Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum
I have been thinking about this for a while.
I mostly agree that:
-- a 2x display ppi would be costly and have lower yield
-- bifurcating the line with a pro model is wrong, as they already have too many SKUs
Then, there is the unknown about the competition -- will MMI (or the others) have access to enough components and manufacturing capacity
to produce the millions of units to provide real
I have posted in other threads that Apple is in the catbird seat because of pre-buying components and reserving manufacturing facilities. Apple can milk the current iPad 1 for several months -- and release the iPad 2 when it make best sense from a profit, capability and delivery fulfillment perspective.
I think that is still true, as there really are no competitive offerings... just RSN.
Here's the thing that has been bugging me -- iPhone, and now the iPad (supposedly) will be refreshed on an annual basis.Would it be to Apple's advantage to refresh on different than a calendar cycle...
It may be more realistic to refresh for a competitive advantage or when there is a technological breakthrough (e.g. higher yields on 2x ppi screens).
Maybe, some times an 18 mo refresh makes sense -- other times, 6 months.
I've been giving a lot of thought to this, and depending on what area I'm thinking about, I come up with a different answer.
Basically though, I think Apple is stuck with a one year major refresh. It occurs to me that these devices are more like game consoles than "normal" computers, and I hope someone doesn't jump on my back for saying that without understanding what I mean by it. I'm not saying that they are game consoles, though they may be used that way. What I mean is that they benefit from being stable platforms for long enough to enable developers to get the benefit of a long life for their apps without having to rewrite them for a major new hardware release twice a year. One big reason for that is because they get no money for updates or upgrades.
If Apple is making big changes too often, we'll need OS updates, and then the platform will be almost as fragmented as Android. Game consoles are only upgraded every five years, and we haven't heard anything about the current generation, so it may be going to seven this time.
Of course, I'm certainly not suggesting that Apple go to multiyear upgrades. But once a year seems to be enough. The problem Apple has, is that their upgrade schedule for the iPhone and iPad is off the major Android upgrade cycle, and so Apple's products may seem to be somewhat outdated for a few months until their new products put them ahead again for a few months. That's due to Apple not releasing new products right before the holiday shopping season, except for iPod upgrades, which Apple considers their holiday gift item.
How many people would be happy if Apple came out with a new version just a few months after they bought theirs? If that happens once a year, that's not too bad, but every six months? I think that could be a problem.