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Nokia ditches Symbian, embraces Microsoft Windows Phone for new handsets - Page 4

post #121 of 266
2/11/11 at 1:49pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Maybe not now, but the best case scenario for Nokia (baring some kind of exclusivity deal) is that their phone mojo turns WP7 into a big seller. At which point of course HTC commences making WP7 phones, as does Samsung, Motorola, et al. Which is why I think an exclusive deal is the only way this actually works for Nokia. As it stands, even if they win, they lose.

While I tend to agree with your assessment, it will likely be 'Windows Phone 7 for Nokia' rather than the version we're seeing now. Microsoft have effectively fragmented their own OS. They can also choose to provide less support for the multi-handset version.

A formal agreement is better, since Microsoft can't really be trusted here. It seems that this is presented as Nokia buying time until they can compete, but WP7 is going to be their main solution going forward. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. If only someone better than Balmer was at the helm at Microsoft, I'd actually give this venture a chance.
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post #122 of 266
2/11/11 at 2:01pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robodude View Post

While I tend to agree with your assessment, it will likely be 'Windows Phone 7 for Nokia' rather than the version we're seeing now. Microsoft have effectively fragmented their own OS. They can also choose to provide less support for the multi-handset version.

A formal agreement is better, since Microsoft can't really be trusted here. It seems that this is presented as Nokia buying time until they can compete, but WP7 is going to be their main solution going forward. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. If only someone better than Balmer was at the helm at Microsoft, I'd actually give this venture a chance.

Yeah, agreed. There's some real potential in coupling WP7 (which at least looks promising) with Nokia's proven (if slightly eccentric) hardware chops. In a world of cookie cutter Android phones, MS-Nokia phones could be very distinctive.

But that's only if Balmer can play ball forthrightly and not run some sort of Machiavellian scheme that's too clever by half that ends up just screwing everything up. Like trying to get access to Nokia's IP so they can bring phone manufacturing in-house, or at least giving Nokia that impression. It's worrisome, because Nokia is clearly the weak partner here and MS may feel like they can pretty much do with them as they will.
They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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post #123 of 266
2/11/11 at 2:17pm
Merge → semantics You know what I meant. It's much more than "merely" a license at this scale.

As for the rest.. I'm inclined say the market, at least in the US, has hit saturation with Android and IOS having many already locked into a 2 year contract-- explaining( at least partially) the slow start with WP7. As you said, this "license" will open distribution channels, and offer worldwide mindshare where Nokia's name still counts. People are probably still wary of MSoft in the wireless market (rightfully so) I'm looking at you, Kin.. it's gonna take some time but it's coming.

The rest of your conjecture is open to debate but I seriously doubt we'll be seeing a whole lot of foot dragging and with the new base of operations being in California, you can probably forget the Xenophobic/ nationalistic argument.


Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Man, if you're going to start out by belittling people who don't see this as a slam dunk as being deluded fanboys, you might want to tone down the blind faith.

First of all, the two companies aren't "merging", Nokia is merely going to become a licensee of WP7, with some reciprocal technology thrown in to sweeten the deal.

Secondly, WP7 hasn't done much in the market to date. Is that because of lackluster hardware, relatively few distribution channels, poor marketing, or does the OS not appeal to consumers (or at least not enough to sway them from the obvious choices)? Hard to say, but on the hardware front, at least, WP7 is running on the same kit as some pretty successful Android phones, so it doesn't seem likely that that's a huge problem.

So Nokia brings distribution channels, name recognition, and at least competitive hardware to the table. And maps, I guess. But against that you have two extremely set-in-their-ways companies who are famously stubborn about their products, one of which has the added bonus of being extremely nationalistic not to say xenophobic.

