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Arrival of Apple's iPhone on Verizon predicted to disrupt 1M Android sales

post #1 of 28
Thread Starter 
With Verizon the strongest carrier for the Google Android mobile operating system, the arrival of Apple's iPhone on the largest network in America is expected to displace around a million Android handset sales in the first quarter of availability.

Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said on Thursday that Verizon typically would have sold between 4 million and 5 million Android handsets this quarter if Apple's iPhone were not available. But he sees the arrival of the iPhone taking a chunk out of Android sales on Verizon, disrupting them by about a million.

The analyst sees Apple selling about 1.5 million iPhones on Verizon in the carrier's first fiscal quarter of 2011. The iPhone, which formally launched today, will only be available for a portion of the quarter.

On AT&T, where the iPhone was exclusive in the U.S. until today, Munster sees Apple selling 2.9 million units in the March 2011 quarter, a number which assumes Verizon sales will cannibalize 740,000 sales from its rival. AT&T also has the benefit of a full quarter of iPhone sales.

The arrival of the iPhone on Verizon is a key strategic move, Munster believes, as he estimates that the carrier accounts for roughly 20 percent of total Android users worldwide.

The sales forecast from Piper Jaffray would have Android continue to outsell the iPhone on Verizon in the carrier's first quarter. Munster said that he believes Android is garnering higher unit share than the iPhone due to a wider selection of phones, greater supply, and lower pricing.



But in his eyes, unit sales aren't as important as profitability, a measurement where Apple holds a considerable lead. The iPhone's share of smartphone profits was over 50 percent of the market in 2010, while Android was responsible for less than 25 percent, split among several device manufacturers.

Looking long term, the analyst sees Android and the iPhone controlling over half of the smartphone market by the fourth quarter of calendar 2012. And by 2015, he has forecast Android and Apple to control over 65 percent of the total smartphone market.
post #2 of 28
Why do people keep putting a complete HW product up against an OS. Why not say "iOS for iPhone + Android for smartphones”? That is what we’re talking about and that is more clear. I qualified with iPhone and smartphones because i don’t think they are including anything else.
post #3 of 28
just one million? And here you guys are talkin like the iphone is good or somethin...


post #4 of 28
"But in his eyes, unit sales aren't as important as profitability" No sh*t Sherlock!
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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post #5 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

And by 215, he has forecast Android and Apple to control over 65 percent of the total smartphone market.

Yeah, I kinda agree with the above comments. We read everywhere that "Android is...." this and that of the market compared to Apple.

The reality is that Apple makes an iPhone smartphone (that makes a ton of profit) with iOS software. Android is a free piece of software given to smartphone manufacturers who make handsets that don't make a ton of profit and are totally scattered.

But yet the media is ALWAYS placing them at the same level.

I guess the media plays this numbers game because they figure whoever will end up with the most market share will win in the end?

I just find the media gives Google and Android too much credit on par with Apple when they're just not there.
post #6 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


... And by 215, he has forecast Android and Apple to control over 65 percent of the total smartphone market.

Wow! You have to be good to predict the mix of phone sales over two hundred years after the cataclysim that is coming in 2012. (At least that is the only reason I can see for restarting the calendar any time soon...)

But seriously, how can you predict with any kind of precision even 3-4 years? Things are too fluid.
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post #7 of 28
From USATODAY:

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...B_N.htm?csp=hf

"ILounge, a website devoted to Apple products, reminded Internet surfers about antenna problems that first surfaced for the iPhone 4 when it was released in June for AT&T's network. The antenna problem is actually "worse" with the Verizon phone, iLounge says, causing both dropped calls and dropped Wi-Fi."
post #8 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Logisticaldron View Post

Why do people keep putting a complete HW product up against an OS. Why not say "iOS for iPhone + Android for smartphones”? That is what we’re talking about and that is more clear. I qualified with iPhone and smartphones because i don’t think they are including anything else.

