CES: Microsoft keynote underwhelms with few surprises - Page 2

Finally a smart move by ms. They have admitted defeat in tablet space and are content with a small foothold in the phone business. Instead they will focus on areas they do well in, namely xbox and desktop os. Good business model for at least the next 10 years. By that time they may either get smaller in size or actually acquire talent for the next wave of technology.

That's a very misleading way of stating the situation. Microsoft's previous software targeting portable devices, such as Windows CE, have been totally capable of running on a SoC for years as well -- namely, for as long as Windows CE has existed. That decision is totally up to the hardware manufacturer, which in the vast majority of cases, isn't Microsoft.


You're right, this is absolutely not an "incremental" modification to Windows.

But, keep in mind that Microsoft designed the Windows NT kernel, from the ground up, to be portable to multiple processor architectures, with a "hardware abstraction layer" that isolates the Win32 API from the underlying CPU architecture. Windows NT was originally designed to target both 32-bit x86 as well as Intel's RISC-based i860. Development was initially done on the i860, and then ported back to the x86, specifically so that the engineers would be disciplined to avoid introducing any dependence on x86-specific features. When Intel's marketing of the i860 failed to stir up any significant amount of commercially released hardware, Microsoft abandoned the i860 port in favour of MIPS and Alpha ports; MIPS was complete in time for Windows NT's first commercial release, and Aplha followed shortly after due to DEC's delays in producing working Alpha silicon.

So far, commercial versions of the Windows NT kernel have been released, at various points in the product's history, for x86-32, MIPS, PowerPC, Alpha, Itanium, and x86-64. Now, they're adding ARM to the mix.

One of the biggest surprises at CES is Windows on ARM. Also, NVIDIA is developing ARM chips now. Big stuff. If that's underwhelming, all of CES is underwhelming.

No mention of the next-gen Surface? I thought it was pretty sweet looking. It's only inches thick now and is sensitive enough to read text on a piece of paper you place down on top of it. (Per pixel sensitivity.) It's going to be much more affordable (no specifics) too. Looked very impressive and a step towards consumer price ranges. Can't wait to see more about it.

This is a big year for Apple to prove that it is ahead of the game. Many, many on-the-fence tablet people are drooling over the new stuff. Can't wait to see what Apple offers, and I am interested how far along Apple might be on transitioning higher level Mac OS X stuff to ARM, or if it cares to.

How is developing Windows for ARM "admitting defeat in the tablet space"? I'm not following you. That could be the only thing that saves Microsoft in the tablet and laptop/sub-laptop space, if they can pull it off in 2 years.

On one hand it's madness on the other its also madness to try and compete with the iPad right now. Version 2 is about to come out and if version 2 of the iPhone is anything to go by it's going to sell a lot. Irrespective of what they come out with the iPad would beat it because it's Apple. Bit like the Zune trying to compete with an iPod. Waiting a few years like they did with WP7 might give them longer term success rather than releasing something that immediately fails.


I disagree as a software company they should be showing off what they've managed to do, after all they don't sell the final product. A repeat of last year where they showed actual products that then didn't get produced is far worse. This year though is more like a perfect announcement:

1. Reports some success. 8 million Kinnects in 2 months or in other words over a billion in extra revenue over the next year.

2. Announce some new products. New Surface (probably not going to sell a lot but very cool), Avatar Kinnect (showing off that Kinnect can recognize facial expressions), and a bit of the next update to WP7.

3. Show off some future development. Windows 7 running on ARM, haven't people been shouting as MS to do this.

None of it's as exciting as announcing a brand new product, but then Apple only announce 1 brand new product each year and the rest are upgrades. Kinnects only 2 months old so why should they announce anything new.

Well, I must admit, I now am not sure. And to be sure, I would have to ask Solipsism what decade he was referring to when he stated, "All said, i think this is the best CES MS has had this decade."


All and as solipsism said, I agree that that this was the best CES MS has had this decade. In every sense, Ballmer said nothing and as such, based on last years debacle in particular, he did quite well.

We watched Ballmer's keynote* as well as followed CNET's live blog and the commentary certainly was disparaging. And if you take the definition of 'keynote' literally, you have to ask CES's organizers how they can contend that Balmer's commercials could be construed, as they announced, the 2011 CES Keynote Address.

* http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/e...iveKeynoteDay1
Particularly to the reference to Avatar Kinect and the porn industry.