So if there is going to be any actual synergy, where elements of each company's strengths blend to make something greater than the parts, there's going to have to be an unprecedented level of cooperation. Given their relative status as going concerns, it looks like Nokia is going to have to do most of the compromising. Will they be able to manage that? Will there be mass defections of key players? Foot dragging by middle management that only shows up as mysteriously poor execution? Certainly likely enough to make any rosy talk of inevitable competitiveness pretty unpersuasive, and that's before we even get to the desirability of the product, which by no means is a given.
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post #124 of 266
2/11/11 at 2:18pm
This decision might have more to do with Microsoft and HP than Microsoft and Nokia. If you remember, the perceived wisdom (i.e. What worked for Apple) is that you have to control hardware software and store. Microsoft looked to HP to deliver the hardware partnership with the HP Slate - remember Steve Ballmer holding one up pre-iPad? What actually happened is that HP also had the same conclusion and decided to go with webOS instead. And now we see HP releasing the Pre3 and the TouchPad. Annoyed, Microsoft could threaten to remove the license to Windows from HP. HP's response? - to indicate that they might put webOS on their PCs... So HP clearly decided to control their own destiny and take their chances. A BIG call considering that they are struggling to get webOS traction, but it certainly is an easier path in some ways. Microsoft now need a hardware partner for their reasonably promising WP7 software (yes I have used it), considering most OEMs have hooked up with Android. Nokia or RIM were basically the choices. There MAY be an interim tablet solution around Meego until WP7 is upgraded for tablets - Windows Honeycomb, you might say. in the meantime, Nokia can push out more WP7 smart phones, which are needed by both partners to firm up their position in the mix prior to releasing a tablet. So the bets are: can Nokia plus Microsoft execute fast enough? Can HP establish webOS? Will RIM improve the coherence and quality of their platform and hardware quick enough? Or will this really be a twomhorse race between iOS and Android?
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post #125 of 266
2/11/11 at 2:25pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boogerman2000 View Post

Merge → semantics You know what I meant. It's much more than "merely" a license at this scale.

As for the rest.. I'm inclined say the market, at least in the US, has hit saturation with Android and IOS having many already locked into a 2 year contract-- explaining( at least partially) the slow start with WP7. As you said, this "license" will open distribution channels, and offer worldwide mindshare where Nokia's name still counts. People are probably still be wary of MSoft in the wireless market (rightfully so) I'm looking at you, Kin.. it's gonna take some time but it's coming.

The rest of your conjecture is open to debate but I seriously doubt we'll be seeing a whole lot of foot dragging and with the new base of operations being in California, you can probably forget the Xenophobic/ nationalistic argument.

Cooperation between extremely disparate corporate cultures is tricky. Moving the HQ or changing leadership is the least of it; you've got all those employees who might not be so sanguine. For instance, I see that just today over a thousand Nokia employees staged a walkout to protest the decision to use WP7. Now, a lot of those people are likely to lose their jobs anyway in the coming downsizing, but the entire reason Nokia is what it is and makes any kind of partner for MS is because of its people-- not some random portfolio of device designs.

If those people aren't motivated to perform, what do you have? They could hire all new people at the all new California facility, but what's the point of that? Why even get Nokia involved, if you're going to be working with a new labor force? It's not like Nokia's management has particularly distinguished themselves as reliable stewards of the technology, as of late.
They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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post #126 of 266
2/11/11 at 2:51pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Cooperation between extremely disparate corporate cultures is tricky. Moving the HQ or changing leadership is the least of it; you've got all those employees who might not be so sanguine. For instance, I see that just today over a thousand Nokia employees staged a walkout to protest the decision to use WP7. Now, a lot of those people are likely to lose their jobs anyway in the coming downsizing, but the entire reason Nokia is what it is and makes any kind of partner for MS is because of its people-- not some random portfolio of device designs.

If those people aren't motivated to perform, what do you have? They could hire all new people at the all new California facility, but what's the point of that? Why even get Nokia involved, if you're going to be working with a new labor force? It's not like Nokia's management has particularly distinguished themselves as reliable stewards of the technology, as of late.

It's a restructuring of monumental proportions as far as nokia is concerned with many decisions surly made, and yet to be made with a great deal of consternation regarding the pride of Finland.

Check this out http://www.engadget.com/2011/02/11/e...cept-revealed/
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post #127 of 266
2/11/11 at 2:52pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfanning View Post

Intel entered into MeeGo knowing that all the previous Maemo devices, and a tonne of other Nokia phones ran ARM, they weren't going to get their chips on the phones, they were going to get leverage off Nokias sales.

I really doubt Intel saw it that way.

Read Tomi Ahonen's rant from the previous link. Like me, he sees Intel as the biggest looser here. Given that he was the former president of Nokia when Intel and Nokia combined Maemo and Moblin to form MeeGo, I think he has a good understanding of what the plan for MeeGo was. This was an opportunity for Intel to get its x86 chips into a smartphone. It may not have been planned until Atoms are fabbed at the 32nm or 22nm process node but I think that was Intel's intent and desire when they partner with Nokia to develop Meego. That'll never happen now.

