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Google Android passes Apple's iPhone in total US subscribers - comScore - Page 2

post #41 of 164
fecklesstechguy just cracked a serious wipe. Excellent rebuttal.
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post #42 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by ollebolle View Post

these are very important figures, not only for profitability but also for adoption of the platform.
Ideally these would also include other devices that run on the OS'es (and specified with the capabilities of the devices that the OS can tap into)

Lets remind the early days of MAC OS vs Windows, the Mac almost dissapeared in '97. Why could it again lead to this??? Well, just like in the 80's, Android is freely available for other manufacturers to implement it in their devices, while iOS is not. widespread of the Android system in current applications and new ones (like seen in cars on CES) could lead to an Android platform that is many times more wide spread than the iOS platform. That's why developers would be more likely to pass up on the iOS platform than the Android platform.

now this is pessimistically off course, and i assume Apple has learned its lesson; but still this lingers in my mind...

This isn't the 80's, Apple is a much different company than they were then, Google is NOT equivalent to Microsoft of the 80's. Apple nearly failed due to executive incompetence. Not because they weren't open or whatever. Microsoft drove licensing with every PC hardware maker that made Windows the de facto OS standard - they didn't give it away. And Google is NOT in the market to build OSes - Android is their means of driving ad revenue in the mobile space, because their profitability is flattening in the desktop ad space. It is only a matter of time before another upstart (or former Google developer) comes up with the next, better search tool that will impact Google's control of search+ad. They know this and hence the focussed drive into mobile ad space.

Putting Android in cars and refrigerators and air conditioning units will certainly drive up the installed base, but what developer is going to write games for your fridge? Developers have a slippery slope with Android, because Google isn't interested in paid-for apps - they want free apps that depend on ad revenue, and that abstracts the profitability of the app, and makes it dependent on Google continuing to be generous and continuing to support Android. If Chrom matures and becomes ready for primetime, look for support for Android to slowly diminish as Google will have even greater control over Chrome and will make it the de facto standard.

The comparison between Apple/Microsoft 80's and Apple/Google now is superficial and highly inaccurate in so many ways it is embarrassing to watch so-called pundits strain to draw the comparison.
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post #43 of 164
Google maybe the free OS but the actual money and risk is being put in by the manufacturers who are all going to be cutting each other's throats. Apple meanwhile sale on.
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post #44 of 164
I don't understand this hatred, we don't have our paycheck if the platform we choose is not the number one?
post #45 of 164
In related news, all Korean cars combined outsold the Honda Accord.


Why is it any surprise that 100 different phones would outsell the #1 phone?

Oh, and btw, Apple is not interested in share, per se. They'd rather have a 25% share and make money than a 90% share and break even. Look at the PC market where Apple's 5-10% share accounts for 30-40% of the entire industry's profits.
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post #46 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Strong sales of phones running Google Android throughout 2010 have managed to push the mobile platform past Apple's iPhone in total active subscribers for the first time, according to comScore.



I think that our friends are cooking the books here!
post #47 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by bstring View Post

Both platforms will grow as the market grows and also with the demise of Blackberry and Symbian. However, in a year or two, I see Apple settling in with its minority market share earning high margins, as it does so well, making high quality products. Nothing wrong with this. I've owned macs for many years.

Too much is made of marketshare alone and even Apple has been guilty lately of blowing up the importance of this number. What I like about Apple is its outsized profitability relative to its marketshare in most its product categories.
post #48 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

fecklesstechguy just cracked a serious wipe. Excellent rebuttal.

Game on. Target - bloody twits who use specious arguments to make dubious and inaccurate points of no effective value.
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post #49 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by bstring View Post

This question would be valid except that when Android became available on ATT, the target smartphone demographic had already left ATT or bought an iphone, most becoming happy owners. Many iphone owners will move to Verizon and many upgraders on Verizon will choose an iPhone. My point, however, is that we will not see a reversal in the trend over the next six months.

