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Analyst sees CDMA iPhone coming to China Telecom, India's Reliance

post #1 of 22
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One Wall Street analyst said Tuesday that global CDMA carriers, including China Telecom and Indian carrier Reliance, are expected to begin carrying the new CDMA iPhone 4 "over time."

Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty said in a note to investors Tuesday that the announcement of the Verizon CDMA iPhone 4 supports her already above consensus iPhone sales forecast of 72 million units in the 2011 calendar year. Wall Street consensus projects iPhone sales to reach 60-65 million this year.

Huberty is optimistic about sales of the Verizon iPhone, noting that proprietary Morgan Stanley surveys suggest the Verizon subscriber base could add 7-8 million iPhone users for a total of "10-11 million incremental shipments, including those who switch to Verizon."

"If near-term demand from Verizon customers isnt noticeably impacted by the expected iPhone 5 launch in mid-2011, we expect our iPhone estimates to move higher over the next three months," Huberty wrote.

The analyst sees Apple's non-exclusive agreement with Verizon as a potential opportunity for T-Mobile or Sprint, though global CDMA carriers seem more likely.

"Apples multi-year, non-exclusive agreement with VZ opens up the possibility of Apple adding other carriers in the US including T-Mobile and Sprint. Whats more, we expect CDMA carrier announcements including China Telecom and Reliance in India over time."

Both carriers named are rumored to be in discussions with Apple over the iPhone. China Telecom, China's third largest wireless carrier, is reportedly already in talks with Apple. According to The Wall Street Journal, Reliance and rival Indian CDMA carrier Tata Teleservices have both been engaged in negotiations with Apple over a CDMA iPhone.

If Apple's new CDMA iPhone helps it to expand its reach in China and India, which are widely considered to be the two fastest growing mobile markets, the iPhone maker could make substantial profits. India has seen growth rates as high as 18 million new users a month in recent years. CDMA users in India make up roughly 20% of the country's more than 670 million subscribers.

According to analyst Brian White of Ticonderoga Securities, China is in the "early stages of catching 'Apple fever,'" as China Unicom struggles to keep up with demand for the iPhone 4.

Huberty views China as an "unappreciated" potential growth driver for Apple. Surveys show that mind share and brand loyalty for Apple are steadily increasing among Chinese consumers.

Noticeably missing from Huberty's short list of future CDMA carriers, however, is China Mobile, the world's largest wireless provider with over 570 million customers. Though the carrier has expressed interest in carrying the iPhone, China Mobile's proprietary homegrown 3G TD-SCDMA standard would require a custom version of the iPhone.

There have been vague reports of a "cooperation agreement" being reached between Apple and China Mobile, but it remains unclear whether China Mobile will carry the iPhone in the near future.
post #2 of 22
AAPL has got to be the strangest growth stock ever...
This ginormous company seems to be growing like a startup just catching on! It hardly seems possible that Apple can keep growing at these rates, but then when you look at where they make their money there is room for significant growth in all but the iPod market. Just mind blowing...
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post #3 of 22
I wonder what the potential actual market is for iPhone CDMA in the rest of the world. Surely Verizon is the largest single carrier when you consider subscriber number and customers able and willing to pay the smartphone and usage plan costs.

Note, if you pull up the list of CDMA subscribers you may want to remove the ones that are CDMA for ‘2G’ but have since focused completely on UMTS for ‘3G’. S. Korea is one of those countries. Only about 8 million (20% of their entire country’s subscriber base) could take advantage of the new iPhone, the other 33 million would benefit greater with the current iPhone.
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post #4 of 22
It's not hard to imagine 72 million in demand but 72 million units produced in a single year. Wow.
post #5 of 22
If it's non-exclusive, the only carrier to turn it away will be T-Mobile because the Infineon Gold chipsets have an amazing ability to not work at 1900 or 1700MHz.

They power up in the BCCH when they shouldn't, they crosstalk into other timeslots, they don't accept power level commands and overall, remain incompatible. Every time an Infineon comes on the network, they drop 3 or 4 other customers.
post #6 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by funny-man View Post

If it's non-exclusive, the only carrier to turn it away will be T-Mobile because the Infineon Gold chipsets have an amazing ability to not work at 1900 or 1700MHz.

They power up in the BCCH when they shouldn't, they crosstalk into other timeslots, they don't accept power level commands and overall, remain incompatible. Every time an Infineon comes on the network, they drop 3 or 4 other customers.

UNLESS it's at 800MHz. Infineon chipsets work well at 850/800MHz

Other than that, they're crap and shouldn't be used in any serious application.
post #7 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

AAPL has got to be the strangest growth stock ever...
This ginormous company seems to be growing like a startup just catching on! It hardly seems possible that Apple can keep growing at these rates, but then when you look at where they make their money there is room for significant growth in all but the iPod market. Just mind blowing...

Good observation. Apple is a "premium" brand consistently showing record profits in a "bad" economy! Very strange indeed. But, as a stockholder (and long-time Apple enthusiast), I say, bring on the strangeness!