Perhaps Nokia will release a tablet with MeeGo that runs on an Atom cpu but I'm not holding my breadth.
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post #128 of 266
2/11/11 at 3:28pm
This might present Apple with a chance to pick up some really good hardware engineers. Whatever Nokia's problems, they do have some serious talent in hardware.
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post #129 of 266
2/11/11 at 4:28pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

So one declining giant embracing another.....

Haha! Oh, you aren't talking about HP and Palm.
"And just like that, everyone here realizes you're just another sweaty little Google licker with an axe to grind and no idea what he's talking about." --addabox
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"And just like that, everyone here realizes you're just another sweaty little Google licker with an axe to grind and no idea what he's talking about." --addabox
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post #130 of 266
2/11/11 at 4:31pm
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"Ecosystems thrive when fueled by speed, innovation and scale. The partnership announced today provides incredible scale, vast expertise in hardware and software innovation and a proven ability to execute." (stated Ballmer)

Breaking this down, bullet point by bullet point:
  1. What ecosystem does either MS or Nokia bring to the game?
  2. With MS this late to the game, how can he brag about any kind of speed?
  3. And to exactly what innovation outside Apple's does Ballmer or Elop bring to this partnership?
  4. Regarding scale, I guess Fatso Steve tips the scales a bit more than lean, mean Jobs.
  5. Incredible scale: What economies of scale can Nokia provide that Apple hasn't already closed off?
  6. Vast expertise in what? Waiting to see what Apple does and reverse-engineer it? MS hasn't innovated since Gates planed a cross between a spruce and birch tree in front of his mansion.
  7. Software innovation - what kind of crack is Ballmer smoking if he thinks that either firm brings innovative software to this partnership?
  8. Proven ability to execute what? Top level managers? Done on both sides. Marketing plans? Right, just like the Zune and Kin. Creating "must have" products that don't rely on kickbacks from IT managers? What was the last MS (or Nokia) product that felt like it was an extension of your own brain and body?

I guess Ballmer had to say something zingy but that sentence was an absolute fail in so many ways.
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post #131 of 266
2/11/11 at 4:33pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boogerman2000 View Post

It's a restructuring of monumental proportions as far as nokia is concerned with many decisions surly made

And here I thought Ballmer was the surly one!
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post #132 of 266
2/11/11 at 4:39pm
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Originally Posted by MJ Web View Post

Yeskia is perfect name for Steve Bummer's new product

now that's funny!
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post #133 of 266
2/11/11 at 4:54pm
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Originally Posted by Ecphorizer View Post

And here I thought Ballmer was the surly one!

.. Have to leave it..

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post #134 of 266
2/11/11 at 5:22pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfanning View Post

Intel entered into MeeGo knowing that all the previous Maemo devices, and a tonne of other Nokia phones ran ARM, they weren't going to get their chips on the phones, they were going to get leverage off Nokias sales.

While it's true that Intel knew about all the older phones, that isn't the way it was supposed to be working out in the future. This was a plan for both companies. Nokia would supposedly be getting a better OS, and Intel was going to sell its chips in the smartphone market.

http://www.computerworld.com/s/artic...artphone_plans

That WAS the idea. Now, it's smashed. We MAY be seeing a MeeGo phone at some point, perhaps to fulfill a contractual obligation. But it's dead otherwise.

Symbian, as far as it goes, is dead as well. Nokia is in the middle of a major contraction of smartphone sales because of this deal. Before, at least, their smartphone sales were going up at a decent clip, even though it was much below the smartphone industry's. This will drop that growth to a shrinkage. It's too bad really, but that's what's going to happen. We can see what the street thinks of this deal- terrible! About an 8% stock price drop Thursday, and about 16% Friday.
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post #135 of 266
2/11/11 at 5:31pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

I really doubt Intel saw it that way.

If Intel is ignorant to the fact that they don't have a CPU available for a tablet or phone then this announcment is the least of their worries

Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

Read Tomi Ahonen's rant from the previous link. Like me, he sees Intel as the biggest looser here. Given that he was the former president of Nokia when Intel and Nokia combined Maemo and Moblin to form MeeGo, I think he has a good understanding of what the plan for MeeGo was. This was an opportunity for Intel to get its x86 chips into a smartphone. It may not have been planned until Atoms are fabbed at the 32nm or 22nm process node but I think that was Intel's intent and desire when they partner with Nokia to develop Meego. That'll never happen now.

If he was a former president when they merged the project how would he have any more insight than most people writing comments here?

