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Over 60% of Apple's first-wave iPad 2 production to be 3G models

post #1 of 56
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The majority of Apple's second-generation iPad models now being built will include either GSM/UMTS or CDMA 3G support, according to checks of overseas manufacturers, suggesting the company plans on forging stronger relationships with wireless carriers alongside the device's introduction.

After briefing AppleInsider exclusively last month on the components expected to find their way into the new iPads, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of Concord Securities has provide additional details on the five million unit supply Apple is reportedly amassing prior to its launch in the coming months.

As previously reported, Apple is expected to offer its second-gen iPad in three versions: a WiFi only model, a GSM/UMTS version for AT&T and most other carriers globally, and a CDMA/EVDO model for Verizon (and possibly other CDMA carriers in the future). The naming convention for these three models is said to be K93, K94 and K95, respectively. For comparison, the Verizon iPhone 4 shipping this month is codenamed N92.

In speaking to AppleInsider, Kuo said his checks in the Far East indicate production figures of 38 percent for the K93 WiFi model, 46 percent of the K46 3G model, and 16 percent for the Verizon-compatible K95 CDMA version. This indicates that Apple apparently expects most iPad 2 users will opt for 3G models, even on Verizon where new iPhone buyers have the option to pay $20 for hotspot service through their new smartphone.

Verizon's existing iPad data plans offer 1GB for $20 per month and $20/GB after that, or $35 for 3GB, $50 for 5GB and $80 for 10GB, each with $10/GB overage charges. The $20 tethering plan via iPhone 4 provides 2GB, a considerably better deal.

While Apple has never provided much color on its sales mix of WiFi versus 3G iPad models, it did as recently as last month say that the average selling price (ASP) of all iPads it shipped during the fourth calendar quarter of 2010 came out to roughly $600. With the cheapest 3G iPad retailing for $629, Apple would presumably have had to see the mix weighted heavily towards the the 16GB $499 WiFi model and 16GB $629 3G model for sales of 3G models to outweigh WiFi ones given that ASP.



Still, this isn't the first time that sources close to Apple's manufacturing partners have indicated that sales of 3G iPads are now outpacing WiFi models. The widely cited Taiwanese DigiTimes recently reported that 60 to 65% of all iPads Apple was shipping around the December timeframe were 3G models.

The publication went on to similarly predict that consumers were beginning to prefer models that are able to remain connected to the Internet at all times, adding that Apple was "aiming to work even more closely with telecom carriers by offering more wireless solutions for iPad 2 to satisfy market demand."

That same report estimated that Apple would ship 40 million second-generation iPad units in 2011, representing between 65% and 75% of the global tablet PC market.
post #2 of 56
Please announce this February 14th so that I may budget my income tax refund accordingly.
post #3 of 56
Seeing a lot of 'free' iPad offers through legitimate channels these last few days, mostly a draw/competition with purchase of other goods. Looks like Apple clearing out inventory and boosting awareness for iPad 2 which I'm guessing will arrive late March/early April.
post #4 of 56
iPad 2. April 2011.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #5 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by iLiver View Post

Please announce this February 14th so that I may budget my income tax refund accordingly.

I hope they don't also screw over Canada (again!) this time by making us wait three extra months also.
post #6 of 56
Um, there will be more GSM units than CDMA units because from day 1, the iPad 2 will be sold in GSM countries like UK, France, Germany, and Japan, and not just in the US.
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post #7 of 56
Here's hoping the wifi version gets GPS.

Right now I'm leaning toward staying with a wifi only iPad 2. Especially if AT&T allows the hotspot feature.
If I do get a 3G iPad 2 it will be for the GPS chip (along with the added benefit of 3G possibilities.)
post #8 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vatdoro View Post

Here's hoping the wifi version gets GPS.

Right now I'm leaning toward staying with a wifi only iPad 2. Especially if AT&T allows the hotspot feature.
If I do get a 3G iPad 2 it will be for the GPS chip (along with the added benefit of 3G possibilities.)

Same here - jailbroken iPhone 4 allows me to tether all I want when I happen to be out of range of a wifi network feel so bad for the AT&T/Verizon people that will be paying for it on a month to month basis. \
post #9 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

I hope they don't also screw over Canada (again!) this time by making us wait three extra months also.

I think it was a legitimate underestimation last year, which shouldn't be (as big?) a problem this year.

Here's hoping
post #10 of 56
In the end though I will have to see iPad 2 and the new rates for WiFi tethering from AT&T to make a decision. There is some advantage to having just one account for 3G access, but corresponding negative also.

