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Apple outlook raised to 7 million iPads, 4.3 million Macs for Q1 2011

post #1 of 21
Thread Starter 
Apple is expected to beat even some above-consensus revenue numbers when it announces earnings Tuesday night, having sold new peak numbers of iPhones, iPads and Macs in the winter quarter.

Analyst Mark Moskowitz of JP Morgan has weighed in with an earnings expectations report that expects "Apple to beat our above-consensus revenue and EPS estimates of $24.778 billion and $5.38," noting that "the Street consensus is at $24.226 billion and $5.34."

In an earlier report, Kathy Huberty of Morgan Stanley forecast $23.9B in revenue and $5.25 EPS, on sales of 16 million iPhones, 5.5 millions iPads, 17 million iPods and 4 million Macs.

Last month, Moskowitz estimated iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales of 15.1 million, 6.7 million, and 4.3 million respectively.

"Our recent research indicates, however," Moskowitz wrote today, "that the actual iPhone numbers could track closer to 16.0 to 16.1 million units and iPad shipments could be 6.9 to 7.0 million units. We do not expect much of a delta to our current Mac unit estimate. We believe that the potential iPhone and iPad outperformance could add 'at least' $0.25 of EPS upside potential."

Steve Jobs' medical leave likely to overshadow strong earnings report

Moskowitz added, "In our view, Mondays news of Mr. Jobs medical leave will weigh on shares of Apple in the near term. We highlight partial offsets, though. Apple has been down this road previously, and the management team, under COO Tim Cook's direction, has executed very well.

"Also, we think that the F1Q11 earnings report, the Feb. 10 Verizon iPhone launch, and Apples ongoing market share momentum in tablets and PCs should refocus investors on the unrivaled model that Mr. Jobs and his team have built and sustained."

In a separate report, Moskowitz noted, "Mr. Jobs previously had taken leaves to receive a liver transplant (2009) and battle pancreatic cancer (2004). The totality of these medical leaves does suggest Mr. Jobs' health wellness profile may not be what investors prefer, but we point out that Apples strategic initiatives have not been derailed by past medical leaves. This dynamic is important, given Mr. Jobs reputation of being involved in the workflow from proof-of-concept to product announcement.

"While not knowing the details behind the current medical leave, we point out that Mr. Jobs has demonstrated a great resolve to improve his health previously, emboldened by the attitude and philosophy that helped him lead Apples remarkable rise over the past decade. In our view, Mr. Jobs and his team have made Apple become the primal force in shaping consumers' technology-driven 'way of life.' While the competition is increasing in the areas of smartphones and tablets, we do not expect Apple's technology and user experience leadership to fade.

"As with past medical leaves, we expect investors and the media to debate whether or not the Apple management team can execute with Mr. Jobs on leave. We believe the proof is 'in-the-pudding.' Apple has been a technology company without rival over the past decade in terms of a large cap growth story that just keeps getting bigger and stronger. During this period, there were times when Apples management team, under the direction of COO Tim Cook, had to run the company without Mr. Jobs on a temporary basis, and there were no major missteps. We expect much of the same this time."
post #2 of 21
1st post w00t
post #3 of 21
It's interesting to see the investment firms that have banked heavily on AAPL's continued rise now step in and try to reassure everyone.
post #4 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"As with past medical leaves, we expect investors and the media to debate whether or not the Apple management team can execute with Mr. Jobs on leave. We believe the proof is 'in-the-pudding.'

What sort of crazy language is this: Is pudding a code-word for precedent? Hint: proof means test and the expression is "the proof of the pudding is in the eating" (Ye olde advice to let the dog/servant have a nibble first you risk some yourself)
post #5 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by enzos View Post

What sort of crazy language is this: Is pudding a code-word for precedent? Hint: proof means test and the expression is "the proof of the pudding is in the eating" (Ye olde advice to let the dog/servant have a nibble first you risk some yourself)

Abuse of metaphors is all the rage nowadays. Though... I'm not even sure if proof-is-in-the-pudding is a metaphor or not!
post #6 of 21
What's a joke to me is seeing these firms try to up one another on estimates. They are eventually going to step passed absurd and I wonder if that keeps the stock from climbing.

I can see the read, ``We had Apple earing $10/share and though their prior year quarter of just over $6/share was surpassed by today's $9.50/share they didn't hit our target so we have them as a HOLD.''