And I don't think the current Atoms have any place inside a tablet.

I agree with Tomi, I think this was the wrong thing to do, Nokia has made a backward step with this annoucement.
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post #136 of 266
2/11/11 at 5:31pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

I really doubt Intel saw it that way.

Read Tomi Ahonen's rant from the previous link. Like me, he sees Intel as the biggest looser here. Given that he was the former president of Nokia when Intel and Nokia combined Maemo and Moblin to form MeeGo, I think he has a good understanding of what the plan for MeeGo was. This was an opportunity for Intel to get its x86 chips into a smartphone. It may not have been planned until Atoms are fabbed at the 32nm or 22nm process node but I think that was Intel's intent and desire when they partner with Nokia to develop Meego. That'll never happen now.

Perhaps Nokia will release a tablet with MeeGo that runs on an Atom cpu but I'm not holding my breadth.

In reading what Ahonen wrote, I'm not feeling that even with his extensive experience in the field that he really understands what's going on these days.

While I see Intel, in the short run, at least, as a loser here, the obvious major loser is Nokia, no matter how it's looked at. Ahonen has his reasons for not wanting to think, or admit that Nokia is seriously damaged by this deal.

We're going to see Nokia's marketshare drop to 20% in smart phones, possibly 15%, or even lower.

I think Intel will do better than we think over time.

But Nokia now has no serious tablet plan. It's been pretty much agreed upon in the industry that tablets are tied to smartphones. Apple has that plan. HP has that plan. Google, to a lessor degree, has that plan, even RIM does. But Microsoft doesn't. And now that means that Nokia doesn't either.
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post #137 of 266
2/11/11 at 5:35pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

That WAS the idea. Now, it's smashed. We MAY be seeing a MeeGo phone at some point, perhaps to fulfill a contractual obligation. But it's dead otherwise.

That might have been Intels idea, but how where they going in this area? nowhere very fast.

Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Symbian, as far as it goes, is dead as well. Nokia is in the middle of a major contraction of smartphone sales because of this deal. Before, at least, their smartphone sales were going up at a decent clip, even though it was much below the smartphone industry's. This will drop that growth to a shrinkage. It's too bad really, but that's what's going to happen. We can see what the street thinks of this deal- terrible! About an 8% stock price drop Thursday, and about 16% Friday.

Well this is the deal the American shareholders wanted, then changed their minds when they got it.

This was the wrong decision for Nokia.
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post #138 of 266
2/11/11 at 5:52pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfanning View Post

If he was a former president when they merged the project how would he have any more insight than most people writing comments here?
....t.

Because he was involved with the decision. Are you really that obtuse?

As to whether Atom belongs in a smartphone, I agree that it's not a good choice at the moment. But who knows when they're fabbed at the 32 or 28 nm process node? But now Intel needs a mobile OS platform to champion their mobile chips.
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post #139 of 266
2/11/11 at 5:55pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfanning View Post

That might have been Intels idea, but how where they going in this area? nowhere very fast.

You can be sure it wasn't just Intel's idea, but a serious negotiation between themselves and Nokia. The fact that it won't now be working out is something else. Too bad, because if MeeGo had a good UI, it could have done fairly well, at least.

Quote:
Well this is the deal the American shareholders wanted, then changed their minds when they got it.

This was the wrong decision for Nokia.

Not really, a deal LIKE this was what all shareholders wanted, just not this deal. I don't agree with all of the reasoning behind it. I believe that Nokia could have managed some Android phones. At the same time, they could have reassured Symbian users that they wouldn't be left hanging at the edge of a cliff, by keeping Symbian in lower cost models for some years, at least.

I don't agree that being an Android OEM is worse than being a WP7 OEM. At least with Android, they could have tweaked the way they needed to be independent.

But, unless somehow the other WP7 OEM's get fed up with this deal, and leave, Nokia isn't much better off than any of the others. And sales WILL fall dramatically. They're also being killed at the low end by all of these local Chinese manufacturers. Their sales actually contracted last year because of this.

I think this deal will suck most of the value out of the company, unless investors do some serious thinking this weekend and change their minds.
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post #140 of 266
2/11/11 at 5:58pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

In reading what Ahonen wrote, I'm not feeling that even with his extensive experience in the field that he really understands what's going on these days.

While I see Intel, in the short run, at least, as a loser here, the obvious major loser is Nokia, no matter how it's looked at. Ahonen has his reasons for not wanting to think, or admit that Nokia is seriously damaged by this deal.