My prediction is that Android will maintain faster quarterly growth... not for reasons of user interface, but due to lower cost (Sprint, Tmobile) and choices in form factor and unique features.

Both platforms will grow as the market grows and also with the demise of Blackberry and Symbian. However, in a year or two, I see Apple settling in with its minority market share earning high margins, as it does so well, making high quality products. Nothing wrong with this. I've owned macs for many years.

There are a couple of key factors you are neglecting. Remember, Verizon has indicated that Android is loosing its luster; furthermore Verizon has given further concessions to Apple to maintain exclusivity with AT&T; Why, because Verizon is confident that they can attract the switchovers from T-Mobile and Sprint that AT&T could not. As we all know, Android is furthering its deep fragmentation with multiple Android versions on multiple mobile devices. Google is not about experience, they wants fingers clicking on Ads. More problems for Google relate to Chrome and Android.......stupidly, they are two different development environments which will add even deeper fragmentation to their mobile and desktop spaces. Apple enjoys the fruits of simply extending their desktop API to IOS as mobile processors become more powerful. Beautiful thing! RIM will see deep losses as will NOKIA. Palm is dead, yet, they still believe that HPs ability to scale their WEB OS will somehow resurrect it. microsoft....eh.....balmer. I predict Google and Apple as the big players in 2011 with Google feeling the same pain in the mobile market that they now enjoy with Google TV.
post #50 of 164
If Android takes a significant lead over iOS, guess where the developers are going to go? Not saying that they would all leave iOS, but Android might start getting Apps first, and iOS second. The exact opposite of what is happening now. Because developers will go where they can get the most exposure, and thus the greatest potential for profit/exposure/fame...
post #51 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by m0rdread View Post

This is a direct result of Apples love affair with AT&T. I understand AT&T took a risk when no one else did, but by the time the iPhone 3Gs came around, Apple should have offered it to any and all carriers that wanted it.

I don't think Apple has a love affair with ATT, but they do/did have a binding contract.
post #52 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by m0rdread View Post

If Android takes a significant lead over iOS, guess where the developers are going to go? Not saying that they would all leave iOS, but Android might start getting Apps first, and iOS second. The exact opposite of what is happening now. Because developers will go where they can get the most exposure, and thus the greatest potential for profit/exposure/fame...

Based on that rationale the Ovi store and all those mobile Java app stores that have been around for years should be the primary focus for developers but they arent because there is no 1:1 ratio of OS marketshare to profit.

That said, its possible to run numbers to get average of net profit (after removing all expenses as developing for different platforms dont cost the same) from a said app types to see how much more of an installed base (on consumer devices) a mobile OS would have to have to be the greater focus over the current market leader. I dont think Android is anywhere near that level.
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post #53 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by m0rdread View Post

If Android takes a significant lead over iOS, guess where the developers are going to go? Not saying that they would all leave iOS, but Android might start getting Apps first, and iOS second. The exact opposite of what is happening now. Because developers will go where they can get the most exposure, and thus the greatest potential for profit/exposure/fame...

This will really depend on how profitable ad-supported apps are. With the App store, the developer gets to set his price and take his cut while most Android apps rely on those ads.

Does anyone know what the typical payout is for an impression from Google ads?
post #54 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by m0rdread View Post

If Android takes a significant lead over iOS, guess where the developers are going to go? Not saying that they would all leave iOS, but Android might start getting Apps first, and iOS second. The exact opposite of what is happening now. Because developers will go where they can get the most exposure, and thus the greatest potential for profit/exposure/fame...

exactly my point, but luckily none of the people on this forum have to agree, but it is Apple that has to watch out. They have to make sure their platform stays top notch and remains widespread.
post #55 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by bstring View Post

All it means is that the ios platform is not the most popular amongst smartphone owners. Apple's client base has always been a niche market until the iphone came along and then they made billions. Now they can go back to making a high end niche product and earn record profits from loyalists. I think it's a winning formula.

On Galaxy S, Samsung also has a winning formula and it's a win-win in a growing market.