They are using the same Mac vs Windows analogy.
post #9 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by noexpectations View Post

From USATODAY:

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...B_N.htm?csp=hf

"ILounge, a website devoted to Apple products, reminded Internet surfers about antenna problems that first surfaced for the iPhone 4 when it was released in June for AT&T's network. The antenna problem is actually "worse" with the Verizon phone, iLounge says, causing both dropped calls and dropped Wi-Fi."

http://techcrunch.com/2011/02/08/ver...phone-antenna/
post #10 of 28
cnn is reporting that there are few in lines for the launch

http://www.cnn.com/2011/TECH/mobile/...ex.html?hpt=C1
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post #11 of 28
Share, schmare. Profitability is where it's at!
post #12 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by noexpectations View Post

From USATODAY:

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...B_N.htm?csp=hf

"ILounge, a website devoted to Apple products, reminded Internet surfers about antenna problems that first surfaced for the iPhone 4 when it was released in June for AT&T's network. The antenna problem is actually "worse" with the Verizon phone, iLounge says, causing both dropped calls and dropped Wi-Fi."

jeez! (supposing it's true) How is this kind of shit not being caught at development?
post #13 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by tzeshan View Post

They are using the same Mac vs Windows analogy.

Or, in other words, engaging in the fallacy of hasty generalization.
post #14 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pooch View Post

cnn is reporting that there are few in lines for the launch

http://www.cnn.com/2011/TECH/mobile/...ex.html?hpt=C1

Most people are smart. Most are waiting for the iPhone 5 to come out in 4 months. Will it have HSPA+ (14.4mb)?.....CDMA (3mb)?.....LTE(concurrent voice/data for both AT&T and Verizon)? Safer to wait.
post #15 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by noexpectations View Post

Most people are smart. Most are waiting for the iPhone 5 to come out in 4 months. Will it have HSPA+ (14.4mb)?.....CDMA (3mb)?.....LTE(concurrent voice/data for both AT&T and Verizon)? Safer to wait.

Rumor has it the iPhone 5, if it comes in June, will not be LTE for the simple fact that the LTE network is in its infant stages. Why introduce a phone with LTE tech if hardly anyone can use it?

Second, I also hear that a phone will have a hard time switching from LTE to 3G back to LTE without some sort of service interuption.

With LTE no where near where I live, there is no reason for me to get an LTE iPhone. I just got the iPhone for Verizon and I feel like a kid on Christmas. It's an awesome phone and IF the iPhone 5 does debut in June, it does not change the fact that the iPhone 4 is still a remarkable device.
post #16 of 28
Verizon iPhone sales will be by the high end of the Android customer base. The rest will be happy with... well an Android phone.
post #17 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

jeez! (supposing it's true) How is this kind of shit not being caught at development?

How about you put your phone between your thighs and then complain you can't get reception?

These tests about signal drop are absurd.
post #18 of 28
These kind of analyst reports are useless!
post #19 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by kerryb View Post

Verizon iPhone sales will be by the high end of the Android customer base. The rest will be happy with... well an Android phone.

Verizon now has a 3-tiered phone lineup, with iPhone at the top. Naturally.

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post #20 of 28
Market share is important for developers and developers ensure there are cool apps to ensure profitabilty. So they are relates.
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post #21 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by noexpectations View Post

From USATODAY:

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...B_N.htm?csp=hf

"ILounge, a website devoted to Apple products, reminded Internet surfers about antenna problems that first surfaced for the iPhone 4 when it was released in June for AT&T's network. The antenna problem is actually "worse" with the Verizon phone, iLounge says, causing both dropped calls and dropped Wi-Fi."

Sounds like iLounge needs to improve their web traffic. Maybe if AOL bought them it would help. Just ask the Engadget guys.

Consumer reports, who famously did not recommend the AT&T version of iPhone 4, have lavished praise on the Verizon iPhone 4. (And I don't want to hear any talk of payola either here, folks.)

http://blogs.consumerreports.org/ele...y-reviews.html

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post #22 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

How about you put your phone between your thighs and then complain you can't get reception?

These tests about signal drop are absurd.

