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UBS: iPhone to be dominant device on Verizon at launch

post #1 of 69
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An analyst with UBS AG says Apple's Verizon iPhone will immediately become the carrier's top model, eating up sales of other devices, including Android licensees and RIM's BlackBerry.

John Hodulik, in an interview with Bloomberg, said his firm predicts Verizon will sell as many as 13 million iPhones this year, "largely because of pent-up demand from existing customers."

"Its going to be the dominant device at Verizon as soon as its launched, and, I think, cannibalize the other devices they sell, Hodulik said.

Verizon will provide Apple access to 93.2 million customers, although Verizon has a smaller mix of smartphone users compared to AT&T. Availability of a compatible iPhone may help change that mix for Verizon, which hopes to upgrade a larger percentage of its subscribers to data plans.

Apple has successfully helped AT&T to gain and retain new smartphone customers since launching the iPhone exclusively with that carrier in the US back in 2007. Doing the same thing at Verizon could allow Apple to vastly increase its iPhone sales without major losses at AT&T, which has expressed confidence that it can retain its existing users.

If Verizon can sell 13 million iPhones for Apple this year, it would give Apple an additional $5.2 billion in sales, Hodulik estimated. Apple's stock closed today at $342.45, jumping over 6 points today as Verizon talk reached a fevered pitch.

Last year, Verizon worked to counter the iPhone by promoting phones based on Google's free Android OS. That strategy had replaced the company's focus on RIM's BlackBerry in 2009, and appeared to be successful until the release of iPhone 4. After that, Verizon appeared to see dramatically flatter growth from Android, which seems to have prompted the carrier to partner with Apple on the iPad and begin talks on carrying the iPhone.

post #2 of 69
Sun to rise tomorrow, birds to sing.

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There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

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There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

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post #3 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Sun to rise tomorrow, birds to sing.

Unless the birds fall from the sky without reason.
post #4 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghostface147 View Post

Unless the birds fall from the sky without reason.

The reason was "severe trauma" to the birds...read "Android" for "birds!"

Best
post #5 of 69
I know of at least 10 people that have been waiting for a Verizon iPhone for 3 years now. The pent up demand is epic!
Now let's see how their network takes the load...
post #6 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghostface147 View Post

Unless the birds fall from the sky without reason.

LOL. The pigs got their vengeance. The birds never saw it coming.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #7 of 69
But the fandroids have been claiming that Android has completely defeated iOS and the iPhone is now a distant second. Just go to Cnet and you will see that this is an accepted fact that is mentioned in almost every thread by the techno-dorks. Strangely we haven't seen any counter arguments by the AppleInsider fandroid regulars. I'm sure they're working feverishly to set the record straight.
post #8 of 69
Am I reading the graph incorrectly, or is VZW truely selling more WebOS devices than RIM and Android? If so, then THAT is news right there!

I have a Palm Pre+, and can't wait till the end of my contract to figure out what route I want to go, and what carrier if I choose to break it off with my current one.
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post #9 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

If Verizon can sell 13 million iPhones for Apple this year, it would give Apple an additional $5.2 billion in sales, Hodulik estimated.

Not counting the halo effect with Macs and iPads.

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Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

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post #10 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by camroidv27 View Post

Am I reading the graph incorrectly, or is VZW truely selling more WebOS devices than RIM and Android? If so, then THAT is news right there!

I have a Palm Pre+, and can't wait till the end of my contract to figure out what route I want to go, and what carrier if I choose to break it off with my current one.

They are sitting upon each other as horizontal layers. All those colors equate to the total as represented.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #11 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by camroidv27 View Post

Am I reading the graph incorrectly, or is VZW truely selling more WebOS devices than RIM and Android? If so, then THAT is news right there!

I have a Palm Pre+, and can't wait till the end of my contract to figure out what route I want to go, and what carrier if I choose to break it off with my current one.

Umnmnm yes, it appears you are reading in-correctly at least for last month, as for totals, cannot tell.

Now, am I understanding this correctly, if Verizon were to truely sell 12 million iphones next year(million per month), all things being the same, iphone would take over 50% of the Verizon smart market??