I really hope the iPhone 4 comes to India--and that Apple advertises in India!!! Apple supposedly was disappointed at poor sales of the original iPhone when released in India, but that was because there was ZERO marketing! It's as if they just dropped a box of iPhones by the side of the road and drove away. And the meme that most Indians can't afford Apple products simply doesn't fly, because Mercedes, BMW, Skoda, and other high end luxury brands advertise heavily in India, and, as far as I can tell, do quite well here.
Indians aren't gonna buy something we know nothing about. We will buy stuff that's "cool" and "awesome"!
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post #8 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by Futuristic View Post

Good observation. Apple is a "premium" brand consistently showing record profits in a "bad" economy! Very strange indeed. But, as a stockholder (and long-time Apple enthusiast), I say, bring on the strangeness!

I really hope the iPhone 4 comes to India--and that Apple advertises in India!!! Apple supposedly was disappointed at poor sales of the original iPhone when released in India, but that was because there was ZERO marketing! It's as if they just dropped a box of iPhones by the side of the road and drove away. And the meme that most Indians can't afford Apple products simply doesn't fly, because Mercedes, BMW, Skoda, and other high end luxury brands advertise heavily in India, and, as far as I can tell, do quite well here.
Indians aren't gonna buy something we know nothing about. We will buy stuff that's "cool" and "awesome"!

Where are they going to get the iPhone or iPads to even put in this market? Just curious. Seems as though they're having a hard time in the markets they're in. So how do you suppose they're going to get these "extra" devices?
post #9 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aeolian View Post

Where are they going to get the iPhone or iPads to even put in this market? Just curious. Seems as though they're having a hard time in the markets they're in. So how do you suppose they're going to get these "extra" devices?

New Foxconn factory reportedly for iPhone production was slated to be in full swing the first part of 2011. It’s reported to have cost $100M to build, house 200k workers, and make 200k iPhones per day. It was also suspected as being specifically for CDMA iPhone production, but I think it’s likely to be a mix.
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post #10 of 22
This is total speculation based on nothing. Huberty is selling smoke.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

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post #11 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

AAPL has got to be the strangest growth stock ever...
This ginormous company seems to be growing like a startup just catching on! It hardly seems possible that Apple can keep growing at these rates, but then when you look at where they make their money there is room for significant growth in all but the iPod market. Just mind blowing...

It's because for all it's retail staff, the company is still extremely lean in personnel size:

Via Google:

Employees:

Apple: 46,600
Hewlett Packard: 324,600
Microsoft: 89,000
Dell: 94,300
IBM: 399,409
Sony: 171,900
Nokia: 131,553
Motorola Solutions Inc: 53,000 [one of two companies from original Moto]
Motorola Mobility Holdings: 20,000 [one of two companies from original Moto]
Oracle: 105,730 [after Sun merger]
Samsung: 157,700+

With all that Apple now produces in hardware and software they are a very lean, robust and well-placed corporation for the next decade.
post #12 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by penchanted View Post

It's not hard to imagine 72 million in demand but 72 million units produced in a single year. Wow.

Look, Samsung makes way over 100 million units last year. Sure, it was not all smartphones, but still. Samsung wants triple its smartphones sales from 20 millions to 60 this year. That would help android a lot. Apple needs to sell 200 million in one year.
post #13 of 22
I'm sure we will NOT see an iPhone 5 this year. Apple already have a great, unparalleled hardware in iPhone 4. Retina Display just screams. CDMA iPhone 4 investments are required to return, three months are just not enough for that. LTE networks are not ready for full launch. IPhone 4 performs so great, regardless even Antennagate. So why bother to launch new hardware?

I believe Apple should take a break in making new iPhone hardware. Make an iOS 4.5 this summer, it would be quite enough. So many great things can be done in iOS software, as we see it in CDMA Hotspot feature.

And prepare greatest iPhone 5 in 2012. With LTE, CDMA and GSM united in one phone, projector, NFC, Bluetooth 3.0, double-core A5 processor, full-HD video, HDMI, micro-USB charge etc.

I'll be happy with that!
post #14 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aeolian View Post

Where are they going to get the iPhone or iPads to even put in this market? Just curious. Seems as though they're having a hard time in the markets they're in. So how do you suppose they're going to get these "extra" devices?

I'm fairly certain that Apple's lack of presence in India is not in any way due to too much demand in the U.S. and Europe. If Apple marketed in India, and created demand here, they would find a way to meet that demand. Maybe even build manufacturing facilities in India, though I would be concerned about quality control.
To be blunt, Apple has never paid any serious attention to this part of the world for whatever reason. Apple's scarcity here has led to a perception that it's a "luxury" brand, and hence has a 30-50% "luxury tax" applied, which reinforces that luxury perception, in a fairly unpleasant positive feedback loop. Other electronics brands (Dell, Acer, HP, etc.) don't get those kinds of mark-ups, as far as I know. Sigh.
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post #15 of 22
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Originally Posted by SergeSF View Post

[B]And prepare greatest iPhone 5 in 2012. With LTE, CDMA and GSM united in one phone, projector, NFC, Bluetooth 3.0, double-core A5 processor, full-HD video, HDMI, micro-USB charge etc.