'Decade' is an imprecise term in regard to exactly what years are referred to. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decade if you like to use Wikipedia as your font of truth.

A decade can be any 10 year period. eadulf is correct that 2011 is the first year of the second decade of the 21st century. 2011 is also the second year of the 2010s and, for the decade arbitrarily beginning on January 1, 2005, 2011 is the seventh year. However, in the context of solipsism's post, I'm pretty sure that Onhka got it and Tallest Skil is in the uncomfortable position of being pedantic, wrong, and not in on the joke, which was pretty funny.

it also outsold ferraris and zanussi tumble dryers in the same time period.

I was amazed by that !

A step? MS just announced that they'll introduce copy and paste to Windows Phone 7; a feature that made its way into iOs 19 months ago.

So I think, yeah, it's safe to say they're at least than a step ahead.

"Whatever device you use... Windows will be there," said Ballmer during Wednesday's keynote ...

... at which point, the audience ran screaming from the building.

Microsoft is a slowly dying dinosaur waiting for a comet to put it out of its misery. It's almost painful to watch. But don't mourn for it too long, because it's like the Oracle said: "Everything that has a beginning has an end". The strong rise and the weak fall. Anno 2011 copying others doesn't cut it anymore. Another species, a warm-blooded kind, has developed and will soon become dominant. It's called Apple. It's nesting in a region called Cupertino and its vibrant children iPod, iPhone, iPad and iMac are highly skilled and spreading fast. And that's a good thing because the statement "Whatever device you use... Windows will be there.." will probably give the chills to many of us because it's contradicting what nature stands for. (Hope y'all appreciate the metaphor Cheers from across the big pond.

Kinect is incredibly popular. 8 million units of an expensive add-on device for a 5 year old console is nothing short of phenomenal... but to do it in 2 months is almost unbelievable.

As a comparison Sony took 5 years to ship 10.5 million (relatively cheap) EyeToys... and that was to a PS2 install base almost three times greater than Microsoft has with Xbox 360.

That means Microsoft have already achieved an attach rate for Kinect (1/6.3) twice as high as Sony managed for the EyeToy (1/13.3)... in two months.

Even compared to games the Kinect is popular. In two months it has outsold and achieved higher attach rates than the most popular PS3 exclusives. e.g. Resistance 3.72m (1/12.3), LittleBigPlanet 4.09m (1/11.2), Uncharted2 4.29m (1/10.6), GT5 4.63m (9.84), MGS4 5.07m (1/9.0).

In any case Kinect will go down in history as one of the most popular add-on accessories for a console. From what I can tell the Wii Balance Board is the most popular. They have sold at least 23m units to an install base of 85m. That's an attach rate of 1/3.7. I'm not sure of exact numbers though. It's probably higher.



I totally agree. However even if Microsoft never sold another Kinect it still would be seen as a success. And how long do you think it needs to last? This console generation will be over some time next year.


No doubt PS3 gamers around the world will have another awesome year... but the only way that 2011 will go down in history as the "year of the Playstation" is if Apple decide to buy out Sony with their spare change, announce the Apple Playstation 4 and rehire Kutargi to be Jobs' personal bitch slave.

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Edited by MacRulez - 5/4/12 at 1:17pm

intel doesn't need to worry much. Oaktrail is in the wings with still better performance than any ARM core and with lower power requiriments.


Netbook and iPads. Apple and oranges. One works without needing to be enslaved to the other.


MSFT is an ARM licensee, too. What will happen then?

You see the difference though?

Nokia and Intel are still working on MeeGo which they have stated will be designed for both tablets and phones (I'll leave out my opinions on MeeGo at the moment! ). It's not working, but we know their intention.

RiM have demonstrated the Blackberry Playbook. Not my cup of tea but it's certainly a proper tablet offering. Again, we know their intentions.

After seeing the Xoom preview I think Google can say they have created an OS "designed for tablets". We certainly know their intentions.

Which brings us to Microsoft. Not only have they not released something for the tablet space, they haven't even demonstrated anything. It seems like they have no intention of offering something specifically designed for tablets. All we know is some time in the next 1 to 2 years they will release a full blown Windows version that will run on ARM SOCs.


By that time Intel will have Cedar Trail on 22nm fabrication and getting close to 16nm and if Sandy Bridge is anything to go by the GPU side of their SOC will be respectable.