Whole-y underwear! Is this possible??
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post #12 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Verizon will provide Apple access to 93.2 million customers, although Verizon has a smaller mix of smartphone users compared to AT&T. Availability of a compatible iPhone may help change that mix for Verizon, which hopes to upgrade a larger percentage of its subscribers to data plans.

Which simply means more potential upside on Verizon.
post #13 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Sun to rise tomorrow, birds to sing.

It all depends on how angry the birds are.
post #14 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghostface147 View Post

Unless the birds fall from the sky without reason.

Must have been from every frustrated Android owner throwing their Android phones away. Some birds may have just been at the wrong place at the wrong time.

A friend (verizon customer) got tired of waiting for the iPhone and they gave her a DroidX last week. I warned her not to due to the rumors proving true. Of course, she told the Verizon rep about it and they told her it was not coming to their knowledge. She flat out told me yesterday she hated her DroidX as it was so clumsy and complicated, including getting very upset when she heard the news about tomorrow.

She's going to see about getting the iPhone since she's had the DroidX for a week and may qualify to get it returned.

I suspect many Android users currently on Verizon will ditch their phones too and swap to an iPhone.

Loving my AAPL!
post #15 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by camroidv27 View Post

Am I reading the graph incorrectly, or is VZW truely selling more WebOS devices than RIM and Android? If so, then THAT is news right there!

I have a Palm Pre+, and can't wait till the end of my contract to figure out what route I want to go, and what carrier if I choose to break it off with my current one.

I think it's really a combination of WebOS devices and the older OS.
post #16 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by boeyc15 View Post

Umnmnm yes, it appears you are reading in-correctly at least for last month, as for totals, cannot tell.

Now, am I understanding this correctly, if Verizon were to truely sell 12 million iphones next year(million per month), all things being the same, iphone would take over 50% of the Verizon smart market??

Whole-y underwear! Is this possible??

It's true. As the article says, and I've read the same thing on Bloomberg and other business sites, Verizon sells less smart phones than AT&T does. Mostly because AT&T sells so many iPhones. It's expected that Android and BB sales will slow, or even drop on Verizon once the iPhone is available.
post #17 of 69
Slightly off topic, but you know what amazes me? 13 million. Apple will manufacture 13 million iPhones. Not plastic clothes hangers. Not rubber o-rings. Not Coke bottles. No, they will build 13 million iPhones--ultra-complex iPhones.

We all know the stories from Asia, whereby Apple whips its employees until they each pump out 40 iPhones per minute, etc. It's mind boggling to me how they can produce that many phones, regardless of how big the factories are or how many employees they have working 24-hour shifts.

It'd be awesome to get inside the factory to see how it operates. Amazing.
post #18 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

It's true. As the article says, and I've read the same thing on Bloomberg and other business sites, Verizon sells less smart phones than AT&T does. Mostly because AT&T sells so many iPhones. It's expected that Android and BB sales will slow, or even drop on Verizon once the iPhone is available.

This gives Apple even more leverage over Verizon.
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post #19 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

This gives Apple even more leverage over Verizon.

Of course. While Apple needs Verizon to stem the Android tide here, Verizon needs the, let's say, iOS device stream even more. it would be just one more month before AT&T exceeds Verizon's subscriber numbers, and then it would be off, off and away.
post #20 of 69
Verizon has had 3.5 years to prepare for this day. Anything less than a perfect execution will be considered a failure. Verizon has always stated that their network is the best. Let's see how 20 million iPhone users (the amount that AT&T has) downloading realtime video impacts them.
post #21 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by macinthe408 View Post

Slightly off topic, but you know what amazes me? 13 million. Apple will manufacture 13 million iPhones. Not plastic clothes hangers. Not rubber o-rings. Not Coke bottles. No, they will build 13 million iPhones--ultra-complex iPhones.

We all know the stories from Asia, whereby Apple whips its employees until they each pump out 40 iPhones per minute, etc. It's mind boggling to me how they can produce that many phones, regardless of how big the factories are or how many employees they have working 24-hour shifts.

It'd be awesome to get inside the factory to see how it operates. Amazing.