We're going to see Nokia's marketshare drop to 20% in smart phones, possibly 15%, or even lower.

I think Intel will do better than we think over time.

But Nokia now has no serious tablet plan. It's been pretty much agreed upon in the industry that tablets are tied to smartphones. Apple has that plan. HP has that plan. Google, to a lessor degree, has that plan, even RIM does. But Microsoft doesn't. And now that means that Nokia doesn't either.


I agree that he did seem a bit out of touch in that rant and it's hard to see an outcome where Nokia come out ahead. How did they do this deal with MS without an exclusive agreement to develop Win7 phones?

But it's pretty bad news for Intel as well and I really wonder what this means for the future of Atom. Its future in smart phones and tablets is uncertain and they face some stiff competition in net books from AMDs brazos chips. Oh, and the margins on Atoms are supposedly pretty slim.
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post #141 of 266
2/11/11 at 6:12pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

I agree that he did seem a bit out of touch in that rant and it's hard to see an outcome where Nokia come out ahead. How did they do this deal with MS without an exclusive agreement to develop Win7 phones?

But it's pretty bad news for Intel as well and I really wonder what this means for the future of Atom. Its future in smart phones and tablets is uncertain and they face some stiff competition in net books from AMDs brazos chips. Oh, and the margins on Atoms are supposedly pretty slim.

To go backwards, I'd say that, as usual, they have little to worry about from AMD. AMD has a big mouth, but little to back it up. AMD always promises great new products, but when, and if they arrive, they're almost never what was promised.

As Atom gets better, and arrives on a smaller fab, they will be competitive. Intel has time. There's talk of having Android available on Atom, and I've heard of some devices that have been seen with it. It's even possible that at some point in time, even Apple will find a use for it. Margins are always slimmest on the least expensive products.

I don't see how they could have come up with an exclusive deal. No doubt MS has multi-year deals with others. But, if those others see some exclusive features of their deal with Nokia, it might make them back out. the maps could be an area of contention. How would HTc and Samsung like to see Nokia maps on THEIR WP7 phones. Every time you go to the maps, you'd see "Nokia" on them. Some people would think that if Nokia makes the maps, and they like them, maybe they should try one of their phones next time.
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post #142 of 266
2/11/11 at 7:16pm
Hmmmm, another MS veteran appointed as Nokia's new president.

Matt Drance is calling it a "coup", and with this latest news I'm thinking he might be right. Top two guys at Nokia are now long term high ranking MS vets, new HQ in California, they make the WP7 deal. And just like that, Nokia is Microsoft's phone manufacturer.

Now we'll see if MS can run this in a way that doesn't gut Nokia and leave both parties with nothing but bitterness and failure. They have to allow Nokia a sense of autonomy and a seat at the table, or they won't have any company to exploit.
They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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post #143 of 266
2/11/11 at 7:22pm
This is the time to short sell Nokia stock.
Mac user since August 1983.
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Mac user since August 1983.
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post #144 of 266
2/11/11 at 7:56pm
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Originally Posted by mcarling View Post

This is the time to short sell Nokia stock.

Wednesday would have been even better.
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post #145 of 266
2/11/11 at 8:21pm
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Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

Because he was involved with the decision. Are you really that obtuse?

No I'm not, but if Tomi left Nokia in 2001, how did he manage to be a president of a Nokia department merging Maemo and Mobin in 2009?


I might be wrong, but the dates don't seem to match.

Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

As to whether Atom belongs in a smartphone, I agree that it's not a good choice at the moment. But who knows when they're fabbed at the 32 or 28 nm process node? But now Intel needs a mobile OS platform to champion their mobile chips.

At Intels current development speed of high perfermance, low power chips, I can't see anything happening from them in quite a while.
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post #146 of 266
2/11/11 at 8:26pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Not really, a deal LIKE this was what all shareholders wanted, just not this deal. I don't agree with all of the reasoning behind it. I believe that Nokia could have managed some Android phones. At the same time, they could have reassured Symbian users that they wouldn't be left hanging at the edge of a cliff, by keeping Symbian in lower cost models for some years, at least.

Personally I feel they should have continued with what they had planned, but they should have actually started managing it properly. The Symbian development team had too many staff. The proposals for Symbian/Meego with QT would have more than competed with the others in this space.

Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

I don't agree that being an Android OEM is worse than being a WP7 OEM. At least with Android, they could have tweaked the way they needed to be independent.