Not to say that I think getting Windows running on ARM is a bad idea, just that they shouldn't have put their entire tablet strategy (if they have one) on hold whilst they were waiting. They could have released a consumer focused WP7/ARM based tablet to fill in the 1-2 year interim. Applications based on XNA/Silverlight would have been totally portable across WP7/Tablet/Xbox/PC if they decided to change the underlying architecture at a later date.


EDIT: Apparently Microsoft are working on a touch based shell replacement for Windows 8 tablets. It's going to be a difficult job to introduce this if it ends up hitting later on in 2012.

While this would be useful for SOHO servers, I sincerely doubt that anyone will be running Oracle RAC on an ARM chip anytime soon, or even Active Directory for that matter. \

OTOH, the chip itself could be certainly useful on consumer-level devices. The only question is, how flexible will the resulting OS sitting atop it be?


Nobody wants to ignore a fast-growing consumer product. OTOH, I doubt that they're being leading-edge on this (I can run a full-blown Linux distro on an ARM chip right now, and have been able to for years.) IMHO, more like they're scrambling to put something, anything, onto an ARM chip... just to stay relevant with the end-user.

Kinect sales are indeed impressive, but there are a few things to keep in mind:

1) It's selling into an installed base of XBox owners who number in the millions already
2) Individually, it's significantly cheaper than even the least expensive iPad
3) Ballmer later admitted the 8 million figure was to sales channels worldwide, not to end consumers

Comparing a game controller to a tablet that just created its own market seems stupid. The only reason is so MS can say, "Look! We have something that outsold the iPad!"

And they still have released sales numbers for Windows Phone 7.

I'm with you on this one... when I count to 10 I don't usually start with 0 and end with 9.

Not if it's some incredibly overhyped gimmick technology no one has ever used before that was released nearly on holidays season


Comparing EyeToys to Kinects is comparing AppleTVs to iPhone 4s...


Even if I forgave you for such comparison (I don't), Microsoft has lower profits with hardware than software licenses. And Kinect software mostly sucks. See the connection?


That still doesn't make it a better platform. As was the case with the Wii.


Hah! Microsoft itself said the 360 is expected to last at least until 2014.


Don't know squat about games, do you?

Remember the time when it was everyone else who had to adapt and evolve according to what Microsoft did?

Wait...nevermind. Microsoft stole or copied from everyone else in the first place!

MS is acting like Atom chips are the only thing keep Windows off tablets and other low powered devices. ARM does nothing to simplify the user experience for a tablet device. Sure, you'll get better batter life.... maybe... a lot of other changes will be necessary to do that, but what about the user experience?

ARM will create a big problem that users are not going to cope with easily. x86 programs won't run and an Apple style Rosetta will strain ARM. I don't see that being possible or compatible with battery life goals.

So I need all new apps? Well I need those for Android and iPad anyway, and those apps are designed for touch. Not just recompiled windows apps.

Windows everywhere? Do users really want that?




Now, an ARM server or laptops might be very interesting as more powerful ARM chips ship.

Windows Everywhere..... Except on iPad!

There is basically nothing in that for me to seriously respond to. You've gone from the position of "you think 8 million Kinects is a lot? You guys clearly don't know squat about video games" to basically saying (I'll paraphrase) "Xbox sucks, Kinect sucks and everything sucks but PS3 because PS3 is awesome because I said so. Nobody knows as much as I do"

Seriously?

You said 8 million Kinect units isn't a lot, so I provided you with statistics that show that 8 million units is a lot in the context of and expensive console add-on.

I also provided you with statistics that show that the Kinect is more popular among the Xbox community (i.e. devices sold per X360 console) than any exclusive PS3 game is among the PlayStation community.

If you want to say "Kinect sucks and its a gimmick and its not going to last and by the way it is sucky because I said so" then that is your opinion.

However as soon as you start trying to accuse people of not knowing what they are talking about for saying the Kinect has sold well then you're going to end up with someone calling you out for the BS.

In any case I think you'll struggle to find too many people that really care either way about the PlayStation on these forums... that is of course, until Apple swallow up Sony and release the Apple PlayStation TV 4. Now that would be news!

Agreed!

Apparently they are working on two separate shells for Windows 8 - the normal desktop and the "panel based" touch UI (sounds like WP7?) and full cloud integration (so your documents/settings are synced between all of your devices - phone/tablet/laptop/desktop).

