Report details iPad 2 components, 5 million unit supply - Page 3

Originally Posted by dreamsburnred

No retina display? Disappointing. But oh well.

Originally Posted by djsherly

I just tested your assertion. I started a game, moved to another app and moved back to the game. Yes, it was in the same state in which I left it.

I power cycled the phone. The game was in the fast switch area and so I opened it. The game started anew.

What this tells me is the fast switch area is really just stack of the most recently used apps. It says nothing about their state. Unless I'm holding it wrong.

I question why the bar is there is in the first place. Why can't simple access the apps from the spring board? You still have to press the home button.

Originally Posted by lgutie20

What if they discontinued the wifi only iPad and the line up were like this?

$699 = 32GB Wifi + 3G (Cheaper than the current 32GB Wifi + 3G model)
$799 = 64GB Wifi + 3G (Cheaper than the current 64GB Wifi + 3G model)
$899 = 128GB Wifi + 3G (Only 70$ more than the most expensive iPad model)

Would you buy these iPads?

Originally Posted by lgutie20

Whatever they choose to price these at (this is just a question) would you guys not spend $899 for a 128GB iPad?
The current most expensive iPad is $829. Apple could totally sell a Wifi + 3G iPad with 128GB of flash storage for $899

Originally Posted by djsherly

I just tested your assertion. I started a game, moved to another app and moved back to the game. Yes, it was in the same state in which I left it.

I power cycled the phone. The game was in the fast switch area and so I opened it. The game started anew.

What this tells me is the fast switch area is really just stack of the most recently used apps. It says nothing about their state. Unless I'm holding it wrong.

I question why the bar is there is in the first place. Why can't simple access the apps from the spring board? You still have to press the home button.

Originally Posted by jmillermcp

No. I have no need for 3G on my iPad. My guess is Apple will have the iPad2 32GB WiFi model come in at $549 or even $499 and drop the 16GB model. If the iPhone releases are any indication of pricing, Apple won't eliminate the entry point but give more for the same price.

Originally Posted by lgutie20

For sure that 16 GB model has to go. It is the saddest excuse for an iPad ever.

Originally Posted by solipsism

I can see buying on HW specs if your also comparing price points AND the devices are using the same OS. As we’ve seen Android and WP7 have needed better HW specs just to do the same tasks. I think it was Wizard69 who stated Android 3.0 will finally have HW accelerated GUI. That’s a start, but when will Android 3.0 be released and how efficient will it be compared to mobile OSes that have had it for years.

Originally Posted by jmillermcp

Ouch, that's the one I have and I still have plenty of space on it. I love my iPad especially for streaming NetFlix and using GoodReader and EverNote.

Originally Posted by jmillermcp

Ouch, that's the one I have and I still have plenty of space on it. I love my iPad especially for streaming NetFlix and using GoodReader and EverNote.

Originally Posted by melgross

And by the way, as I'm talking about an app that uses WiFi, the iPhone 4 and the iPad have far faster WiFi transfer speeds than ANY other device so far. Even the 3GS is up there. This is the kind of information you can't see in the specs. So, many other devices use "n", but run at "a" speeds. Scroll down to where the chart is for WiFi speeds.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/4126/nokia-n8-review-/7

This is why those specs aren't always useful.

Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum

I have been thinking about this for a while.

I mostly agree that:

-- a 2x display ppi would be costly and have lower yield
-- bifurcating the line with a pro model is wrong, as they already have too many SKUs

Then, there is the unknown about the competition -- will MMI (or the others) have access to enough components and manufacturing capacity to produce the millions of units to provide real competition?

I have posted in other threads that Apple is in the catbird seat because of pre-buying components and reserving manufacturing facilities. Apple can milk the current iPad 1 for several months -- and release the iPad 2 when it make best sense from a profit, capability and delivery fulfillment perspective.

I think that is still true, as there really are no competitive offerings... just RSN.


Here's the thing that has been bugging me -- iPhone, and now the iPad (supposedly) will be refreshed on an annual basis.

Would it be to Apple's advantage to refresh on different than a calendar cycle...