As to the Ipad2's launch that could come at any time, I'm even thinking this month. They will not have enough models available to meet demand no matter what they do, if half the rumors are correct. If they are all correct they will never meet demand.
post #11 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vatdoro View Post

Here's hoping the wifi version gets GPS.... If I do get a 3G iPad 2 it will be for the GPS chip.

I think you've nailed it on the head here... Likely, Apple is selling more 3G models than WiFi, since the majority of people looking for this kind of a device want an 'all-in-one' solution. The 3G model, with it's built-in aGPS and the possibility of using cellular data without a contract, offers just that.
post #12 of 56
I was planning on getting a wifi only iPad2. I thought if I were out of wifi range...I can always use my iPhone 4. It just rubs me the wrong way to give ATT another $15-$30/month...(even though there is no contract.)

PS. Just a little thing...I didn't like the black plastic piece on the back of the 3G models. We'll see what the iPad 2 looks like though.
post #13 of 56
How odd. The iPhone gets Personal Hotspot tethering, and at the same time more iPads with 3G are being produced. What gives?
post #14 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by bcode View Post

I think you've nailed it on the head here... Likely, Apple is selling more 3G models than WiFi, since the majority of people looking for this kind of a device want an 'all-in-one' solution. The 3G model, with it's built-in aGPS and the possibility of using cellular data without a contract, offers just that.

I have the 3G model, however I have only used the cellular feature a couple times when I first got it. Now I almost always have wifi available, yet my contract keeps renewing automatically. I could stop it obviously but, if I need it, I have to go through the hassle of setting it up again. AT&T is definitely getting the better part of this deal, with me anyway.

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post #15 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

In the end though I will have to see iPad 2 and the new rates for WiFi tethering from AT&T to make a decision. There is some advantage to having just one account for 3G access, but corresponding negative also.

As to the Ipad2's launch that could come at any time, I'm even thinking this month. They will not have enough models available to meet demand no matter what they do, if half the rumors are correct. If they are all correct they will never meet demand.

Good points... But I think they will meet demand eventually. It may take awhile though.

Even though China is now the second largest economy and has been growing at ~10% a year on average for the last 30 years or so, half their population still lives in poverty. They are still building at a rate that equates to a city the size of San Francisco "every day!"

While we're all "selling insurance" to each other here in the US...they will be all assembling iPad 2's, high speed trains, stealth fighters, an aircraft carrier or two and the fastest super computer in the world!

Best
post #16 of 56
I know you guys have to pay the rent but taking ads from Motorola to spout their anti Apple drivel is a bit much.
post #17 of 56
Hmm. I passed on the iPad, thinking I would wait until the version 2 to get one. I'll definitely be getting the WiFi-Only one, as there's nowhere I ever am that doesn't have WiFi. Well, hardly, anyways.

But that makes me wonder: WiFi is so ubiquitous these days, do they really think that there will be that much demand for the 3G iPad? Or am I missing something here?
post #18 of 56
Quote:
Verizon's existing iPad data plans offer 1GB for $20 per month and $20/GB after that, or $35 for 3GB, $50 for 5GB and $80 for 10GB, each with $10/GB overage charges. The $20 tethering plan via iPhone 4 provides 2GB, a considerably better deal.

Ridiculously, unnecessarily complicated set of options.
post #19 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDoppio View Post

How odd. The iPhone gets Personal Hotspot tethering, and at the same time more iPads with 3G are being produced. What gives?

The 3G models are still useful for people who do not have a phone capable of tethering. There are a lot of people like that.
post #20 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rattyuk View Post

I know you guys have to pay the rent but taking ads from Motorola to spout their anti Apple drivel is a bit much.

Be happy. Whatever Motorola paid for the ads on AI is probably almost a complete waste of their money.
post #21 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

I was planning on getting a wifi only iPad2. I thought if I were out of wifi range...I can always use my iPhone 4. It just rubs me the wrong way to give ATT another $15-$30/month...(even though there is no contract.)

PS. Just a little thing...I didn't like the black plastic piece on the back of the 3G models. We'll see what the iPad 2 looks like though.

I'm going to get the 3G model to replace my wifi model. My thought is that since it's purely month to month, why not? Plus on resale, the value of the 3G pretty much conveys with little depreciation.
post #22 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

Good points... But I think they will meet demand eventually. It may take awhile though.

Even though China is now the second largest economy and has been growing at ~10% a year on average for the last 30 years or so, half their population still lives in poverty. They are still building at a rate that equates to a city the size of San Francisco "every day!"

While we're all "selling insurance" to each other here in the US...they will be all assembling iPad 2's, high speed trains, stealth fighters, an aircraft carrier or two and the fastest super computer in the world!