Quote:
Originally Posted by m0rdread View Post

If Android takes a significant lead over iOS, guess where the developers are going to go? Not saying that they would all leave iOS, but Android might start getting Apps first, and iOS second. The exact opposite of what is happening now. Because developers will go where they can get the most exposure, and thus the greatest potential for profit/exposure/fame...

What about when you throw in tablet users (iPad) and other device (iPod Touch) all using iOS, all able to be targeted by the same developers on the iOS platform.

Then there's the fact that America isn't the iPhone's only market, that the majority of iPhones are sold outside the US..

The numbers the fanboys conveniently forget.
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post #56 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

What about when you throw in tablet users (iPad) and other device (iPod Touch) all using iOS, all able to be targeted by the same developers on the iOS platform.

Then there's the fact that America isn't the iPhones only market.

The numbers the fanboys conveniently forget.

I wonder who the real fanboy is here...
i am a big apple fan, but with a healthy business sense and business education, which allows me to view it from another angle as well.
post #57 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by AIaddict View Post

Oh no! What will DED do to spin this awful news?

More rationalization on how phones running Android vs iPhones is not a valid comparison? We need to include non phone devices like iPads and iPods, or we should count all iPhones as iPhones, but treat the different Android devices separately?

Boring...

...ignoring!
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post #58 of 164
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post #59 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by ollebolle View Post

I wonder who the real fanboy is here...
i am a big apple fan, but with a healthy business sense and business education, which allows me to view it from another angle as well.

One who recognises that "smartphones" aren't the only market available to iOS developers.
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post #60 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by ollebolle View Post

seriously? now its google + samsung + LG + philips + sony ericsson + every other android device maker vs Apple when it comes to platforms

the levels are not equal

Maybe the levels aren't equal. But Apple has a disproportionate share of the profits in the feature smartphone market. As long as that remains the case...Apple are on to a winner.

Android is fast becoming a race to the bottom on price, just as with the Windows-based PC market. Hardly any profit to be had in PCs, and Apple has the vast majority of that too.
post #61 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by ollebolle View Post

They have to make sure their platform stays top notch and remains widespread.

Neither of which means they have to have the largest installed based. Logic dictates if that were the only criteria for being profitable and desirable they would have licensed or given their OS.

Also, note that iOS and Android both made very popular app stores while not even being close to the most popular mobile OSes on the market. That should tell us something about marketshare not being as important as other aspects of business.
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post #62 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rider View Post

when would AI get it .. Android is not a phone ! ... Iphone is a phone . let me know when M Droid outsells Iphone 4

By your bizarre logic then how does the Mac stack up against Windows? Or would that be Max vs Dell, Mac vs HP, etc etc.

All developers care about is the OS. What the shape of the plastic casing which surrounds it looks like is beyond irrelevant.
post #63 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by tawilson View Post

Maybe the levels aren't equal. But Apple has a disproportionate share of the profits in the feature smartphone market. As long as that remains the case...Apple are on to a winner.

Android is fast becoming a race to the bottom on price, just as with the Windows-based PC market. Hardly any profit to be had in PCs, and Apple has the vast majority of that too.

I'm an end user, not an investor, or a developer. Why should I care about Apple's profitability? As an end user I think I would prefer lower profitability for Apple and lower prices for myself. It's almost like saying that it is a good thing that I have to pay more.

As far as I'm concerned, the competition between Android and Apple is already providing benefits to end users. I hope that it only gets more intense.
post #64 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Why is it any surprise that 100 different phones would outsell the #1 phone?

Well, one hundred different MP3 players did not outsell the iPods. Difference here is:
(a) for most of the time there where three different iPod models, though admittedly the iPod mini and later the nano vastly outsold the iPod classic
(b) iPod did not need carriers, partial carrier exclusivity and the desire of the carriers to maintain their power leading them to make sure they would push multiple brands (aided by Androids malleability)
(c) the iTunes ecosystem is less of an advantage with smart phones than with MP3 players

And last but least,
(d) A determined and capable opponent in the form of Google
post #65 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rigelian View Post

I'm an end user, not an investor, or a developer. Why should I care about Apple's profitability? As an end user I think I would prefer lower profitability for Apple and lower prices for myself. It's almost like saying that it is a good thing that I have to pay more.