I want it to make breakfast every morning and do my laundry as well!
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post #16 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

New Foxconn factory reportedly for iPhone production was slated to be in full swing the first part of 2011. Its reported to have cost $100M to build, house 200k workers, and make 200k iPhones per day. It was also suspected as being specifically for CDMA iPhone production, but I think its likely to be a mix.

Given Apple's ability to make the Star Trek product a reality they really need to be getting that Replicator perfected for their production needs and soon!
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
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post #17 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by SergeSF View Post

I'm sure we will NOT see an iPhone 5 this year. Apple already have a great, unparalleled hardware in iPhone 4. Retina Display just screams. CDMA iPhone 4 investments are required to return, three months are just not enough for that. LTE networks are not ready for full launch. IPhone 4 performs so great, regardless even Antennagate. So why bother to launch new hardware?

I believe Apple should take a break in making new iPhone hardware. Make an iOS 4.5 this summer, it would be quite enough. So many great things can be done in iOS software, as we see it in CDMA Hotspot feature.

And prepare greatest iPhone 5 in 2012. With LTE, CDMA and GSM united in one phone, projector, NFC, Bluetooth 3.0, double-core A5 processor, full-HD video, HDMI, micro-USB charge etc.

I'll be happy with that!

By then maybe we will need a separate device for pesky phone calls :LOL:

I have to think iPhone 5 (or what ever it gets named - iPhone 4G maybe more apt) will be the true 4G version and that can't happen until we have a 4G network (rather than pretend 4G networks). Having said that 4G is a reality in Scandinavia already this year I seem to recall.
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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post #18 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Given Apple's ability to make the Star Trek product a reality they really need to be getting that Replicator perfected for their production needs and soon!

And Holodeck technology!!!
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post #19 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by SergeSF View Post

I'm sure we will NOT see an iPhone 5 this year. Apple already have a great, unparalleled hardware in iPhone 4. Retina Display just screams. CDMA iPhone 4 investments are required to return, three months are just not enough for that. LTE networks are not ready for full launch. IPhone 4 performs so great, regardless even Antennagate. So why bother to launch new hardware?

I believe Apple should take a break in making new iPhone hardware. Make an iOS 4.5 this summer, it would be quite enough. So many great things can be done in iOS software, as we see it in CDMA Hotspot feature.

And prepare greatest iPhone 5 in 2012. With LTE, CDMA and GSM united in one phone, projector, NFC, Bluetooth 3.0, double-core A5 processor, full-HD video, HDMI, micro-USB charge etc.

I'll be happy with that!



+1,000!

Entirely AGREED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We NEED " A BREAK for A Deep Breath " Sometimes!
post #20 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by yodaxl7 View Post

Look, Samsung makes way over 100 million units last year. Sure, it was not all smartphones, but still. Samsung wants triple its smartphones sales from 20 millions to 60 this year. That would help android a lot. Apple needs to sell 200 million in one year.

That may be but Samsung has been in the phone business for a long time. It is just quite breathtaking to think that Apple went for 0 to 72M units in four years.
post #21 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by SergeSF View Post

I'm sure we will NOT see an iPhone 5 this year. Apple already have a great, unparalleled hardware in iPhone 4. Retina Display just screams. CDMA iPhone 4 investments are required to return, three months are just not enough for that. LTE networks are not ready for full launch. IPhone 4 performs so great, regardless even Antennagate. So why bother to launch new hardware?

I believe Apple should take a break in making new iPhone hardware. Make an iOS 4.5 this summer, it would be quite enough. So many great things can be done in iOS software, as we see it in CDMA Hotspot feature.

And prepare greatest iPhone 5 in 2012. With LTE, CDMA and GSM united in one phone, projector, NFC, Bluetooth 3.0, double-core A5 processor, full-HD video, HDMI, micro-USB charge etc.

I'll be happy with that!

Maybe you would be happy with that but the market would not. Apple will announce a new version of the iPhone this summer that will include some new hardware. I agree it won't be LTE but you can bet there will be some improvements.

As far as recouping their CDMA investment, a new phone still contributes to said investment. Besides, I think Apple wants Verizon to be able to offer a $99 iPhone just like ATT.
post #22 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by SergeSF View Post

I'm sure we will NOT see an iPhone 5 this year. Apple already have a great, unparalleled hardware in iPhone 4. Retina Display just screams. CDMA iPhone 4 investments are required to return, three months are just not enough for that. LTE networks are not ready for full launch. IPhone 4 performs so great, regardless even Antennagate. So why bother to launch new hardware?

HSPA+, the faster network technology that most of the world is now running on. Coming to you on the iPhone 5 this summer.
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