Originally Posted by amicablealligator
Here are some of my thoughts:
Within 2 years, the Android tablet userbase will surpass iOS's. And with the larger user-base, Android will draw in an increasing number of (iOS) developers.
Once everything is stabilized, Android will own the majority of the smartphone AND tablet space. But iOS will continue to serve its loyal fanbase with a very sharp and purposeful UX for its products.
When you say "Android will own," are you talking about Google? Because Google doesn't own Android, it gives it away. It "shepherds" Android (in their words).
Before Android, did JavaME "own" smartphones? How about Flash Lite, did it "own" phones in some sense just because most vendors were licensing both as platforms?
Android is getting anthropomorphized to create an antagonist to battle Apple, but there is no Android licensee that is anywhere near Apple. The closest is Samsung, but its posting poor profits and can't sell the Tab even in minor amounts at Christmas (vs Apple's first quarter of iPad in the spring!)
It makes a ton of Android models worldwide, but its not beating Apple in any sense, and its doing the same "no updates" thing as all the other Android licensees. Samsung probably makes some of the best Android phones, but they're still no iPhone.
How about Motorola/Sony Ericcsson? Ha, no they are literally dying on the vine.
How about HTC? First major Android pusher, was jumping ship from WinMob. Doing okay, growing fast, but still no Apple contender. Can't ship a tablet anyone wants. There's also LG and all the big Chinese hardware cloners who are making the vast majority of Android phones, which aren't shipping outside of the Far East.
How exactly are these bottom feeders going to revolutionize the market? By dumping lots of Chinese phones on the other side of the globe? That's what they all were already doing with Linux (including Motorola). Shipped a lot of phones. Didn't do anything to make Linux popular here. Were just closed phones with GPL software so the Chinese didn't have to write their own.
Google is getting vast amounts of press for doing what Apple did last year or two years ago. Their vision for the future is geeky stuff not far removed from Zune. How well did that work out? Android is just the next PlaysForSure: third rate hardware makers trying to stretch a ho-hum software platform and work with a bunch of different stores. How'd that work out?