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Apple's 'stunning' first quarter exceeds Wall Street's lofty expectations - Page 2

post #41 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

This (quote below) is a first as far as I can remember. Apple always conservatively under estimate. Perhaps this is a move to offset market fears related to the announcement by Steve that he is taking a leave of absence. I cannot imagine it is a sign of a change of leadership style this early on. Cook is so on the same page as Steve I have to think this has Steve's fingerprints on it.

"Apple has predicted it will report revenue of about $22 billion in its next earnings release, higher than Wall Street's anticipated $21 billion."

I would hope (and I believe) that Apple computes their estimates independently from the analysts. They don't say "hmm, the analysts are saying we'll make $X billion next quarter so let's announce that we expect to make 95% of $X billion to be 'conservative.'"

Instead they crunched their numbers and came up with an estimate of $22 billion using their standard forecasting model. It just happens that this time, their estimate based on what they know and their methodology is (surprisingly) higher than the average of the analysts.

I don't think that's gamesmanship or an attempt to make up for Steve's LOA. Apple is bullish on themselves. That's good news.
post #42 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by radster360 View Post

So if Apple is always conservative with their estimates and the analysts are also conservative, so basically we are getting a low-low estimates. But, at end of the day at the earning reports, this company continues to have record quarters and not my margin, but significantly! But, the stock got punished today. Today, was a very good example of that. Not that is matters to me as I am long term on this one!

AAPL actually did okay today considering it was an awful market.

The analysts write their reports for their clients, to whom they have financial obligations, so they are conservative by nature. The bloggers don't have any constituency besides their readers, so they can afford to take more risks with their estimates.

The concept of setting "records" is overrated. If a company doesn't set a record every quarter, that means their profits are declining. Not good. Also, a company can set a record every quarter with a gain of 1%. That would also not be good. So the real measure is by how much. In Apple's case, a whole lot. That's why Apple's performance is so stellar. The earnings growth rate has been phenomenal.
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post #43 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by radster360 View Post

So if Apple is always conservative with their estimates and the analysts are also conservative, so basically we are getting a low-low estimates. But, at end of the day at the earning reports, this company continues to have record quarters and not my margin, but significantly! But, the stock got punished today. Today, was a very good example of that. Not that is matters to me as I am long term on this one!

There is an element of "inflation" to be considered with earnings estimates. Like grade inflation: an "A" doesn't mean what it used to mean. There's not much we can do about it other than to recalibrate your expectations accordingly.

Dr Millmoss says he uses a 10% rule of thumb. It appears it's a good rule.
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post #44 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by john galt View Post

There is an element of "inflation" to be considered with earnings estimates. Like grade inflation: an "A" doesn't mean what it used to mean. There's not much we can do about it other than to recalibrate your expectations accordingly.

Dr Millmoss says he uses a 10% rule of thumb. It appears it's a good rule.

Or it's a good thumb. Thanks for remembering.
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post #45 of 55
That's great Apple, you're making your shareholders rich. How about giving your customers a break and reducing the Apple tax a little? You might even gain market share.
post #46 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

That's great Apple, you're making your shareholders rich. How about giving your customers a break and reducing the Apple tax a little? You might even gain market share.

The "apple tax" is a myth. It always has been. Repeating the same tired phrase in nearly every one of your posts won't make it true.

The market is the ultimate arbiter of a product's value. The market has clearly determined Apple's pricing structure to be appropriate.
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post #47 of 55
.

With all due respect to my esteem colleagues listed above ...

Yawn
.

Not one, not a single one, used one particular word

In fact, as my Safari 'word search feature' revealed

Not even another Posting used this particular word

And now is THE word for Apple

**** International *****

+60% of Sales

AND - China's Numbers, yeow

.

Don't know how USA's Future Tech Path will play out, are a lot of Eggs in Microsoft's Basket

And a lot of 'Experts' here who proved their true worth in recent years

But the Global Village knows the Real Deal when they finally see it

Change The World

.
post #48 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by BC Kelly View Post

And now is THE word for Apple

**** International *****

+60% of Sales

AND - China's Numbers, yeow

Don't forget India and Korea - enormous market potential.

In fairness, going from zero sales to anything is significant, but I agree Asia has been conspicuously absent from nearly everyone's analysis.

The non-US market is like the story about the shoemaker who settles in a village where everyone goes barefoot.
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post #49 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by john galt View Post

the "apple tax" is a myth. It always has been. Repeating the same tired phrase in nearly every one of your posts won't make it true.

The market is the ultimate arbiter of a product's value. The market has clearly determined apple's pricing structure to be appropriate.


well said... Thank you
post #50 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by john galt View Post

Don't forget India and Korea - enormous market potential.

In fairness, going from zero sales to anything is significant, but I agree Asia has been conspicuously absent from nearly everyone's analysis.

