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First week of Apple's Verizon iPhone sales predicted to top 1M

post #1 of 15
Thread Starter 
Despite the fact that the new Verizon iPhone 4 is essentially the same as the model that went on sale 8 months ago with rival carrier AT&T, Apple is still predicted to top a million sales of the highly anticipated handset in the first week.

Analyst Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets said in a note to investors on Wednesday that he believes Apple and Verizon will surpass 1 million phones sold in the first week. He also expects robust sales to continue, with between 3 million and 4 million handsets selling in the first quarter of availability.

Based on estimated pre-order demand and available inventory, Abramsky believes that Verizon, Apple and Best Buy retail stores may completely stock out in the first week on their way to 1 million units sold. He expects that Apple has between a million and 1.5 million in channel inventory for the launch.

And if Apple does manage to activate between 3 million and 4 million Verizon iPhones for the quarter, those numbers would lag behind the more than 5 million activations AT&T had in its first full quarter of iPhone 4 availability between July and September of 2010. The analyst said he believes the smaller number of activations will occur for a number of reasons:
The iPhone 4 at Verizon is new but not novel
Verizon has not offered the same aggressive early upgrade options as AT&T
AT&T's incentives, such as early upgrades, may have locked in potential customers
Verizon has many existing Android users under a two-year contract
At $30 per month, the only data plan available for Verizon iPhone 4 users is twice the cost of the $15 entry level data plan on AT&T
AT&T's first quarter of sales offered a longer window of 13 weeks; Verizon will only have 7 weeks of sales
Some buyers will delay their purchase and wait for the next-generation iPhone 5
For calendar year 2011, Abramsky sees between 9 million and 10 million Verizon iPhones being sold, though he cautioned the number could be conservative. Those sales figures assume smartphone penetration among Verizon's customer base will grow from 26 percent in 2010 to 40 percent in calendar year 2011.

The analyst also sees Apple surpassing Google Android's smartphone share on the Verizon network in 2011. He has forecast the iPhone to represent 40 percent of smartphone sales on Verizon, versus 37 percent for Android.

Worldwide, Abramsky believes Apple will sell 75 million iPhones in 2011, resulting in 58 percent year over year growth. At between 9 million and 10 million units, Verizon would account for between 12 percent and 13 percent of global iPhone sales in calendar 2011.

Following Apple's announcement of its record first fiscal quarter last month, RBC Capital Markets increased its 12-month price target for AAPL stock to $425, from $395. The investment firm believes Apple will reach $99 billion in revenue in its 2011 fiscal year, with a total of $23.30 earnings per share.
post #2 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Following Apple's announcement of its record first fiscal quarter last month, RBC Capital Markets increased its 12-month price target for AAPL stock to $425, from $395. The investment firm believes Apple will reach $99 billion in revenue in its 2011 fiscal year, with a total of $23.30 earnings pershare.[c][ View this article at AppleInsider.com ][/c]

Given the history of being very short, we can look for revenue of about $125 B and EPS ~ $27. At PE of 16 (it seems to be on the low side these days) = $432 + ~ $70/share cash = $502/share.
post #3 of 15
So is it these new customers that get the data throttling or every verizon customer?

I've heard conflicting information on this.
post #4 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmmx View Post

Given the history of being very short, we can look for revenue of about $125 B and EPS ~ $27. At PE of 16 (it seems to be on the low side these days) = $432 + ~ $70/share cash = $502/share.

I'll settle for that
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From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
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post #5 of 15
[QUOTE=AppleInsider;1804147]Despite the fact that the new Verizon iPhone 4 is essentially the same as the model that went on sale 8 months ago with rival carrier AT&T, Apple is still predicted to top a million sales of the highly anticipated handset in the first week.

Same model- perhaps still the most advanced phone Verizon will offer. Certainly will accelerate the adverse growth numbers for RIM phones, if not Andriod too.
post #6 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

So is it these new customers that get the data throttling or every verizon customer?