That means a new Verizon iPhone comes off the assembly line every 2 seconds!

There are 525,600 minutes a year.....13 million/525600 minutes is 25 per minute....

That basically equates to a new one every 2 seconds if they operate 24/7 for 365 days a year!

That's insane!
post #22 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Of course. While Apple needs Verizon to stem the Android tide here, Verizon needs the, let's say, iOS device stream even more. it would be just one more month before AT&T exceeds Verizon's subscriber numbers, and then it would be off, off and away.

I can see Verizon also wanting Apple to make a CDMA option for the iPad and wouldnt be surprised to see both items announced tomorrow.

I cant see why Apple wouldnt want to do this. It should be simple with the cellular card that is used. The lack of space limitations should make this relatively simple.
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post #23 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by noexpectations View Post

Verizon has had 3.5 years to prepare for this day. Anything less than a perfect execution will be considered a failure. Verizon has always stated that their network is the best. Let's see how 20 million iPhone users (the amount that AT&T has) downloading realtime video impacts them.


Considering your name, I find this hilarious!
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Progress is a comfortable disease
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post #24 of 69
iOS vs Android on Verizon? Let's see if the Android line up can compete with just ONE phone. 2011 is going to be an interesting year.
post #25 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgl323 View Post

iOS vs Android on Verizon? Let's see if the Android line up can compete with just ONE phone. 2011 is going to be an interesting year.


I'm sure Android will do fine...check out the Motorola Atrix, Droid Bionic and the HTC Thunderbolt! All very nice phones with very neat features, especially the Motorola Atrix. And please before anyone say it, "I'm not a fanboy for any device or OS. I'm a fanboy of technology...(period)" I'm just giving respect , when respect is due.
post #26 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by pirarre View Post

I'm sure Android will do fine...check out the Motorola Atrix, Droid Bionic and the HTC Thunderbolt! All very nice phones with very neat features, especially the Motorola Atrix. And please before anyone say it, "I'm not a fanboy for any device or OS. I'm a fanboy of technology...(period)" I'm just giving respect , when respect is due.

I agree, but I do think the iPhone will slow down Android pace when it debuts on Verizon. And the Motorola Atrix will be heading to AT&T.
post #27 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by pirarre View Post

I'm sure Android will do fine...check out the Motorola Atrix, Droid Bionic and the HTC Thunderbolt! All very nice phones with very neat features, especially the Motorola Atrix. And please before anyone say it, "I'm not a fanboy for any device or OS. I'm a fanboy of technology...(period)" I'm just giving respect , when respect is due.

Sometimes too many non-distinct choices can hurt a product image. Look at what Apple was doing in the mid-90s. They were giving different model names to the same computer being sold at different stores. The overwhelming number of models was often cited as something that hurt Apple quite a bit. Even worse, it was hard to tell what was so different about one from the other. The entire Performa line was just a muddled mess. Who knew what any of those were? It created consumer confusion, wore people out. I was a self-proclaimed Mac guy in the mid-90s and it even got tiresome for me.

All these different Android models flooding the market run the risk of doing the same thing. Too many phones without enough to distinguish one from the other is going to confuse and frustrate the average consumer.
post #28 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I can see Verizon also wanting Apple to make a CDMA option for the iPad and wouldnt be surprised to see both items announced tomorrow.

I cant see why Apple wouldnt want to do this. It should be simple with the cellular card that is used. The lack of space limitations should make this relatively simple.

The iPad (without the space constraints of the iPhone) would be a good candidate for UMTS/CDMA. Does such a chip exist?
post #29 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgl323 View Post

iOS vs Android on Verizon? Let's see if the Android line up can compete with just ONE phone. 2011 is going to be an interesting year.

Fragdroid fanbois just can't help chimpscreaming about U.S. Android sales numbers. But they'll be forced to shut up in a few days. The walls around Android's last safe haven are about to fall.

I hear Android sales in China just might help keep Android afloat. And it makes sense, too. That's where all the running dog Android handset manufacturers are anyway. They can avoid shipping costs.