The non-US market is like the story about the shoemaker who settles in a village where everyone goes barefoot.

well now in the usa nyc subways i see all groups races colors using the iphone touch
i see as many HERE have just stated world wide people are buying anything apple .
the 160g ipod is still incredible
the ipod touch may be the coolest pocket item ever invented
on and on i can praise the gods of apple
and apple products get passed on too buddies and little bro's and or wive's or sold on bay

MBP and MBA still only hold 10 % market share > at 30 % apple will be stunning

the IPAD is still only 3 % market saturation

the iphone has 19 % saturation

and how many kids are turning 14 yrs old today and want an ipod touch
and next YEAR theres a whole new batch of kids who want there apple MBP's or touches or whatever's

yet only 30 percent of the world can even buy an apple product right now
when 2014 hits and 70% has full access apple will sky rocket

this last quarter was wonderful
and with the stock sell off
its time to buy aapl

and get well soon mr Jobs
we miss you already dude

peace

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post #51 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by malax View Post

I would hope (and I believe) that Apple computes their estimates independently from the analysts. They don't say "hmm, the analysts are saying we'll make $X billion next quarter so let's announce that we expect to make 95% of $X billion to be 'conservative.'"

Instead they crunched their numbers and came up with an estimate of $22 billion using their standard forecasting model. It just happens that this time, their estimate based on what they know and their methodology is (surprisingly) higher than the average of the analysts.

I don't think that's gamesmanship or an attempt to make up for Steve's LOA. Apple is bullish on themselves. That's good news.

Ok but you have to admit Apple are always conservative or have been in the past. It is staggering to see Apple that bullish after all these years. Exciting too... if a little scary
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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post #52 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamewing View Post

Just a note of wisdom:

Nothing last forever. Sony was once a top player in the portable music device scene, but their own hubris brought them down. Look at Nintendo recently as well. Anyone with an ounce of sense should understand that this growth of Apple's (while quite nice) won't last forever. The moment the growth slows Apple will (while still making $$$) will be seen as a company that has reached maturity and is heading downward. I am not saying this will happen soon, but it will happen.

Also, I really don't expect Jobs to last much longer, health-wise. I hope Apple has a strong and wise replacement for Jobs, because right now people equate Apple and Apple's success with Steve Jobs...they see them as one in the same. When he goes...???

You have companies like General Electric that have successfully diversified their products and evolved from their more humble beginnings - are you claiming that companies can't do that anymore? Hasn't Apple evolved from a desktop computer company into a mobile devices company that does desktops, mp3 media devices and content delivery boxes as well as software?

I've mentioned this before, as someone who is from the same generation as and was in technology alongside Jobs, Gates and the sundry other players who brought computing mainstream. The primary difference between Gates and Jobs is that Gates was in the business to dominate and drive profitability - which is why he very comparable to the Industrial Age commercial business barons like Morgan and Carnegie. It was only after his wealth was established that he became a philanthropist - again much like those that went before him as captains of industry. Jobs on the other hand is looking to establish a legacy - one that will last long after he departs for more celestial projects perhaps. That is the foundation of what drives his vision and his success, especially after having gained experience via NeXT and Pixar. He is not only building one of the finest sets of engineering teams to ever collaborate on a multitude of technologies, but also one of the finest executive and financial business teams as well. He wants Apple to succeed long into the future - which is why he came back to run Apple. And why he says things like "I love Apple". Its his legacy and he has been very strategic in who he has in key positions and making sure that everyone is on-board with the vision.
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post #53 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by fecklesstechguy View Post

... Jobs on the other hand is looking to establish a legacy - one that will last long after he departs for more celestial projects perhaps.

"Celestial projects..." like Dr. S. R. Hadden's perhaps:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0118884/quotes?qt0379356
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post #54 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Ok but you have to admit Apple are always conservative or have been in the past. It is staggering to see Apple that bullish after all these years. Exciting too... if a little scary

Exactly. And I suspect they are being equally conservative this time around. That fact that they are announcing that they are expecting spectacular growth probably means they expect things to be even better than that.
post #55 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by fecklesstechguy View Post

You have companies like General Electric that have successfully diversified their products and evolved from their more humble beginnings - are you claiming that companies can't do that anymore? Hasn't Apple evolved from a desktop computer company into a mobile devices company that does desktops, mp3 media devices and content delivery boxes as well as software?

I'm not sure GE is the model you'd want Apple to emulate. GE is in businesses as diverse as banking and jet engines, products and services that don't relate to each other at all. This diversification was the vision of former CEO Jack Welsh, and it's notable that the company has not performed nearly as well with this haphazard portfolio of business since his departure, and also that they're currently divesting themselves of some of this miscellaneous baggage. Apple's strength over the last ten years has been its focus on building, inventing, and expanding its core business, none of which has required a GE-like expansion into unrelated products and services, or any major acquisitions for that matter. I like Apple's model for growth much better.
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