As far as I'm concerned, the competition between Android and Apple is already providing benefits to end users. I hope that it only gets more intense.

Since one having slightly more or less OS marketshare isnt an indicator of which one will be a better experience for an end user shouldnt this entire article and discussion be a moot point?
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post #66 of 164
As was touched on here - the real news will be whether or not Android app developers make money.

Right now, IOS developers make a LOT more money per app than the same app makes on Android. Partly due to the fragmented market - both in terms of the platform variety, and the fragmented marketplaces.

This means the overall development and distribution costs (and time) are higher for Android apps. It's a mess. There is no single, consistently-implemented ecosystem for Android devices. This places them much in the same place that Windows Mobile was a couple of years ago - in the middle of a potentially stagnating market. That's not a good place to be. Google needs to exert a little force and get more devices on the same OS flavor, and they need to get a consistent marketplace going - like making sure that the Google Marketplace is available on ALL Android devices (which today it is NOT). A stagnating app marketplace will not be a good place for Android to end up (they aren't quite there yet, of course) because it will make people bored with the platform - the shiny toy will no longer be shiny.

Apple, on the other hand, has an extremely robust marketplace (despite complaints about over zealous and inconsistent access/control). They have to keep things fresh somehow, though, or people will become bored (some already have) and move away from the platform. Apple has done a good job so far of keeping the devices progressively improved while minimizing the number of devices that get marginalized (dropped off) of the support bandwagon. But they have to keep it up and people will keep coming. If not - people will eventually drop away.

As has already been mentioned - in the end, it will never be about the raw number of devices on a given platform - you can gain raw user numbers by making devices cheap. That's meaningless in the long run. WM had many cheap devices, but no one bought apps - that had a lot to do with killing interest in the platform. Instead it is all about the profit from the platform - both for the manufacturers and for the app developers - and that will ultimately determine where the developers and hence the users go (or stay) in the long run.
post #67 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rigelian View Post

I'm an end user, not an investor, or a developer. Why should I care about Apple's profitability? As an end user I think I would prefer lower profitability for Apple and lower prices for myself. It's almost like saying that it is a good thing that I have to pay more. .

I disagree. You need to care about profitability. Without it manufacturers and developers won't grow and progress devices and platforms. If Apple is highly profitable they will keep putting money into their products. So you SHOULD care about profitability.
post #68 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Neither of which means they have to have the largest installed based.

The two leading platforms in the iPhone-type smarphone sector (ie, large touchscreens) have about 200 000 to 300 000 apps, the next competitors have all about 5000 (Palm, BB, MS). Sure, it is still early days and things are still in motion but developers have pretty much picked some very clear winners. There is a world of difference between the number two and the number three.

No, you do not have to be the market share leader but being number four or five compared to number one or two can mean a world of difference.
post #69 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

One who recognises that "smartphones" aren't the only market available to iOS developers.

are you even following, read my first post
post #70 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by noirdesir View Post

The two leading platforms in the iPhone-type smarphone sector (ie, large touchscreens) have about 200 000 to 300 000 apps, the next competitors have all about 5000 (Palm, BB, MS). Sure, it is still early days and things are still in motion but developers have pretty much picked some very clear winners. There is a world of difference between the number two and the number three.

No, you do not have to be the market share leader but being number four or five compared to number one or two can mean a world of difference.

Youve moved the goal posts to make the two smartphone OSes with the most mobile apps number one and two to support your point, but as its been pointed out smartphones with apps existed a long time before the iPhone and they didnt have great success with app stores the way Apple pioneered it with their limited number of unit sales compared to RiM and Nokia if only counting the phones that can install apps.