Android would have been a worse plan, I have nothing against Android, but there is too many manufacturers taking it on now.
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post #147 of 266
2/12/11 at 2:05am
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Originally Posted by mytdave View Post

I've played with WP7 and I don't like it at all. It has lots of eye-candy, but it's confusing, un-intuitive, and disjointed. Half the standard 'apps' I tried didn't work right or were useless. If this is the best they can do, then Apple has no worries from WP7.

Goes to show that no matter how great something is, it's still not for everyone. Just look at the number of people choosing an Android phone over and iPhone.




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Originally Posted by mstone View Post

By the time they can get a tablet released WinPhone 7 might even have copy and paste.

I'd say so. I'm pretty sure I read WP7 is getting c&p in a couple of weeks. I'd bet my house Microsoft\\Nokia won't have a tablet before the end of the month.
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post #148 of 266
2/12/11 at 2:25am
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

It's been pretty much agreed upon in the industry that tablets are tied to smartphones.

Bingo... and over the next couple of years tablets are tied to smart phones are tied to notebooks are tied to desktops are tied to TVs and all are tied to the cloud. Basically your digital life is accessible across all devices you own and consumers will expect and demand multiple form factors to access their information, which includes a tablet.


Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Apple has that plan. HP has that plan. Google, to a lessor degree, has that plan, even RIM does. But Microsoft doesn't.

I don't agree with that bit. They have a plan. Putting together the rumours it's even possible to guess what that plan is. What they are is not without a plan but very very late.
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post #149 of 266
2/12/11 at 5:26am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Archos View Post

Nokia is losing market share faster than IE! Its share of smartphones dropped from 47% to 38% just in the last year. And remember that Symbian had +80% share just a few years ago.

38% is still gigantic.

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Originally Posted by Archos View Post

Microsoft always took the majority of profits from Dell and HPs Windows PCs. It still does.

Of course Microsoft perfectly happy with this model. But the hardware manufacturers are not. What's the point in investing in a device only to get a 5% profit? This is why HP is distancing itself from MS.

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Originally Posted by Archos View Post

And right, when have you scheduled iPod to become a profitless commodity device? It's now ten years old. Apparently, your world view doesn't fit the facts.

The music-only iPod *is* heading towards commodity status.

Apple are remarkably good at fighting back at this trend. Partly by regular re-invention of the brand, and partly by excellent design. But we are seeing the music-only iPod play a smaller and smaller share of Apple's revenues. Remember that a good half of iPod profits are really iOS media / gaming devices.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Archos View Post

Non sensical rubbish. Nokia can't make high end phones that people want. Neither can MS, which couldn't launch a phone for kids tied to an expensive plan KIN, and couldn't launch an iPhone-class device WP7. That's not a matter of timing, it's a matter of not knowing what they're doing.

Nokia have always made quite good hardware. They have sold and continue to sell in gigantic numbers. The problem is they can not add value. They sell these devices for little more than the cost of components. The value add magic happens in the software. Nokia's dreadful user experience is valued by the market as worth less than "free" Android. And yet developing this dreadful value-slashing software is costing Nokia $4B a year!

I agree WP7 is still unproven.


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Originally Posted by Archos View Post

No, it's simply designed to serve as an ad platform rather than a good product.

It is.

But my point still stands. Android is a fast track to commodity status. Because any manufacturer can add it to their product for free. Any Android handset maker can match the user experience of any other with minimal effort. The competition in this space means that creating an Android handset with a $50 profit margin is becoming impossible. Nokia going to Android would be like leaping from one leaky ship into another.

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Originally Posted by Archos View Post

Yeah that worked out so well for Palm! They didn't have to develop Palm OS anymore and got all this new businesses... oh wait- they still had to spend money to support Palm OS, had to spend more to support WiMo, and their sales remained static.

I am not particularly optimistic that this will work out for Nokia either. It's a lifeline not a solution.

But they really didn't have any options left.

C.
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post #150 of 266
2/12/11 at 1:31pm
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Originally Posted by Carniphage View Post

And yet developing this dreadful value-slashing software is costing Nokia $4B a year!

What is your problem with numbers. Nokias entire R&D costs are $4 billion, of which around $1 is for Symbian. Yeah is is excessive, but not as bad as you constantly try and misrepresent it as.
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post #151 of 266
2/12/11 at 1:44pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfanning View Post

What is your problem with numbers. Nokias entire R&D costs are $4 billion, of which around $1 is for Symbian. Yeah is is excessive, but not as bad as you constantly try and misrepresent it as.