You know it's going to approach that sooner rather than later, at the rate they keep trying to be the first to predict the closest, as if they get a gold star for trying to guess after dozens of way off quarter predictions.
post #7 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

1st post w00t

That said nothing of any interest, what a waste of time.

Anyway, so what happens if Apple don't meet these over inflated predictions again?
After all they are nothing more than guesses being made by analysts.
When they did this last time and Apple did not sell as many devices as the analysts 'guessed' then the stock price when down!!!!!
post #8 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wonder View Post

That said nothing of any interest, what a waste of time.

Anyway, so what happens if Apple don't meet these over inflated predictions again?
After all they are nothing more than guesses being made by analysts.
When they did this last time and Apple did not sell as many devices as the analysts 'guessed' then the stock price when down!!!!!

I don't think there is too much of a downside to missing projections that were bumped the day before results are released. When they missed the iPad numbers last time, people had been way over for a while...
Still, it will be hard to tell what happens today Re: projections, results and stock price because there is another variable that trumps all others!
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
Reply
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
Reply
post #9 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by enzos View Post

What sort of crazy language is this: Is pudding a code-word for precedent? Hint: proof means test and the expression is "the proof of the pudding is in the eating" (Ye olde advice to let the dog/servant have a nibble first you risk some yourself)

I think this one is common enough that even knowledgable people use it. Language is littered with idioms that have become disassociated with their original meaning or abbreviated to the point of nonsense outside of shared context.
No one gets upset if you answer the question of how something was with "piece of cake!" because we all know what it means even if it makes no sense anymore.

Instead of getting upset with "the proof is in the pudding" it brings a smile to my face even as it conveys exactly what the writer/speaker intended... (That being said, I probably wouldn't use it in professional writing myself.)
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
Reply
Progress is a comfortable disease
--e.e.c.
Reply
post #10 of 21
"Blah, blah , blah........under the direction of COO Tim Cook, had to run the company without Mr. Jobs on a temporary basis, and there were no major missteps. We expect much of the same this time."

Let's see -there was AppleTV stagnation, a disastrous iPod shuffle, Chinese iPhone rollout- am I missing anything? Good luck Apple.
post #11 of 21
Between Jobs' sick leave and massive profits, expect a big sell-off and a stock price drop.

I think that could be a buying opportunity.
post #12 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wonder View Post

That said nothing of any interest, what a waste of time.

post #13 of 21
Going to be a wild ride today...

Apple Rally is accelerating on Frankfurt Exchange - up 4%.

post #14 of 21
If an analyst says they expect Apple to beat their prior estimate, then doesn't that in itself become their new estimate?

Sometimes I think analysts sit down and type up some words just to have something to do. Kinda like me this morning.
post #15 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eriamjh View Post

Between Jobs' sick leave and massive profits, expect a big sell-off and a stock price drop.

I think that could be a buying opportunity.

I agree, it will be a great opportunity. I also think that the market will agree with you, which will mitigate the opportunity a bit.

Still, I'm going ahead with my plan to buy 50 shares, but instead of doing it all this morning, I'm getting 25 today and 25 tomorrow.
post #16 of 21
Its amazing that Apple sells over 40 million hardware units (computers essentially) in one quarter... As someone reported on a post in another thread, 10 years ago this was a pipe dream for Apple...

Apple has come so far...

Mr. Dell must be scratching his head.
post #17 of 21
I think (God willing) that Steve plans on running Apple until at least 2020. He won't be satisfied until Apple dominates not just the living room but the entire house.
post #18 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Abuse of metaphors is all the rage nowadays. Though... I'm not even sure if proof-is-in-the-pudding is a metaphor or not!

Well, certainly not with all those unnecessary hyphens.

@ enzos: thanks for the interesting clarification of the old saying.
post #19 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by iLiver View Post

"Blah, blah , blah........under the direction of COO Tim Cook, had to run the company without Mr. Jobs on a temporary basis, and there were no major missteps. We expect much of the same this time."

Let's see -there was AppleTV stagnation, a disastrous iPod shuffle, Chinese iPhone rollout- am I missing anything? Good luck Apple.

I can't agree with anything you said there.
post #20 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I can't agree with anything you said there.

For starters, his post ignores that Cook was not responsible for product decisions - his first two points.
post #21 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ecphorizer View Post

Well, certainly not with all those unnecessary hyphens.

PFFT
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