While having more marketshare can be beneficial, its no guarantee of anything as weve seen with way Apple has changed the smartphone and handset market over the last 3.5 years.
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post #71 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rigelian View Post

As far as I'm concerned, the competition between Android and Apple is already providing benefits to end users. I hope that it only gets more intense.

Yes and no. Apple is being forced to up their game and are doing a bloody good job, so far.

However on the Android side of things, they aren't looking so great. The platform has got more fragmented. Phones from manufacturers are being locked out of new OS updates 6 months after they are released. More and more app stores are cropping up for the same platform, some with very potentially awful consequences/clauses (for developers - who incidentally help drive the usefulness/desire of a device), such as Amazon's awful "fire sale" policy.

Android is looking more and more shite by the minute. Android 3.0 has thrown UI consistency and clarity out of the window and that's just on Google's apps. It's turning it a shocking mess. And there is still no decent way for developers to monetize their applications, especially globally.
post #72 of 164
Competition is good.

We should all be happy that Android is at least a decent competitor to Apple.

However, I'm waiting to see the numbers on AT&T for how many people get an Android Phone when an iPhone is available -- the OTHER very important number will be the percent of people who get an new Android Phone when they replace their current phone.

The Android phones are good on SPECS -- but the upgrade, support and fragmentation are NOT. So it isn't the same as having an early model iPhone that you just upgrade and most of the apps just work.

Apple is keeping even with only ONE phone service -- so when they get on T-Mobile and/or Verizon, then I think they will pick up more market share. The only problem will be; having the same data throughput on those networks as AT&T. 50% of ALL internet cell-phone traffic comes from just the 4% market of the iPhone. So, they might not be able to have videoconferencing and 4G speeds at first.

Hopefully, Apple will be a benign dictator, and force these other cell services to NOT make the iPhone different for each carrier. -- time will tell.
post #73 of 164
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post #74 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by noirdesir View Post

(d) A determined and capable opponent in the form of Google

How do we know Google are capable opponent in this area. They have yet to report any real details on Android, its running costs profit/loss or anything.

Sooner or later Google's investors are going to want to see hard evidence that Android is doing anything for them, although I think whilst their profits are on the rise I doubt the questions will be asked.
post #75 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by m0rdread View Post

If Android takes a significant lead over iOS, guess where the developers are going to go? Not saying that they would all leave iOS, but Android might start getting Apps first, and iOS second. The exact opposite of what is happening now. Because developers will go where they can get the most exposure, and thus the greatest potential for profit/exposure/fame...

And, yet, even after Android's smartphone market share surpassed iOS's share, iOS apps outnumbered Android apps many fold. There are several reasons, including:
- Android users buy apps at a MUCH lower rate (at one point iOS accounted for well over 90% of the smartphone app sales)
- Android is much more fragmented wrt OS version (phones are still being sold with versions as far back as 1.5).
- Android is much more fragmented wrt features (any vendor can choose which features to add or leave out - which increases developer effort exponentially. See what the Angry Birds developer has to say about it.
- Much easier to pirate apps in Android - making it even less profitable for a developer
- iOS development not only gets iPhones, but also many millions of iPads which are typically not included in the smartphone numbers. There's no sign that Android tablets are going to have all that much success, based on early releases.

If Android was going to overtake iOS in developer activity, it would have happened by now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tawilson View Post

How do we know Google are capable opponent in this area. They have yet to report any real details on Android, its running costs profit/loss or anything.

Sooner or later Google's investors are going to want to see hard evidence that Android is doing anything for them, although I think whilst their profits are on the rise I doubt the questions will be asked.

Google makes their money from ads. There is little, if any, doubt that their Android efforts are brining in plenty of adds to justify the expense.
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post #76 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by tawilson View Post

How do we know Google are capable opponent in this area. They have yet to report any real details on Android, its running costs profit/loss or anything.

