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Production of Apple's iPad 2 to begin in February, iPhone 5 in May - report - Page 2

post #41 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

I'm with you. For the iPad2 I expect a February announcement with shipping in March. I think towards the end of this month could have been the iPad2 announcement alongside the new publication app mechanism.

But Steve's leave of absence... I'm sure things are going to be delayed somewhat.

I have been expecting a March announcement and late March/early April delivery for the new iPad. I guess they could do a late February announcement.

One thing to consider is that the Chinese New Year starts on Feb 3 which means nothing gets manufactured or shipped for two weeks. Even if the production lines are ready to produce at anything resembling mass production runs, there will be a delay to build inventory for the launch. I am guessing that they would need a minimum of 500,000 units at launch which, at a build rate of 25k/day, would take 20 days. In truth, I think they will require a larger number at launch - probably 800-900k.

I don't think that Steve's absence is likely to affect the launch. If he is well enough, he will do the presentation; if not, Apple will take the opportunity to showcase their other executive leadership.
post #42 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Too true. Apple is going to run out of manufacturing partners in China if they start punishing them for not preventing all leaks, which is impossible anyway. I remember how furious Apple was years ago when one of the video card manufacturers (IIRC, nvidea) accidentally publicized one of their new cards for the Mac before Steve got to speak the words at a MacWorld keynote. That company paid a steep price for their slip by not getting any business from Apple for some time afterwards.

Not possible with the Chinese. That's one of the downsides of off-shoring manufacturing, especially to a country where workers are paid so little and often treated like cattle. If China truly is the future, I worry about the future. I didn't want to change the subject of this thread, but it's probably too late now.

Apple's future in China is bright, with hundreds of Apple stores and hundreds of millions of people lining up for Apple products.
post #43 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

China is more to the West. Unless you want to pretend that the world is still flat.

It's amazing how realities we have. Japan, or rather Nippon, translates to origin of the Sun or land of the rising Sun, as I understand it. Even their flag denotes the red Sun which (under normal atmospheric conditions) only appears red near the horizon when the only the long wavelength of 630-740nm can penetrate. Yet, on maps they sensibly place themselves in the center.

We also seem to take issue with the term Oriental. At least in the US we do. Yet that term originated just as Nippon did with the rising sun the first obvious daytime sign as to "which way is which". Somehow we can still use the term orientation and orient to refer to direction of various sorts without offending.

What's next, you have to be from the Indus River and Hindu to be considered Indian?
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post #44 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter236 View Post

Apple's future in China is bright, with hundreds of Apple stores and hundreds of millions of people lining up for Apple products.

I think Apple can reach $1000 by 2013 because of China, as well as all their other areas of business. Sans their iPod division which is clearly being cannibalized by the iPhone, they have a great chance to grow all areas all the world. I don't see any one area that is saturated with no chance for excellent growth potential. China is just the icing on the cake... albeit a lot of icing.
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post #45 of 62
Apple's launches of updates to major product lines are no longer able to fly under the radar. They literally have to ramp the production lines up well in advance in order to ensure sufficient supply at launch. There will literally be millions of units rolling off of the lines, passing through thousands of workers hands, and supported by millions of parts streaming into the assembly factory from suppliers worldwide. Thus, the days of complete surprise are long gone for iPad and iPhone updates.

These ramp-ups also take a lot of time, so if Apple has a hope of being the first to "spill the beans", they need to do the "reveal" earlier than one month in advance. Case(s) in point: iPhone 4, and iPad 2 (whose specs are fairly well known, most likely). Even if Apple revealed iPad 2 someday soon, I wouldn't expect many surprises, given available intel.

Thompson


Quote:
Originally Posted by Carmissimo View Post

If production kicks off in a few weeks, why an April launch and not March?

Being as the launch of the iPad was a rather drawn out affair taking months to unfold (the original announcement took place in January), I don't think that an April launch date is cast in stone.