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post #30 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgl323 View Post

I agree, but I do think the iPhone will slow down Android pace when it debuts on Verizon. And the Motorola Atrix will be heading to AT&T.

iPhone has 60% of AT&T's smartphone market share. And 80% of AT&T's smartphone profits.

After a year or two iPhone will dominate Verizon the same way. Good luck with the Atrix, Moto.

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post #31 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by penchanted View Post

The iPad (without the space constraints of the iPhone) would be a good candidate for UMTS/CDMA. Does such a chip exist?

Technically yes, but Ive never seen one that has included all the bands Apple would need for CDMA/CDMA2000+GSM+UMTS. If anyone has the option for economy of scale to get the cost low enough to have the iPad cover all cellular networks it would be Apple.
http://www.ifixit.com/Teardown/iPad-.../2374/2#s11723 Now even though that Mini-PCIe card is small, its still large compared to how much room the 3G components in the iPhone 4 take up. So its possible they could add it and still sell it carrier free. However, there comes a problem with countries that all GSM/UTMS and have no need for this. I doubt think the solution isnt to make them pay for it but to only supply the world mode version to those markets that could actually use it. Still, I dont see this as likely.
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post #32 of 69
Anyone want to take any bets that Consumer Reports will reissue their "iPhone 4 Sucks" issue as well?
post #33 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

An analyst with UBS AG says Apple's Verizon iPhone will immediately become the carrier's top model, eating up sales of other devices, including Android licensees and RIM's BlackBerry.



Is UBS AG reliable? How about this particular analyst? Without that information, the value of this story is unclear.
post #34 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by lumbergod12 View Post

That means a new Verizon iPhone comes off the assembly line every 2 seconds!

There are 525,600 minutes a year.....13 million/525600 minutes is 25 per minute....

That basically equates to a new one every 2 seconds if they operate 24/7 for 365 days a year!

That's insane!

Go back to your calculator, as that's only Verizon's sales. It's expected that Apple will sell over 60 million phones this year, possibly more.
post #35 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I can see Verizon also wanting Apple to make a CDMA option for the iPad and wouldnt be surprised to see both items announced tomorrow.

I cant see why Apple wouldnt want to do this. It should be simple with the cellular card that is used. The lack of space limitations should make this relatively simple.

Yup. That's why I said iOS rather than iPhone. It probably won't be tomorrow, according to my thinking, but when Apple announces the new model, supposedly the beginning of Feb.
post #36 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by pirarre View Post

I'm sure Android will do fine...check out the Motorola Atrix, Droid Bionic and the HTC Thunderbolt! All very nice phones with very neat features, especially the Motorola Atrix. And please before anyone say it, "I'm not a fanboy for any device or OS. I'm a fanboy of technology...(period)" I'm just giving respect , when respect is due.

Nice phones, but how well will they do? the linked to article holds for the phones as well.

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2375405,00.asp
post #37 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by macinthe408 View Post

Slightly off topic, but you know what amazes me? 13 million. Apple will manufacture 13 million iPhones. Not plastic clothes hangers. Not rubber o-rings. Not Coke bottles. No, they will build 13 million iPhones--ultra-complex iPhones.

We all know the stories from Asia, whereby Apple whips its employees until they each pump out 40 iPhones per minute, etc. It's mind boggling to me how they can produce that many phones, regardless of how big the factories are or how many employees they have working 24-hour shifts.

It'd be awesome to get inside the factory to see how it operates. Amazing.

I know. That equates to over 35,616 per DAY! (over the course of a year) How is that even possible? Is the market demand really there for that? That is amazing.

EDIT - I'm confused. lol
post #38 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by CEOstevie View Post

Is UBS AG reliable? How about this particular analyst? Without that information, the value of this story is unclear.

It's ok. They're all saying it.
post #39 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgl323 View Post

Let's see if the Android line up can compete with just ONE phone.

Why would Verizon do anything as stupid as carrying only one Android phone? There are several excellent Android choices which Verizon already carries.
post #40 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by CEOstevie View Post

Why would Verizon do anything as stupid as carrying only one Android phone? There are several excellent Android choices which Verizon already carries.

It was clear that he was comparing the multiple Android phone lineup at Verizon, to the single model of iPhone which with it will be competing.
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