Best

Just FYI, the USA still does have the largest manufacturing sector in the world. Don't just skim the headlines and assume that China has won already.
post #23 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by bcode View Post

I think you've nailed it on the head here... Likely, Apple is selling more 3G models than WiFi, since the majority of people looking for this kind of a device want an 'all-in-one' solution. The 3G model, with it's built-in aGPS and the possibility of using cellular data without a contract, offers just that.

I got the 3G because I knew I would need it at least a few times a year. I just cancel my data plan before the end of my month, restart it next time I need it. It's been more than worth having it for the extra cost of the 3G, used it for 3 months total (more like 5-6 weeks actual 3G usage) since getting it on release day. However, I would never have bought the 3G if it required a contract.
post #24 of 56
I bet the carriers will offer subsidized prices for new contracts.

GSM-3G is more popular worlwide (and in US) and is faster than the CDMA one.
post #25 of 56
>>>iPads it shipped during the fourth calendar quarter of 2010 came out to roughly $600. With the cheapest 3G iPad retailing for $629, Apple would presumably have had to see the mix weighted heavily towards the the 16GB $499 WiFi model and 16GB $629 3G model for sales of 3G models to outweigh WiFi ones given that ASP.

I see faulty logic here. You are neglecting 32GB and 64GB models. So, I don't think you can just state that because the average price of an iPad is $600, that most users are opting for the 3G models. They could be opting for more storage.
post #26 of 56
>>>But that makes me wonder: WiFi is so ubiquitous these days, do they really think that there will be that much demand for the 3G iPad? Or am I missing something here?


Yeah, because so many wifi spots are locked down.
post #27 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Just FYI, the USA still does have the largest manufacturing sector in the world. Don't just skim the headlines and assume that China has won already.

A bit dismissive....And correct! Not many people know that. Mainly because most "skim headlines!"

However, you don't get these sort of facts I've mentioned by just "skimming headlines"....Yes, we are still the largest manufacturer but by this time next year we won't be. I think you have taken my comments as "alarmist" which was not my intention. I just want to show if there is any country that is capable of "ramping up" the manufacturing of iPads and iPhones, it's China! I was simply backing up my position with facts.

America still has 18 out of the top 20 universities and 38 out of the top 50. More Patents, and more Noble Prizes come from the USA.

However, the largest car market in the world will be china in the next couple of years or so, if it isn't already.

2020-2025 China will have the largest economy.

Best
post #28 of 56
well, All I know is that I'm part of the 2nd wave of iPad purchases.... and GSM ready....
sadly my Unibody MacBook Pro 13" is being regifted;-)... also, I'm about ready to be 1099 again, HELLO BUSINESS EXPENSE [at my rates, the gov't buys about 46% of the device;-)]

tOG
post #29 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

A bit dismissive....And correct! Not many people know that. Mainly because most "skim headlines!"

However, you don't get these sort of facts I've mentioned by just "skimming headlines"....Yes, we are still the largest manufacturer but by this time next year we won't be. I think you have taken my comments as "alarmist" which was not my intention. I just want to show if there is any country that is capable of "ramping up" the manufacturing of iPads and iPhones, it's China! I was simply backing up my position with facts.

America still has 18 out of the top 20 universities and 38 out of the top 50. More Patents, and more Noble Prizes come from the USA.

However, the largest car market in the world will be china in the next couple of years or so, if it isn't already.

2020-2025 China will have the largest economy.

Best

Out of pure curiosity, where is the info about the universities coming from and what are the criteria?
post #30 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by joelsalt View Post

Out of pure curiosity, where is the info about the universities coming from and what are the criteria?

Hi Joel, Fareed Zakaria stated it on his GPS program on CNN a few weeks ago. Sorry, I don't know the exact criteria it was based on.
post #31 of 56
Wrong assumption.

It means expanded growth through subsidized contracts with Telcos. No more, no less.

The demand for a WiFi only model isn't going down. They are just expanding their channels.
post #32 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by justbobf View Post

>>>iPads it shipped during the fourth calendar quarter of 2010 came out to roughly $600. With the cheapest 3G iPad retailing for $629, Apple would presumably have had to see the mix weighted heavily towards the the 16GB $499 WiFi model and 16GB $629 3G model for sales of 3G models to outweigh WiFi ones given that ASP.

I see faulty logic here. You are neglecting 32GB and 64GB models. So, I don't think you can just state that because the average price of an iPad is $600, that most users are opting for the 3G models. They could be opting for more storage.

You misread it. They're not saying that the ASP meant that most users are opting for 3G models. They're explaining the only mix that would explain 3G models' volume lead over wifi only models. In order to get to an average price of $600, you either assume that many more wifi models sold than 3G models or that very few wifi iPads sold costing more than $500, and that almost all 3G models were 16 GB.