Apple hates it when leaks blunt the wow factor that comes from unveiling a significant update. If you start building the new iPad in early February and wait for two months to launch the device, you have to know that the official announcement will be merely a formality with no significant PR value. On the other hand if you kick off production and then unveil the device let's say a month later, you have a chance to keep leaks from messing up the reveal. It also helps to prevent competition from being a month closer to catching up to you.

Perhaps I'm being naive. Maybe a month is not enough time to get production going in volumes adequate to meet initial demand. Yet it seems to me that volume production within a month of launching production seems like a reasonable goal. As long as you have enough units built within that month to not be regarded as having lied about it being available, if there is an initial delay for customers in the early stages, that's considered business as usual.

Then again, this is all based on a best-case scenario. If it turns out there is a production issue that surfaces in that first few weeks, no doubt Apple would hate to have it thought that a March or late February public unveiling was in the cards only to have that announcement delayed by several weeks to work out the problem. Better to have it thought that April was the target all along.
post #46 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post

Apple's launches of updates to major product lines are no longer able to fly under the radar. They literally have to ramp the production lines up well in advance in order to ensure sufficient supply at launch. There will literally be millions of units rolling off of the lines, passing through thousands of workers hands, and supported by millions of parts streaming into the assembly factory from suppliers worldwide. Thus, the days of complete surprise are long gone for iPad and iPhone updates.

These ramp-ups also take a lot of time, so if Apple has a hope of being the first to "spill the beans", they need to do the "reveal" earlier than one month in advance. Case(s) in point: iPhone 4, and iPad 2 (whose specs are fairly well known, most likely). Even if Apple revealed iPad 2 someday soon, I wouldn't expect many surprises, given available intel.

Thompson

Yeah - why not make the announcement the day production beings - or even announce that next week production will begin - and even start taking pre-orders - sure folks will have to wait a few weeks longer perhaps - but then you would have a better idea how many you will need and how much to ramp up production to get started.

As much as I like it when Steve says "available TODAY" - I wonder how much the theatrics actually translates into additional sales.

And even say - until we ramp up to full production we can only accept 25,000 pre-orders per day - or find some other clever way to make a limited supply something to be proud of rather than ashamed of.
post #47 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilgto64 View Post

Yeah - why not make the announcement the day production beings - or even announce that next week production will begin - and even start taking pre-orders - sure folks will have to wait a few weeks longer perhaps - but then you would have a better idea how many you will need and how much to ramp up production to get started.

The problem is the stalled sales of the current generation and its consequential hit to the current quarter's revenues.
post #48 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I think Apple can reach $1000 by 2013 because of China, as well as all their other areas of business. Sans their iPod division which is clearly being cannibalized by the iPhone, they have a great chance to grow all areas all the world. I don't see any one area that is saturated with no chance for excellent growth potential. China is just the icing on the cake... albeit a lot of icing.

First, let's see if China doesn't make it's own Chinese version of Apple like they did with Google. I think Africa is the future. China is still shooting itself in the foot with their currency policy. Inflation is creeping in to their market and once it's in it's hard to get out.
post #49 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdonisSMU View Post

First, let's see if China doesn't make it's own Chinese version of Apple like they did with Google. I think Africa is the future. China is still shooting itself in the foot with their currency policy. Inflation is creeping in to their market and once it's in it's hard to get out.

I’m extremely exhausted so I’ll be brief (for once). I’d argue there is a difference between an intangible service and a tangible product, especially one like Apple that is seen as a premium brand and status symbol. Combine that with the growing middle class and i think China is the next major frontier for Apple. I am sure Africa*, as a whole, will get their but it will take longer.


* Personally, I don’t like referring to the whole of Africa as a single market. Its culture, economy and politics are too diverse for that.
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post #50 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

"FAR EAST".... Jeezus... Just say China

Actually, "Commercial Times" is published in Taiwan(which use traditional chinese), not in China(simplified chinese).

It's owned by China Times Group, "China Times" is a Taiwanese Newspaper too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_Times
post #51 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by iLiver View Post

Unless it's white.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post

Right, but I was hoping for an early shipping date for sending iLiver to the Far East.

post #52 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by semaphore View Post

Actually, "Commercial Times" is published in Taiwan(which use traditional chinese), not in China(simplified chinese).

