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Survey of first Verizon iPhone 4 buyers finds limited AT&T cannibalization

post #1 of 20
Thread Starter 
A small survey of 40 Verizon iPhone 4 buyers on launch day found that just 8 percent were previously AT&T customers, compared to 18 percent with Sprint and 13 percent with T-Mobile.

The sampling revealed Thursday by analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray offers a look at early adopters of the Verizon iPhone, who were polled in New York and Minneapolis. Munster noted that his sample size was smaller than with previous launches on AT&T because lines were shorter than usual for the first day of sales.

Of those polled, 63 percent indicated they are already Verizon customers. Just 8 percent were switching from AT&T -- less than the 18 percent switching from Sprint and 13 percent from T-Mobile.

Those buying a Verizon iPhone 4 on day one are mostly new to the platform. Just 8 percent of buyers were upgrading from an older iPhone, as the handset was previously exclusive to AT&T in the U.S.

Of the rest, 28 percent were switching from Research in Motion's BlackBerry platform, 13 percent were making the jump from Google Android, and 8 percent were coming from Nokia phones. The remaining 45 percent were switching from other phones, including "feature phones" that are not as powerful or connected as modern smartphones.



A quarter of early adopters polled by Piper Jaffray already own an iPad. Of the 75 percent that do not own Apple's touchscreen tablet, 43 percent indicated they are likely to buy one in the next 12 months.

Fewer of Verzon's first-day customers opted for the high-end 32GB capacity iPhone 4 than AT&T customers when the GSM model launched in June 2010. Only 28 percent of buyers on Thursday purchased the 32GB model, compared to 54 percent on AT&T last June.

Because the small survey shows signs of limited cannibalization of AT&T iPhone customers, Munster said his initial estimates of a 22 percent reduction in iPhones on AT&T could be too aggressive. He is currently calling for sales of 2.9 million iPhones on AT&T's network in the quarter, but said that number will likely go higher if the survey proves accurate.

The survey also paints a slightly different picture than an initial poll revealed in January, and conducted just before the Verizon iPhone announcement. ChangeWave found, in a much larger sampling of 4,050 U.S. wireless customers, that 16 percent of AT&T customers said they would be likely to switch to Verizon.
post #2 of 20
The first 4 buyers? Why didn't they survey all 8?

jk
post #3 of 20
Although the lines on Verizon iPhone launch for everyone were short, shouldn't there have been a larger sampling? Those percentages will only last as long until the next 40 iPhone customers are surveyed!

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post #4 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

A small survey of 40 Verizon iPhone 4 buyers on launch day found that just 8 percent were previously AT&T customers, compared to 18 percent with Sprint and 13 percent with T-Mobile.

The sampling revealed Thursday by analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray offers a look at early adopters of the Verizon iPhone, who were polled in New York and Minneapolis. Munster noted that his sample size was smaller than with previous launches on AT&T because lines were shorter than usual for the first day of sales.

Of those polled, 63 percent indicated they are already Verizon customers. Just 8 percent were switching from AT&T -- less than the 18 percent switching from Sprint and 13 percent from T-Mobile.

Those buying a Verizon iPhone 4 on day one are mostly new to the platform. Just 8 percent of buyers were upgrading from an older iPhone, as the handset was previously exclusive to AT&T in the U.S.

Of the rest, 28 percent were switching from Research in Motion's BlackBerry platform, 13 percent were making the jump from Google Android, and 8 percent were coming from Nokia phones. The remaining 45 percent were switching from other phones, including "feature phones" that are not as powerful or connected as modern smartphones.



A quarter of early adopters polled by Piper Jaffray already own an iPad. Of the 75 percent that do not own Apple's touchscreen tablet, 43 percent indicated they are likely to buy one in the next 12 months.

Fewer of Verzon's first-day customers opted for the high-end 32GB capacity iPhone 4 than AT&T customers when the GSM model launched in June 2010. Only 28 percent of buyers on Thursday purchased the 32GB model, compared to 54 percent on AT&T last June.

Because the small survey shows signs of limited cannibalization of AT&T iPhone customers, Munster said his initial estimates of a 22 percent reduction in iPhones on AT&T could be too aggressive. He is currently calling for sales of 2.9 million iPhones on AT&T's network in the quarter, but said that number will likely go higher if the survey proves accurate.