I meant capable on a technical level, nobody disputes that Google has produced a capable OS faster and more complete then MS or RIM. If RIM, MS, and Palm had been the only competitors for the iPhone, it's marketshare would have been noticeably higher.
post #77 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by m0rdread View Post

If Android takes a significant lead over iOS, guess where the developers are going to go? Not saying that they would all leave iOS, but Android might start getting Apps first, and iOS second. The exact opposite of what is happening now. Because developers will go where they can get the most exposure, and thus the greatest potential for profit/exposure/fame...

There are two aspects to this: the installed base AND the demonstrated profitability of that base for the developers. As a developer you have you weight the cost of doing business with a given platform, the reliability of the platform and the income to cost ratio.

If developers, for example, see more income realized against their costs from charging for an app than for imbedding ads - they will go that route. If the reverse then the other route makes the most sense. The third route is a low-charge app with ads - a hybrid. The cost of the app is weighed by users against it's perceived value - whether high utility, ease of use or immersive or capturing quality. The higher the perceived value, the less resistive a consumer is to the cost to obtain the app, or to tolerate ad intrusiveness. That brings up the next factor - ad intrusiveness. Most free apps have more intrusive ads - to allow more opportunity for ad hits - which results in ad revenue returned. The problem is, when you depend on ad revenue, you immediately abstract your income source, and it becomes harder to determine what affects ad hits. Without isolating the factors affecting ad revenue the developer is always uncertain what to do to maximize income potential for the app.

Add to this platform pressures: For Google it is their desire to not have any paid apps at all - they derive the most value for their profitability from free apps all running ads. So developers are driven to depend on Google's ad revenue machine, which has been demonstrated to be easily hijacked by creative and resourceful web developers. And Google will want to get as much ad revenue out of the mobile space as they can at the outset, before other ad-revenue machines can establish their own share of the revenue pie.

For developers who are less certain about their viability the iOS platform has some reassurances for them by being well-supported, well-controlled and more mature, with a proven track record. For those who are more risk tolerant, the ad-driven space of Android is an acceptable risk. Many developers prefer to develop for more than one platform if it is feasible, as it spreads the risk across several sources, either mitigating failure, or building on success and popularity.

Apple's advantage is a more mature platform and proven profitability/popularity. Android's advantage is a growing ad revenue platform that could be even more profitable in the long run than the more controlled iOs platform. But it is critical to understand that Google is all about the ad revenue machine in the mobile space, and developers will be completely dependent on it.
post #78 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by LewysBlackmore View Post

There are two aspects to this: the installed base AND the demonstrated profitability of that base for the developers. As a developer you have you weight the cost of doing business with a given platform, the reliability of the platform and the income to cost ratio.

...

Great explanation!

I'd still love to get a sense of how many impressions/clicks it would take to match the 70 cents that a developer would make from a 99 cent app.
post #79 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by bstring View Post

All it means is that the ios platform is not the most popular amongst smartphone owners. Apple's client base has always been a niche market until the iphone came along and then they made billions. Now they can go back to making a high end niche product and earn record profits from loyalists. I think it's a winning formula.

On Galaxy S, Samsung also has a winning formula and it's a win-win in a growing market.

I think it means that if me and my significant other want a new phone, a Buy One Get One FREE android offer is easier to pay for. I wish the numbers reflected how many devices SOLD. Every time I see these comparisons I try to fathom how they have anything to due with anything relevant.
post #80 of 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by ollebolle View Post

are you even following, read my first post

So how many iOS devices sold in the US when you count iPads and iPod touch's and how does that number stack up against the number of Android smartphones and Tablets sold in the US?

If there are more iOS devices the platform is still more attractive to developers, which is the thing that underpins the main effect of the Android "beating" iPhone argument. i.e. that developers will be attracted to the most devices, which is still overwhelmingly iOS especially when International markets are taken into consideration.
Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
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Better than my Bose, better than my Skullcandy's, listening to Mozart through my LeBron James limited edition PowerBeats by Dre is almost as good as my Sennheisers.
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