In my experience, there were few middle priced units sold. My clients who bought them tended to either buy the biggest and best (64 GB 3G) or the $499 model. So based on my experience here in DC, I don't see how the facts all can add up.
post #33 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

A bit dismissive....And correct! Not many people know that. Mainly because most "skim headlines!"

However, you don't get these sort of facts I've mentioned by just "skimming headlines"....Yes, we are still the largest manufacturer but by this time next year we won't be. I think you have taken my comments as "alarmist" which was not my intention. I just want to show if there is any country that is capable of "ramping up" the manufacturing of iPads and iPhones, it's China! I was simply backing up my position with facts.

America still has 18 out of the top 20 universities and 38 out of the top 50. More Patents, and more Noble Prizes come from the USA.

However, the largest car market in the world will be china in the next couple of years or so, if it isn't already.

2020-2025 China will have the largest economy.

Best

Most likely true. However, not all trends are inexorable. The same was said about Japan 25 years ago. Given the demographics, it does seem likely that China will overtake the USA. Thankfully, overall GDP is not important in the daily life of anyone. GDP per head, however, is far more important. For a long time after China overtakes the USA in overall GDP, the average person in the USA will have a far higher standard of living and income.
post #34 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

Wrong assumption.

It means expanded growth through subsidized contracts with Telcos. No more, no less.

The demand for a WiFi only model isn't going down. They are just expanding their channels.

Agreed. Although Id much rather use a personal hotspot and get the WiFi model myself! And I would expect most users NOT to want to pay for 3G data every month, making the WiFi model still the most popular by far. So Im skeptical of any 60% 3G production!
post #35 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Most likely true. However, not all trends are inexorable. The same was said about Japan 25 years ago. Given the demographics, it does seem likely that China will overtake the USA. Thankfully, overall GDP is not important in the daily life of anyone. GDP per head, however, is far more important. For a long time after China overtakes the USA in overall GDP, the average person in the USA will have a far higher standard of living and income.

Excellent point(s)! I do remember that being said about Japan. And you're right, a lot of China's accomplishments are blown out of proportion for a variety of reasons. They still do not have any "bases" around the world. Nor do they have a "blue-water" navy....Since July of last year their ownership of T-bills has dropped from 24% to 21%....they're investing the money in mines in Africa amongst other places. Smart!

America is still the "best" country in the world! After Thailand that is. Even the guys look like chicks! It's great!

Best
post #36 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

2020-2025 China will have the largest economy.

Yes, but how long before China has the same per capita income as the U.S.?
US: GDP/307million.
China: GDP/1.3 billion.

And then there's the whole communism vs. democracy thing....

Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

Excellent point(s)! I do remember that being said about Japan. And you're right, a lot of China's accomplishments are blown out of proportion for a variety of reasons.

America is still the "best" country in the world! After Thailand that is. Even the guys look like chicks! It's great!

100% in agreement with the above.

My apologies for going off on a tangent.

Waiting anxiously for the new iPad.
post #37 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by nagromme View Post

Agreed. Although Id much rather use a personal hotspot and get the WiFi model myself! And I would expect most users NOT to want to pay for 3G data every month, making the WiFi model still the most popular by far. So Im skeptical of any 60% 3G production!

I personally love my Wifi iPad. Sitting at a hotspot or my own wireless network around the house and yard is very relaxing while I read up on current events, non-hardbound books, etc.
post #38 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Most likely true. However, not all trends are inexorable. The same was said about Japan 25 years ago. Given the demographics, it does seem likely that China will overtake the USA. Thankfully, overall GDP is not important in the daily life of anyone. GDP per head, however, is far more important. For a long time after China overtakes the USA in overall GDP, the average person in the USA will have a far higher standard of living and income.

China's growth through artificially devaluing their currency is not sustainable. They will crash harder than Japan if they don't slowly ramp it back up.
post #39 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neruda View Post

Yes, but how long before China has the same per capita income as the U.S.?
US: GDP/307million.
China: GDP/1.3 billion.

And then there's the whole communism vs. democracy thing....



100% in agreement with the above.

My apologies for going off on a tangent.

Waiting anxiously for the new iPad.

Yep, exactly right. My point was that with all China's accomplishments...650 million people (half) are still living in poverty. That's a large relatively inexpensive labor pool in which to draw from to assemble iPads.

I guess I should be the one to appologize for going off on a tangent! I'm looking fwd to the iPad 2, too!

Best
post #40 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

China's growth through artificially devaluing their currency is not sustainable. They will crash harder than Japan if they don't slowly ramp it back up.

Good point...very well could happen. However, in the '80's they did raise it 20%. I think I have that right.

Source: Secretary Tim Geitner, Charlie Rose interview. (One before last one!)
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