Okay. So the take out a giant magnifying glass, and tell us what that absurd amount of R&D cash is delivering?

a) A cellphone OS with the world's worst user experience. And which seems to actually lower the market value of Nokia smartphones.

b) Let's not forget a second "tablet" OS which has yet to materialise.

c) Let's not forget S40. Which is a Nokia's third cellphone OS which seem to have been entirely forgotten.

d) And then there's cash invested in the development of numerous virtually identical lines which are barely distinguishable.

e) And there's Nokia's other business interests, which don't seem to contribute a penny to their profits.

Burning gigantic bonfire's of R&D cash in an irrational and uncontrolled way is not a sustainable strategy.

By "irrational" - I mean, by investing in research which does lead to profitable products.
By "uncontrolled" - I mean spending in quantities that are grossly disproportionate relative to similar businesses.

The plan from Nokia is to slash this absurdly high R&D budget. Not just Symbian.
Given the degree to which it is clearly wasted, is not a bad idea.

C.

Here's some numbers that I have no problem with:
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post #152 of 266
2/12/11 at 2:30pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniphage View Post

Okay. So the take out a giant magnifying glass, and tell us what that absurd amount of R&D cash is delivering?

Long story short, you made a claim, you were proved wrong, you have a hard time accepting this.

Nokia is kind enough to split these figures by operating company, why you have an issue with this I don't know. May I ask how NSN researching better ways to handle microwwave transmissions is going to help S40 run faster or cheaper?
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post #153 of 266
2/12/11 at 2:32pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfanning View Post

Long story short, you made a claim, you were proved wrong, you have a hard time accepting this.

Once again, you confuse what I wrote, with what you imagined I wrote.

C.
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post #154 of 266
2/12/11 at 3:14pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniphage View Post

And yet developing this dreadful value-slashing software is costing Nokia $4B a year!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniphage View Post

Once again, you confuse what I wrote, with what you imagined I wrote.

At the top is what you wrote, you will see the words "software" in there, that would lead me to believe you were referring to software.

Can you please clarlify what you meant by software if you were not talking about software?

Now, once you have explained that, can you please explain how you managed to get a $4 billion R&D cost for software alone when Nokias financial statements prove this covers more than just software.

Now, once you have explained all that, can you try and explain what I "imagined" you wrote?
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post #155 of 266
2/12/11 at 3:24pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfanning View Post

At the top is what you wrote, you will see the words "software" in there, that would lead me to believe you were referring to software.

Can you please clarlify what you meant by software if you were not talking about software?

Now, once you have explained that, can you please explain how you managed to get a $4 billion R&D cost for software alone when Nokias financial statements prove this covers more than just software.

Now, once you have explained all that, can you try and explain what I "imagined" you wrote?

As I said. Nokia's $4Bn gets them dreadful software.
And... which I forgot to mention ... a plethora of hardware lines which sell at little above cost.

Mea culpa!

However you dice it, this gigantic R&D spend, converts into to a non-existent return on investment.

If you have a different interpretation, please explain how this $4Bn R&D spend is rational or proportionate? Or put another way, if you were spending your own $4Bn. Would you not like to see something concrete for it?

C.
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post #156 of 266
2/12/11 at 3:58pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniphage View Post

As I said. Nokia's $4Bn gets them dreadful software.
And... which I forgot to mention ... a plethora of hardware lines which sell at little above cost.

Mea culpa!

However you dice it, this gigantic R&D spend, converts into to a non-existent return on investment.

If you have a different interpretation, please explain how this $4Bn R&D spend is rational or proportionate? Or put another way, if you were spending your own $4Bn. Would you not like to see something concrete for it?

C.

Again, another long story short, you made a claim, I proved you wrong, you are now upset.

Nokia's R&D may be high, but that doesn't excuse you from constanting incorrectly stating what it is, and what it is spent on. We know you hate Nokia, but the constant lies and incorrect information you post doesn't help your cause. Also remember, a large part of that $4 billion is spent in NSN, there isn't a direct relationship between NSN R&D and devices R&D
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post #157 of 266
2/12/11 at 4:07pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

Bingo... and over the next couple of years tablets are tied to smart phones are tied to notebooks are tied to desktops are tied to TVs and all are tied to the cloud. Basically your digital life is accessible across all devices you own and consumers will expect and demand multiple form factors to access their information, which includes a tablet.