It's owned by China Times Group, "China Times" is a Taiwanese Newspaper too.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_Times

Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

It's amazing how realities we have. Japan, or rather Nippon, translates to origin of the Sun or land of the rising Sun, as I understand it. Even their flag denotes the red Sun which (under normal atmospheric conditions) only appears red near the horizon when the only the long wavelength of 630-740nm can penetrate. Yet, on maps they sensibly place themselves in the center.

We also seem to take issue with the term Oriental. At least in the US we do. Yet that term originated just as Nippon did with the rising sun the first obvious daytime sign as to "which way is which". Somehow we can still use the term orientation and orient to refer to direction of various sorts without offending.

What's next, you have to be from the Indus River and Hindu to be considered Indian?

Well, if the report is out of Taiwan then just say "...according to a report from Taiwan". Or just say Asia if the reports are from Taiwan/ Hong Kong/ China. Another common term now being used is "Greater China". Though it may have some Western ego-deflating connotations with the word "greater" being used (though of course Greater doesn't mean "better" in this case).
post #53 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

The big difference between the industrializing US and industrializing China is the political system. The world has rarely seen economic powers with totalitarian political systems, and when it has, the results have not been pretty. If China is the future, the future isn't necessarily altogether rosy. Just something to ponder.

Sometimes, it's pretty scary what the world has turned China into, and vice versa.
post #54 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post

Apple's launches of updates to major product lines are no longer able to fly under the radar. They literally have to ramp the production lines up well in advance in order to ensure sufficient supply at launch. There will literally be millions of units rolling off of the lines, passing through thousands of workers hands, and supported by millions of parts streaming into the assembly factory from suppliers worldwide. Thus, the days of complete surprise are long gone for iPad and iPhone updates.

These ramp-ups also take a lot of time, so if Apple has a hope of being the first to "spill the beans", they need to do the "reveal" earlier than one month in advance. Case(s) in point: iPhone 4, and iPad 2 (whose specs are fairly well known, most likely). Even if Apple revealed iPad 2 someday soon, I wouldn't expect many surprises, given available intel.

Thompson

The so-called leaks are suspect in source. I wonder how many are legitimately a case of someone going against his employer's wishes and how much the whole leak routine is part of a covert plan to maintain interest. Let's face it, Apple doesn't really suffer from such interest and while there is a general notion of what the next iPad will add, not all the details will be uncovered in advance.

I'll tell you what, though. It is highly suspicious that when it's crucial to maintain secrecy, it is maintained. When the original iPad was unveiled, details in advance were not plentiful. In fact, there was a lot of misdirection including claims at one point that when Apple did unveil a tablet, it would come with a 7" screen.

Sometimes products are released with the exact specs they are rumoured in advance to come with and other times the rumours are wrong, way wrong. It would be naive to imagine that Apple never manipulates the desire of assorted media to get the scoop. It's not really Machiavellian of Apple to exploit the process, just good business. Rumours (I'm Canadian so pardon my Us) = free PR. Apple could push harder to shut the leaks down or work the process to its advantage, which is what I suspect is happening.

No harm, no foul.
post #55 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carmissimo View Post

The so-called leaks are suspect in source. I wonder how many are legitimately a case of someone going against his employer's wishes and how much the whole leak routine is part of a covert plan to maintain interest. Let's face it, Apple doesn't really suffer from such interest and while there is a general notion of what the next iPad will add, not all the details will be uncovered in advance.

I'll tell you what, though. It is highly suspicious that when it's crucial to maintain secrecy, it is maintained. When the original iPad was unveiled, details in advance were not plentiful. In fact, there was a lot of misdirection including claims at one point that when Apple did unveil a tablet, it would come with a 7" screen.

Sometimes products are released with the exact specs they are rumoured in advance to come with and other times the rumours are wrong, way wrong. It would be naive to imagine that Apple never manipulates the desire of assorted media to get the scoop. It's not really Machiavellian of Apple to exploit the process, just good business. Rumours (I'm Canadian so pardon my Us) = free PR. Apple could push harder to shut the leaks down or work the process to its advantage, which is what I suspect is happening.