Also, it was leaked ages ago that they will include the Marketplace for applications in Windows 8 and they are also working on Silverlight for Xbox - my guess would be their aim is a unified Marketplace across phone/tablet/Xbox/laptop and desktop.

It's a grand plan but it feels like it should be happening now (or at least soon), not 1 or 2 years down the road.

So the first year of the century (2000) was the last year of the decade?

I'm not a gamer, but just looking at the sales numbers and news reports on Kinect, I think Microsoft is on to a good thing here. Average (non-gamer) people have really taken to the Wii, and the Kinect is the next evolution of that sort of family oriented gaming. I think it's going to be very popular with the same demographics that have, or are/were interested in, the Wii, which is a much larger group than traditional console gamers. This is one of the reasons I think Microsoft would do best putting there AppleTV/GoogleTV competitor under the Xbox brand (as a standalone or complimentary device/service), a brand that looks better these days than anything Windows.

No, the last year (2000) of the previous century (20th) was the last year of its calendar decade (1991-2000).

It's dumb, but the start of this century was technically 2001, not 2000. They started counting the years at 1 instead of 0.

From memory it was much more fun celebrating the new century in 2000 though

I know people hate microsoft here but i figured apple fans would be exited about the new touch technology microsoft and samsung came up with.

IF you watched the keynot speech the new surface 2 can actually see whats put ontop of it. they had a debug screen that showed you what the surface sees.

IF apple licensed this they could make ipads and iphones even better in the touch department.

PS keep in mind this is a consumer expo . New products usually are saved for their own events. Like at the technet events e3 and other places.

Microsoft has something special with Kinect. The Avatar Kinect seems goofy but just the way MS is using the tech to do facial recognition for the masses is amazing. I havent really cared about Kinect, but im intrigued enough to buy one to try it out. The deeper MS integrates Kinect features into its core experience, the better it will be. If they can do something for the "gamer market", it could really change the face of gaming as a whole as Nintendo did with the DS and Wii.

Windows on ARM is a big deal. I suspect that Windows Phone 7 features may be integrated into Windows 8, allowing a full Windows experience across all devices, from traditional computing to mobile computing.

Imagine your phone sitting in a dock with HDMI out and USB/Bluetooth keyboard/mouse support, running like a full computer. Unplug it and take it on the go, using it as a phone and tablet like device.

This is something i wish Microsoft had done years ago, but they rested too long while iOS and Android came in. Now MS sees both platforms as a threat that could encroach upon traditional PC territory. No better way for MS to combat both by putting their software on iOS and Android home turf, ARM hardware

Hmmmm... I'm just guessing but something tells me that Apple has its own techs working on something that is even better than the MS-Samsung development.

... but that's just a guess.

Geez people. What a bunch of wonky ass posts. MS sells a fraken accessory to an aging game console, they make $1.2 BILLION in revenue doing it, and you cant give them any accolades for it? MS has been notorious for not being able to turn a profit on any HW. It took them years just to get in the black per quarter with the 360. Im not even sure theyve turned a profit overall.

I didnt make the iPad comparison, MS did, and if you cant see why theyd make a comparison to the hottest CE on the market to get free press then Im surprised you can read this post. Pretty simple marketing.



Actually, you were correct in your first sentence. Its an imprecise term whose only binding aspect is a period of 10 years. I was referring to the previous 10 year time frame, hence my use of decade.

I liked it better when I thought you were making a joke...

But its true. For MS I cant think of a bigger announcement. Windows being made to run on a differnet architecture for the first time whilst Apple is on 3 for desktop and 4 if you count the iOS port. And an actual success with selling HW. Thats big news.

"Apple is a pain in the ass"
http://www.cultofmac.com/how-apple-a...ntroller/67951

But what about the developers?

Well, it's certainly more than they had last year.

Differnet, that's the Verizon term for their version of the Internet they plan to offer on wireless, right?

Why is DED always attacked? Because he was followed to AI by an asinine mob of idiots who also did the same when his articles appeared on Digg...

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Not everyone started counting years at CE 1. The calendar has been screwed with many times in the last 2,000 or so years. Solipsism's remark about decade was obviously referring to the last 10 years and the 6 day joke was funny.

Computer epoch date started on 1970-01-01 00:00:00 which as you can see, starts on a zero.