I don't agree with that bit. They have a plan. Putting together the rumours it's even possible to guess what that plan is. What they are is not without a plan but very very late.

When I say they don't have a plan, it's because all they have is a negative plan. Ballmer said that they would NOT put WP7 on a tablet. If you regard that as a plan, then good luck to them. Their plan to continue to push Windows as a tablet OS is not a plan to integrate smart phones and tablets, which we both agree is required.

That's not a plan. It's a continued refusal to recognize that what they're doing isn't working.

But then, MS does have a very big problem which perhaps they recognize. Unlike Apple, with a Unix based iOS, and Google and HP, with a Linux distro, and now RIM, with QNX, all very powerful OS's, MS has CE as the basis of WP7, which is a much simpler phone/embedded OS.

It's that WP7 likely can't compete as a full powered tablet OS, considering where tablets are headed. They never contemplated using this for anything other than a phone, so they're stuck. In addition, of course, is that they still insist on that silly "Windows Everywhere" policy.

Nokia is going to suffer from this deal in a number of ways, and this is one of them.
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post #158 of 266
2/12/11 at 4:16pm
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Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Not really, a deal LIKE this was what all shareholders wanted, just not this deal. I don't agree with all of the reasoning behind it. I believe that Nokia could have managed some Android phones. At the same time, they could have reassured Symbian users that they wouldn't be left hanging at the edge of a cliff, by keeping Symbian in lower cost models for some years, at least.

I don't see the advantage of splitting everything among different OS and continuing to support Symbian when its clearly over.

Nokia is at a crisis point where they need to kill whatever isn't working and go through a major restructuring. They should have been making this transition for the past couple of years so that it would be gradual, but its too late for gradual now. They need to take immediate action.

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I don't agree that being an Android OEM is worse than being a WP7 OEM. At least with Android, they could have tweaked the way they needed to be independent.

I would agree if it only means that Nokia is making the same Windows phones as any one else can make. At this point everyone is enamored with Android, no one is really taking WP 7 all that seriously.

From what was announced MS will be working with Nokia much closer than they will any other OEM.

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But, unless somehow the other WP7 OEM's get fed up with this deal, and leave, Nokia isn't much better off than any of the others. And sales WILL fall dramatically. They're also being killed at the low end by all of these local Chinese manufacturers. Their sales actually contracted last year because of this.

I think this deal will suck most of the value out of the company, unless investors do some serious thinking this weekend and change their minds.

MS should by this point understand that WP 7 is not going to compete with Android in the commodity market. It needs to be something very different from everything else.

Nokia provides them with an opportunity to have the best of both worlds. A great hardware partner that makes many different phone across many different price points and the largest distribution channel of any mobile OEM. Together they can build a stable and congruent platform.

I agree with you that if MS continues to market WP as a commodity OS it will fail.
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post #159 of 266
2/12/11 at 4:22pm
There are several creative ways MS can extend exclusivity to Nokia. Its certainly not difficult to frustrate other OEM's enough that they stop producing Windows Phones.

As far as I can see few are excited about supporting it as it is.

Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I don't see how they could have come up with an exclusive deal. No doubt MS has multi-year deals with others. But, if those others see some exclusive features of their deal with Nokia, it might make them back out.
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post #160 of 266
2/12/11 at 4:32pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

But Nokia now has no serious tablet plan. It's been pretty much agreed upon in the industry that tablets are tied to smartphones. Apple has that plan. HP has that plan. Google, to a lessor degree, has that plan, even RIM does. But Microsoft doesn't. And now that means that Nokia doesn't either.

I agree that over the next two years tablets are about to be a huge business. They are about to create a huge transition in the PC market. Nokia will miss out on this transition.

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Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Nokia is going to suffer from this deal in a number of ways, and this is one of them.

I think MS will suffer much more than Nokia will. MS is about to completely miss the tablet explosion.

I think it would definitely expand Nokia's opportunities if they had a cogent tablet strategy. It definitely would be to their benefit if they participated in tablets.

I think tablets are going to more directly affect PC sales not phone sales. This year smartphones may outsell PC's. Nokia will continue to do very well if they can continue to be the largest mobile phone manufacturer in the world.

I think they should more concentrate getting their phone business back on track before they deal with tablets.
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  • Nokia ditches Symbian, embraces Microsoft Windows Phone for new handsets
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