No harm, no foul.

Hey yeah - most folks talk about it like it is an all or nothing sort of thing. But just as the US Military took advantage of UFO sightings to hide some projects in plain sight - Apple may well on occasion inject just enough truth into the rumor mill to keep it churning - making it easier to maintain secrecy when it really matters - and to make everyone doubt even the most iron clad information until it is handed down officially.

By the same token - all the talk of "Apple" being furious about such things while maybe having a grain of truth - could just as easily be Jobs publicly appearing to be miffed - but privately laughing all the way to the bank.
post #56 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilgto64 View Post

Hey yeah - most folks talk about it like it is an all or nothing sort of thing. But just as the US Military took advantage of UFO sightings to hide some projects in plain sight - Apple may well on occasion inject just enough truth into the rumor mill to keep it churning - making it easier to maintain secrecy when it really matters - and to make everyone doubt even the most iron clad information until it is handed down officially.

By the same token - all the talk of "Apple" being furious about such things while maybe having a grain of truth - could just as easily be Jobs publicly appearing to be miffed - but privately laughing all the way to the bank.

I think it's a mixture of planted leaks and also some embarrassing slip-ups eg iPhone4 at bar.
post #57 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carmissimo View Post


I'll tell you what, though. It is highly suspicious that when it's crucial to maintain secrecy, it is maintained. When the original iPad was unveiled, details in advance were not plentiful. In fact, there was a lot of misdirection including claims at one point that when Apple did unveil a tablet, it would come with a 7" screen.

Prior to the original announcement they didnt have to ramp up production, that started after the announcement. This time they will announce a month or so before, and need to ramp up to all countries not already available.
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post #58 of 62
Well, Apple in 2011 is still a story of trying to keep up with the iPad1/2 and iPhone4/5 demand in all major countries. Let alone Verizon demand.

I'm tempted to get my paws on a MacBook Air 11" for kicks. COME ON BRING ON THE NEW MACBOOK PRO 15"

Isn't this the first time in a long time where there's no new product announcement from Apple in January? No, the Verizon iPhone does not count!
post #59 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

I think it's a mixture of planted leaks and also some embarrassing slip-ups eg iPhone4 at bar.

Can we really be sure that the bar incident was not orchestrated?

Consider who gained the most out of that entire affair.
post #60 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

Prior to the original announcement they didnt have to ramp up production, that started after the announcement. This time they will announce a month or so before, and need to ramp up to all countries not already available.

True and one reason for announcing a new device like the iPad so far in advance is that you have to get FCC approval for such a device and that's a public process.

Consider, though, just how many rumours connected to the iPad 2 that have already been floated, some of which are highly suspect. At one point, there was a rumour that the device would come to market in 2010. Supposedly the device would have a smaller screen, that one coming out after Jobs had publicly ridiculed the 7" form factor (something about having to file your fingertips). Most recently there was talk of a super-high-rez display that, while remotely possible, is nearly as unlikely as it being only a 7-incher.

Misinformation galore, all from sources supposedly in a position to offer up solid info. I'm not convinced, by the way, that April is when the device will be unveiled. I would consider March far more likely yet one could see the merit, for Apple, in making it seem that April is the target. Throw off the competition and ensure sales of the original iPad would remain robust right through to when the new unit was introduced. On the other hand, if the announcement does come in April, how many iPads do you think Apple would sell in the final week or two of March. The uncertainty regarding when the new iPad will be introduced is something that will be gone after this next intro. It's not going to be tough to imagine an annual refresh set for the same time each year, with this next intro tipping us off on when that will be exactly. But this time Apple can take advantage of the uncertainty to maintain sales.
post #61 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carmissimo View Post

Can we really be sure that the bar incident was not orchestrated?

Consider who gained the most out of that entire affair.

Gizmodo?
post #62 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Gizmodo?

Minus their being banned from every future Apple event for all time.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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