It may be more realistic to refresh for a competitive advantage or when there is a technological breakthrough (e.g. higher yields on 2x ppi screens).

Maybe, some times an 18 mo refresh makes sense -- other times, 6 months.

I wonder...

Originally Posted by lgutie20

Sorry about that, I should be more thoughtful with what I post.

It is looking like it has always taken Apple to[sic] years to double their flash on iOS devices. Who knows what will happen.

Originally Posted by Apple ][

I'd say that anybody who seriously believed those "retina" display rumors are totally naive and gullible people. I'd love for it to be true, but it just isn't realistic, not at this time. Get real. Learn to distinguish between fantasy and reality.

I've been following Apple product releases for many years now, and it's not hard to notice certain trends after a while. When the iPad2 comes out, it will have some new good features and it will obviously be a considerable improvement over the iPad1 and it will sell well.

No matter which new features or how many new features are included in iPad2, a few whiners will still be there to whine about it not including a certain feature that the whiner finds particularly important to their egocentric needs.

The same exact thing will happen when the iPad3 and iPad4 come out and so on. As for me, I'm definitely getting an iPad2 as soon as they come out.

Originally Posted by solipsism

Two years? That seems about right. We cant have a doubling/shrinking every year. I even wonder if well get more than 64GB this year or if the next jump will be to 128GB. They use 2 flash chips in the iPad. There is no reason they have to use two same capacity chips or even two chips.

Heres a scenario: Samsung uses new process (announced last year) to move from 45nm to 20nm NAND chips. However, this new process is not without its issues and faster, more reliable, and cheaper per GB are 32GB modules instead of 64GB modules of the same size die. This situation inevitably leads to Samsung being able to produce enough 32GB 20nm NAND flash chips for Apples needs. As a result they use 3x 20nm NAND chips in their next iPad, which still only using about 75% of the space of the current 2x45nm chip system. This results in 24GB (3x8GB), 48GB (3x16GB), and 96GB (3x32GB) iPads.

Originally Posted by lgutie20

Sorry about that, I should be more thoughtful with what I post.

It is looking like it has always taken Apple two years to double their flash on iOS devices. Who knows what will happen.

I just really want more storage. I'm a filmmaker and since I own a lot of movies I just can't fit them all in 64GBs. Its pretty much 1GB per film, if not more.

But seriously! These things are supposed to be slowly but surely replacing PCs! That is how I think about these things. They have many more benefits than PCs do! And the 3G is the most freeing element because you can use it anywhere with the advantage that no one has to buy a little internet connector because it is already built in.

Who knows what tablets will mean for people in a couple of years. When I go to an Apple Store, people are using these things more than they are using the laptops but Apple needs to make sure people stop looking at it as an expensive toy and instead as a very productive tool that is also an amazing toy!

Originally Posted by melgross

I've been giving a lot of thought to this, and depending on what area I'm thinking about, I come up with a different answer.

Basically though, I think Apple is stuck with a one year major refresh. It occurs to me that these devices are more like game consoles than "normal" computers, and I hope someone doesn't jump on my back for saying that without understanding what I mean by it. I'm not saying that they are game consoles, though they may be used that way. What I mean is that they benefit from being stable platforms for long enough to enable developers to get the benefit of a long life for their apps without having to rewrite them for a major new hardware release twice a year. One big reason for that is because they get no money for updates or upgrades.

If Apple is making big changes too often, we'll need OS updates, and then the platform will be almost as fragmented as Android. Game consoles are only upgraded every five years, and we haven't heard anything about the current generation, so it may be going to seven this time.

Of course, I'm certainly not suggesting that Apple go to multiyear upgrades. But once a year seems to be enough. The problem Apple has, is that their upgrade schedule for the iPhone and iPad is off the major Android upgrade cycle, and so Apple's products may seem to be somewhat outdated for a few months until their new products put them ahead again for a few months. That's due to Apple not releasing new products right before the holiday shopping season, except for iPod upgrades, which Apple considers their holiday gift item.

How many people would be happy if Apple came out with a new version just a few months after they bought theirs? If that happens once a year, that's not too bad, but every six months? I think that could be a problem.

