crashes more often than not. Battery estimated to last 15-20 minutes. Google (and its partners) are not responsible for third-degree burns due to overheating handsets.

***Google (and its partners) are not responsible for any malware and/or identity theft.

****Best only applies for 1-2 months until next best thing ever is released, dropping all hint of support for previous best thing ever.
post #35 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

Wow. An absolutely classic "Freudian Slip." Neat!

Actually... I meant "me".
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post #36 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by AIaddict View Post

Once again, DED looks at a study and totally misinterprets the data. Android has surpased the iPhone in new sales. It's third place in market share only reflects the relative newness of the platform's popularity and it will almost certainly be in the top spot in another 6-12 months as more contracts expire on older BB devices and as more people get their first smart phone.

Also, why repeat the false interpretation of the Gartner data? They did not clain there were tens of millions of no name android phones. That came from a complete idiot not knowing how to read and interpret the data they published. Publishing this foolish crap makes AI look bad and the author look worse.

I'm not saying I disagree with you or agree with you, but either way what you've said here is just classic wishful thinking. You may be right or wrong, but (unlike Daniel ironically), you simply have no data to back up these assumptions and are pretty much just blowing some kind of stinky gas here.

A lot of the comments on Daniel's articles seem to go like this. A lot of whining and bluster, a lot of denial, but no real counter-argument to back it up and no real analysis of what the author is actually putting forward as a thesis. The few times someone takes the trouble to factually knock down his arguments, it seems like only about 1% of the time do they actually come out on top and prove him wrong.

I've been reading his stuff since he started on pretty much a daily basis, and while he has been wrong before, he isn't wrong that often, which is probably why most of the comments on his stuff always end up sounding like the Sour Grapes arguments they really are.
post #37 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul94544 View Post

And so the pissing contest continues...

Grow up!

Um. You should take the "growing up" advice yourself. Apple has 28% installed base from a carrier which covers 25% of the Market. Expect it to be 40% if on all carriers.

You threw the toys out of the pram. Not me.
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post #38 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Yeah, depending on when...

Will the VZ be iP4, iP4.5 or iP5?

If it is later than the March timeframe, I suspect that Apple would do concurrent releases of iP5 for CDMA and GSM.

If it's that far out then an LTE chip better be in the mix. Both Verizon and AT&T will use LTE, so it wouldn't make sense to exclude it. Verizon's network would have already been up and running in a number of major areas and AT&T would just be starting up theirs.
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post #39 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

I've been reading his stuff since he started on pretty much a daily basis, and while he has been wrong before, he isn't wrong that often, which is probably why most of the comments on his stuff always end up sounding like the Sour Grapes arguments they really are.

I agree with you professor. The DED-haters seem to be pretty good at name-calling, but I'd be more impressed if they could provide specific details of where DED is wrong. My guess is that over the past few years, DED has been accurate about 95% of the time. I seem to recall he was wrong about the uni-body, aluminum Mac Book, but that's the only thing that comes to my mind. So perhaps he's been accurate more like 99% of the time, I'm not quite sure.
post #40 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

I'm not saying I disagree with you or agree with you, but either way what you've said here is just classic wishful thinking. You may be right or wrong, but (unlike Daniel ironically), you simply have no data to back up these assumptions and are pretty much just blowing some kind of stinky gas here.

A lot of the comments on Daniel's articles seem to go like this. A lot of whining and bluster, a lot of denial, but no real counter-argument to back it up and no real analysis of what the author is actually putting forward as a thesis. The few times someone takes the trouble to factually knock down his arguments, it seems like only about 1% of the time do they actually come out on top and prove him wrong.

I've been reading his stuff since he started on pretty much a daily basis, and while he has been wrong before, he isn't wrong that often, which is probably why most of the comments on his stuff always end up sounding like the Sour Grapes arguments they really are.

No, I don't think you are understanding people's arguments here correctly.

I think some objections raised about this article begins with this statement:
Quote:
Gartner's numbers differed from a parallel IDC mobile phone market report by an astounding 77 million units (the smartphone market itself is currently only 81 million), casting a credibility shadow over Gartner's figures and reporting.

Which is a grossly incorrect statement in its plain text, without any extraneous interpretation. He is comparing two sets of completely different statistical distributions, and drawing conclusions from them, which is simply a material fallacy in logic.

That does not take away from the potential good point, which is that the gartners numbers only refers to new devices, but does not take the devices already in consumer hands (and sometimes in carrier inventory) into account. So in the sense of total number of devices, iOS is still significantly ahead. That's the point that he should have made, not this other stuff that is simply a very uneducated statement.
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