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Orders for Apple's CDMA iPhone increased to 15M in 2011 - report

post #1 of 15
Thread Starter 
Strong initial demand for the forthcoming CDMA iPhone 4 has caused Apple to increase its CDMA-compatible handset orders to as many as 15 million in 2011.

Taiwanese publication DigiTimes reported Tuesday that total volume for the newly announced CDMA iPhone is expected to be between 12 million and 15 million this year. Taiwan-based notebook maker Pegatron Technology recently started shipping its initial orders, and had originally internally forecast to ship just 10 million CDMA handsets.

But citing "strong" demand, Pegatron's internal shipment projections for the CDMA iPhone, which will be compatible with the Verizon network in the U.S., are now between 12 million and 15 million units, according to an anonymous source out of the Far East.

Apple and Verizon announced earlier this month that a new CDMA variant of the iPhone 4, compatible with Verizon's network, will launch on Feb. 10 starting at $199. Other reports have suggested the new CDMA iPhone will make its way to other countries, including China, Japan and South Korea.

Tuesday's report was not limited exclusively to the iPhone 4, suggesting that Pegatron could also be producing a CDMA version of Apple's anticipated "iPhone 5" this summer. However, one report this week claimed that the next iPhone will actually be a dual-mode GSM-CDMA world phone, negating the need for a CDMA-specific handset.

Also Tuesday, DigiTimes filed a report noting that the medical leave of absence from Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs is not expected to impact overseas component suppliers. Taiwan-based partners such as have not seen changes to orders, while sales are not expected to be impacted either. Specifically named were optical lens suppliers Largan PRecision, Genius Electronic Optical and Asia Optical.

"Since these makers have not yet received any updates about Apple changing its supply plans, while Apple is unlikely to change its existing projects significantly, the projects for the makers to jointly develop optical lenses with Apple should not see any delays," the report said.
post #2 of 15
I've got a limit order in to buy apple shares today if they lose too much ground due to the Jobs health news.

Only a great fool would sell Apple today, but the world is full of fools. More money for me!
post #3 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

I've got a limit order in to buy apple shares today if they lose too much ground due to the Jobs health news.

Only a great fool would sell Apple today, but the world is full of fools. More money for me!

It's off almost 5% so far, with quite a bit of volume being traded. I expect a drop to -10% max before picking back up to close say at -5%. Given Steve has taken a break before and with their best earnings, everything ever to be announced at the end of the day, there'll be a lot of volume but I don't think it will close too badly.
post #4 of 15
High demand? No one has even had a chance to order one yet! Unless it reflects a deal with a carrier other than Verizon and outside the US, somehow I think this rumor is a bunch of BS.
post #5 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by AIaddict View Post

High demand? No one has even had a chance to order one yet! Unless it reflects a deal with a carrier other than Verizon and outside the US, somehow I think this rumor is a bunch of BS.

Let's see, Verizon sees more interest than expected, wants more units from Apple which causes Apple to order more from their suppliers. Hence, High demand.
post #6 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by GotWake View Post

Let's see, Verizon sees more interest than expected, wants more units from Apple which causes Apple to order more from their suppliers. Hence, High demand.

Yeah but it is too soon for that. Verizon has not taken a single order. The buzz and web hits wont tell them the difference between demand for 10 million and demand for 12-15 million. They are going to need much more precise purchasing data to make that kind of forecast.
post #7 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by GotWake View Post

Let's see, Verizon sees more interest than expected, wants more units from Apple which causes Apple to order more from their suppliers. Hence, High demand.

I doubt they will split suppliers for any single country. I always thought the CDMA variants in Korea, Japan, and China weren't directly compatible with the US standards, which would add a reason other than simple logistics to the mix.
post #8 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by AIaddict View Post

Yeah but it is too soon for that. Verizon has not taken a single order. The buzz and web hits wont tell them the difference between demand for 10 million and demand for 12-15 million. They are going to need much more precise purchasing data to make that kind of forecast.

Its a strange report alright. There are neither orders, nor pre-orders taken by Verizon. Are they basing this on increase in traffic to the site?
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post #9 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by AIaddict View Post

Yeah but it is too soon for that. Verizon has not taken a single order. The buzz and web hits wont tell them the difference between demand for 10 million and demand for 12-15 million. They are going to need much more precise purchasing data to make that kind of forecast.

Oh, given the number of years they have been in business, I'm sure Verizon has developed a pretty good forecasting model that uses data like number of inquiry phone calls and emails, number of page views on their iPhone page, etc. It's not surprising that their forecasts pre-announcement and post-announcement of iPhone demand have changed. It's not because their model suddenly became inherently more accurate, it's more because their input data got updated. For example, their earlier estimate could have been based on their best guess of the number of inquiries about the iPhone and this estimate may have turned out to be low. You know, things like that.
post #10 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post

Oh, given the number of years they have been in business, I'm sure Verizon has developed a pretty good forecasting model that uses data like number of inquiry phone calls and emails, number of page views on their iPhone page, etc. It's not surprising that their forecasts pre-announcement and post-announcement of iPhone demand have changed. It's not because their model suddenly became inherently more accurate, it's more because their input data got updated. For example, their earlier estimate could have been based on their best guess of the number of inquiries about the iPhone and this estimate may have turned out to be low. You know, things like that.

++

exactly right.
post #11 of 15
So, if the rumor of a dual-mode iPhone are true, one that has both GSM and CDMA in it, I have a technical question for those who may be more familiar. We know an LTE phone is backward compatible to a GSM network, correct? So if I have an LTE phone it will "step-down" to GSM if LTE isn't available.

Is the opposite true? Can an LTE network "step-down" to allow a GSM phone to work on it? So if there was a GSM/CDMA iPhone, would it still work once the footprint of the 3G networks started diminishing and was replaced by LTE (realizing it will be a long time before that happens)?

A CDMA/unlocked GSM iPhone would be a nice option to have.
post #12 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

It's off almost 5% so far, with quite a bit of volume being traded. I expect a drop to -10% max before picking back up to close say at -5%. Given Steve has taken a break before and with their best earnings, everything ever to be announced at the end of the day, there'll be a lot of volume but I don't think it will close too badly.

Yeah, it looks like maybe people aren't as dumb as I had hoped. I don't think my limit is going to be reached. If only the blowhards in Internet forums would short their life savings on Apple -- then I could make some $$
post #13 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

Yeah, it looks like maybe people aren't as dumb as I had hoped. I don't think my limit is going to be reached. If only the blowhards in Internet forums would short their life savings on Apple -- then I could make some $$

Apple is a sell on news stock. It will collapse tomorrow regardless of the results ( and totally dive if anything even fails to reach the street's whisper).

Which is when I am going in.
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
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I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
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post #14 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by AIaddict View Post

High demand? No one has even had a chance to order one yet! Unless it reflects a deal with a carrier other than Verizon and outside the US, somehow I think this rumor is a bunch of BS.

Exactly. Now if they has said 'expected strong demand' that would make sense.
post #15 of 15
I bet they are seeing sharply reduced demand for Android phones, but that shouldn't really be enough to make them confidently order more iPhones...or should it?
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