Originally Posted by solipsism

Oh, Ive been posted those AnandTechs smartphone WiFi comparisons for a few month as a rebuttal to those that say HW specs mean everything to performance. I was using an older review that didnt have some of the newer Android devices with updated firmeware. Some are looking pretty good compared to just a few months ago. I wonder how The Dell Streak is doing these days? lol

Originally Posted by solipsism

Taking the holiday quarter sales, increasing the number by 30% for a new product launch, then average the unit sales per day and dividing by 4.5 and 5 million units tells me that the next iPad will launch 42 to 47 days before the end of the quarter.

7.33M x 1.3 = 9.53M ÷ 90 = 105.9k (per day)
4.5M ÷ 105.9 = 42 days = February 18th, 2011 ±n-date*
5M ÷ 105.9 = 47 days = February 13th, 2011 ±n-date* * Where n equals the number of days before or after the last day of March where Apples Q2-2011 officially ends.

Originally Posted by melgross

I've been giving a lot of thought to this, and depending on what area I'm thinking about, I come up with a different answer.

Basically though, I think Apple is stuck with a one year major refresh. It occurs to me that these devices are more like game consoles than "normal" computers, and I hope someone doesn't jump on my back for saying that without understanding what I mean by it. I'm not saying that they are game consoles, though they may be used that way. What I mean is that they benefit from being stable platforms for long enough to enable developers to get the benefit of a long life for their apps without having to rewrite them for a major new hardware release twice a year. One big reason for that is because they get no money for updates or upgrades.

If Apple is making big changes too often, we'll need OS updates, and then the platform will be almost as fragmented as Android. Game consoles are only upgraded every five years, and we haven't heard anything about the current generation, so it may be going to seven this time.

Of course, I'm certainly not suggesting that Apple go to multiyear upgrades. But once a year seems to be enough. The problem Apple has, is that their upgrade schedule for the iPhone and iPad is off the major Android upgrade cycle, and so Apple's products may seem to be somewhat outdated for a few months until their new products put them ahead again for a few months. That's due to Apple not releasing new products right before the holiday shopping season, except for iPod upgrades, which Apple considers their holiday gift item.

How many people would be happy if Apple came out with a new version just a few months after they bought theirs? If that happens once a year, that's not too bad, but every six months? I think that could be a problem.

Originally Posted by melgross

It seems as though most people are not trying to track memory prices. Both RAM and flash memory has seen pretty steady pricing over the past 18 months or so. While the most expensive parts have come down a lot in price for RAM, the lower density parts have not. Indeed, they went way up for some time.

As far as flash goes, the price of fast, dense memory is still very expensive. You can look to fast SD and Compact Flash cards for cameras. While slow memory is pretty cheap, fast dense memory is very expensive. Look at the prices for SSD's. They came down a lot, and then stopped dropping. I bought a 60 Gb drive from OWc for $134 on sale. Reg. Price is $150. The 120 GB version is $240. The 240 GB drive is $480, and the 480 GB version is a whopping $1,580! They tell me the price of that fast dense flash is still VERY expensive.

So what do you expect Apple to do?

Originally Posted by nvidia2008

Keeping yer brain active, I see.

Well, my analog cranium says mid-Feb announcement for a mid-March launch. Remember this is a new product launch so the 5 million iPad2s will be the opening salvo, meaning they need to stock up massively on it. For example, if there is a mid-March launch in 10 countries, that 5 million will pretty much be gone by the end of March.

Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum

Sigh...

very good points, all!

I am going to take your last paragraph and rephrase it for a specific situation:


What would happen if Apple delayed the iPad2 until, say August 2011 (at the latest) with a a 2x ppi display and all the other goodies?

They could announce the iPad2 any time before July and offer the iPad1 models at reduced prices.

The developers would have more robust hardware (and iOS) to exploit and could offer for pay upgrades.

The consumer would have the option to buy now for less or wait and pay/get more.

If the iPad 2 did not obsolete the iPad 1 then this could benefit all.

I wan't that 2x ppi iPad 2 and I don't want to wait until April 2012.

Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum

Sigh...

very good points, all!

I am going to take your last paragraph and rephrase it for a specific situation:


What would happen if Apple delayed the iPad2 until, say, August 2011 (at the latest) with a a 2x ppi display and all the other goodies?

They could announce the iPad2 any time before July and offer the iPad1 models at reduced prices.

The developers would have more robust hardware (and iOS) to exploit and could offer for pay upgrades.

The consumer would have the option to buy now for less or wait and pay/get more.

If the iPad 2 did not obsolete the iPad 1 then this could benefit all.

I want that 2x ppi iPad n and I don't want to wait until April 2012.

Originally Posted by lgutie20

But you have to know that Apple doesn't buy the Flash at those prices. I've read that it costs them $25 for 16GB. They buy in bulk plus they are "the number one flash storage users" so they must get discounts for that.

Originally Posted by melgross

The Streak Struck Out.

Originally Posted by lgutie20

But you have to know that Apple doesn't buy the Flash at those prices. I've read that it costs them $25 for 16GB. They buy in bulk plus they are "the number one flash storage users" so they must get discounts for that.

Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum



I think the technical term is it "crept in, crapped, then crept out"

Originally Posted by melgross

That's a tough one! With all the new tablets coming out in the spring to early summer, I don't know if Apple could wait that long. I was hoping that they would release the iPad 2 a month or two early. Then that would give them a headstart, and next year, they would be a month after the holidays. But, if they released a month, or so early next year, it could be available in December some time. That wouldn't knock things out of kilter for them.

It seemed possible, because the tablet was delayed for a month last year because of production ramp-up problems due to higher than expected demand. It was thought that Apple wouldn't have this problem this year, and so the tablet would be available in early March. It still may be! I think Apple could get away with shortening the delivery time a month or two for a couple of years to align their releases. but they may NOT want to do that. This timing may be deliberate.

It certainly possible that the Rez of the screen will hold up for another year. Apple thinks in longer terms than most other manufacturers. There is a good article about that which I just though of. If I have the time I'll post it here. It's about Apple and Jobs's philosophy. Very interesting.

If Apple doesn't think that this screen, abet improved, won't hurt sales to any serious degree, they will be willing to wait until the QC and price is where they need it. It's thought that some, if not most of that recent $3.9 billion they gave for machinery and tooling is for displays for iOS devices. It could be for these screens specifically. Samsung is ahem, coincidentally building a 3.4 Billion dollar factory to produce screens here, in the USA. Thoughts are that it may be for Apple. True? Maybe.

Originally Posted by melgross

Well guys. I just had to break this up with something completely different. This is something that Apple should have thought of! A bit out of their field, but...

http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=cuIJRsAuCHQ

Originally Posted by melgross

Well guys. I just had to break this up with something completely different. This is something that Apple should have thought of! A bit out of their field, but...

http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=cuIJRsAuCHQ

Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum

Interesting perspective:




http://www.businessinsider.com/chart...eat-the-ipad-3

Originally Posted by melgross

Well guys. I just had to break this up with something completely different. This is something that Apple should have thought of! A bit out of their field, but...

http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=cuIJRsAuCHQ

Originally Posted by Charel

Another thing that does bother me is the stupid rear camera. How efficient can it be to take a picture with a device that is almost ten inches tall? It is too big to be taking pictures with! If they do add this rear facing camera it is pure competition pressure.

Originally Posted by Realistic

I don't understand your logic at all. The iPad and iPhone are products designed for different markets and neither truly replaces the other.

Originally Posted by solipsism

I have never found FAS to be convenient. I have pretty much every app on my home screen, expect for my 2nd page for new apps Im still debating on keeping. I prefer the multi-touch swipes found in the 4.3 betas. It does the same thing as FAS, it cycles through your apps as they were last used without having to first double-tap the Home Button and then choose an app.

Originally Posted by lgutie20

Another thing that does bother me is the stupid rear camera. How efficient can it be to take a picture with a device that is almost ten inches tall? It is too big to be taking pictures with! If they do add this rear facing camera it is pure competition pressure.