What? Phone between my thighs? What the hell are you talking about?
post #23 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

jeez! (supposing it's true) How is this kind of shit not being caught at development?

jeez! supposing it's not true and just being said to generate web traffic. Why are these stories even allowed to be published?

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post #24 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheff View Post

Market share is important for developers and developers ensure there are cool apps to ensure profitabilty. So they are relates.

Profitability also matters to developers. As long as developers can make more money writing apps for iOS, they will largely prefer that platform.This is not only a function of marketshare but the distribution model (paid app v. ad supported). This might change in the future but for now the App Store seems to be where the money is for developers.
post #25 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by SockRolid View Post

Verizon now has a 3-tiered phone lineup, with iPhone at the top. Naturally.


LOL. The iPhone isn't considered a "smartphone" according to Verizon. It's in a class of its own
post #26 of 28
Some background:

I owned an iPhone 3G and then a 3GS while living in Philly. I loved the phone, but had constant dropped calls (sitting still, outside with full bars on the phone). My 3GS was stolen about 4 months into my contract and I decided that, if I had to pay full price, I didn't want to stick with AT&T. The timing was right as Verizon just released the Motorola Droid. I had been a happy Verizon customer for years prior to the iPhone coming out, so I payed the early termination fee and bought the Droid.

I wouldn't say it was love at first sight, but I came to love the Droid and the improvements to the OS over the course of the next year. The search capability on the Droid was my favorite feature. Click thee search button, say Calumet Photo and the first response was my local store with a handy button to place a call!

But, I am a business user and found two shortcomings in Android. First was the lack of strong MS Exchange support. I was annoyed to have to use multiple applications for email, but got used to it. Then, I found Touchdown for Exchange. What a great product and some very talented, responsive developers.

Second problem is the lack of NTLM support in the Safari Mobile browser. We have two web apps, Sharepoint and Nearpoint (an MS Exchange archiving tool) that I access frequently when on the road. The inability of the Droid to login to either site was frustrating, but not nearly as much as the lack of a response from Google from the many forum posts on the subject.

So, last week, 6 months before I was supposed to be eligible for an upgrade, I checked my Verizon account, just for fun...and guess what? They said I could upgrade for the reduced price! My new iPhone showed up on Monday the 7th and I quickly set it up before heading to New York to see Prince. My girlfriend has an iPhone 4 on AT&T, so we did a bunch of Internet browsing tests...hate to say it, but the Verizon phone beat it in every test! She is not a happy camper and refuses to discuss it now!

The native support for Exchange, the unified Inbox and the support of NTLM all made for a very nice transition. I'm a little disappointed in the search capability, though. I find that I have to press/tap too many times to get what I need. I did download the Google App and the voice search is good, but still not as good as on the Droid.

I think I'm happy with my decision...I think! Time will tell, but as long as I have my Kindle App, Angry Birds and can manage my emails in one app, I'm pretty happy.
post #27 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheff View Post

Market share is important for developers and developers ensure there are cool apps to ensure profitabilty. So they are relates.

And if the Android marketplace isn't profitable? An "open" OS sold to a bunch of people who don't believe in paying for software isn't going to support a lot of developers.

Google itself is "unhappy" with the state of the marketplace. It's filled with tons of crappy apps that manage to hide the very few gems. Despite Android's parity in market share, by all reports actual sales are a fraction of those for iOS.
post #28 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahmlco View Post

And if the Android marketplace isn't profitable? An "open" OS sold to a bunch of people who don't believe in paying for software isn't going to support a lot of developers.

Google itself is "unhappy" with the state of the marketplace. It's filled with tons of crappy apps that manage to hide the very few gems. Despite Android's parity in market share, by all reports actual sales are a fraction of those for iOS.

Just visited App Store on my iPhone. Here's what I could find without searching:

Sexybooth+
Finger Cutter
Paul
Talking Babies
Doodle Dumps
Talking Tom Cat
90 in 1: APPZILLA
The Moron Test
BaldBooth
AgingBooth
Ringtone Designer
JobJuice Marketing
Photo Captions Premium
PANASCOUT
Killer Apps
Viber
Cat Physics

Where are the "gems"?
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