I've heard conflicting information on this.

its all customers that fall within the top 5% of usage who get throttled iirc
post #7 of 15
i wonder how much these 5% use??
any idea?
what is "excessive"
att has grandfathered me into an unlimited data, and 850min for price of 450
I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
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I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
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post #8 of 15
Amazing...especially since a new iPhone is 4 months away. Who knows what goodies are in that one.
post #9 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by NOFEER View Post

i wonder how much these 5% use??
any idea?
what is "excessive"
att has grandfathered me into an unlimited data, and 850min for price of 450


1 million phones in the first week? If supply is there they will do that by Sunday....Apple wants to put the screws to Android....who's biggest proponent is no iPhone on Verizon. This will be epic. I hate Verizon and I'm eagerly awaiting the sales stats after the weekend
post #10 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sleepy Dinosaur View Post

1 million phones in the first week? If supply is there they will do that by Sunday....Apple wants to put the screws to Android....who's biggest proponent is no iPhone on Verizon. This will be epic. I hate Verizon and I'm eagerly awaiting the sales stats after the weekend

Not so sure I agree, I think RIM is the biggest looser with the IP 4 arrival. Agree though that the stats should be quite telling
post #11 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

So is it these new customers that get the data throttling or every verizon customer?

I've heard conflicting information on this.

They haven't said they are definitely going to throttle. They just changed the terms to give them the right to do so. But they have said they are only looking at the biggest data users. So that will like be those with an unlimited plan. So mainly these new folks

Which brings up a issue to counter that checklist. Some folks that travel etc want unlimited data and don't mind the cost, especially when that 'half the price' plan isn't even 1GB. And Verizon has said it is a limited time offer. I'll stake money that when they get the iPhone 5, that plan is gone. So folks could be getting the 4 figuring the 5 will be like the iPhone 3G to 3GS (baby upgrade with no big new features) and they can argue that they signed a contract for unlimited so they better get to keep it or they will leave and legally can't be charged an ETF, so Verizon will let them keep it at least for the time being


Quote:
Originally Posted by NOFEER View Post

i wonder how much these 5% use??
any idea?
what is "excessive"

It is likely not one simple answer. It could flex depending on day or time or whether you added the hotspot feature. I would imagine if you never hit double digits you would be fine.

Quote:
att has grandfathered me into an unlimited data, and 850min for price of 450

Unless your ATT service is utter shite why would you even think about leaving with a deal like that

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sleepy Dinosaur View Post

1 million phones in the first week? If supply is there they will do that by Sunday

Depending on the source you look at, last weeks preorders were anywhere from 250k to 500k. I think the latter is likely a bit much but I could believe 100-200k

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

Reply
post #12 of 15
Those early upgrades from AT&T were a really good idea. Multiple benefits: customers are happy, helps to prevent Verizon switchers, and gets people synced with device refresh so they are not buying at the end of a cycle. Probably well worth the price AT&T paid to subsidize that.
post #13 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by ifail View Post

its all customers that fall within the top 5% of usage who get throttled iirc

I'm not sure that anyone gets throttled individually. Everyone gets throttled automatically as the tower divides up the bandwidth. Normally voice and small sized data get priorities over other data.
post #14 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by NOFEER View Post

i wonder how much these 5% use??
any idea?
what is "excessive"
att has grandfathered me into an unlimited data, and 850min for price of 450

I'm not sure "grandfathered" is the most appropriate term to refer to AT&T allowing users who had the unlimited plan to maintain it, at least not without qualifying the term. The difference is that AT&T can end the unlimited plan for any and all users whenever they want.

I doubt they'd do this for those in a contract as it would likely void the contract allowing the customer to jump ship without paying an ETF. I also don't think it's likely they'll end it now that Verizon has the iPhone, but that isn't my point. My point is that it's a more a marketing courtesy than a hardfast ruling, like the term usually implies.
post #15 of 15
If you have to caution that your estimate might prove conservative, but you don't have to caution that it might prove optimistic, you're doing it wrong.
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