The survey also paints a slightly different picture than an initial poll revealed in January, and conducted just before the Verizon iPhone announcement. ChangeWave found, in a much larger sampling of 4,050 U.S. wireless customers, that 16 percent of AT&T customers said they would be likely to switch to Verizon.

Why not just 3 people instead of doing some bizarre rounding in a totally meaningless survey they represents absolutely nothing about anything outside of the group of people willing to talk to him in a store.

Maybe I am wrong and he did find .2 of people.
post #5 of 20
$350 ETF.. These are still tough times to be wasting money.
post #6 of 20
I just want to know the churn in NYC and SF.
post #7 of 20
There are so many people still locked into contracts that the amount of people who switch is going to be unknowable for a few years.
post #8 of 20
I think the percentage will be larger (AT&T --> VZW) when the next iPhone comes out. AT&T iPhone owners are waiting for:

1. Their contracts to be up.
2. LTE iPhone and/or iPhone 5.

... and there are, of course, going to be many people who are happy and won't switch.
post #9 of 20
I think I just heard a sign of relief from AT&T...

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post #10 of 20
This article is a complete waste of time. If the author had any knowledge of even the most basic statistics, you wouldn't have wasted electricity to write conclusions based on a 40 person sample size. What a joke.
post #11 of 20
This is the second waste of time article that I've read from you folk today. How about the percentage of existing customers that wanted an iPhone but Verizon wouldn't come off the BS? A HUGE percentage I bet. So we stay Android. And some of us will even WHEN we can get an iPhone. I lost my interest in it. I have a Mac that I love! I have an Alien running Windows. I am dead center. Verizon has a better service to me, but iPhone will never be a phone that I want again.
post #12 of 20
Who wants to break their contract to buy the same phone over again?
post #13 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Masteric View Post

I think the percentage will be larger (AT&T --> VZW) when the next iPhone comes out. AT&T iPhone owners are waiting for:

1. Their contracts to be up.
2. LTE iPhone and/or iPhone 5.

... and there are, of course, going to be many people who are happy and won't switch.


From everything I've read, iPhone 5 will NOT be LTE (4G).
post #14 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post

I think I just heard a sign of relief from AT&T...

Not sure a 40 person sample is easing the mind of anyone at AT&T.

Personally, I find it ridiculous that this is news!
post #15 of 20
What another post off of stupid comments by whack-job Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray. Does he own stock in Apple insider? This guy is never close and constantly spouts useless information. 40 people surveyed? Well I'm sure the clients of Piper Jaffray are really well taken care of. AI PLEASE STOP blogging about this crack-pot.
post #16 of 20
Yes 40 people sampling is small but why should people be in a hurry to switch carriers if they already have an iPhone? I can see sprint and t-mobile wanting to jump ship because those guys don't have them.

I havent had many problems with AT&T and many iPhone users in AT&T will simply wait for their contracts to run out if they want to switch and hopefully get the iPhone 5 in the process.
post #17 of 20
I surveyed 2 people today, one with a Mac, one with a PC. I can only assume the Mac has reached a 50% worldwide marketshare... and that all Mac users are better looking.

It seems these survey makers have a hypothesis and try to justify them with surveys rather than extract data from surveys conducted with random samplings.

Without using a survey, you could guess that a lot of people won't switch from a carrier quickly. Verizon won't be the better carrier in all areas, nor have the best prices. People will also be locked into lengthy contracts (which AT&T have openly been quite smug about) and some will be waiting for the next iPhone before renewing a lengthy contract.

No doubt one of the carriers will let us know eventually anyway.
post #18 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by asw02 View Post

This article is a complete waste of time. If the author had any knowledge of even the most basic statistics, you wouldn't have wasted electricity to write conclusions based on a 40 person sample size. What a joke.

ditto

a 40 person sample size (among the other problems with just taking the first people in line) is, indeed, a joke.

meaningless.
post #19 of 20
If I read that correctly, only 8% are iPhone owners. 92% are new customers. I think Apple was expecting that, but it may have worked out even better than they hoped initially.

Switching from AT&T will probably happen when contracts are up, so more gradually. A poll of 40 is pretty small, but probably tells about initial purchasers.
post #20 of 20
What kind of "story" is this? This is a joke. Seriously - 40 people surveyed!!! Way to get the story out AppleInsider...lol.
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